MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Outlook for WTI Crude Improving

Price Signal Summary – Outlook for WTI Crude Improving

• S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and the contract is holding the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pullback is considered corrective. This week’s climb resulted in a break of the 3820.00 hurdle, Oct 5 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone following this week’s gains. A number of key resistance levels have recently been cleared. Price is through trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high and is trading above the 50-day EMA.
• EURUSD traded lower yesterday. The outlook remains bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The recent key technical development has been the breach of top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. EURGBP traded lower Thursday and a short-term bear threat remains present. The strong reversal from 0.9266, Sep 26 high, has resulted in the break of a number of key short-term support levels and this suggests scope for an extension lower near-term. AUDUSD is trading closer to this week’s highs. The outlook is bullish following the reversal from 0.6170, the Oct 13 low. The focus is on 6547, Oct 4 high and the 50-day EMA, a key short-term hurdle that intersects at 0.6550.
• Gold is unchanged. The yellow metal remains in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. This follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. The WTI futures outlook has improved for bulls following this week’s gains. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low. Note that resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high, has been breached.
• Bund futures traded higher again Thursday, extending the recovery from the Oct 21 low of 134.02. Short-term gains are considered corrective. However, the bullish cycle remains in play and the break of 138.52 signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Gilt futures traded higher once again Thursday and the current bull cycle remains intact. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher this week has resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0094 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 0.9983 @ 05:54 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 0.9923 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.9848 Former channel resistance-now-support
• SUP 3: 0.9807 Low Oct 24
• SUP 4: 0.9705 Low Oct 21

EURUSD traded lower yesterday. The outlook remains bullish and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The recent key technical development has been the breach of top of the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The confirmed channel breakout highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension higher. The focus is on 1.0198 next, the Sep 12 high. The support to watch is 0.9848, the former bear channel resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.1834 76.4% Fib retracement for the Aug - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 1.1799 0.7645 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1738 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1645/95 High Oct 27 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 1.1627 @ 15:59 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: 1.1435 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1234 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key support

GBPUSD short-term conditions remain bullish following this week’s break of key resistance at 1.1495. The move higher marks an extension of the reversal from 1.0350, Sep 26 low and this has confirmed a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The current cycle highlights scope for 1.1738, the Sep 13 high and the next key short-term resistance. Initial support is seen at 1.1435, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.9292 High Sep 11 2020
• RES 3: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 0.8781/8867 High Oct 21 / 12
• PRICE: 0.8630 @ 06:22 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 0.8609 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 0.8559 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP traded lower Thursday and a short-term bear threat remains present. The strong reversal from 0.9266, Sep 26 high, has resulted in the break of a number of key short-term support levels and this suggests scope for an extension lower near-term with sights on 0.8559 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.8867, the Oct 12 high, where a break would reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 148.41/149.71 High Oct 26 / 24
• PRICE: 146.36 @ 06:40 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 145.11 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 143.89 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

USDJPY maintains a weaker tone. This follows Thursday’s move lower that resulted in a print below 145.56, the Oct 24 low . The breach of this support signals scope for an extension lower and this means that the pair remains in a short-term bearish corrective cycle. Momentum studies are trending down as a recent overbought condition unwinds. The focus is on the 50-day EMA at 143.89 - a key support. Key resistance is at the trend high of 151.95 (Oct 21).

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 147.72 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 146.08 @ 06:50 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 144.87 / 143.80 20-day EMA / Low Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 142.72 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

EURJPY remains in an uptrend despite Thursday’s move lower - the pullback is considered corrective. A key short-term support has been defined at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, where a break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback. A continuation higher would open 148.40, the Oct 21 high. This is the bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop.

AUDUSD TECHS: Watching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6550 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6547 High Oct 4 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6449 @ 07:01 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 0.6401/6303 20-day EMA / Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD is trading closer to this week’s highs. The outlook is bullish following the reversal from 0.6170, the Oct 13 low. The focus is on 6547, Oct 4 high and the 50-day EMA, a key short-term hurdle that intersects at 0.6550. A break of this EMA would strengthen current bullish conditions. Note that gains are still considered corrective and the broader trend direction remains down. Initial support to watch lies at 0.6401, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Zone Holds - For Now

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3748 High Oct 25
• PRICE: 1.3591 @ 08:04 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 1.3496 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 1.3462 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3227 Low Sep 20

USDCAD remains below the 20-day EMA and maintains a bearish tone as the reversal from 1.3977, Oct 13 high, extends. Support at 1.3503, the Oct 4 high, has been pierced. Note that the 50-day EMA intersects at 1.3462. Clearance of these two chart points (a key support zone) would signal scope for a deeper pullback. The broader trend direction is up and the pullback is considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is 1.3855, Oct 21 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Arrives At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 143.26 High Sep 19
• RES 3: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 2: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 141.00 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 140.43 @ 05:25 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 137.57 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 136.46/134.02 Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing
• SUP 4: 132.89 Low Oct 28 2011

