MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Still Weak, Upticks Look Corrective

Tech Focus: E-MINI S&P (U1): 50-DAY EMA Again Provides Support

• The recent pullback in S&P E-minis suggests the contract has entered a corrective cycle.
• However, price tested the 50-day EMA this week at 4145.50 and the average has provided support, as it has done on a number of occasions this year.
• The Monday/Tuesday rally is also potentially an important bull signal and in pattern terms is a bullish piercing pattern.
• The key bull trigger is at 4258.25, Jun 15 high.
• 4126.75, low Jun 21 is key short-term support.

Price Signal Summary

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis tested the 50-day EMA this week. The average has provided support and Tuesday's strong close signals scope for a resumption of gains. Key support has been defined at 4126.75, Jun 21 low. This level also represents a key short-term pivot support. The bull trigger is 4258.25, last week's high.
• In FX, EURUSD remains weak following last week's sharp sell-off and gains are considered corrective. The focus is on 1.1837 next, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following last week's bearish pressure and despite yesterday's gains. The pair has probed 1.3800 and this signals scope for 1.3717 next, Apr 16 low. USDJPY traded higher last week and breached 110.33, Jun 4 high. This reinforces a bullish theme with the focus on 110.97, the year high on Mar 31. Support to watch is at 109.72, Monday's low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains weak and the focus is on $1756.2, low Apr 29. Upticks are considered corrective. Oil on the other hand has resumed its uptrend. Support in Brent (Q1) has been defined at $72.01, the Jun 17 low. The focus is on $75.60, Apr 25 2019 high (cont). WTI (N1) focus is on $74.47, 3.50 projection of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing. Support to watch lies at $69.77, Jun 17 low.
• Within FI, Bund futures are trading lower today and have probed support at 171.80, Jun 17 low. A stronger pullback would expose 170.99, Mar 31 low and a key short-term support. 173.16, the Jun 11 high is key resistance. Key support to watch in Gilt futures is unchanged at 126.70, Jun 3 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.2218 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.2147 High Jun 15
• RES 2: 1.2064 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1953/2006 High Jun 22 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: 1.1920 @ 06:00 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.1848 Low Jun 18 and 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1837 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

Despite recent gains, the EURUSD outlook remains bearish following last week's sharp move lower. This resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.2104, Jun 4 low highlighting a bearish theme and has confirmed a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1837, a Fibonacci retracement where a break would open 1.1704, Mar 31 low and a key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is 1.2006, the Jun 17 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 1.4203/48 High Jun 3 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 1.4019 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3964 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.3931 @ 06:06 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.3787 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

Despite the recent climb. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following sharp losses last week and the break of short-term support levels - price cleared the 50-day EMA and 1.4006, May 13 low. The pair has also traded through the 100-DMA, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Scope is seen for an extension lower towards 1.3717, Apr 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.4019, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger is 1.3787.

EURGBP TECHS: Trading At Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 3: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 1: 0.8629 High Jun 15
• PRICE: 0.8556 @ 06:14 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 0.8542 Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: 0.8531 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8412 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The EURGBP outlook remains bearish and the cross is trading at recent lows. The cross last week breached 0.8561, May 12 low. This signals the end of the recent consolidation and strengthens a bearish case. The focus is on weakness and on 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally. A break would expose key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8629, Jun 15 high where a breach would ease the bearish threat.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching The 2021 High

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 2: 111.19 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 110.80 @ 06:20 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 109.72 Low June 21
• SUP 2: 109.33/19 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: 108.56/34 Low May 25 / Low May 7 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 107.48 Low Apr 23 and the bear trigger

USDJPY is firmer and has traded above last week's high print of 110.82 on Jun 17. The recent break of 110.33, Jun 4 high is a bullish development and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 23. An extension higher would again confirm a resumption of this trend and expose resistance at 110.97, this year's high print on Mar 31 and 111.19, 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Initial key support is at 109.72, Jun 21 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 132.55 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.09 @ 06:28 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 131.22/30.04 Low Jun 22 / Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 129.59 Low Apr 23
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: Low Mar 24 and key support

