MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Probing Support

Price Signal Summary - Gold Probes Support

• In the equity space, sentiment remains bullish. The E-mini S&P (U1) continues to grind higher, confirming once again that the path of least resistance remains up. The focus is on 4264.41, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, the recent break higher also exposes 4300.00. Initial firm support is at 4155.00, Jun 3 low. The broader medium-term trend support is at 4020.00, May 13 low.
• In the FX space, EURUSD appears vulnerable. The pair has traded either side of the 1.2111 50-day EMA and has briefly shown below the 1.2104 Jun 4 low. This zone represents a key short-term support and a clear break would signal scope for a deeper sell-off. GBPUSD attention is on the key support that lies 1.4006, May 13 low. The 50-day EMA is just above at 1.4037 and also represents a key support. The outlook is bullish while these levels hold. Recent USDJPY weakness resulted in a probe of support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. The pair has since entered a consolidation phase. A break lower would signal potential for a deeper decline and open 108.56, May 25 low. 110.33, Jun 4 high is the bull trigger.
• On the commodity front, Gold has probed support at $1856.2, Jun 4 low. A deeper sell-off would open $1841.6, the 50-day EMA. Trend conditions in oil remain bullish and price continues to trend higher. Brent (Q1) gains have seen the price top $73.00, a round number resistance. The focus is on $74.20, Apr 26, 2019 high (cont). WTI (N1) has also traded higher today as the uptrend extends. The focus is on $72.06, 3.00 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• Within FI, Bunds (U1) maintain a bullish tone with the focus on 173.32 next, 76.4% of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off. Gilts (U1) cleared 127.74/82 last week, the highs between Apr 20 and May 26. This opens 128.50, 1.00 projection of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.2414 High Apr 17, 2018
• RES 3: 1.2349/53 High Jan 6 / High Apr 20, 2018
• RES 2: 1.2266/85 High May 25 and the bull trigger / High Jan 8
• RES 1: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 1.2125 @ 05:55 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 1.2093 Low Jun 11
• SUP 2: 1.2052/43 Low May 13 / 100-dma
• SUP 3: 1.1986 Low May 5
• SUP 4: 1.1919 61.8% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally

EURUSD is trading closer to recent lows. The pair traded lower last week and breached initial support at 1.2111, the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low. The break lower signals scope for a deeper short-term correction and an extension would expose the next firm support at 1.2052, May 13 low with the 100-dma at 1.2043. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 1.2218, Jun 9 high. A break would ease the bearish threat and open 1.2266 instead.

GBPUSD TECHS: Still Range-Bound

• RES 4: 1.4427 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4377 High Apr 17, 2018 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.4315 High Apr 18, 2018
• RES 1: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.4113 @ 06:01 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 1.4071 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 1.4039/06 50-day EMA / Low May 13 and key support
• SUP 3: 1.3972 Low May 10
• SUP 4: 1.3858 Low May 6

GBPUSD conditions are unchanged and the pair remains in a range below key resistance at 1.4248, Jun 1 high. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bullish. The probe on Jun 1 of former resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high reinforced a bullish theme however a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the trend. This would open 1.4315, April 18 2018 high. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA, at 1.4039 and 1.4006, May 13 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8775 2.0% 10-dma envelope and high Feb 12
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 2: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull Trigger
• RES 1: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• PRICE: 0.8592 @ 06:16 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 0.8565/61 Low Jun 4 / Low May 12
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430 2.0% 10-dma envelope

EURGBP is consolidating with price action still trading in a range. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at 0.8672, May 25 high and while this holds, attention is on 0.8561, May 12 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case and expose 0.8531, a Fibonacci retracement ahead of key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. For bulls, a move above 0.8672 would alter the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Recent Highs

• RES 4: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 3: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 110.33 High Jun 4
• PRICE: 110.08 @ 06:26 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 109.19/05 Low Jun 7 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 106.97 Low Mar 4

USDJPY has managed to remain above support at 109.19 and is trading higher. The sharp sell-off on Jun 4 and 7 resulted in a print below former support at 109.33, Jun 1 low. However there has not been any bearish follow through and instead, with the pair firmer once again, attention is on 110.33, Jun 4 high. A break would remove bearish concerns and refocus attention on 110.97, this year's high print. Support lies at 109.19, Jun 7 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 135.17 Bull channel top drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low
• RES 3: 134.80 High Feb 8, 2018
• RES 2: 134.19 1.618 proj of Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 swing
• RES 1: 133.76/34.13 High Jun 10 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 133.47 @ 06:33 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 132.65 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 132.52 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 132.08 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.66 Bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low

EURJPY has found support at 132.65, Jun 14 low. Recent weakness has seen price trade through the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a deeper corrective pullback with attention turning to the 50-day EMA at 132.08. First support is at 132.52, May 24 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 133.76, Jun 10 high. A break would instead expose 134.13, Jun 1 high and the bull trigger.

