MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Dip Deemed Corrective in Nature

Price Signal Summary – Gold Dip Deemed Corrective in Nature

• S&P E-Minis remains below last Wednesday's high of 4073.75. The recent pullback means that price has - so far - failed to remain above pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA - the EMA intersects at 4020.18. A clear upside break of it is required to strengthen bullish conditions. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain below last week’s 4164.00 high (Mar 22). The recent pullback threatens the recent bull theme and signals the end of what appears to have been a corrective bounce. A resumption of weakness would open 4009.50, 61.8% of the Mar 20 22 rally.
• EURUSD is trading above last Friday’s low of 1.0713 and key short-term resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high, remains intact. Attention is on support at 1.0712 (20-day EMA) and 1.0680 (50-day EMA). The trend direction in USDJPY is unchanged and remains down. The pair traded lower Friday, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The move down maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has pierced 129.75, 76.4% of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally. The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish - the recovery that started on Mar 10 still appears to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. The breach on Mar 17 of former resistance at $1959.7, Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started late September 2022. WTI futures traded sharply higher Monday. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $72.54. The break is a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at $75.12.
• Bund futures continue to trade above 134.80, the Mar 22 low. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 135.48 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. Gilt futures traded to a low of 102.84 on Mar 22. Price has recovered from this low. Sights are on 107.33, the Mar 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 107.78, the Feb 2 high on the continuation chart.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: First Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 3: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.0839/0930 High Mar 24 / 23
• PRICE: 1.0814 @ 05:44 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.0712 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0680 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger

EURUSD is trading above last Friday’s low of 1.0713 and key short-term resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high, remains intact. Attention is on support at 1.0712 (20-day EMA) and 1.0680 (50-day EMA). A break of this support zone would expose the recent low at 1.0516 on Mar 15. For bulls, clearance of 1.0930 would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a climb towards 1.1033, the Feb 2 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.2451 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.2344 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 1.2315 @ 06:06 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.2179 Low Mar 23 / 21
• SUP 2: 1.2152 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2113 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD is holding on to its recent gains and maintains a bullish tone. The pair has recently cleared a number of resistance points signalling scope for an extension higher. This has exposed 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The latter is a key medium-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.2179, the Mar 21 low, ahead of 1.2152, the 20-day EMA. A break of the EMA would be a bearish development.

EURGBP TECHS: S/T Outlook Appears Bullish Despite Recent Pullback

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8888 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8827 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 0.8776 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 0.8772 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP remains below last week’s high of 0.8866 (Mar 23). Recent gains have highlighted a bullish picture and attention is on a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8888. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support to watch has been defined at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 3: 133.51 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.00/133.02 High Mar 22 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.76 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 130.64 @ 06:50 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 129.75/64 76.4% of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally / Mar 27 low
• SUP 2: 129.12 High Feb 2
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY is unchanged and remains down. The pair traded lower Friday, reinforcing current bearish conditions. The move down maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has pierced 129.75, 76.4% of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally. A clear break would open 129.12, the Feb 2 low. Firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 133.02 where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 145.57 High Mar a2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 143.98 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle
• RES 1: 142.54/143.63 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 141.29 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 140.41/139.07 Low Mar 27 / 24
• SUP 2: 138.83 Low Mar 20 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.66 3.0% 10-dma envelope

EURJPY remains below last week’s high of 143.63 (Mar 22). This level represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. A continuation lower would expose key support at 138.83, the Mar 20 low and a bear trigger. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up - this suggests the latest pullback is a correction. A break of 143.63 would open 143.98, 76.4% of the Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle.

AUDUSD TECHS: Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.6760 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6687 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 0.6625 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish - the recovery that started on Mar 10 still appears to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 0.6760. A clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 2: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 1: 1.3805/3862 High Mar 24 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3639 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.3631 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.3598 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The current bear cycle in USDCAD is still considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. A key support area to watch lies at 1.3598, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.73 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 137.85/139.54 High Mar 27 / 24
• PRICE: 136.40 @ 05:11 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 135.80 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 135.48 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.80 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures continue to trade above 134.80, the Mar 22 low. A key support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 135.48 today, remains intact. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent retracement down appears to have been a correction and attention is on the 140.00 handle and key resistance at 140.30, the Mar 20 high and a bull trigger.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 121.290 High Dec 2 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 119.170/120.130 High Mar 27 / 24
• PRICE: 118.410 @ 05:19 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 117.920 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 117.705/300 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15