Despite this week's corrective gains, EURJPY remains vulnerable. A bearish theme follows a sharp move lower last week. The cross has cleared the 50-day EMA and importantly also breached the bull channel support drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. This highlights a reversal in sentiment and note, price has probed the 100-dma. Attention is on 130.00 and 129.59, Apr 23 low. Resistance is seen at 132.55, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bears Pause For Breath

• RES 4: 0.7776 High Jun 11
• RES 3: 0.7697 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 1: 0.7561 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 0.7543 @ 06:41 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 0.7476 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 0.7462 Low Dec 21, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7372 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Mar 9 - 18 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020

AUDUSD is consolidating. The outlook remains bearish following recent weakness. The pair has traded below key support at 0.7532 Apr 1 low and price has also breached the 200-dma. The move lower confirms a resumption of the reversal that occurred Feb 25 and signals scope for a deeper pullback towards 0.7462 next, the Dec 21, 2020 low. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7564, the Jun 22 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Sentiment Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2535 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.2501 76.4% retracement of the Apr 21 - Jun 1 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2403 High Jun 22
• PRICE: 1.2324 @ 06:50 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 1.2253 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2216 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057/2007 Low Jun 7 / Low May 18

The USDCAD pullback is considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The recent break of 1.2203, May 6 high confirmed a short-term reversal and the pair has also cleared the 50-day EMA, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The focus is on 1.2501, a Fibonacci retracement. A break would open 1.2653, high Apr 21 and an important resistance. Initial support is seen at 1.2253, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Probes Support

• RES 4: 173.79 High Apr 8
• RES 3: 173.32 76.4% retracement of the Mar 25 - May 19 sell-off
• RES 2: 173.16 High Jun 11
• RES 1: 173.03 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 172.03 @ 05:12 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 171.67 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 171.37 Low Jun 3
• SUP 3: 170.99 Low May 31 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 170.56 Low May 24

Bund futures traded lower yesterday and did probe support at 171.80, Jun 17 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper pullback and confirm a clearer breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open 171.37, Jun 3 low ahead of a firmer support at 170.99, Mar 31 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 173.16, Jun 11 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Tests Key Support

• RES 4: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.663 1.236 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.510 1.00 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.250/390 High Jun 17 / High Jun 15
• PRICE: 133.970 @ 05:13 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 133.700 76.4% retracement of the May 20 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 3: 133.530 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 133.450 Low May 20 and the bear trigger

Bobl futures dipped lower again yesterday, extending the recent pullback. Although the pullback is considered corrective, a near-term bearish risk remains present. Price is below the 20-day EMA and note that key support is at 133.860, May 28 and 31 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 134.510, a Fibonacci projection and the Jun 11 high. Initial resistance is at 134.250.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Eroding Support

• RES 4: 112.210 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 112.185 High Jun 15 and 16
• RES 2: 112.175 High Jun 17 and 18
• RES 1: 112.165 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 112.115 @ 05:30 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 112.110 Low Apr 20 and Jun 22
• SUP 2: 112.086 138.2% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 3: 112.075 150.0% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally
• SUP 4: 112.064 161.8% retracement of the May17 - Jun 11 rally

Schatz futures traded lower again yesterday and breached support at 112.120, May 17 and Jun 21 low. Note too that price also tested the 112.110 support, Apr 20 low. Scope is seen for a move towards 112.086 and 112.075, Fibonacci retracement extensions. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 112.165, Jun 21 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure and open 112.185, the Jun 15 and 16 highs.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Watching Support

• RES 4: 128.92 1.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 3: 128.50 1.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 128.39 High Jun 11 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 128.08 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 127.44 @ Close Jun 22
• SUP 1: 126.91 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 126.12 Low May 19

