MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Markets Watch Potential Reversal Pattern in EUR/USD

Price Signal Summary - Markets Watch Potential Reversal Pattern in EUR/USD

• S&P E-Minis are consolidating. The trend condition is bullish. The contract traded higher last week and confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 22. A key resistance and a bull trigger at 4180.00, Dec 13 high, has been pierced. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle is pointing north. Resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high, has been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 4269.50
• EURUSD is consolidating and continues to trade just ahead of support at 1.0671, the 50-day EMA. This represents a key short-term level and the recent move down is considered corrective. Tuesday’s activity is a doji candle pattern - a potential bullish reversal signal. USDJPY continues to trade below resistance at 132.81, the 50-day EMA. This average represents a key short-term level and a clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high. The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact, however, the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has pierced support at 0.6880, the 50-day EMA.
• Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, and the yellow metal remains in a corrective cycle. This follows the strong sell-off on Feb 2 / 3 and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1855.2. WTI futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The contract has pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $78.34. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen this week’s recovery and open $80.22, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Bund futures traded lower yesterday and remain at their recent lows. The contract has breached support at 136.38, the Jan 30 low and this strengthens the current bearish cycle. The focus is on 135.08 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Gilt futures traded lower yesterday to extend the current bear leg. Initial firm support to watch lies at 104.04, Jan 30 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective, however, a break of 104.04 would highlight a short-term top and expose 103.90.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1, 2022
• RES 3: 1.1054 1.236 proj of the Oct 13 -27 rally from the Jan 6 low
• RES 2: 1.0940/1.1033 High Feb 3 / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.0798 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0732 @ 05:52 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.0671/69 50-day EMA / Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 1.0634 Low Jan 9
• SUP 3: 1.0484 Low Jan 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0461 38.2% retracement of the Sep 28 - Feb 2 bull leg

EURUSD is consolidating and continues to trade just ahead of support at 1.0671, the 50-day EMA. This represents a key short-term level and the recent move down is considered corrective. Tuesday’s activity is a doji candle pattern - a potential bullish reversal signal. A recovery would refocus attention on 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would instead strengthen the recent bearish cycle and expose 1.0634, the Jan 9 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2401/2448 High Feb 2 / High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2265 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.2132 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2094 @ 06:08 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.1948 200-dma
• SUP 2: 1.1859 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.1842 Low Jan 6 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1800 Round number support

GBPUSD maintains a softer tone despite the recovery from Tuesday’s low. Recent weakness reinforces a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation. Sights are on the 200-dma next at 1.1948. A move through this level would expose key support at 1.1842, Jan 6 low. A break of 1.1842 would highlight a potential trend reversal and a possible double top. Firm resistance is 1.2265, Feb 3 high. Key resistance is 1.2448, Jan 23 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.9097 76.4% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.9023 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8992 61.8% Retracement of the Sep 26 - Dec 1 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8979 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8880 @ 06:20 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 0.8846 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8796 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8762 Low Jan 30
• SUP 4: 0.8722 Low Jan 19 and a reversal trigger

EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish despite this week’s move lower. Resistance at 0.8897, the Jan 13 high, has recently been cleared. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early December and sights are on 0.8992, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position. First key support to watch lies at 0.8846, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 136.67 38.2% retracement of the Oct 21 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 134.77 High Jan 6 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 134.54 Low Dec 14
• RES 1: 132.81/90 50-day EMA / High Feb 6
• PRICE: 131.27 @ 06:41 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 130.48 Low Feb 7
• SUP 2: 128.09/127.23 Low Feb 2 / Low Jan 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.81 1.382 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and a key support

USDJPY continues to trade below resistance at 132.81, the 50-day EMA. This average represents a key short-term level and a clear break is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would expose 134.77, the Jan 6 high The broader trend direction remains down. Firm support to watch lies at 128.09, the Feb 2 low. The bear trigger is at 127.23, the Jan 16 low - a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 145.83 High Dec 20
• RES 3: 144.53 76.4% retracement of the Dec 15 - Jan 3 bear leg
• RES 2: 144.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 142.99 High Feb 6
• PRICE: 141.02 @ 06:52 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 139.94/06 Low Feb 3 and a key support / Low Jan 20
• SUP 2: 138.49 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 137.92 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 137.39 Low Jan 3 and the bear trigger