Support in Bobl futures at 117.300 remains intact, the Mar 22 low. An important pivot support lies at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 117.705. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would expose 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 120.610, the Mar 21 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm resistance is seen at 120.130, the Mar 24 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 107.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 106.315/695 High Mar 27 / 24
• PRICE: 106.005 @ 05:28 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 105.795 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 105.682 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.575 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures last week recovered from the Mar 22 low of 105.575. A key support lies at 105.682, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. For now, the recent move lower appears to be a correction. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.695, Friday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Support Holds - For Now

• RES 4: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 107.78 High Feb 2 (cont) a and a key resistance
• RES 2: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 1: 105.62/106.48 High Mar 27 / 76.4% of Mar 24 - 27 pullback
• PRICE: 104.86 @ Close Mar 27
• SUP 1: 103.93 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 103.71 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 102.84 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28

Gilt futures traded to a low of 102.84 on Mar 22. Price has recovered from this low. Sights are on 107.33, the Mar 20 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 107.78, the Feb 2 high on the continuation chart. On the downside, support to watch is at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.71. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Support Stays Intact For Now

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 115.99 @ Close Mar 27
• SUP 1: 114.58 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.15 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 4: 111.79 Low Mar 9

BTP futures traded higher last Friday to reach a marginal new weekly high of 117.17. The short-term outlook remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 118.18 next, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Initial firm support is seen at 114.58, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Remains Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4240.00 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 4184.50 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 bear leg
• RES 1: 4164.00 High Mar 22 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 4121.00 @ 06:28 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 4034.00 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 4009.00/3914.00 61.8% of the Mar 20 - 22 rally / Low Mar 20
• SUP 3: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain below last week’s 4164.00 high (Mar 22). The recent pullback threatens the recent bull theme and signals the end of what appears to have been a corrective bounce. A resumption of weakness would open 4009.50, 61.8% of the Mar 20 22 rally. A move below the 4000.00 handle would expose 3914.00, the Mar 21 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is 4164.00, the Mar 22 high. A break would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 2: 4089.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4021.50/4073.75 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4016.75 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 3937.00/3897.25 Low Mar 24 / 20
• SUP 2: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3778.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis remains below last Wednesday's high of 4073.75. The recent pullback means that price has - so far - failed to remain above pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA - the EMA intersects at 4020.18. A clear upside break of it is required to strengthen bullish conditions. Support lies at 3937.00, the Mar 24 low. A breach would open 3897.25 next, the Mar 20 low. Key short-term resistance is at 4073.75, the Mar 22 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Testing Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $84.00 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $82.83 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 2: $80.89 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $78.39/42 - 20-day EMA / High Mar 27
• PRICE: $77.77 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $72.68/70.12 - Low Mar 24 / Low Mar 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $64.62 - 1.382 projection of the Nov - Dec - Jan price swing

Brent futures traded higher Monday, extending the recovery from $70.12, the Mar 20 low. Price has arrived at the 20-da EMA which intersects at $78.39. This average represents a key short-term resistance, where a break is required to strengthen current bullish conditions and signal scope for a continuation higher. A clear breach would open $80.89, the 50-day EMA. Initial firm support lies at $72.68, the Mar 24 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Breaches The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $78.17 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $77.10 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 2: $75.12 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $73.10 - High Mar 27
• PRICE: $72.73 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $66.82/64.36 - Low Mar 24 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.41 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures traded sharply higher Monday. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $72.54. The break is a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at $75.12. This average represents the next key resistance point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $66.82, the Mar 24 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1955.7 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1919.4 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1883.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. The breach on Mar 17 of former resistance at $1959.7, Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started late September 2022. The test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 is seen as a firm support. It is the Mar 17 low and a break is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 3: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $23.524 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $23.008 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.416 - Low Nov 4

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low. The metal is holding on to its recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $22.091. The clear breach of this EMA strengthens bullish conditions. $23.520, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg, has been pierced. A clear break would open the $24.00 handle. On the downside, $22.157 marks initial firm support, the Mar 21 low.