MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JPY Bears Back In The Driver's Seat

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Clears Resistance And Resumes Its Uptrend

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis rallied Thursday to erase the sell-off earlier this week. A continuation higher would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 4198.25, the Apr 18 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 13. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 4068.75, the Apr 26 low. A key short-term support in EUROSTOXX 50 futures at 4282.10 has been breached - the 20-day EMA. This highlights an extension of the pullback from 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a key resistance. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards 4210.40, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, a break of 4363.00 is required to cancel any developing bearish threat and highlight a resumption of the uptrend.
• In FX, EURUSD traded higher Wednesday to breach 1.1076, the Apr 1 2022 high. Prices have since pulled back, however, the uptrend remains intact and the move lower is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 1.1127, the 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA. It intersects at 1.0949. The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and attention is on 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2413. The average has been pierced, a clear break is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2306, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY has rallied sharply higher today. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 24. The bull trigger at 135.13, Apr 19 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Note that 135.96, 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg has been pierced. A clear break would open 136.99, the Mar 10 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 133.02, the Apr 26 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in consolidation mode. The broader trend condition is bullish, however, the yellow metal has recently entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1988.1, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. A move lower would open $1949.9, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. In the oil space, the outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and Wednesday's strong sell-off reinforces the current theme. $73.98 has been pierced today, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally. A clear break would open $72.76, the Mar 30 low. On the upside, a key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.18, the Apr 24 high.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded sharply higher on Tuesday. The contract is firmer today, a continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 135.85, 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg and the 136.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the Apr 19 low of 133.10. This is the bear trigger and a break would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme. Gilt futures have traded higher earlier this week. Prices are recovering today, a strong resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 102.09, the 20-day EMA where a break is required to highlight potential for a continuation higher. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 99.73, the Apr 19 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 1.1013 @ 05:51 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.0949 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: 1.0847/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday to breach resistance at 1.1076, the Apr 1 2022 high. Prices have since pulled back, however, the uptrend remains intact and the move lower is considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 1.1127, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode condition highlighting a rising trend. On the downside, key short-term support is unchanged at the 20-day EMA. It intersects at 1.0949.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 1.2688 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2515/2546 High Apr 26 / High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2478 @ 06:13 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.2413 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 3: 1.2298 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2191 Low Mar 24

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and attention is on 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend and open 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting an uptrend. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2413. The average has been pierced, a clear break is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2306, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.9011 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8875 High Apr 25
• PRICE: 0.8825 @ 06:29 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 0.8792 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8763 Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 4: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play despite Thursday’s pullback. Recent price action resulted in a break of trendline resistance that intersects at 0.8831 - drawn from the Feb 3 high. Also, 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has been pierced - on Apr 17. A clear break of the trendline and 0.8866 would strengthen bullish conditions and expose 0.8880 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8792, the Apr 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Clears The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 137.91 High Mar 8 and key resistance
• RES 3: 137.38 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 1: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• PRICE: 135.68 @ 10:01 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

USDJPY has rallied sharply higher today. This cancels recent bearish threats and instead highlights a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 24. The bull trigger at 135.13, Apr 19 high, has been cleared. The break confirms a resumption of the trend and paves the way for gains to 135.96, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key short-term support has been defined at 133.02, the Apr 26 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.00 1.236 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 149.51 Intraday high
• PRICE: 149.10 @ 10:04 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 146.92/29 Intraday low / Low Apr 25 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 146.24 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 145.77 Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: 144.71 50-day EMA

EURJPY is trading higher today and has cleared Tuesday’s 148.62 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and cancels recent short-term bearish threats. The move higher signals scope for a climb towards 150.00 next. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position. Key short-term support has been defined at 146.29, the Apr 25 low, where a break is required to highlight a short-term reversal.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6772/0.6806 High Apr 20 / Apr 14 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6684 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6604 @ 07:59 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 0.6565 Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6500 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD remains vulnerable. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of support at 0.6620, the Apr 10 low and has exposed 0.6565, the Mar 10 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 2. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish development.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3773 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 1: 1.3668 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3666 @ 10:08 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.3589/27 Low Apr 27 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3275 Low Feb 14

USDCAD maintains a bullish tone and is trading higher today. A key short-term resistance at 1.3648 has been cleared - 61.8% of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg. The clear break of this level strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3773, the top of a moving average envelope study. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.3520, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 136.70 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 135.85 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 135.74 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 134.14 @ 05:21 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 133.51/133.10 Low Apr 25 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures traded sharply higher earlier this week but have since retraced most of the rally. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 135.85, a Fibonacci retracement and the 136.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the Apr 19 low of 133.10. This is the bear trigger and a break would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme for a move towards 132.70, a Fibonacci retracement.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 119.009 61.8 retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 3: 118.515 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 2: 118.280 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 118.030 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 117.250 @ 05:28 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 116.720/420 Low Apr 25 / 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

