MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Strength Builds Off February Lows

Price Signal Summary – Gold Strength Builds Off February Lows

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish, despite the pullback off last week’s highs. The weakness off 5066.50 is considered corrective and support to watch lies at 4967.25, the 20-day EMA. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull cycle. The contract has resumed its uptrend and traded to a fresh cycle high on the last upleg. This reinforces current conditions and the importance of the recent break of resistance at 4634.00, the Dec 14 high.
• EURUSD conditions remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective at these levels. Last week’s bearish extension reinforces the current downtrend. The pair traded to a fresh trend low and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears to be a correction. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and note that last Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of 149.75. AUDUSD built on Friday’s firm weekly and daily close, rebuffing the bearish trend condition. The Latest bounce is still considered corrective at these levels, with last Tuesday’s initial break lower reinforcing the bearish theme. To the downside, sights rest on 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Gold traded lower into mid-February, but is building well off lows and challenging the 50-dma of $2031.71. Clearance here and above the Feb 1 high of $2065.50 would reinstate a bullish theme, with the mid-month weakness proving corrective in nature. Gains off the Feb 5 low still appear corrective at these levels. Key short-term resistance across WTI futures has been defined at $78.52, the Feb 16 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
• Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and recent short-term gains appear to have been a correction. The contract has recently breached key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low, to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27. A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and last Tuesday’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. Key support at 97.57, the Jan 25 low, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 96.67.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 3: 1.0998 High Jan 5
• RES 2: 1.0932 High Jan 24 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0839/98 High Feb 20 / 02
• PRICE: 1.0801 @ 16:14 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 1.0695 Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 1.0611 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Dec bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

EURUSD conditions remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective at these levels. Last week’s bearish extension reinforces the current downtrend. The pair traded to a fresh trend low, although has paused the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs for now. Support at 1.0724, the Dec 8 low, and 1.0712, 61.8% of the Oct - Dec bull leg, have been breached. This opens 1.0656 next, the Nov 10 low. Initial resistance at 1.0804, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2827 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2775 High Jan 24
• RES 1: 1.2684 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 1.2609 @ 08:58 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2500 Low Dec 13
• SUP 3: 1.2432 50.0% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 1.2374 Low Nov 17

A bear threat in GBPUSD remains present despite the early bounce this week. The move lower from yesterday’s high, signals the end of the recent corrective bounce. A continuation lower would open 1.2519, the Feb 5 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the current bear cycle. Recently, the pair breached 1.2597, the Jan 17 low, to confirm a range breakout, paving the way for a move towards 1.2500, the Dec 13 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2684, the Feb 13 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
• RES 2: 0.8581 50-day EMA and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20
• PRICE: 0.8565 @ 09:00 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 2: 0.8454 61.8% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

The sell-on-rallies theme was evident in EURGBP Tuesday, retaining the view that S/T strength is corrective in the cross. A bearish trend condition remains intact and the cross traded to fresh cycle lows last week, breaching support at 0.8513, the Jan 29 low. The break confirms a resumption of the bear cycle with the next objective at 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low and a key support. Key near-term resistance to watch is 0.8578, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be a bullish development.

USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Correction

• RES 4: 152.43 0.764 proj of the Dec 28 - Jan 19 - Feb 1 price swing
• RES 3: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
• RES 2: 151.43 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 150.89 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 150.14 @ 09:05 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 148.85/147.57 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 145.90 Low Feb 1 and key support
• SUP 3: 145.59 Low Jan 16
• SUP 4: 144.36 Low Jan 12

The USDJPY trend outlook remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback appears to be a correction. Recent fresh cycle highs confirm, once again, a resumption of the uptrend and note that last Tuesday’s gains resulted in a break of 149.75, the Nov 22 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 151.91/95, the Nov 13 ‘23 high and the Oct 1 ‘22 high and major resistance. Initial firm support lies at 148.85, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Clears Mid-Jan Highs

• RES 4: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 3: 163.72 High Nov 27
• RES 2: 163.13 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 162.38 High Feb 21
• PRICE: 162.07 @ 09:05 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 160.37 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 158.92/08 Low Feb 7 / 1 and key support
• SUP 3: 157.21 Low Jan 9
• SUP 4: 156.08 Low Jan 4