AUDUSD TECHS: Still Range-Bound

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25
• RES 3: 0.7891/95 High May 10 / 76.4% of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7813/46 High May 18 / High May 12
• RES 1: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 0.7712 @ 06:44 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 0.7646 Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7546 200-dma

AUDUSD continues to trade in a range. The pair did break through 0.7675 on Jun 3 but immediately reversed the sharp move lower. The move lower though does highlight a bearish risk. A resumption of weakness would open 0.7586, Apr 13 low and 0.7532, Apr 1 low and a key support. Initial resistance is at 0.7773, Jun 2 high and 0.7813, May 18 high. A move above the latter would ease bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Resistance Is At 1.2203

• RES 4: 1.2419 High Apr 27
• RES 3: 1.2351 High May 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2233 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2177/2203 High Jun 11 / High May 6
• PRICE: 1.2135 @ 06:50 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 1.2057/2007 Low Jun 7 / Low May 18
• SUP 2: 1.2000 Psychological round number
• SUP 3: 1.1920 Low May 2015
• SUP 4: 1.1858 2.0% 10-dma envelope

USDCAD key resistance is at 1.2203, May 6 high. The underlying trend is bearish with key support and the bear trigger at 1.2007, May 18 low. A break would resume the downtrend and expose the psychological 1.2000 handle where a breach would reinforce bearish conditions. For bulls, clearance of 1.2203, would instead signal a short-term base and the potential for a stronger corrective bounce.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 174.07 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 2: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 173.16 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 172.66 @ 05:04 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 171.89 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.99 Low Mar 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 170.56 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 170.27 Low May 21

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone despite the recent pullback. The contract breached the 50-day EMA last week and 172.05, the Jun 4 high. The break higher signals scope for stronger short-term gains. Attention is on 173.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support lies at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 171.89. Key near-term support has been defined at 170.99, Mar 31 low where a break is required to signal a reversal.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 134.835 1.500 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 134.320 @ 05:08 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 134.125 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 133.860 Low May 28 and 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 133.690 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures remain bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. On Jun 4, price cleared 134.100. May 26 and 27 high. The break confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, highlighting an uptrend. Scope is for a move towards 134.510 next, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. Initial support is at 134.125.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Short-Term Uptrend Intact

• RES 4: 112.235 2.00 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 112.213 1.764 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 112.216 1.618 proj of the May 24 - 27 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 112.210 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 112.170 @ 05:13 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 112.160 Low Jun 9 and 10
• SUP 2: 112.150 Low Jun 4, 7, 8
• SUP 3: 112.145 Low Jun 3
• SUP 4: 112.135 Low May 27, 28 and 31 and key near-term support

Schatz futures remains bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Last week the contract cleared resistance at 112.180, May 27 high. The break highlights a stronger short-term bullish tone signalling scope for a climb towards 112.216 and 112.223 next, Fibonacci projections. Key trend support has been defined at 112.135, late May lows where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is at 112.160, Jun 10 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Needle Points North

• RES 4: 129.19 1.382 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 1: 128.39 High Jun 11
• PRICE: 127.92 @ Close Jun 14
• SUP 1: 127.34 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 127.13 Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low May 21

Last week Gilt futures cleared resistance at 127.74/85, Apr 20 and May 7, 26 highs respectively and a key resistance zone. The move through 127.74 confirms a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, highlighting a bullish theme. The focus is on 128.50 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend support has been defined at 126.70, Jun 3 low. Initial support is seen at 127.34, the Jun 10 low.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Bullish Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 152.47 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 151.97 @ Close Jun 14
• SUP 1: 150.75 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 149.53 Low May 28
• SUP 4: 148.80 Low May 25

