MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Clears $100 Barrier

Price Signal Summary - Oil Clears $100 Barrier

• In the equity space, E-Mini S&P technical conditions remain bearish and a strong impulsive sell-off has resumed once again today. The move lower has resulted in a break of support at 4212.75, the Jan 24 low resulting in fresh lows for the year. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are down sharply today as a risk averse mood weighs on price. The break lower confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Nov 18 last year.
• In FX, EURUSD remains vulnerable as the recent bearish wave resumes. This has resulted in a break of support at 1.1280, Feb 14 low and the pair has tested the 76.4% retracement of the recent Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg. GBPUSD is trading lower this morning and has tested support at 1.3487. A break of this level would highlight a short-term range breakout and suggest scope for a deeper pullback that potentially would expose 1.3358, the Jan 27 low and a key support. USDJPY is lower again today and has traded to a fresh weekly low. The pair is also back below the 50-day EMA that intersects at 114.16. A clear break below of average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the next firm support at 114.16, Feb 2 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in an uptrend and the recent strong impulsive rally resumed today in line with a spike in the current risk averse climate. The yellow metal has cleared $1916.6, the Jun 1 2021 high and a key bull trigger. WTI futures have traded higher again today and confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Furthermore, the move higher confirms an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• In the FI space, Bund futures have traded sharply higher today, reversing Tuesday’s pullback and have breached resistance at 167.17, Feb 22 high and trendline resistance at 167.20. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains down however there is still a near-term risk for a stronger corrective bounce.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Under Pressure

• RES 4: 1.1608 High Nov 9, 2021
• RES 3: 1.1558 38.2% retracement of the May ‘21 - Jan 28 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1396/1.1495 High Feb 16 / High Feb 10
• RES 1: 1.1313 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1247 @ 06:12 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 1.1209 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Feb 10 rally
• SUP 2: 1.1121 Low Jan 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1168 Low Jun 19 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1115 Low Jun 2 2020

EURUSD remains vulnerable as the recent bearish wave resumes. This has resulted in a break of support at 1.1280, Feb 14 low and the pair has tested the 76.4% retracement of the recent Jan 28 - Feb 10 upleg. A breach of this level would pave the way for a sell-off towards key support at 1.1121, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1396, Feb 16 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Tests Support

• RES 4: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 3: 1.3681/49 200-dma / High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3662 High Jan 20
• RES 1: 1.3643/44 High Feb 18 / 10
• PRICE: 1.3499 @ 06:52 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 1.3486/87 Intraday low / Low Feb 15
• SUP 2: 1.3435 Low Feb 1
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Jan 27 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3301 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Jan 13 bull phase

GBPUSD is trading lower this morning and has tested support at 1.3487. A break of this level would highlight a short-term range breakout and suggest scope for a deeper pullback that potentially would expose 1.3358, the Jan 27 low and a key support. For bulls, clearance of 1.3644, the Feb 10 high would instead confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend. This would expose 1.3749, the Jan 13 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Remains Above Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Dec 22
• RES 3: 0.8480 61.8% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8432/78 High Feb 11 / High Feb 7
• RES 1: 0.8383/8403 High Feb 22 / High Feb 16
• PRICE: 0.8329 @ 06:58 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 0.8306/8285 Intraday low / Feb 3 and key support
• SUP 2: 0.8282/77 Low Feb’20 / Dec’19 and key bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8242 50% Fibonacci Retracement 2015-2020 Upleg
• SUP 4: 0.8238 0.764 proj of the Dec 8 - Feb 3 - 7 Price swing

EURGBP has today traded below 0.8311, Tuesday low to again reinforce the dominant bearish theme. A continuation lower would expose support and the near-term bear trigger of 0.8285, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would signal a resumption of the downtrend. If the cross can hold above 0.8285 and clear initial resistance at 0.8383, the Feb 22 high, this would represent a short-term bullish development.

USDJPY TECHS: Eyeing Support At 114.16

• RES 4: 118.07 2.236 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 3: 117.08 2.00 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 2021 price swing
• RES 2: 116.34/35 High Feb 10 / High Jan 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.24/87 High Feb 22 / High Feb 15
• PRICE: 114.47 @ 07:08 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 114.41 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 114.16 Low Feb 02
• SUP 3: 113.47 Low Jan 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 113.14 Low Dec 17

USDJPY is lower again today and has traded to a fresh weekly low. The pair is also back below the 50-day EMA that intersects at 114.16. A clear break below of average would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the next firm support at 114.16, Feb 2 low. Moving average studies still highlight a bullish theme and a resumption of strength would refocus attention on the 116.34/35 key resistance. For now, attention is on support.

