MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Momentum in Gold's Favour
Price Signal Summary – Momentum in Gold’s Favour
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows this week have reinforced current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend Sights are on the next important support at 5499.25. The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5311.55, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a strong short-term bear threat.
- GBPUSD is unchanged and the trend outlook remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has recently pierced a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and the latest shallow recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low on Mar 11 strengthens a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position.
- A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and yesterday’s move higher reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high and sights are on the psychological $3000 handle next. A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low.
- Bund futures are in consolidation mode and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. A recent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish. Recent gains appear corrective and the move lower this week, signals the end of the corrective cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024
- RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0947 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 1.0848 @ 06:02 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0652 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0544 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level
- SUP 3: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0317 Low Feb 12
A bullish theme in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading just below this week’s high. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and for now, are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0544, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3175 High Oct 4 2024
- RES 3: 1.3119 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.3048 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 1.2988/90 High Mar 12 / High Nov 8 2024
- PRICE: 1.2948 @ 06:17 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 1.2862 Low Mar 12
- SUP 2: 1.2762 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2644 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot support
- SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28
GBPUSD is unchanged and the trend outlook remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has recently pierced a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this price point would open 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2644, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 0.8375 @ 06:34 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 0.8369/8339 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the latest pullback appears corrective. The move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8339, the 50-day EMA. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of 0.8419, 76.4% of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg. This paves the way for a climb towards 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance.
USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Correction
- RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 151.56 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 150.18/151.30 High Mar 5 / 3 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 149.54 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 148.66 @ 06:43 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 146.54 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 145.62 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and the latest shallow recovery appears corrective. A fresh cycle low on Mar 11 strengthens a bearish theme. The move down has resulted in a print below 146.95, 61.8% of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg. This opens 145.92 next, the Oct 4 2024 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 151.30, Mar 3 high.
EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 3: 164.08 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 162.70 High Jan 28
- RES 1: 162.36 High Mar 12
- PRICE: 161.19@ 07:02 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 159.27 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 155.60 Low Mar 4
- SUP 3: 154.80 Low Feb 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains in play and the pullback from Wednesday’s cycle high is considered corrective. The cross has recently breached a resistance at 161.19, the Feb 13 high. A clear break of the hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and open 162.70, the Jan 28 high. Initial support to watch is 159.27 the 20-day EMA. Key support has been defined at 154.80, the Feb 28 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6364 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.6298 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 0.6259/6187 Low Mar 11 / Low Feb 4
- SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD is holding on to the bulk of this month's gains. A short-term bullish theme remains intact and sights are on the key resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below 0.6187, the Mar 4 low, is required to reinstate a bear threat. This would open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of the Feb 3 low would resume the medium-term downtrend.
USDCAD TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4543 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4421 @ 07:56 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The bull cycle in USDCAD that started Feb 14 remains in play, and moving average studies reinforce this condition - they remain in a bull-mode position. The pair is trading above the Mar 6 low and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a test of the S/T bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would instead expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M5) Bear Trend Remains Intact
- RES 4: 130.40 Low Feb 19
- RES 3: 129.96 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 129.41 Low Jan 14
- RES 1: 128.33 High Mar 10
- PRICE: 127.41 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 126.53 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 126.28 2.618 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 126.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 123.36 3.00 proj of the Feb 5 - 19 - 28 price swing
Bund futures are in consolidation mode and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. A bearish theme remains intact. A recent impulsive sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 126.28 next, a Fibonacci projection. Further out, 126.00 is also within range. Note that the contract is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance to watch is seen at 129.41, the Jan 14 low.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Bear Cycle Remains
- RES 4: 118.310 Low Mar 3
- RES 3: 118.090 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 117.850 Low Feb 20
- RES 1: 117.316 38.2% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 6 sell-off
- PRICE: 116.890 @ 05:49 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 116.250 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 116.309 3.618 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 116.202 3.764 proj of the minor Feb 28 - Mar 3 - 4 price swing
Bobl futures are trading closer to their recent lows. A bear threat remains in play. Former support at 117.850, the Feb 20 low, has recently been cleared. The sell-off signals scope for an extension towards 116.000. The contract is in oversold territory. Gains would be considered corrective and a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is seen at 117.850, the Feb 20 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.905 High Mar 5
