MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Momentum Tilted Higher to New Record

Price Signal Summary – Gold Momentum Tilted Higher to New Record

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and yesterday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections are shallow - this is a bullish signal that highlights positive market sentiment. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and Thursday’s rally and fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment.
• Strong gains in GBPUSD this week has strengthened a short-term bullish theme and resulted in the break of a number of resistance points. This brings the bull trigger at 1.2827 into view, and multi-month highs. A sharp sell-off in USDJPY Thursday highlights a reversal of the recent rally between Dec 28 - Feb 13. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and is through support at the 50-day EMA - at 148.52. The clear break of this average strengthens the current bearish cycle. AUDUSD traded higher Thursday and remains firm as gains extend. The recovery threatens a recent bearish theme and price has cleared the 50-day EMA. Resistance at 0.6595, the Feb 22 high, has also been cleared and this strengthens a bullish theme.
• Gold remains firm on the back of its latest rally. The yellow metal has this week traded above resistance at $2135.4, the Dec 4 high to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $2177.6 next. The WTI futures trend condition remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of key resistance at $79.09, Jan 29 high, reinforces this theme. The clear break highlights potential for a continuation towards $81.70.
• Bund futures traded higher Thursday and in the process confirmed a clear break of resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 133.26. The clear break signals scope for an extension and opens 134.18 next the Feb 15 high. Gilt futures traded higher Thursday, extending the recovery from last week’s low. Resistance at 98.53, the Feb 26 high, has recently been cleared. The break eases recent bearish pressure and instead signals scope for a continuation higher near-term.

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.1084 High Dec 29
• RES 3: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 1: 1.0969 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
• PRICE: 1.0946 @ 05:52 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.0843 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10

EURUSD has traded higher this week and yesterday’s gains confirmed a clear breach of a key resistance at 1.0888, the Feb 22 high. The break higher highlights a stronger reversal off the YTD low of 1.0695 in February. Scope is seen for a continuation higher with the focus on 1.0969 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0843, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a top.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19 2023
• RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• RES 2: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2808 @ 06:07 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.2677/00 20-day EMA / Low Mar 1
• SUP 2: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 4: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase

Strong gains in GBPUSD this week has strengthened a short-term bullish theme and resulted in the break of a number of resistance points. This brings the bull trigger at 1.2827 into view, and multi-month highs. Clearance of this level would open 1.2881, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support is seen at 1.2677, the 20-day EMA. A move below this average would signal a possible top and open 1.2600, the Mar 1 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
• RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8547 @ 06:29 GMT Mar 08
• SUP 1: 0.8524 Low Mar 07
• SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023

EURGBP continues to trade inside a range and the cross remains below key resistance at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set up, highlighting a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open the bear trigger at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and signal scope for 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a break of 0.8578 would signal a reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Has Cleared The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 3: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 2: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 149.61 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 147.90 @ 06:44 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 147.53 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 146.83 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 4: 145.57 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bull cycle

A sharp sell-off in USDJPY Thursday highlights a reversal of the recent rally between Dec 28 - Feb 13. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and is through support at the 50-day EMA - at 148.52. The clear break of this average strengthens the current bearish cycle. Support at 147.63, the Feb 7 low, has been pierced. A clear break would open 146.83, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance to watch is at 149.61, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Exposes Trendline Support

• RES 4: 165.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 163.72 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 162.96 High Mar 6
• PRICE: 161.92 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 161.04/160.56 50-day EMA / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 160.30 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 7 low
• SUP 3: 158.92 Low Feb 7
• SUP 4: 158.08 Low Feb 1 and a key support

The trend condition in EURJPY remains up, however, a corrective cycle is in play and this suggests potential for a move lower near-term. Yesterday’s volatile session resulted in a move below the 20-day EMA and delivered a print below the 50-day EMA - at 161.04. A continuation lower would open a trendline support at 160.30. The trendline is drawn from the Dec 7 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 163.72, the Feb 26 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 0.6748 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 2: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.6657 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
• PRICE: 0.6636 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 0.6542 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6478/6443 Low Mar 5 / Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14

AUDUSD traded higher Thursday and remains firm as gains extend. The recovery threatens a recent bearish theme and price has cleared the 50-day EMA. Resistance at 0.6595, the Feb 22 high, has also been cleared and this strengthens a bullish theme, signalling scope for a continuation higher. 0.6625, the Jan 30 high, has been pierced. A clear break would open 0.6657, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support is at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Testing Support

• RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3516/3606 20-day EMA / High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.3442 @ 08:06 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5

USDCAD is trading lower today as the pair extends the short-term reversal from 1.3606, the Feb 28 high. The move lower is considered corrective - for now. Key support lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low and a break of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3441, the Feb 22 low. It has been tested. A clear breach would open 1.3359. The bull trigger is at 1.3606, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M4) Bear Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 135.44 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
• RES 2: 134.48 High Feb 5
• RES 1: 134.18 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 133.50 @ 05:29 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 132.36 Low Mar 5
• SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high