EURJPY TECHS: Sharp Sell-Off

• RES 4: 133.48 High Oct 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 133.15 High Feb 10 and key resistance
• RES 2: 130.90/131.91 High Feb 21 / High Feb 16
• RES 1: 130.07 Intraday high
• PRICE: 128.62 @ 07:18 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 128.36 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 128.25 Low Jan 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 127.52 Low Dec 20
• SUP 4: 127.39 Low Dec 3 / 6

EURJPY has traded sharply lower today and delivered a low print of 128.36, just ahead of key support at 128.25, the Jan 25 low. A break of this support would confirm a 100.0% retracement of the recent Jan 25 - Feb 10 bull phase and signal potential for a deeper pullback. This would open 127.52, the Dec 20 low and 127.39, the Dec 3 and 6 low. Initial resistance is seen at today’s 130.07 intraday high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pulls Away From Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: 0.7371 High Nov 15, 2021
• RES 3: 0.7322 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.7314 High Jan 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7284 High Feb 23
• PRICE: 0.7178 @ 07:24 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 0.7164 Low Feb 21
• SUP 2: 0.7086/7052 Low Feb 14 / Low Feb 4
• SUP 3: 0.6968/6963 Low Jan 28 / Low Jul 16, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14, 2020

AUDUSD failed to hold onto yesterday’s high and is trading lower this morning. This leaves the key resistance at 0.7314 intact for now, the Jan 13 high. A deeper pullback would signal potential for a test of support at 0.7086, Feb 14 low that also represents a key short-term support handle. On the upside, clearance of the 0.7284 (Feb 23) to 0.7314 zone is required to strengthen the case for bulls.

USDCAD TECHS: Probes Resistance

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2843 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2809 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.2726 @ 16:51 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 1.2689/36 50-day EMA / Low Feb 10 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.2560 Low Jan 26
• SUP 3: 1.2451/48 Low Jan 19 / 76.4% of the Oct - Dec rally
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10

USDCAD is trading higher and has probed resistance at 1.2797, Jan 28 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear breach of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.2843, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 20 - Jan 19 sell-off. Clearance of this level would open 1.2964, the Dec 20 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.2636, Feb 10 low where a break is required to alter the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H2) Trades Through Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 170.42 High Jan 27
• RES 3: 169.68 50.0% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg
• RES 2: 168.66 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 167.82 Intraday high
• PRICE: 167.51 @ 04:43 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 165.16 Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: 164.34 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 164.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 163.63 Low Mar, 2019 (cont)

Bund futures have traded sharply higher today, reversing Tuesday’s pullback and have breached resistance at 167.17, Feb 22 high and trendline resistance at 167.20. The trendline is drawn from the Dec 20 high. This signals scope for a stronger short-term correction and has opened the 50-day EMA at 168.66. This EMA represents a key resistance area. Initial support to watch is at 165.16, the Feb 22 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H2) Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 132.680 High Jan 31
• RES 3: 132.400 Low Jan 19
• RES 2: 132.153 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 131.890 High Feb 22
• PRICE: 131.650 @ 06:04 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 130.730 Low Feb 22 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.510 Low Feb 15
• SUP 3: 130.080 Low Feb 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 130.000 Psychological round number

Bobl futures have resumed their recent uptrend, trading higher today and above resistance at 131.750, the Feb 22 high. The climb signals scope for a stronger short-term correction and has exposed the 50-day EMA at 132.153. This EMA represents a key resistance area and a clear break would strengthen the case for short-term bulls. Initial support to watch is at 130.710, the Feb 22/23 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H2) Is Back Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 112.145 High Jan 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 112.070 High Jan 27
• RES 2: 112.020 High Jan 31
• RES 1: 111.965 High Feb 22
• PRICE: 111.925 @ 06:47 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 111.635 Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 111.545/420 Low Feb 15 / Low Feb 11
• SUP 3: 111.250/208 Low Feb 7 / 2.50 proj of Dec 20-Jan 19-24 swing
• SUP 4: 111.185 Low Jun 26, 2015 (cont)

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains bearish however, the contract is still in a corrective cycle, following the recovery from 111.250, the Feb 7 low. The contract has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and is back above the 50-day EMA. The latter average intersects at 111.874 today and a clear break would signal scope for a stronger rally towards 112.145, Jan 24 high. Initial firm support has been defined at 111.635, the Feb 23 low.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Remains Below Resistance For Now

• RES 4: 125.04 1.236 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 3: 124.47 1.00 proj of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing
• RES 2: 124.00 Round number support
• RES 1: 123.53 High Feb 18 and the near-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 122.37 @ Close Feb 23
• SUP 1: 122.04 Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: 121.10 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 121.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 120.00 Psychological handle