EURJPY maintains a firmer tone and topped the mid-Jan highs of 161.86 ahead of the Friday close - with further gains noted through the Wednesday open. With key resistance pierced the uptrend off Dec lows has resumed, opening 163.13, the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. Key short-term support is unchanged at 158.08, Feb 1 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. Initial support lies at 160.37, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Firmer Close Despite Bearish Trend Signals

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
• RES 1: 0.6625 High Jan 30 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6556 @ 09:08 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 0.6443 Low Feb 13
• SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10

AUD/USD built on Friday’s firm weekly and daily close, rebuffing the bearish trend condition. The latest bounce is still considered corrective at these levels, with last Tuesday’s initial break lower reinforcing the bearish theme. To the downside, sights rest on 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Key resistance to watch is 0.6625, the Jan 30 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6546, the 20-day EMA and a level pierced this week.

USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.3661 High Nov 27
• RES 3: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3608 High Dec 13
• RES 1: 1.3586 High Feb 13
• PRICE: 1.3534 @ 09:09 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 1.3413/3359 Low Feb 09 / Jan 31 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
• SUP 3: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 1.3229 Low Feb 1

The USDCAD trend structure remains bullish despite the sell-off late last week - a correction. Tuesday’s softer-than-expected CPI works in favour of further gains. The pair traded higher Tuesday resulting in a break of resistance at 1.3544, the Feb 5 / 6 high and bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 27 and opens 1.3623, 61.8% of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 1.3359, the Jan 31 low. Initial firm support has been defined at 1.3413, the Feb 9 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H4) Trend Condition Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 136.29 High Feb 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 135.88 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 134.60 High Feb 7
• RES 1: 134.21 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 132.94 @ 08:22 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 132.71 Low Feb 16
• SUP 2: 132.29 Low Nov 29
• SUP 3: 131.49 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - Dec 27 bull phase
• SUP 4: 130.47 Low Nov 24

Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and recent short-term gains appear to have been a correction. The contract has recently breached key short-term support at 133.55, the Jan 25 low, to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27. The focus is on 132.29 next, the Nov 29 low. For bulls, clearance of 136.29, the Feb 1 high, is required to signal a reversal. Initial resistance is at 134.21, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H4) Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 118.660 High Feb 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 118.370 High Feb 2
• RES 2: 117.880 High Feb 5
• RES 1: 117.480 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116.630 @ 08:23 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 116.440 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 116.390 Low Nov 28
• SUP 3: 116.110 1.00 proj of the Dec 27 - Jan 25 - Feb 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.820 Low Nov 24

A bearish cycle in Bobl futures remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in the breach of key support and a bear trigger at 117.280, the Jan 25 low. The clear break confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Dec 27 and sights are on 116.390, the Nov 28 low. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 118.660, the Feb 1 high. A break would be a bullish development.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H4) Southbound

• RES 4: 106.070 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 105.890 High Feb 5
• RES 2: 105.772 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.665 High Feb 9
• PRICE: 105.365 @ 08:24 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 105.295 Low Feb 19
• SUP 2: 105.260 Low Nov 24 and a key support
• SUP 3: 105.195 2.00 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 105.075 2.236 projection of the Jan 12 - 25 - 31 price swing

A downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and last week’s move lower has confirmed once again, a resumption of the current bear cycle. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position. Sights are on 105.260, the Nov 24 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 105.772, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 100.81 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 100.62 High Feb 1 and key resistance
• RES 2: 100.20 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 98.71 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 97.74 @ 08:25 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 96.81 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 96.67 Low Dec 5
• SUP 3: 96.10 Low Nov 30
• SUP 4: 95.56 Low Nov 27

A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present and last Tuesday’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the current bear cycle. Key support at 97.57, the Jan 25 low, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 96.67, the Dec 5 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 98.71, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance and the reversal trigger is at 100.62, the Feb 1 high.

