MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Remains Vulnerable

Price Signal Summary – Gold Remains Vulnerable

• In the equity space, charts are highlighting some short-term bearish threats. S&P E-minis are trading higher today, extending the recovery from Tuesday's 4649.00 low. This level also represents a short-term support ahead of the key 4625.25 level, Nov 10 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower yesterday. The contract however has managed to find support just ahead of the 50-day EMA, at 4235.50 today.
• In FX, trend conditions are unchanged in the USD and the uptrend remains firmly intact. EURUSD trend condition remains bearish and the pair weakened again yesterday. The move lower continues to cement the downtrend and extend the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. GBPUSD weakness this week has resulted in a breach of 1.3353, Nov 12 low and 1.3334, the 1.00 projection of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing. This cements the bearish outlook and further downside is likely near-term. USDJPY remains in an uptrend. This week's gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend following the break of 114.99, Nov 17 high and bulls have not looked back.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable and is trading near recent lows. The yellow metal has sold off sharply this week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has traded below the 20- and the 50-day EMA. The clear breach of these averages suggests scope for a deeper pullback and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1756.2.
• In the FI space, Bund futures edged lower again yesterday as the recent pullback from 172.57, Nov 22 high extends. For now, the move lower is considered corrective as long as support at 170.06 remains intact, Nov 5 low. Gilt futures traded lower yesterday and in the process breached the key near-term support at 125.40, Nov 17 low. This undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights the potential risk of a deeper sell-off.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Path Of Least Resistance Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.1755 High Sep 22
• RES 3: 1.1610/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 2: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• RES 1: 1.1374/1409 High Nov 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1214 @ 06:03 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 1.1185 Low Jul 1, 2020
• SUP 2: 1.1128 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1040 76.4% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 uptrend
• SUP 4: 1.0976 2.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing

EURUSD trend condition remains bearish and the pair weakened again yesterday. The move lower continues to cement the downtrend and extend the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The objective of 1.1222, a Fibonacci projection, has been met. The focus is on 1.1185 next, Jul 1 2020 low. Initial resistance is at 1.1374, Nov 18 high with the 20-day EMA at 1.1409. A break of 1.1374 is required to ease bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 1.3698 High Nov 4
• RES 2: 1.3514/3607 High Nov 18 and a key resistance / High Nov 9
• RES 1: 1.3490 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3350 @ 06:08 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 1.3316 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 1.3304 Low Dec 22, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.3216 1.236 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3165 38.2% Mar '20 - Jun '21 Upleg

GBPUSD weakness this week has resulted in a breach of 1.3353, Nov 12 low and 1.3334, the 1.00 projection of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing. This cements the bearish outlook and further downside is likely near-term. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear mode, reinforcing current conditions. The focus is on 1.3304 next, the Dec 22, 2020 low. Firm resistance is seen at 1.3514, Nov 9 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8595/98 High Nov 5 / 76.4% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• RES 3: 0.8538/74 High Nov 15 / High Nov 11
• RES 2: 0.8489 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8457/63 20-day EMA / Nov 3 low
• PRICE: 0.8400 @ 06:23 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 0.8381 Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.8339 Low Feb 25, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8282/77 Low Feb 18, 2020 / Low Dec 13, 2019

EURGBP is unchanged and continues to consolidate in a range. The downtrend remains intact. The recent sharp sell-off and break of 0.8403, Oct 26 low signals scope for further weakness. The focus is on 0.8356 next, Feb 26, 2020 low. Note that the cross is also approaching the base - at 0.8300/8280 - of a broad multi-year range and this area represents a major support. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8463.

