MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Oil  Bear Cycle Extends

Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Have Started The Week On A Bearish Note

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain in an uptrend but price is still trading below its recent high of 4050.75, on Nov 15. A recent period of consolidation in the daily chart appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern. This reinforces the uptrend as did the recent break of 3928.00, Nov 1 high, establishing a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The focus is on 4100.00 next. Initial firm support lies at 3883.77, the 50-day EMA. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Last week’s move higher maintains the recovery that started in early October and marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on the 4000.00 psychological handle next. Initial firm support lies at 3840.00, the Nov 17 low.
• In FX, EURUSD remains above last Monday’s low. Attention is on the key short-term resistance at 1.0479, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0536, the Jun 29 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 1.0223, the Nov 21 low. Last week’s climb in GBPUSD marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.2185, the 200-dma. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 1.1771, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY short-term trend conditions remain bearish. The sell-off from last Monday’s high signalled the end of the recent corrective bounce between Nov 15 - 22. Attention is on the bear trigger at 137.68, the Nov 15 low, which has been pierced. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 142.25, the Nov 21 high.
• On the commodity front, short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.2, the Oct 4 high. This has strengthened the current bullish theme and opens $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high. Firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low. First support lies at $1726.4, the 20-day EMA. In the Oil space, WTI futures have started the week on a bearish note. Today’s sell-off has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at $74.96, the Sep 28 low. This confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and has opened $73.38, 1.00 projection of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing and the $70.00 psychological handle. Initial resistance is at $79.90, Friday’s high.
• In the FI space, Bund futures maintain a bullish tone despite Friday's pullback. Last week’s breach of 141.09, the Nov 17 high, reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has also cleared the 50-day EMA at 140.12. The clear break of this average highlights a stronger short-term reversal. Potential is seen for a climb towards 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 139.64. Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish and the contract resumed its uptrend last week. Fresh cycle highs maintain the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving averages appear to be highlighting a bull mode set-up. If confirmed this would reinforce the uptrend. The bull trigger for a continuation of gains is 107.06, last Thursday’s high. Initial firm support lies at 104.78, the Nov 23 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High NOv 24 / Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.0479 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0355 @ 06:12 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.0297 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 1.0223/0198 Low NOv 21 / High Sep 12
• SUP 3: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 4: 1.0085 50-day EMA

EURUSD remains above 1.0223, the Nov 21 low. Last week’s recovery signals the potential end of a correction between Nov 15 - 21 and sights are on key short-term resistance at 1.0479, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0536, the Jun 29 high. On the downside, 1.0223 marks the key short-term support. A break would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence Remains Intact

• RES 4: 122.93 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2276 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 1.2185 200-dma
• RES 1: 1.2154/64 High Nov 24 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.2059 @ 06:20 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.2000/1.1873 Round number support / Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 1.1771 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1617 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.1500 Round number support

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish. Last week’s gains confirmed an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting current market sentiment. The focus is on 1.2185 next, the 200-dma. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 1.1771, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8776 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 0.8683 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8593 @ 06:48 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 0.8572 Low Nov 24
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. Attention is on the Oct 31 low of 0.8560, where a break would strengthen a bearish theme. This would open 0.8522, the Aug 30 low. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull mode position and this suggests that the broader uptrend is intact. A break of 0.8560 would threaten this bullish theme. Key resistance is at 0.88290, the Nov 9 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 143.02 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 139.64/142.25 High Nov 24 / High Nov 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 137.60 @ 10:28 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 137.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish following last week’s move lower. The reversal from 142.25, the Nov 21 high, signalled the end of the corrective bounce between Nov 15 - 22. Attention is on the bear trigger at 137.68, the Nov 15 low which has been pierced. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 142.25.

EURJPY TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 145.07/146.14 20-day EMA / High Nov 24
• PRICE: 143.30 @ 07:02 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 143.05 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 142.57 Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 3: 141.60 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

EURJPY has started the week on a softer note with price trading lower today. The cross last week failed to confirm a clear break of short-term trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 21 high. The trendline intersects at 145.58. Key short-term resistance at 141.10 also remains intact, Nov 9 high. This cements the underlying bearish threat. An extension lower would open the bear trigger at 142.57, Nov 11 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6797 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6694 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 0.6634 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 0.6583 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bullish and last week’s recovery reinforces this theme. Firm support lies at 0.6583, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a break of 0.6797, the Nov 15 high, would resume the uptrend and open the 0.6800 handle.