BTP TECHS: (H4) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 121.43 High 27 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 120.40 High Dec 29
• RES 2: 119.77 High Jan 4
• RES 1: 119.27 High Jan 30 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 117.53 @ 08:27 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 116.67 Low Dec 13
• SUP 2: 115.70 Low Dec 8
• SUP 3: 114.10 50.0% retracement of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 113.31 Low Nov 28

The trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. Attention is on key support at 116.98, the Jan 25 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bearish cycle and open 115.70, the Dec 8 low. Firm resistance has been defined at 119.27, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H4) Pauses Below Cycle Best

• RES 4: 4939.30 2.382 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 4904.40 2.236 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 4848.00 2.00 projection of the Nov 8 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4772.00 @ 08:29 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: 4701.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4602.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4402.00 Low Jan 17 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 4370.00 Low Nov 28

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bull cycle. The contract has resumed its uptrend and traded to a fresh cycle high on the last upleg. This reinforces current conditions and the importance of the recent break of resistance at 4634.00, the Dec 14 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 4800.00 and 4848.00, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 4701.60, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (H4) Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 5170.86 2.236 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 5110.50 2.00 proj of Nov 10 - Dec 1 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 5100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 5066.50 High Feb 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4978.50 @ 08:32 GMT Feb 20
• SUP 1: 4967.25 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4866.000/4862.18 Low Jan 31 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4702.00 Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 4594.00 Low Nov 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish, despite the pullback off last week’s highs. The weakness off 5066.50 is considered corrective and support to watch lies at 4967.25, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement, possibly towards the 4866.00 key support, the Jan 31 low. The trigger for a resumption of gains is 5066.50, the Feb 12 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J4) Faded Off Highs, Strength Still Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $87.12 - High Oct 27
• RES 3: $86.03 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 2: $84.17 - High Jan 29 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $83.66 - High Feb 16
• PRICE: $81.88 @ 08:45 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: $79.88/76.62 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: $74.82 - Low Jan 03
• SUP 3: $72.96 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $70.99 - Low Jun 23 ‘23

Brent futures have faded off highs, but remain within reach of February highs. The latest recovery appears to be a correction - for now. However, a continuation higher would expose key short-term resistance at $84.17, the Jan 29 high. Clearance of this level would cancel the recent bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $86.03, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, the trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is $76.62, Feb 5 low.

WTI TECHS: (J4) Recent Gains Appear To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $85.75 - High Sep 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $84.66 - High Oct 20
• RES 2: $82.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 19 - Dec 13 bear cycle
• RES 1: $78.52 - High Feb 16 and key resistance
• PRICE: $76.55 @ 08:46 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: $75.25/71.49 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $69.79 - Low Jan 3
• SUP 3: $68.57 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Jun 12

Gains off the Feb 5 low still appear corrective at these levels. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $78.52, the Feb 16 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, support to watch lies at $71.49, the Feb 5 low. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bearish theme and pave the way for a move towards $69.79, the Jan 3 low.

GOLD TECHS: Building Well Off Pullback Low

• RES 4: $2135.4 - High Dec 4 and all-time high
• RES 3: $2097.1 - 76.4% retracement of the Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 2: $2088.5 - High Jan 12 / High Dec 28
• RES 1: $2032.3/2065.5 - High Feb 21 / Feb 1
• PRICE: $2027.1 @ 08:51 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: $1984.3 - Low Feb 14
• SUP 2: $1973.2 - Low Dec 13 and key support
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

Gold traded lower into mid-February, but is building well off lows and challenging the 50-dma of $2031.71. Clearance here and above the Feb 1 high of $2065.50 would reinstate a bullish theme, with the mid-month weakness proving corrective in nature. Any reversal and continuation lower would open $1973.2, the Dec 13 low and the next key support.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Gains

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $24.606/994 - High Dec 22 / 76.4% of Dec 4 - 13 bear leg
• RES 1: $23.534 - High Jan 12
• PRICE: $23.054 @ 08:22 GMT Feb 21
• SUP 1: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 2: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 2023

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and the recovery from Wednesday’s low appears to be a correction. The move lower earlier this week reinforces a bearish theme. The recent breach of support at $22.510, the Dec 13 low, signals scope for $21.883, the Nov 13 low. A break of this level would further strengthen the bearish theme. Initial key resistance to watch is $23.534, Jan 12 high. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a stronger reversal.