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.762 50.0% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- PRICE: 106.680 @ 06:09 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 106.530/405 Low Mar 10 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.350 2.000% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 3: 106.259 2.236% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
- SUP 4: 106.203 2.382% retracement proj of the Feb 19 - Mar 4
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact with price continuing to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest move down resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The trend is oversold and the latest bounce is allowing this to unwind. First resistance is 106.762, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILT TECHS: (M5) Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 93.79 High Mar 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 93.06 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 1: 92.63 High Mar 7 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 91.67 @ Close Mar 13
- SUP 1: 91.07/90.71 Low Mar 13 / 6
- SUP 2: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 90.19 1.764 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 89.71 2.000 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing
The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish. Recent gains appear corrective and the move lower this week, signals the end of the corrective cycle. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 91.79, the Feb 20 low. This level also represented a bear trigger and the breach signals scope for a continuation lower, with sights on 90.49 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 92.63, Mar 5 high.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Oversold But Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 120.39 High Feb 28
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 118.56 High Mar 5
- RES 1: 116.98 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 116.24 @ Close Mar 13
- SUP 1: 115.77 Low Mar 12
- SUP 2: 115.52 2.618 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 115.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 114.81 3.000 proj of the Feb 7 - 19 - 28 price swing
BTP futures remain in a clear bear-mode condition and the contract traded to a fresh cycle low on Wednesday. The latest move down has resulted in a breach of key support at 116.78, the Jan 14 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and opens 115.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. The downtrend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial firm resistance is seen at 118.56, the Mr 5 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5611.50 2.500 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 ‘24 price swing
- RES 3: 5606.00 3.000 proj of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Jan 8 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5410.68/5575.00 20-day EMA / High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5347.00 @ 06:21 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 5284.00 Low Mar 11
- SUP 2: 5249.00 Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: 5202.00 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5185.00 Low Feb 4
The medium-term trend direction in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. However, support at the 50-day EMA, at 5311.55, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a strong short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the 5600.00 handle.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Approaching The Next Key Support
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6166.50 High Jan 19
- RES 2: 5932.70 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 5675.00/5822.79 High Mar 12 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5557.50 @ 07:24 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: 5509.25 Low Mar 13
- SUP 2: 5499.25 Low Sep 9 2024
- SUP 3: 5444.55 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 ‘24 bull leg
- SUP 4: 54000.00 Round number support
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows this week have reinforced current conditions. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend Sights are on the next important support at 5499.25, the Sep 9 2024 low. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5932.70, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $79.98 - High Jan 15 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: $76.78 - High Feb 11 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $73.26 - 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance
- RES 1: $71.92 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $70.67 @ 07:05 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: $68.33 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $67.87 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $66.36 1.618 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.90 2.000 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
The trend condition in Brent futures is unchanged and the current direction remains down. The latest sell-off resulted in the breach of a number of support points and price has delivered a break of the $70.00 handle. The move down maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $67.87, the Sep 10 2024 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is unchanged at $73.26, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (J5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $73.33 - High Feb 11 and key resistance
- RES 2: $69.96 - 50-day EMA
- RES 1: $68.36 - Low Feb 26
- PRICE: $67.27 @ 07:18 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: $65.22 - Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: $63.61 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $58.01 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 6 - 11 price swing
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest sell-off resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance is $69.96, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Fresh All-Time High
- RES 4: $3056.8 - 2.500 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3034.5 - 2.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 2: $3006.9 - 2.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- PRICE: $2981.3 @ 07:25 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: $2906.5/2840.0 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $2758.3 - Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: $2730.6 - Low Jan 27
A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and yesterday’s move higher reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high and sights are on the psychological $3000 handle next. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Key short-term trend support has been defined at $2832.7, the Feb 28 low.
SILVER TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.548 - High Oct 29 ‘24
- RES 1: $33.971 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $33.933 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 14
- SUP 1: $32.392 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $31.788/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28 and key support
- SUP 3: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 4: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and a bear trigger
Silver has traded higher this week and in the process cleared key resistance at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for a climb towards $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a medium-term bull trigger. Key trend support has been defined at $30.814, the Feb 28 low.