MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Remains in S/T Correction

Price Signal Summary – Gold Remains in S/T Correction

• The E-mini S&P contract traded higher yesterday and is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded above resistance at 4520.90, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. A clear break of this level would strengthen the upleg. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher yesterday as the contract extends the corrective recovery from 4187.00, the Aug 18 low. The contract has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4330.6.
• The trend needle in EURUSD points south, however, a key support at 1.0778 remains intact, and the pair traded higher Wednesday. 1.0778 marks the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low and represents an important pivot point. EURGBP is consolidating and holding onto its most recent gains. The contract has this week traded above resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8595. A continuation higher would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and suggest scope for a stronger correction. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Resistance at the 20-day EMA of 0.6490 has been pierced, but markets look to cement a break before any reversal higher can be confirmed.
• A short-term correction in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1931.1. This strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention turns to $1948.3, 61.8% of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg. The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low, however price action has since recovered. Note that a key support also lies at the 50-day EMA.
• A strong rally in Bund futures on Aug 23 resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. That move higher continues to threaten the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. This has exposed 133.45. A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally last week suggests the contract remains in a short-term bullish corrective cycle. Price is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains reinforcing a bull theme. An extension higher would open 95.82.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 1: 1.0930/45 50-day EMA / High Aug 30
• PRICE: 1.0928 @ 15:52 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 1.0778/66 Channel base drawn from Mar 15 / Low Aug 25
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0668 Low Jun 7
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and a key support

The trend needle in EURUSD points south, however, a key support at 1.0778 remains intact, and the pair traded higher Wednesday. 1.0778 marks the base of a bull channel drawn from the Mar 15 low and represents an important pivot point. A clear channel breakout would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.0733, Jun 12 low. Resistance at 1.0930, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen bullish conditions.

GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2996 High Jul 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2887 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 1.2819 High Aug 10 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.2746 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 1.2722 @ 06:04 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1.2548/21 Low Aug 25 / 1.382 of Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2480 1.50 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5

GBPUSD traded higher Wednesday resulting in a print above resistance at 1.2707, the 20-day EMA. The break higher exposes key resistance at 1.2819, the Aug 10 high. The trend outlook is bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of support at 1.2621, the Aug 14 low and 1.2591, the Jun 29 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend - the bear trigger is at 1.2548, the Aug 25 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8669 High Aug 11
• RES 2: 0.8643 100-dma
• RES 1: 0.8611 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.8585 @ 06:23 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 0.8556 Low Aug 28
• SUP 2: 0.8536/8493 Low Aug 24 / 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8475 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 2022 bull leg

EURGBP is consolidating and holding onto its most recent gains. The contract has this week traded above resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8595. A continuation higher would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and suggest scope for a stronger correction, towards 0.8669, the Aug 11 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a medium-term downtrend, the bear trigger lies at 0.8493, the Aug 23 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 148.40 High Nov 4 2022
• RES 2: 147.49 2.00 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 147.37 High Aug 29
• PRICE: 145.97 @ 06:37 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1145.01 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 144.54 Low Aug 23
• SUP 3: 143.12 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 141.52 Low Aug 7

USDJPY is consolidating. The uptrend remains intact and Tuesday’s fresh cycle high reinforces bullish conditions. Attention is on 147.49, a Fibonacci projection and the next objective. A break would open 148.40, the Nov 4 2022 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, reflecting current positive market sentiment. Support to watch lies at 145.01, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle High

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 159.76 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 159.32 @ 07:00 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 158.06/156.87 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 156.42 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.11 Low Jul 31
• SUP 4: 154.50 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 22 rally

The uptrend in EURJPY remains intact and yesterday’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend. This also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies remain in bull-mode position. Sights are on 159.92, a Fibonacci projection ahead of the 160.00 psychological handle. On the downside, initial support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 158.06.

AUDUSD TECHS: Recent Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 1: 0.6575 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30
• PRICE: 0.6483 @ 07:23 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 0.6365 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6285 Low Nov 4 2022
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish and the latest recovery appears to be a correction. Resistance at the 20-day EMA of 0.6490 has been pierced, but markets look to cement a break before any reversal higher can be confirmed. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6575 - a key resistance. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, would pave the way for weakness towards 0.6285 next, the Nov 4 2022 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3727 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3655 High May 26 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3640 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 1.3541 @ 31:08 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 1.3510 Low Aug 24
• SUP 2: 1.3489 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3409 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.3266 Low Aug 2

USDCAD traded lower again Wednesday. This is likely a correction and trend conditions remain bullish. Last week’s gains reinforce the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 1.3655, the May 26 high. A trendline resistance, drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high, is at 1.3727 and represents an objective further out. Support lies at 1.3489, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would signal the start of a correction.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 134.88 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 134.01 High Jul 24
• RES 2: 133.92 High Jul 27
• RES 1: 133.45 High Aug 8 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 132.12 @ 05:35 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 131.70/20 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.14 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 129.69 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

A strong rally in Bund futures on Aug 23 resulted in a break of resistance at the 20- and 50-day EMA values. That move higher continues to threaten the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery. This has exposed 133.45, the Aug 8 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 131.20, the Aug 23 low. A break of this level would instead be seen as a bearish development.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 116.860 High Jun 13
• RES 3: 116.600 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 116.340 High Aug 8
• RES 1: 115.920/116.260 High Aug 25 / 24
• PRICE: 115.520 @ 05:39 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 115.360/210 Low Aug 28 / 23
• SUP 2: 114.960 Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: 114.710 Low Aug 15
• SUP 4: 114.550 Low Jul 6 and a key support