EURJPY has failed to hold on to its recent highs and remains below 142.99, the Feb 6 high. Price has moved below the 20-day EMA. Firmer support is expected at 139.94, the Feb 3 low. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 142.99, where a break would confirm a continuation of the recovery that started on Jan 3. On the downside, a break of 139.94 would be bearish and expose key support at 137.39, the Jan 3 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Broader Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
• RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6968 @ 07:55 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 0.6856 Low Feb 6
• SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
• SUP 3: 0.6741 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3

The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact, however, the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Price has pierced support at 0.6880, the 50-day EMA. A clear break and close below the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The broader uptrend remains intact. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Recent Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 3: 1.3705 Dec 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3665 High Jan 6
• RES 1: 1.3475/3521 High Feb 6 / 19 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.3417 @ 07:58 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 1.3360/3262 Low Feb 8 / 2
• SUP 2: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3131 0.764 proj of the Oct 13 - Nov 15 - Dec 16 price swing

USDCAD is consolidating and price remains above its recent low of 1.3262 on Feb 2. A bearish trend condition remains intact and recent short-term gains are most likely a correction. A resumption of weakness and a break of 1.3262, Feb 2 low, would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3226, the Nov 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, the pair needs to clear 1.3521, the Jan 19 high, to signal a reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 142.59 0.764 proj of the Jan 2 - 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 141.70 High Dec 13
• RES 2: 140.73 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 137.75/139.86 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: 136.14 @ 05:11 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 135.62 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 135.08 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 134.52 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 133.79 Low Jan 3

Bund futures traded lower yesterday and remain at their recent lows. The contract has breached support at 136.38, the Jan 30 low and this strengthens the current bearish cycle. The focus is on 135.08 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, reinforcing current conditions. On the upside, resistance to watch is at 137.75, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 119.086 76.4% retracement of the Dec 7 - Jan 2 downleg
• RES 3: 118.880 High Jan 19 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 117.747/118.670 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 117.430 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 117.040 @ 05:28 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 116.760 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 116.540 Low Jan 4
• SUP 3: 116.405 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 19 bull run
• SUP 4: 116.030 Low Jan 3

Bobl futures maintain a weaker tone following the reversal lower from 118.670, the Feb 2 high. Key short-term support at 117.020, the Jan 30 low, has been breached. The break of this support reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 116.405, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, the resistance to watch is at 117.747, the 50-day EMA. A break above this average would ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Breaches A Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 106.296 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 2 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.130/106.155 High Feb 2 / High Jan 18 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 105.990 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.850 High Feb 7
• PRICE: 105.660 @ 05:42 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 105.590 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 105.548 76.4% retracement of the Jan 2 - 18 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 105.480 Low Jan 3
• SUP 4: 105.360 Low Jan 2 and key support

Schatz futures traded lower yesterday. Support at 105.640, the Feb 1 low, has been breached. A clear break of this level would strengthen the current bearish theme and signal scope for weakness towards 105.548, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 106.130, the Feb 2 high and 106.155, the Jan 18 high. Clearance of this resistance zone would reinstate a bullish condition.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 108.96 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 108.44 2.00 proj of the Jan 23 - 25 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: 107.78 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 105.60/106.88 High Feb 7 / 6
• PRICE: 104.81 @ Close Feb 8
• SUP 1: 104.40 Low Feb 8
• SUP 2: 104.04 Low Jan 30 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 103.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 103.21 Low Jan 17

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday to extend the current bear leg. Initial firm support to watch lies at 104.04, Jan 30 low. The latest pullback is considered corrective, however, a break of 104.04 would highlight a short-term top and expose 103.90 initially, the 50-day EMA and a key support. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger that has been defined at 107.78, the Feb 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 121.26 0.764 proj of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 118.56/96 High Jan 19 / Dec 7 and a key resistance zone
• RES 1: 116.19/118.18 High DFeb 6 / High Jan 27
• PRICE: 114.65 @ Close Feb 8
• SUP 1: 114.22/113.47 Low Feb 8 / Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 2: 112.26 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally
• SUP 3: 111.59 Low Jan 6
• SUP 4: 110.77 Low Jan 4 and 76.4% of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 rally

BTP futures traded sharply higher on Feb 2 and the contract breached resistance at 116.94, the Jan 25 high. The contract has pulled back this week. The move lower is considered corrective - for now. Key short-term support to watch lies at 113.47, the Jan 30 low. A reversal higher would signal scope for a test of firm resistance at 118.56, the Jan 19 high and 118.96, the Dec 7 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H3) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 116-00 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 115-22+ High Feb 3
• RES 2: 114-14 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 114-03 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 113-10 @ 16:20 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 113-05+ Feb 7 Low
• SUP 2: 112-29 76.4% retracement of the Dec 30 - Jan 19 bull run
• SUP 3: 112-18+ Low Jan 5
• SUP 4: 112-11+ Trendline support drawn from the Oct 21 low

