MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Oil Futures Unwind An Oversold Trend Condition

Price Signal Summary - Bound In Oil Futures Considered Corrective

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis reversed course Friday and prices have climbed back above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4099.70. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Key support has been defined at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A key short-term support in EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Friday and price has remained above support at 4224.30, the 50-day EMA. The broader uptrend remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a top.
• In FX, the EURUSD uptrend remains intact. Attention is on 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.1127, the 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting positive sentiment. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.0942, the May 2 low. The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and a fresh cycle high today reinforces current conditions. The pair last week traded through 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high and the focus is on 1.2667, the May 27 high from last year. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2478. USDJPY appears vulnerable near-term following last week’s bearish price action. Price has pierced support at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 133.90. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is unchanged at 137.91, the Mar 8 high. Initial firm resistance is at 136.63, last Wednesday’s high.
• On the commodity front, despite Friday’s move lower, Gold remains in an uptrend. The yellow metal has breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 high ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low. In the {7I} oil space, WTI futures remain bearish despite the strong recovery from last Thursday’s intraday low of $63.64. The trend condition was oversold last week and the recovery is allowing this to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, last week’s print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.
• In the FI space, Bund futures trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The focus is on 137.55, the 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg. Clearance of this level would open 138.09, the Apr 6 high. On the downside, initial firm support is at 135.34, the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.1225 1.236 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.1043@ 05:48 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 1.0967/42 Low May 5 / 2 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.0909 Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: 1.0883/31 50-day EMA / Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD bullish conditions remain intact. Attention is on 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting positive sentiment. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.0942, the May 2 low. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 3: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 2: 1.2733 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• PRICE: 1.2651 @ 06:15 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 1.2548/2478 Low May 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2436 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and a fresh cycle high today reinforces current conditions. The pair last week traded through 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high and the focus is on 1.2667, the May 27 high from last year. A bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows remains intact and moving average studies are in a bull mode position. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2478.

EURGBP TECHS: Pierces Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8806 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8768 High May 5
• PRICE: 0.8729 @ 06:35 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 0.8713 Low May 5
• SUP 2: 0.8691 Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 4: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022

EURGBP traded lower again Friday and in the process pierced key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 3 and pave the way for a move towards 0.8691, the Dec 19 2022 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8835, the May 3 high. A break would ease a bearish threat. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8875, the Apr 25 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 136.63/137.91 High May 3 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• RES 1: 135.64 50.0% retracement of the May 2 - 4 bear leg
• PRICE: 134.74 @ 07:00 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 133.50 Low May 5
• SUP 2: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 132.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - May 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13

USDJPY appears vulnerable near-term following last week’s bearish price action. Price has breached the 20-day EMA and pierced support at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 133.90. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance is unchanged at 137.91, the Mar 8 high. Initial firm resistance is at 136.63, last Wednesday’s high.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 149.27/150.39 Intraday high / High May 3
• PRICE: 149.02 @ 09:57 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 149.13 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 146.92 Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 146.29 Low Apr 25 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 145.71 50-day EMA

Last week’s sell-off in EURJPY resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA (at 147.61). A continuation lower and a clear break of the EMA would expose key support at 146.29, the Apr 25 low, ahead of the 50-day EMA which intersects at 145.71. The move lower is considered corrective - trend signals continue to highlight an uptrend. Key resistance has been defined at 151.61, the May 2 high. Initial resistance is seen at 149.27, today’s intraday high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6806 High Apr 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6788 @ 07:57 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 0.6709 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6640/6565 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 0.6565 Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD is trading higher today and is extending gains above the 50-day EMA. The focus is on key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support to watch lies at 0.6565, Mar 10 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish and would instead resume the downtrend that started Feb 2.