Bund futures traded higher Thursday and in the process confirmed a clear break of resistance at the 50-day EMA - at 133.26. The clear break signals scope for an extension and opens 134.18 next the Feb 15 high. Note that the break higher has also resulted in a bear channel breakout - drawn from the Dec 27 high. Clearance of 134.18 would open 134.78, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 131.23 the Feb 29 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 119.220 High May 5
• RES 3: 119.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15
• RES 1: 118.560 Low Feb 15 and a gap high on the daily chart
• PRICE: 118.330 @ 05:37 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 117.680 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 117.440 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 117.000 Round number support

A broader bearish cycle in Bobl futures is intact, however, a correction remains in play for now and this signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The contract has breached resistance at 118.270, the Feb 26 high. A continuation higher would open 118.790, the Feb 15 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 106.145 High Feb 15
• RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.985 High Feb 20
• RES 1: 105.915 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 105.830 @ 06:02 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 105.625 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 105.375 1.236 proj of the Feb 26 - 29 - Mar 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.280 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - 29 - Mar 5 price swing

The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact, however, for now a corrective cycle is in play. Resistance at 105.850, the Feb 26 high, has been cleared and this signals scope for a climb towards 105.985, the Feb 20 high. For bears, recent fresh cycle lows reinforce bearish conditions and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The bear trigger has been defined at 105.490, the Feb 29 low.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 100.55 2.236 retracement of the Feb 26 - 29 bear leg
• RES 3: 100.16 2.00 retracement of the Feb 26 - 29 bear leg
• RES 2: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 99.88 High Mar 8
• PRICE: 99.33 @ Close Mar 7
• SUP 1: 98.33/97.91 Low Mar 5 / 4
• SUP 2: 97.42 Low Mar 1
• SUP 3: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 96.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher Thursday, extending the recovery from last week’s low. Resistance at 98.53, the Feb 26 high, has recently been cleared. The break eases recent bearish pressure and instead signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. 99.00 has also been cleared and sights are on the 100.00 handle next. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 96.83, the Feb 29 low. Initial support is at 98.33, the Mar 5 low.

BTP TECHS: (M4) Has Cleared Resistance

• RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
• RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.05 High Mar 7
• PRICE: 119.46 @ Close Mar 7
• SUP 1: 117.75 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.52 Low Feb 29
• SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

BTP futures have traded higher this week resulting in a break of key short-term resistance at 118.81, the Jan 30 high. The clear break of this hurdle highlights a bullish reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. This has opened 120.65, the Dec 27 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 117.75, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Northbound

• RES 4: 5030.60 2.764 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 5022.10 Bull channel top drawn from the Oct 27 low
• RES 2: 5000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 4996.00 Intraday high
• PRICE:4989.00 @ 06:43 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 4841.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4757.00 Low Feb 19
• SUP 3: 4710.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4649.60 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 27 low

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and Thursday’s rally and fresh cycle high reinforces this theme. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on the psychological 5000.00 handle next. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards a bull channel top at 5022.10. The channel is drawn from the Oct 27 low. Initial firm support lies at 4841.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 5225.35 3.0% Bollinger Band
• RES 3: 5212.20 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 5200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5170.86 2.236 proj of the Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• PRICE: 5161.75 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: 5065.67 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4951.27 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4936.50 Low Feb 13
• SUP 4: 4866.00 Low Jan 31 and key support

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and yesterday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. Price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections are shallow - this is a bullish signal that highlights positive market sentiment. Support to watch is 5065.67, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal potential for a deeper retracement towards 4951.27, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on 5170.86, a Fibonacci projection.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K4) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $88.31 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $86.52 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $85.47 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $84.34 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $83.46 @ 07:07 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $80.84/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.80 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

A bullish trend structure in Brent futures remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. $83.65 is key resistance, the Jan 29 high. It was pierced last Friday. A clear break of it would cancel a bearish theme and instead signal a resumption of the bull cycle that has been in place since Dec 13. This would open $85.47, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial pivot support to watch lies at $80.84, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (J4) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $85.75 - High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.66 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $81.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $80.85 - High Mar 1
• PRICE: $79.55 @ 07:16 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $76.45/71.49 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.79 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.57 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Jun 12

The WTI futures trend condition remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The recent breach of key resistance at $79.09, Jan 29 high, reinforces this theme. The clear break highlights potential for a continuation towards $81.70, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is $76.45, the 50-day EMA. A break of the average would instead signal a possible top. The latest pullback is considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2177.6 - 1.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2164.8 - High Mar 7
• PRICE: $2160.5 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $2123.8/2088.5 - Low Mar 6 / High Dec 28
• SUP 2: $2068.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2042.4 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1984.3 Low Feb 14

Gold remains firm on the back of its latest rally. The yellow metal has this week traded above resistance at $2135.4, the Dec 4 high to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for a climb towards $2177.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term conditions are overbought, however, this does not appear to be a concern for bulls - for now. Initial firm support lies at $2088.5, the Dec 28 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Structure

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606 - High Dec 22
• RES 1: $24.505 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $24.467 @ 08:11 GMT Mar 8
• SUP 1: $23.088/21.883 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

Silver rallied sharply higher Monday and remains firm. The metal has this week cleared resistance at $23.534, the Jan 12 high and a reversal trigger. This cancels a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger rally above $24.00, towards $24.606, the Dec 22 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $23.088, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible reversal.