A sharp pullback in Treasury futures last Friday and the continuation lower this week, highlights a bearish cycle and signals scope for an extension of the move down. The contract has breached 114-05+, the Jan 30 low and a short-term bear trigger. Note that price has also breached the 50-day EMA. This opens 112-29 next - a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 114-14, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4335.50 High Jan 6 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4303.20 2.382 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• RES 1: 4269.50 2.236 proj of the Sep 29 - Oct 4 rise from Dec 20 low
• PRICE: 4234.00 @ 05:57 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 4158.40/4097.00 20-day EMA / Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 2: 4053.00 Bull channel base drawn from the Oct 13 low
• SUP 3: 3890.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3753.00 Low Dec 20 and the bear trigger

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend needle is pointing north. Resistance at 4206.00, the Jan 18 high, has been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the current uptrend and paves the way for gains towards 4269.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the trend remains overbought. A pullback, if seen, would represent a healthy correction. Key support to watch lies at 4097.00, the Jan 19 low.

E-MINI S&P (H3): Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4361.00 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4250.00 High Aug 26, 2022
• RES 1: 4208.50 High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4145.50 @ 06:52 GMT Feb 8
• SUP 1: 4067.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4002.94 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3901.75 Low Jan 19
• SUP 4: 3788.50 Low Dec 22 and a key support

S&P E-Minis are consolidating. The trend condition is bullish. The contract traded higher last week and confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 22. A key resistance and a bull trigger at 4180.00, Dec 13 high, has been pierced. A clear break would confirm a resumption of a broader uptrend and open 4250.00, the Aug 26 2022 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 4002.94, Jan 31 low. A pullback would be considered corrective.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J3) Clears The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $90.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 bear leg
• RES 3: $89.00 - High Jan 23 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $86.66 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 bear leg
• RES 1: $85.27 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $85.17 @ 07:02 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $81.19/79.10 - Low Feb 7 / 6
• SUP 2: $77.77 - Low Jan 5
• SUP 3: $75.89 - Low Dec 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $73.48 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - Dec 12 - Jan 23 price swing

Brent futures traded higher again Wednesday, extending the bounce from Monday’s low and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. Price has traded above the 50-day EMA and attention turns to 86.66, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would expose the key resistance at $89.00, the Jan 23 high. On the downside, a break of $79.10, the Feb 6 low, is required to reinstate a recent bearish theme.

WTI TECHS: (H3) Holding On To This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: $85.33 - 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 9 bear leg
• RES 3: $83.14 - High Dec 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $80.22 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 18 - Feb 6 bear leg
• RES 1: $78.62 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $78.45 @ 07:09 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $74.34/72.25 - Low Feb 7 / 6
• SUP 2: $70.56 - Low Dec 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $67.44 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures are holding on to this week’s gains. The contract has pierced resistance at the 50-day EMA - at $78.34. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen this week’s recovery and open $80.22, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of $80.22 would expose the key resistance at $82.66, the Jan 18 high. On the downside, a break of $72.25, the Feb 6 low, would reinstate a bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $1998.4 - High Apr 18, 2022
• RES 3: $1982.0 - High Apr 19, 2022
• RES 2: $1963.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: $1895.3/1959.7 - 20-day EMA / High Feb 2
• PRICE: $1881.3 @ 07:23 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $1861.4 - Low Feb 3
• SUP 2: $1855.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1825.2 - Low Jan 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $1797.1 - Low Dec 28

Trend conditions in Gold are bearish for now, and the yellow metal remains in a corrective cycle. This follows the strong sell-off on Feb 2 / 3 and sights are on the 50-day EMA, at $1855.2. The average represents a key support and if breached, would strengthen a bearish case and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger, is at $1959.7, the Feb 2 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 3: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.228 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.497 @ 08:03 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: $21.934 - 38.2% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 2: $21.099 - 50.0% retracement of the Sep 1 - Feb 2 bull leg
• SUP 3: $20.872 - Low Nov 28
• SUP 4: $20.585 - Low Nov 21

A sharp sell-off in Silver on Feb 3 resulted in a break of $22.557, the Dec 16 low. Price has also traded below the 50-day EMA - a bearish development. The move lower highlights a range breakout and if this is correct, it warns of a short-term trend reversal. A continuation lower would open $21.934 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $23.228, the 20-day EMA ahead of $24.637, the Feb 2 high.