USDCAD TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3537/3640 50-day EMA / High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3473 Low Apr 21
• PRICE: 1.3354 @ 08:06 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 1.3443 Low May 5
• SUP 2: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2

USDCAD remains soft following last week’s sell-off and bearish acceleration on Friday. Price has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this suggests scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 1.3302, the Apr 14 low where a break would strengthen bearish conditions and open 1.3275, the Feb 14 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3537, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 137.22 High May 4
• PRICE: 135.61 @ 09:46 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 135.46 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 135.34 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.35 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 133.64/133.10 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

Bund futures trend conditions remain bullish and the recent pullback appears to be a correction. The focus is on 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open 138.09, the Apr 6 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at the Apr 19 low of 133.10. This is the bear trigger and a break would reinstate the recent bearish theme. Initial firm support is at 135.34, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 2: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 119.120 High May 4
• PRICE: 118.500 @ 05:27 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 118.110 Low May 3
• SUP 2: 117.805 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

A recovery in Bobl futures last week reinforces a bullish theme. The contract cleared recent resistance at 118.030, the Apr 26 high, and this confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Apr 19. The focus is on a climb towards 119.190 next, the Apr 6 high and 119.621, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support has been defined at 116.420, the Apr 19 low. Initial firm support is 117.805, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 106.533 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.271 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 106.120 High May 4
• PRICE: 105.895 @ 06:15 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 105.644/350 20-day EMA / Low Apr 28
• SUP 2: 105.475/350 Low May 2 / Low Apr 28
• SUP 3: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.030 Low Mar 15

Schatz futures bullish conditions remain intact following last week’s gains and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The focus is on 106.190, the Apr 6 high and 106.271, a Fibonacci retracement point. Price has recently cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA, reinforcing bullish conditions. Key support has been defined at 105.165, the Apr 24 / 19 low. Initial firm support lies at 105.644, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 1: 115.84 High May 4
• PRICE: 114.87 @ Close May 8
• SUP 1: 114.12 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures traded higher last week, extending the bull cycle that started Apr 24. The recovery signals scope for a climb towards 116.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would open 116.97, the Apr 6 high ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 112.93, the Apr 24 low. Initial firm support is 114.12, last Thursday’s low.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M3) Bias Remains Higher Despite Friday Dip

• RES 4: 118-00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 117-29+ High Aug 26 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 117-01+ High Mar 24 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 117-00 High May 4
• PRICE: 115-25+ @ 15:48 BST May 5
• SUP 1: 115-13+ Low May 5
• SUP 2: 115-07+ 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114-10 Low May 1
• SUP 4: 113-30+ Low Apr 19 and key short-term support

Treasury futures broke lower Friday on the back of the better-than-expected payrolls release, however major support remains intact for now. This keeps the outlook bullish and attention is on key resistance at 117-01+, the Mar 24 high and bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would strengthen current trend conditions. Initial firm support is at 115-07+, the 20-day EMA. Key support is far-off at 113-30+, the Apr 19 low. Short-term pullbacks are considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Broader Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4324.00 @ 06:37 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 4224.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Friday and price has remained above support at 4224.30, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend remains intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Strong Bounce

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4163.25/4206.25 High May 5 / 1
• PRICE: 4146.75 @ 05:54 BST May 8
• SUP 1: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis reversed course Friday and prices have climbed back above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4099.70. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Key support has been defined at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 3: $80.18 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $78.76 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.36 - Low Apr 27 and a recent breakout level
• PRICE: $75.76 @ 07:01 BST May 8
• SUP 1: $71.28 - Low May 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Recent gains in Brent futures are considered corrective and this is allowing a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. The impulsive bearish wave that started Apr 12 signals scope for a test of key support at $70.10, the Mar 20 low. A break of this level would reinforce bearish conditions. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $77.36, the Apr 27 low ahead of $78.76, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Oversold Condition Unwinds

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $71.80 @ 07:13 BST May 8
• SUP 1: $68.48/63.64 - Low May 5 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures remain bearish despite the strong recovery from last Thursday’s intraday low of $63.64. The trend condition was oversold last week and the recovery is allowing this to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, last week’s print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Stays Intact

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2063.0 - High May 4
• PRICE: $2024.9 @ 06:08 BST May 8
• SUP 1: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• SUP 2: $1969.3/1964.2 - Low Apr 19 and key support / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Despite Friday’s move lower, Gold remains in an uptrend. The yellow metal has breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 high ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.135 - High MAy 5
• PRICE: $25.676 @ 08:10 BST May 8
• SUP 1: $24.492 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 2: $24.155 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.572 - Low Apr 3
• SUP 4: $22.828 - Low Mar 28

Silver remains in an uptrend and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The metal has traded above resistance at $26.088, the Apr 14 high. A continuation higher would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards $26.222, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key near-term support to watch is $24.492, the Apr 25 low. A clear breach would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.