MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Price Action Highlights Corrective Cycle

Price Signal Summary – Gold Price Action Highlights Corrective Cycle

• The S/T trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to have been a correction. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4907.57, a Fibonacci retracement.
• EURUSD traded lower Tuesday. The pair has recently pierced resistance at 1.0718, the 20-day EMA, however the latest move higher appears to be a correction and the trend direction remains down. A resumption of the trend would open 1.0568, the Nov 2 2023 low. EURGBP traded lower Monday and the cross remains closer to its recent low. The extension down undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights potential for a deeper retracement. AUDUSD traded sharply lower Tuesday. The move down highlights a possible reversal of the rally from 0.6363, the Apr 19 low. A continuation would expose 0.6363 where a break would resume this year's downtrend.
• Gold traded lower Tuesday and breached initial support at $2291.6, the Apr 23 low. The precious metal has breached the 20-day EMA and this highlights a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2239.5, the 50-day EMA. WTI futures traded lower yesterday. The contract is testing support at the 50-day EMA, at $81.23. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and highlight scope for a deeper correction.
• A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Last week’s breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.0943 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.0885 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.0775 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0718/53 20-day EMA / High Apr 26
• PRICE: 1.0656 @ 05:58 BST May 1
• SUP 1: 1.0601 Low Apr 16
• SUP 2: 1.0568 Low Nov 2 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.0528 Base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high
• SUP 4: 1.0517 Low Nov 1 ‘23

EURUSD traded lower Tuesday. The pair has recently pierced resistance at 1.0718, the 20-day EMA, however the latest move higher appears to be a correction and the trend direction remains down. A resumption of the trend would open 1.0568, the Nov 2 2023 low, and 1.0525, the base of a bear channel drawn from the Dec 28 high. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal scope for a stronger recovery. The 50-day EMA is at 1.0771.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2803 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 1.2709 High Apr 09
• RES 2: 1.2576 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.2570 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 1.2477 @ 06:03 BST May 1
• SUP 1: 1.2423/2300 Low Apr 24 / 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2266 Low Nov 14 ‘23
• SUP 3: 1.2239 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - Mar 8 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish. Recent gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up and the recent break lower, maintains the downward price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. A resumption of the trend would open 1.2266, the Nov 14 2023 low. Resistance to watch is 1.2576, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Cycle

• RES 4: 0.8704 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 3: 0.8683 High Jan 2
• RES 2: 0.8665 61.8% retracement of the Nov 20 - Feb 14 bear cycle
• RES 1: 0.8600/45 High Apr 24 / 23
• PRICE: 0.8540 @ 06:18 BST May 1
• SUP 1: 0.8531 Low Apr 30
• SUP 2: 0.8521/8504 Low Apr 17 / Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 0.8498/93 Low Feb 14 / Low Aug 23 2023 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase

EURGBP traded lower Monday and the cross remains closer to its recent low. The extension down undermines a recent bullish theme and instead highlights potential for a deeper retracement. This has exposed 0.8521, the Apr 17 low. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a move towards the key support at 0.8498/93, the Feb 14 low and Aug 23 2023 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8645, the Apr 23 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Overbought

• RES 4: 160.17/20 High Apr 29 / High Apr 1990
• RES 3: 159.55 2.618 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 2: 158.97 2.50 proj of the Feb 1 - 13 - Mar 8 price swing
• RES 1: 158.44 HIgh Apr 26
• PRICE: 157.88 @ 06:52 BST May 1
• SUP 1: 154.58/54 20-day EMA / Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 153.59 Low Apr 19
• SUP 3: 152.31 50-day EMA values
• SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

The USDJPY trend condition remains bullish. However, Monday’s volatile session highlights the start of a possible corrective cycle. An early rally Monday stopped short of resistance at 160.20, the Apr 1990 high. Note that the trend condition is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Initial key support to watch lies at 154.58, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 152.31.