A strong recovery in Bobl futures on Tuesday continues to highlight a potential short-term reversal, despite the latest pullback. A continuation higher would open 118.280, the Apr 12 high. Clearance of this level would expose 118.515, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low, where a break would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 106.060 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 105.849 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 105.720 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 105.665 @ 09:56 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 105.350/165 Intraday low / Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

A recovery in Schatz futures on Tuesday saw price trade above the 20-day EMA which intersects at 105.524 today. An extension higher would allow for a recovery towards 105.849, a Fibonacci retracement point and potentially highlight a stronger reversal set-up. On the downside, key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 / 19 low. This level is the bear trigger where a break would resume the recent downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Remains Below Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 102.12 High Apr 26
• RES 1: 101.50/102.09 High Apr 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 101.44 @ 10:03 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 100.53/99.73 Intraday low / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 99.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher earlier this week but have pulled back from Wednesday’s high to erase the recent rally. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 102.09, the 20-day EMA where a break is required to highlight potential for a stronger rally. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 99.73. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend that started Mar 20.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Watching Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 2: 114.94 High Apr 13
• RES 1: 114.61 High Apr 26
• PRICE: 113.46 @ Close Apr 27
• SUP 1: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 2: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.05 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 110.25 Low Mar 2 and a key support

BTP futures traded higher earlier this week and in the process pierced resistance at 114.18, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger corrective bounce and open 114.94, the Apr 13 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent downtrend.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M3) Bullish, Despite Thursday Pullback

• RES 4: 117-01+ High Mar 24 and bull trigger
• RES 3: 116-30 High Apr 5 / 6
• RES 2: 116-08 High Apr 12
• RES 1: 115-30+ High Apr 26
• PRICE: 114-30 @ 16:47 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 114-18+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 113-30+ Low Apr 19 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 113-23 50.0% retracement of the Mar 3 - 24 bull run
• SUP 4: 113-08+ Low Mar 15

Treasury futures maintain a bullish tone despite the intraday pullback Thursday. The recovery on Tuesday undermines the recent bearish theme and price is still above the 50-day EMA. Any return higher would open 116-08, the Apr 12 high and expose the key resistance at 117-01+, the Mar 24 high. Key support has been defined at 113-30+, the Apr 19 low. A break of this support would reinstate the recent bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4272.00 @ 10:03 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 4229.00 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 4210.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

A key short-term support in Eurostoxx 50 futures at 4285.60 has been breached - the 20-day EMA. The move lower highlights an extension of the pullback from 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and a key resistance. A continuation lower would signal scope for weakness towards 4210.40, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, a break of 4363.00 is required to cancel any developing bearish threat and highlight a resumption of the uptrend.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Strong Recovery

• RES 4: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 4198.25 High Apr 18 and key resistance
• RES 1: 4166.50 High Apr 27
• PRICE: 4149.25 @ 05:50 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 4068.75 Low Apr 26
• SUP 2: 4061.11 38.2% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg
• SUP 3: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4018.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Apr 18 bull leg

S&P E-minis rallied Thursday to erase the sell-off earlier this week. A continuation higher would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 4198.25, the Apr 18 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 13. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 4068.75, the Apr 26 low. A move below this level would highlight a short-term bearish reversal instead.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Bearish Theme

• RES 4: $89.62 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $87.86 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $86.90 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $82.88/84.83 - High Apr 25 / 19
• PRICE: $78.67 @ 06:58 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $76.52 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 bull run
• SUP 2: $75.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $74.31 - Low Mar 27
• SUP 4: $72.34 - Low Mar 24

Brent futures remain vulnerable and Wednesday's sharp sell-off reinforces the current bearish theme. The break lower signals scope for an extension towards $76.52, a Fibonacci retracement point and the $75.00 handle. Short-term key resistance has been defined at $82.88, the Apr 25 high where a break is required to ease bearish pressure and this would also highlight a potential reversal.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $85.54 - High Nov 8 2022
• RES 3: $83.38 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 1: $79-18 - High Apr 24 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $74.21 @ 10:15 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $73.93 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $72.76 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $71.76 - $61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally
• SUP 4: $70.00 - Round number support

The outlook in WTI futures remains bearish and Wednesday's strong sell-off reinforces the current theme. $73.98 has been pierced today, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally. A clear break would open $72.76, the Mar 30 low. On the upside, a key short-term resistance has been defined at $79.18, the Apr 24 high where a breach is required to ease bearish pressure. This would also highlight a potential reversal.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2015.1/2048.7 - High Apr 17 / High Apr 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $1986.0 @ 07:23 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $1969.3 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: $1949.9 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold remains in consolidation mode. The broader trend condition remains bullish, however, the yellow metal has recently entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has pierced support at $1988.1, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. A move lower would open $1949.9, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SILVER TECHS: Pierces Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.941 @ 08:10 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $23.798 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback appears - for now - to be a correction. The recent break, on Apr 4, of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. This opens $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support to watch is seen at $24.730, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.