Bobl futures remain below last week’s highs. The recent climb resulted in a break of both 20- and 50-day EMA values. This highlights a stronger correction and a resumption of gains would signal scope for 116.340, the Aug 8 high. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend and suggest gains are a correction. Support to watch lies at 115.210, the Aug 23 low. A break would reinstate a bearish threat.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Key Directional Parameters Defined

• RES 4: 105.325 High Jun 14
• RES 3: 105.295 High Aug 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.255 High Aug 9
• RES 1: 105.057/230 50-day EMA / High Aug 24
• PRICE: 104.900 @ 05:52 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 104.825/760 Low Aug 30 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.741 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - Aug 8 bull leg
• SUP 3: 104.620/104.570 Low Jul 11 / 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.470 2.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain below their recent highs. Recent activity has highlighted key directional parameters at 104.760, the Aug 15 low and 105.230, the Aug 24 high. A breach of support would reinstate a bearish theme and expose 104.741 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, clearance of 105.230 would leave the key resistance at 105.295, the Aug 8 high, exposed. A break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 97.27 76.4% retrace of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 96.19 High Jul 31(cont)
• RES 2: 95.82 High Aug 10 (cont)
• RES 1: 95.11 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 94.84 @ Close Aug 30
• SUP 1: 94.14 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 92.56 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and the bear trigger

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact, however, a strong rally last week suggests the contract remains in a short-term bullish corrective cycle. Price is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains reinforcing a bull theme. An extension higher would open 95.82, the Aug 10 high (cont). Note that trend signals continue to highlight a downtrend. The bear trigger has been defined at 91.47, the Aug 17 low.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 116.86 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 116.12 High Aug 24
• PRICE: 115.31 @ Close Aug 30
• SUP 1: 114.11/112.95 Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support
• SUP 4: 111.05 1.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - Jul 19 price swing

A recent rally in BTP futures resulted in a move above the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle. Resistance at 116.02, the Aug 9 high, has been pierced - a clear break of this level would signal scope for an extension higher. The Aug 23 low of 114.11 marks the first key short-term support. A reversal and break of this level would be a bearish development and expose 112.95, the Jul 11 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 4515.00 High Nov / Dec 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4513.00 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 4420.00 High Aug 10
• RES 1: 4388.50 61.8% of the Jul 31 - Aug 18 bear leg
• PRICE: 4328.00 @ 06:29 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 4308.6 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4225.00/4187.00 Low Aug 24 / 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 4177.40 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4122.00 Low Mar 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher yesterday as the contract extends the corrective recovery from 4187.00, the Aug 18 low. The contract has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA at 4330.6. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 4420.00. On the downside, a breach of 4187.00 would be a bearish development and confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Trades Through Former Channel Base

• RES 4: 4634.50 High Jul 27 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4593.50 High Aug 2
• RES 2: 4560.75 High Aug 4
• RES 1: 4531.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4524.50 @ 06:23 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: 4452.93/4350.00 50-day EMA / Low Aug 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4344.28 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4305.75 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 4254.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

The E-mini S&P contract traded higher yesterday and is holding on to its recent gains. Price has traded above resistance at 4520.90, the base of a bull channel, drawn from the Mar 13 low that was breached on Aug 16. A clear break of this level would strengthen the upleg and open 4560.75, the Aug 4 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4452.93, the 50-day EMA. A return below the average would be a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V3) Pierces Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: $92.10 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 18 price swing
• RES 3: $90.63 - High Nov 11 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $86.23 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $85.80 @ 06:30 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $82.24 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $78.10 - Low Jul 18 and key support
• SUP 3: $74.78 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $72.04 - Low Jun 28

Brent futures traded higher yesterday and the contract remains above recent lows. The 50-day EMA lies at $82.24 and represents an important support. A break of this level would highlight a stronger bearish threat. Resistance to watch is $85.86, Aug 21 high. It has been pierced, a clear break would be seen as a bullish development and suggest potential for a climb towards $88.10, the Aug 10 high.

WTI TECHS: (V3) Challenging Resistance

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $86.62 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 2: $85.24 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing
• RES 1: $82.05/84.16 - High Aug 30 / 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $81.72 @ 07:05 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $77.81 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $73.60 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: $6972 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $66.83 - Low Jun 12 and key support

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. Last week’s move lower resulted in a print below support at $78.33, the Aug 3 low, however price action has since recovered. Note that a key support also lies at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $77.96. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger bear cycle. Price has pierced resistance at $81.75, Aug 21 high, a clear break would be bullish.

GOLD TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• RES 3: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 1: $1949.1 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $1945.00 @ 07:10 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $1920.8 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1903.9/1884.9 - Low Aug 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

A short-term correction in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $1931.1. This strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention turns to $1948.3, 61.8% of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg. It has been pierced, a clear break would open $1963.3, the 76.4% retracement. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1903.9, the Aug 25 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.149 - High Jul 27
• RES 1: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• PRICE: $24.474 @ 07:57 BST Aug 31
• SUP 1: $23.921/413 - Low Aug 25 / 23
• SUP 2: $22.667 - Low Aug 21
• SUP 3: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 4: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger

Recent gains in Silver highlights a stronger short-term bull cycle and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The metal has cleared $24.550 - the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 14 downleg. This strengthens bullish conditions and a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch is $23.413, the Aug 23 low. A break would signal a potential reversal.