EURJPY TECHS: Scope For A Deeper Retracement

• RES 4: 171.64 2.00 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 171.56 High Apr 29
• RES 2: 170.04 1.764 proj of the Jan 1 - 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 1: 169.39 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 168.21 @ 07:07 BST May 1
• SUP 1: 167.67 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 165.64 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 164.44Trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low
• SUP 4: 164.01 50-day EMA

The EURJPY trend condition remains bullish however a sharp rally followed by a strong reversal, on Monday, signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. A bear cycle would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. Initial support to watch lies at 165.64, the 20-day EMA. Key trendline support at 164.44 remains intact. The line is drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low and a clear break of it is required to signal a short-term reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Reversal

• RES 4: 0.6668 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 0.6644 High Apr 9 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6617 50.0% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.6587 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 0.6479 @ 07:25 BST May 1
• SUP 1: 0.6441/6363 Low Apr 23 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support

AUDUSD traded sharply lower Tuesday. The move down highlights a possible reversal of the rally from 0.6363, the Apr 19 low. A continuation would expose 0.6363 where a break would resume this year's downtrend. Initial resistance has been defined at 0.6587, Monday’s high. Clearance of this level would be bullish and signal scope for a climb towards 0.6644, the Apr 9 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Structure

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3804 High Apr 9
• PRICE: 1.3782 @ 07:54 BST May 1
• SUP 1: 1.3632 Low Apr 29
• SUP 2: 1.3615 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD traded sharply higher Tuesday. A bullish trend condition remains intact and the most recent pullback appears to have been a correction. The pair has recently cleared 1.3614, the Mar 19, 22, 25 and 29 highs, strengthening a bullish theme. This opens 1.3855 next, the Nov 10 ‘23 high. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear rising trend. Key support to watch 1.3615, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

GILT TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 99.37 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 99.10 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 97.03/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
• RES 1: 96.57 High Apr 29
• PRICE: 95.78 @ Close Apr 30
• SUP 1: 95.36 Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 94.52 2.382 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Last week’s breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies have recently crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance to watch is 97.03, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 5333.50 High Apr 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5285.00 High Apr 10
• RES 2: 5213.25 High Apr 15
• RES 1: 5132.17/5154.25 20-day EMA / High Apr 29
• PRICE: 5055.00 @ 07:46 BST May 1
• SUP 1: 5022.25/4963.50 Low Apr 25 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4907.57 50.0% retracement of the Oct 27 ‘23 - Apr 1 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4863.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 4799.50 Low Jan 17

The S/T trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to have been a correction. The contract has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, signalling scope for a continuation lower. A resumption of the bear leg would open 4907.57, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance at 5132.17, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced, a clear break would signal a reversal and expose key resistance at 5333.50, Apr 1 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N4) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $95.18 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $94.00 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $92.09 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $88.64/91.18 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $85.59 @ 06:30 BST May 1
• SUP 1: $85.32 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $80.24 - 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13 - Apr 12 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $75.91 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures have pulled back from their most recent highs. Price is trading above key support at $85.36, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction that would open $80.24, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $91.18, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Initial resistance is at $88.64, the Apr 26 high.

WTI TECHS: (M4) Testing Support

• RES 4: $91.24 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $88.07 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 3 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 1: $84.46/86.97 - High Apr 26 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $81.14 @ 07:11 BST May 1
• SUP 1: $81.23/80.70 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: $76.07 - Low Mar 11
• SUP 3: $71.47 Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $70.11 - Low Jan 3

WTI futures traded lower yesterday. The contract is testing support at the 50-day EMA, at $81.23. A clear break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and highlight scope for a deeper correction. This would open $76.07, the Mar 11 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $86.97, the Apr 12 high. Initial resistance is at $84.46, the Apr 26 high.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $2500.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2481.5 - 1.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 1: $2352.6/2431.5 - High Apr 16 / 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $2387.7 @ 06:59 BST May 1
• SUP 1: $2281.7 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $2239.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: $2088.5 - High Dec 28

Gold traded lower Tuesday and breached initial support at $2291.6, the Apr 23 low. The precious metal has breached the 20-day EMA and this highlights a corrective cycle. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards $2239.5, the 50-day EMA. Note that a short-term bear cycle would allow a significant overbought condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $2431.5, the recent Apr 12 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $30.912 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $30.100 - Feb 2021 high and a key resistance
• RES 2: $30.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $27.732/29.797 - High Apr 26 / 12
• PRICE: $26.438 @ 08:06 BST May 1
• SUP 1: $26.245 - Low Apr 30
• SUP 2: $25.995/24.328 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 27
• SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
• SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support

Silver traded lower Tuesday confirming an extension of the pullback from $29.797, the Apr 12 high. This maintains the current corrective cycle and sights are on support at the 50-day EMA, at $25.995. A clear break of the 50-day average is required to strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at $29.797, the Apr 12 high. Initial resistance is at $27.732, the Apr 26 high.