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday. The medium-term trend condition remains down however there is still a near-term risk for a stronger corrective bounce. Initial resistance to watch is at 123.53, the Feb 18 high where a break would confirm a resumption of the recent recovery from the 121.10 low of Feb 16. This support level also represents a key short-term support and is the trigger for a resumption of the primary downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (H2) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 143.72 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 142.55 High Feb 4
• RES 2: 140.91/14 20-day EMA / High Jan 9
• RES 1: 140.33 High Feb 18
• PRICE: 139.101 @ Close Feb 23
• SUP 1: 138.06 Low Feb 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 137.52 Low May 18, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 136.86 Low May 13, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.52 2.0% 10-dma envelope

BTP futures remain in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. However from a short-term perspective, it is possible that a stronger corrective bounce will result in an extension higher. Resistance to watch is at 140.33, Feb 18 high where a break would expose the 20-day EMA at 140.91. This average represents a key resistance level. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 138.06, Feb 16 low.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (H2): Bear Trend Extends, Delivering A Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 4586.00 High Feb 2
• RES 3: 4508.04 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 4429.81 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 4224.50 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4332.25 @ 14:04 GMT Feb 23
• SUP 1: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 3990.50 0.764 proj of the Jan 4 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

E-Mini S&P technical conditions remain bearish and a strong impulsive sell-off has resumed once again today. The move lower has resulted in a break of support at 4212.75, the Jan 24 low resulting in fresh lows for the year and a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The focus is on the 4100.00 handle and 3990.50, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 4224.50, today’s intraday high.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H2) Fresh Cycle Lows

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13
• RES 2: 4153.30/4250.00 50-day EMA / High Feb 2
• RES 1: 4049.50 High Feb 23
• PRICE: 3811.00 @ 05:34 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: 3800.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 3727.00 Low Mar 25 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: 3709.60 1.382 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing
• SUP 4: 3663.50 1.50 proj of the Jan 5 - 24 - Feb 2 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are down sharply today as a risk averse mood weighs on price. The break lower confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Nov 18 last year. Futures have this week cleared a number of key support levels and from a technical viewpoint, this suggests scope for a deeper sell-off. Attention is on the 3800.00 handle and 3727.00, the Mar 25 2021 low. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 4049.50, yesterday’s high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (J2) Clears The $100.00 Mark

• RES 4: $105-62 - 3.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $105.00 - Round number support
• RES 2: $104.04 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $102.08 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $101.48 @ 04:57 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: $95.80 - Low Feb 22
• SUP 2: $92.45 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $90.12/87.72 - Low Feb 18 / Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $87.34 - 50-day EMA

Brent futures have resumed their uptrend once again. Today’s key technical development has been the breach of the key psychological barrier at $100.00. This marks an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and paves the way for a climb towards $104.04 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support is seen at $95.80, the Feb 22 low.

WTI TECHS: (J2) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: $100.44 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 3: $100.00 - Psychological barrier
• RES 2: $97.91 - 3.00 proj of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing
• RES 1: $97.18 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $96.75 @ 05:34 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: $90.64 - Low Feb 23
• SUP 2: $87.46 - Low Feb 18 and a key support
• SUP 3: $84.92 - Low Feb 1
• SUP 4: $83.73 - 50-day EMA

WTI futures have traded higher again today and confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend. Furthermore, the move higher confirms an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on $97.91 next, a Fibonacci projection and the contract is closing in on the key psychological $100.00 handle. On the downside, initial support is seen at $90.64, Wednesday’s low.

GOLD TECHS: Trades Above The Top Of Its Bull Channel

• RES 4: $1980.8 - 2.00 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $1957.1 - 1.764 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: $1959.4 - High Jan 6 2021
• RES 1: $1949.0 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1939.3 @ 05:20 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: $1908.8 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1879.6/53.9 - High Feb 15 / High Jan 25
• SUP 3: $1844.7 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

Gold remains in an uptrend and the recent strong impulsive rally resumed today in line with a spike in the current risk averse climate. The yellow metal has cleared $1916.6, the Jun 1 2021 high and a key bull trigger. Note that price has also arrived at the top of its bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 2021 low. The channel top intersects at $1938.4 - a key resistance area. An extension higher would open $1957.1. First support is at $1908.9.

SILVER TECHS: Accelerates Higher

• RES 4: $26.467 - High Jul 14, 2021
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Aug 4, 2021
• RES 2: $25.406 - High Nov 16, 2021 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $25.151 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $25.070 @ 08:33 GMT Feb 24
• SUP 1: $23.989 - Low Feb 15
• SUP 2: $23568 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.863/008 - Low Feb 11 / Low Feb 3 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: $21.949 - Low Jan 7

Silver remains bullish and has traded sharply higher today. The bullish follow through suggests scope for a continuation higher towards $25.406, the Nov 16 2021 high, now that $24700, the Jan 20 high has been breached. Clearance of $25.406 would strengthen the case further for bulls. On the downside, initial support lies at $23.989, the Feb 15 high. Dips would be considered corrective.