Gilt futures recently traded through former resistance at 127.74, May 26 high and confirmed a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This positive price condition remains intact. Last week's pullback is considered corrective and price has remained above key short-term trend support at 126.70, Jun 3 low. A climb would open 128.39, Jun 11 high and the bull trigger. A break of 126.70 would instead be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 3: 153.40 1.236 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 152.66 1.00 proj of the May 19 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 151.68/47 High Jun 17 / High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 150.50 @ Close Jun 22
• SUP 1: 150.42 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 150.11 Low Low Jun 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 147.74 50.0% retracement of the May 19 - Jun 14 rally
• SUP 4: 149.53 Low May 28

BTP futures remain in their current bullish cycle that started Mar 19. With bulls in control, the recent pullback is considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key near-term support lies at 150.11, Jun 8 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 152.47, Jun 14 high where a break would open 152.66, a Fibonacci projection and the Feb high of 153.82 (cont) further out.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4265.00 High Jan 15, 2008
• RES 3: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 1: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4110.00 @ 05:54 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 4015.00 Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: 4004.50 Channel base from the Feb 26 low (cont)
• SUP 3: 3997.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 13

EUROSTOXX 50 futures found support Monday at the 4015.00 session low. Attention remains on Friday's sell-off that in patterns terms is a bearish engulfing candle and signals a potential top. Trend conditions are overbought and a corrective pullback would allow this set-up to unwind. A resumption of weakness would expose the 50-day EMA at 3997.20. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 4153.00, Jun 17 high. A break resumes the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4322.15 1.764 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round Number Resistance
• RES 2: 4264.41 1.618 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 4258.25 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4246.00 @ 07:00 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: 4126.75 Low Jun 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3967.00 High Mar 18

S&P E-minis tested the 50-day EMA Monday at 4145.50 and the average has provided support, as it has done on a number of occasions this year. The rally from the EMA on Jun 21 is also potentially an important bull signal and in pattern terms is a bullish piercing pattern. The key bull trigger is at 4258.25, Jun 15 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. 4126.75, low Jun 21 is key short-term support.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q1) Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018
• RES 3: $76.97 - 1.23 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $76.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $75.60 - High Apr 25, 2019 (cont)
• PRICE: $75.32 @ 06:57 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $72.16/01 - 20-day EMA / Low Jun 17
• SUP 2: $69.90 - High May 18 and the recent break out level
• SUP 3: $67.75 - Low May 25
• SUP 4: $64.50 - Low May 21 and key support

Brent crude futures have negated recent bearish concerns and extended the bounce from $72.01, Jun 17 low. The recovery has resulted in a fresh trend high and has cleared last week's $74.96 high on Jun 16. The move confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A break below $72.01 is needed to signal a top.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $76.18 - 1.50 proj of Mar 23 - 30 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.01 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $74.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $73.57 - 1.236 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• PRICE: $73.27 @ 07:06 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $69.54 - Low Jun 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: $66.80 - High May 18
• SUP 3: $66.51 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $65.02 - Low May 26

WTI crude rallied Monday and has resumed its uptrend, clearing former resistance at $72.74, Jun 16 high. The break higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signals scope for further upside with attention on $73.57, a Fibonacci projection and the $74.00 handle. On the downside, key support has been defined at $69.54, Jun 17 low. A break of this level is required to signal a top.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $1903.8/16.6 - High Jun 8 / High Jun 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 2: $1838.5 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $1781.8 07:20 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $1761.1 - Low Jun 18
• SUP 2: $1756.2 - Low Apr 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the MAr 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold is consolidating and remains vulnerable. The yellow metal traded sharply lower last week confirming a bearish cycle. The break lower resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA and the subsequent follow through signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on $1756.2, Apr 29 low and $1733.5, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $1825.4, Jun 17 high ahead of the 20-day EMA at $1838.5.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Price Conditions

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $27.245 - High Jun 17
• PRICE: $25.888 @ 07:24 BST Jun 23
• SUP 1: $25.554 - Low Jun 21
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains weak following last week's sharp sell-off. The move lower resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA. The EMA highlighted a strong area of support and levels below it also represent a zone where demand potentially exists, assuming broader sentiment remains bullish. Currently though, the break lower is bearish and attention is on $24.955 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at $27.245, Jun 17 high.