USDCAD TECHS: Has Pierced The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3616 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3495 High Nov 21
• PRICE: 1.3451 @ 08:03 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD is firmer and attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.3439 and has again been pierced. A firm break of this average would undermine the recent bearish theme and would expose 1.3571, Nov 10 high, where a break would also signal scope for a recovery towards 1.3616, trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high. Key support and the bear trigger is at 1.3226, the Nov 15 low. A break would resume bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 144.29 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 2: 142.75 38.2% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bear leg
• RES 1: 142.60 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 141.21 @ 05:06 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 139.64/138.26 20-day EMA / Low Nov 14
• SUP 2: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 135.23 Low Oct 24

Bund futures maintain a bullish tone despite Friday's pullback. Last week’s breach of 141.09, the Nov 17 high, reinforced bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend. Price has also cleared the 50-day EMA at 140.12. The clear break of this average highlights a stronger short-term reversal. Potential is seen for a climb towards 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial firm support - it intersects at 139.64.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.700 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 120.030 @ 05:12 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 119.714 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 119.180 Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 118.710 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 118.260 Low Nov 8 and a key support

Bobl futures traded higher last Thursday, piercing resistance at 120.530, the Nov 10 high. The outlook remains bullish, despite Friday’s pullback and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 120.167. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen bullish conditions and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 119.180, the Nov 14 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Still Looking For A Break To The Upside

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.092 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.775 @ 05:30 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate, with support at the Nov 8 low intact. The trend condition remains bearish, however, a break higher would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.076. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 105.89 High Nov 25
• PRICE: 105.36 @ Close Nov 25
• SUP 1: 104.78 Low Nov 23
• SUP 2: 103.54 Low Nov 21 and key near-term support Low Nov 16
• SUP 3: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)

Short-term trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish and the contract resumed its uptrend last week. Fresh cycle highs maintain the current bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving averages appear to be highlighting a bull mode set-up. If confirmed this would reinforce the uptrend. The focus is on a climb towards 109.47 next, the Aug 31 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 103.54, the Nov 21 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 123.71 123.6 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 121.66 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 119.44 @ Close Nov 25
• SUP 1: 118.31/117.36 Low Nov 24 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 116.25 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 115.58 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 114.68 Low Nov 10

BTP futures traded to fresh short-term cycle highs last week. The outlook is bullish and last week’s break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Price has traded above the 120.00 handle and this reinforces current conditions. The focus is on 122.00 next. On the downside, initial firm support is at 117.36, the 20-day EMA.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Pierces Resistance

• RES 4: 115-14+ 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 downleg
• RES 3: 114-17 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 113-115 High Nov 25
• PRICE: 112-26+ @ 14:56 GMT Nov 25
• SUP 1: 112-14+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-04 Low Nov 21 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 111-27+ Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 110-12+ Low Nov 10

Treasury futures have pierced the Nov 16, 113-11 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the current uptrend and signal scope for a continuation higher. Price continues to trade above the 50-day EMA - the recent break of this average strengthens the case for bulls. Sights are on 113-30 next, the Oct 4 high and a key short-term resistance. Key support to watch is at 112-04, the Nov 21 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 3: 4049.50 High Feb 23 (cont)
• RES 2: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 3977.00 High Nov 24
• PRICE: 3937.00 @ 05:39 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 3840.00 Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 17 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 3: 3683.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3562.00 Low Nov 3

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains maintains the recovery that started in early October and confirms an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent break of resistance at 3810.00, Aug 17 high, also strengthened the case for bulls. The focus is on the 4000.00 psychological handle. Initial firm support is at 3840, Nov 17 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4050.75 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4008.25 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: 3924.36/3883.77 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

The S&P E-Minis outlook remains bullish and last week’s gains have reinforced this theme. Furthermore, recent consolidation in the daily chart appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation pattern. The contract has recently breached 3928.00, Nov 1 high, establishing a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 4100.00 next. Initial firm support lies at 3883.77, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 3: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $91.25 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $86.87 - High Nov 25
• PRICE: $81.22 @ 10:27 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $80.61 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $80.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $77.56 - 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 major uptrend
• SUP 4: $75.75 - Low Dec 27 2021 (cont)

Brent futures trend conditions remain bearish and the contract has started the week on a softer note. Price has pierced key support at $80.94, the Sep 26 low and a bear trigger. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend and pave the way for weakness towards the $80.00 handle. Clearance of $80.00 would also represent a bearish development. Resistance is at $86.87, the Nov 25 high.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: $94.11 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $89.20/92.53 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 2: $82.43/84.58 - High Nov 18 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $79.90 - High Nov 25
• PRICE: $73.937 @ 05:53 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $73.38 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 2: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $66.04 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

WTI futures have started the week on a bearish note. Today’s sell-off has resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger at $74.96, the Sep 28 low. This confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and has opened $73.38, a Fibonacci projection and the $70.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting the current trend direction. Initial resistance is at $79.90, Friday’s high.

GOLD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1752.3 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $1729.2 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This has strengthened a bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high. The bull trigger is at $1786.5, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low. First support to watch is at the 20-day EMA that intersects at $1729.2.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Above Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 1: $22.251/253 - High Nov 15 / 50.0% of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $21.268 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 28
• SUP 1: $20.585 - Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: $20.289 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and subsequent gains resulted in a breach of resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens short-term bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, opening $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. First support is seen at $20.585, the Nov 21 low.