BTP futures traded higher again last week and the contract maintains the current bullish cycle following the reversal from the 147.00 low on Mar 19. With bulls clearly in control and momentum still positive, attention is on 152.66 next, a Fibonacci projection. The contract is also approaching the Feb high of 153.82. On the downside, firm support has been defined at 150.11, Jun 8 low. Initial support is at 150.75, Jun 10 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (M1) Still Heading North

• RES 4: 4290.00 High Jan 14, 2008
• RES 3: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 2: 4230.19 Bull channel top drawn off the Feb 26 low
• RES 1: 4175.00 Low Nov 26, 2007 (cont)
• PRICE: 4155.00 @ 05:45 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 4065.36/4016.00 20-day EMA / Low May 27
• SUP 2: 3981.78/70.06 50-day EMA / Channel base from Feb 26 low
• SUP 3: 3882.00 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3844.00 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures is trading higher once again as the contract extends gains and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Furthermore, moving average studies also remain in bull mode, reinforcing current trend conditions. The focus is on 4175.00 next, Nov 26 2008 low. On the downside, firm trend support is unchanged at 3882.00, May 19 low. Initial support lies at 4065.36, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Defying Gravity

• RES 4: 4334.57 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 2: 4264.41 1.618 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 4254.25 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4254.00 @ 06:59 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: 4194.57/55.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 3
• SUP 2: 4132.19/4046.00 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4005.50 Low Apr 5

S&P E-minis remain bullish and have traded higher once again today. The contract recently moved above 4228.25 on May 10. The break confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend and signals potential for further gains with the next objective at 4264.41, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, the break higher also opens 4300.00. Initial firm support is at 4155.00, Jun 3 low. The broader medium-term trend support is at 4020.00, May 13 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $74.59 1.00 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $74.20 - High Apr 26, 2019 (cont)
• RES 2: $74.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $73.64 - High Jun 14
• PRICE: $73.11 @ 06:56 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: $70.51 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $69.90 High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 3: $66.39/64.50 - Low May 24 / Low May 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $63.51 - Low Apr 22

Brent crude futures traded higher again yesterday, extending the underlying uptrend. The $72.00 handle was cleared last week and attention turns to $74.00 next. Moving average studies remain bullish too, reinforcing current conditions. Weakness through $64.50, the May 21 low is required to highlight a key short-term top. Initial support lies at $70.51, the 20-day EMA ahead of $69.90, May 18 high.

WTI TECHS: (N1) Path Of Least Resistance Remains Up

• RES 4: $74.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $73.20 - 3.236 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: $72.70 - High Oct 15, 2018 (cont)
• RES 1: $72.06 - 3.00 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• PRICE: $71.19 @ 06:59 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: $68.06 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.02 - High May 18
• SUP 3: $63.63/61.56 - Low May 24 / Low May 21
• SUP 4: $60.55 - Low Apr 22 and key short-term support

WTI crude futures remain bullish and the contract traded higher once again yesterday. The psychological $70.00 handle has recently been cleared. The break reinforces current trend conditions and opens $72.06 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend support has been defined at $61.56, May 21 low. A break is required to suggest a key short-term top. Initial firm support is seen at $68.06, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: 50-day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1965.6 - High Nov 9, 2020
• RES 3: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1927.7 - High Jan 7
• RES 1: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1868.5 07:18 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1842.6 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1808.9 - Low May 13
• SUP 4: $1785.1 - Low May 6

Gold traded lower yesterday, extending Friday's sell-off. The yellow metal traded through $1856.2, Jun 4 low. The break strengthens a short-term bearish case exposing the 50-day EMA at $1842.6. The 50-day EMA also represents a strong area of trend support. For bulls, yesterday's rebound does highlight some short-term bullish signals. The yellow metal will need to extend the rebound to suggest a base has instead been established.

SILVER TECHS: Key Resistance Intact

• RES 4: $30.100 - High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $29.053 - High Feb 2
• RES 2: $28.753 - High May 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• PRICE: $27.727 @ 07:20 BST Jun 15
• SUP 1: $27.130 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $27.040 - Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $26.721 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $25.718 - Low Apr 29

Silver has failed to hold above the $28.00 handle and key resistance at $28.556/753, Jun 1 and May 18 highs respectively remains intact. A break of this zone is required to negate recent bearish concerns following the sharp sell-off on Jun 3. Clearance of $28.753 would also confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $27.040, Jun 3 low. A break would be bearish.