USDJPY TECHS: Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 117.53 High Jan 9, 2017
• RES 3: 116.87 High Jan 11, 2017
• RES 2: 116.09 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 1: 115.52 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 115.40 @ 06:31 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 114.16/113.59 Low Nov 19 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 113.11/112.73 50-day EMA / Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 111.51 Low Oct 8

USDJPY remains in an uptrend. This week's gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend following the break of 114.99, Nov 17 high and bulls have not looked back. The pair has tested 115.51, Mar 10, 2017 high and the print above this level reinforces current bullish conditions. The focus is on 116.09 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined 113.59, Nov 19 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 132.56 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 131.59 High Nov 5
• RES 2: 130.55 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.99/130.12 High Nov 19 / High Nov 16
• PRICE: 129.42 @ 06:36 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 127.98/93 Low Nov 19 / Low Sep 22 and a key support
• SUP 2: 127.28 1.00 proj of the Jun 1 - Sep 22 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 3: 127.04 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 126.65 Low Feb 10

EURJPY is consolidating and remains above last week's 127.98 low. The short-term outlook is bearish. Recent weakness has resulted in a probe of 128.33, Oct 6 low. A clear break would leave 127.93 exposed, Sep 22 low and a key support. A break would confirm an important technical breach and open 127.28, a Fibonacci projection level. 129.99, the Nov 19 high marks initial resistance. A break is needed to ease bearish pressure.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Below The Bull Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7529/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• RES 2: 0.7371 High Nov 15
• RES 1: 0.7264/93 Former channel low from Aug 20 low / High Nov 18
• PRICE: 0.7205 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 0.7184 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 0.7170 Low Sep 29
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and a major support
• SUP 4: 0.7049 Low Nov 4, 2020

AUDUSD remains soft. The pair has this week breached the base of its bull channel drawn from the Aug 20 low. The break reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for a deeper short-term pullback. Moving average signals have also shifted to bear mode, highlighting the current direction. The move lower has opened 0.7170, Sep 29 low where a break would expose 0.7106 further out, Aug 20 low. Resistance to watch is at 0.7371, Nov 15 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2896 High Sep 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2849 High Sep 21
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 1.2745/53 High Nov 23 / 76.4% of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off
• PRICE: 1.2648 @ 06:45 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 1.2585/2493 Low Nov 19 / 16
• SUP 2: 1.2387 Low Nov 1o
• SUP 3: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2253 Low Jun 23

USDCAD remains in an uptrend following the recent retracement of the Sep - Oct sell-off. Price has now topped the October high of 1.2739 and sights are on 1.2753, 76.4% of the Sep 20 - Oct 21 sell-off and 1.2775, Sep 29 high. Clearance of these levels would set the scene for a climb towards 1.2896, the Sep 20 high. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 1.2493, the Nov 16 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Watching Key Near-Term Support

• RES 4: 173.93 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 173.54 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 172.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 1: 171.70/72.57 High Nov 23 / High Nov 22
• PRICE: 170.66 @ 05:10 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 170.31 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 3: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

Bund futures edged lower again yesterday as the recent pullback from 172.57, Nov 22 high extends. For now, the move lower is considered corrective as long as support at 170.06 remains intact, Nov 5 low. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the breach of 171.95 - 61.8% of the Aug - Nov sell-off opens 172.95, the 76.4% retracement. A break of 170.06 however would alter the picture.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 136.14 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 135.690 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 135.080 @ 05:11 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 134.957 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.700/320 Low Nov 11 / Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)

Bobl futures are trading closer to recent lows. The pullback this week is still likely a correction. The contract last week breached resistance at 135.320, Nov 15 high. This confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and has opened 135.870 next, Sep 3 high. The break higher also signals scope for a climb towards 136.00 and beyond further out. Key short-term support is at 134.700, Nov 11 low. A break would reverse the direction.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 112.656 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Jun 2020 sell-off
• RES 3: 112.585 High Mar 17 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.505 High Nov 4 2020 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 112.495 High Nov 22
• PRICE: 112.430 @ 05:20 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 112.316/261 20- and 50-day EMAs
• SUP 2: 112.100 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 112.050 Low Nov 2
• SUP 4: 111.945 Low Oct 28 and major support

The Schatz futures outlook remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to recent highs. The recent break higher confirmed a resumption of the short-term uptrend and this has paved the way for gains towards 112.505 next, Nov 4 2020 high (cont). Moving average conditions have turned bullish reinforcing the positive theme. Initial firm support lies at 112.261, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Trades Through Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 3: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 2: 127.02/29 High Nov 22 / High Nov 9 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 126.24 High Nov 23
• PRICE: 125.46 @ Close Nov 24
• SUP 1: 125.21 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday and in the process breached the key near-term support at 125.40, Nov 17 low. This undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights the potential risk of a deeper sell-off. An extension of the pullback would expose 124.25, the Nov 1 low. On the upside a recovery above Tuesday's high of 126.24 would ease bearish concerns. The key resistance zone though is at 127.02/29.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 151.90/153.12 50-day EMA / High Nov 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 150.10 @ Close Nov 24
• SUP 1: 149.59 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 149.41 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 3: 148.54 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - 10 rally
• SUP 4: 147.12 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger

BTP futures traded lower again yesterday. This week's move down has resulted in a break of support at 150.72, Nov 12 low. The move through this level undermines the recent bull theme and a deeper sell-off would open 149.41 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 153.12, Nov 10 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial resistance is at 151.90.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Finds Support Ahead Of The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4498.00 High Dec 27, 2007 (cont)
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4420.80 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - Oct 6 price swing
• RES 1: 4409.50 High Nov 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4298.50 @ 05:55 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 4236.50/35.50 Low Nov 25 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4223.00 High Sep 6
• SUP 3: 4119.00 Low Oct 18
• SUP 4: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower yesterday. The contract however has managed to find support just ahead of the 50-day EMA, at 4235.50 today. This average marks a key support parameter and a breach of it is required to signal the next leg lower. For now, yesterday's recovery is encouraging for bulls and the low of 4236.50 does suggest a potential short-term base. A continued recovery would open 4409.50, the Nov 18 high.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Extends The Bounce From Tuesday's Low

• RES 4: 4842.75 2.00 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4740.50/46.68 High Nov 22 / 1.618 of Jul 19-Aug 16-19 swing
• PRICE: 4716.25 @ 06:55 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 4649.00/4625.25 Low Nov 23 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 4562.53/4543.75 50-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4472.00 High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis are trading higher today, extending the recovery from Tuesday's 4649.00 low. This level also represents a short-term support ahead of the key 4625.25 level, Nov 10 low. Attention remains on Monday's reversal lower. The price pattern on this day is a bearish shooting star. A breach of 4625.25 though is required to confirm a top. Clearance of 4740.50, Nov 22 high would negate the pattern and instead confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Extends Gains From Recent Lows

• RES 4: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $83.14 - High Nov 16
• PRICE: $82.31 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: $77.58 - Low Nov 22
• SUP 2: $77.19 - 38.2% retracement of the Aug 23 - Oct 25 rally
• SUP 3: $75.80 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $74.70 - High Sep 15

Brent futures have rebounded off recent lows and the contract remains above recent lows and is holding onto recent highs. Price is approaching resistance at $83.14, Nov 16 high where a break would strengthen conditions for bulls. This would signal potential for a climb towards the major resistance of $85.77, Oct 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $77.58, Nov 22 low. A break would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Eyeing The Channel Base

• RES 4: $1909.7 - High Jun 3
• RES 3: $1903.8 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $1877.2/83.7 High Nov 16 / Bull channel top
• RES 1: $1819.7/49.1 - 20-day EMA / High Nov 22
• PRICE: $1794.1 1 @ 07:09 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: $1778.7 - Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: $1759.0 - Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1756.2 - Bull Channel base drawn from the Aug 9 low
• SUP 4: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and a key support

Gold remains vulnerable and is trading near recent lows. The yellow metal has sold off sharply this week extending the move lower from $1877.2, the Nov 16 high. Price has traded below the 20- and the 50-day EMA. The clear breach of these averages suggests scope for a deeper pullback and attention is on the base of a bull channel at $1756.2. The channel is drawn off the Aug 9 low. Initial resistance is at $1819.7, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Firm Near-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $26.778 - High Jul 6
• RES 3: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 2: $26.002 - High Aug 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.406 - High Nov 16
• PRICE: $23.684 @ 07:14 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: $23.020 - Low Nov 3 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver remains near recent lows. The metal has traded through the 50-day EMA this week. The break of this average suggests scope for a deeper short-term pullback and opens $23.020, the Nov 3 low and a firm near-term support. For bulls, a move above $25.406, Nov 16 high would reinstate a bullish theme and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. This would open $26.002, the Aug 4 high.