Bund futures traded higher again Thursday, extending the recovery from the Oct 21 low of 134.02. Short-term gains are considered corrective. However, the bullish cycle remains in play and the break of 138.52 signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. The focus is on the 50-day EMA, at 141.00 - a key resistance. A reversal lower and a break of 137.57, Thursday’s low, would instead signal the end of the corrective cycle.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Rally Extends

• RES 4: 123.160 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 121.950 High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 121.330 High Oct 5
• PRICE: 120.890 @ 05:32 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 119.0980 Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 118.430 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures maintain a short-term bullish tone and a corrective cycle remains in play. Yesterday’s gains reinforces this condition. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and key short-term resistance at 119.960, the Oct 14 high. Clearance of this latter level strengthens bullish conditions and opens 121.330, the Oct 5 high, ahead of 121.950, the Oct 4 high and a bull trigger. Initial support is seen at yesterday’s low of 119.090.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Bull Cycle

• RES 4: 108.010 High Sep 13
• RES 3: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 107.400 Intraday high
• PRICE: 107.340 @ 05:58 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 106.975/710 20-day EMA / Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 106.680/350 Low Oct 24 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The Schatz futures primary trend direction is down, however, the contract has entered a bullish corrective cycle and yesterday’s climb reinforces this theme. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and resistance at 107.180, the Oct 13 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the next key resistance, at 107.770, the Oct 4 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is yesterday’s low of 106.710.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 104.39 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 102.84 @ Close Oct 28
• SUP 1: 100.38 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 98.91/95.82 20-day EMA / Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14
• SUP 4: 90.99/90.38 Low Sep 28 / Low Oct 12 and the bear trigger

Gilt futures traded higher once again Thursday and the current bull cycle remains intact. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA and the continuation higher this week has resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. The breach strengthens bullish conditions and opens 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8
• RES 1: 117.93 High Oct 27
• PRICE: 117.12 @ Close Oct 27
• SUP 1: 112.62 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110.14 Low Oct 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures traded sharply higher yesterday as the recovery from 108.82, Oct 21 low, extends. The contract has cleared resistance at 112.25, the Oct 14 high and 116.71, the Oct 4 high. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term and attention is on resistance at 119.06, the Sep 8 high. On the downside, key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. Initial support lies at 112.62, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 3810.00 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 3692.00 High Aug 26
• RES 2: 3678.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3617.00 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 3578.00 @ 06:29 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 3488.50 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone following this week’s gains. A number of key resistance levels have recently been cleared. Price is through trendline resistance drawn from the Aug 17 high and is trading above the 50-day EMA. This signals scope for an extension higher near-term and sights are on 3678.00, the Sep 13 high and a key short-term resistance. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3488.50.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Short-Term Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 3: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 2: 3923.88 50.0% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 3874.50 High Oct 26
• PRICE: 37991.75 @ 06:57 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: 3758.61/3641.50 20-day EMA / Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and the contract is holding the bulk of its recent gains. The latest pullback is considered corrective. This week’s climb resulted in a break of the 3820.00 hurdle, Oct 5 high. Furthermore, price has traded above the 50-day EMA, at 3831.28. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 3923.88, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 3641.50.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: $107.41 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 6 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $104.62 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $101.39 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $98.75 - High Oct 10 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: $96.12 @ 06:58 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: $93.00/88.77 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $86.29 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $85.00/82.44 - Low Sep 30 / Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $81.97 - 1.618 proj of the Jul 29 - Aug 5 - 30 price swing

Brent futures traded higher Thursday reinforcing the current short-term bull theme. Key near-term support has been defined at $88.77, the Oct 18 low, where a break is required to cancel the positive outlook. The contract has breached resistance at $95.17, Oct 12 high and this signals potential for a climb towards $98.75, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. A break of $98.75 would further strengthen conditions for bulls.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Holding On To The Bulk Of This Week’s Gains

• RES 4: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 3: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $92.34 - High Oct 12 / 10 and key resistance
• RES 1: $89.79 - High Oct 27
• PRICE: $87.85 @ 07:12 BST Oct 27
• SUP 1: $85.62/81.30 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $79.63 - 76.4% retracement points of the Sep 26 - Oct 10 rally
• SUP 3: $78.36 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $75.70 - Low Sep 26 and the bear trigger

The WTI futures outlook has improved for bulls following this week’s gains. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low. Note that resistance at $88.66, the Oct 12 high, has been breached. The break of this hurdle signals scope for gains towards $92.34, the Oct 10 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a move through support at $81.30 is required to undermine the bull theme.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $1714.8 - High Oct 7
• RES 2: $1688.2 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1674.9 - High Oct 26
• PRICE: $1658.9 @ 07:17 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: $1638.4/1615.0 - Low Oct 25 / Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold is unchanged. The yellow metal remains in a downtrend and recent gains are considered corrective. This follows the reversal from $1729.5, Oct 4 high. The move lower signals the end of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 bull phase. A resumption of weakness would open on key support at $1615.0, Sep 28 low. On the upside, the next firm resistance is at $1688.2, the 50-day EMA. A break of the average would signal scope for a stronger correction.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Despite Recent Gains

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 2: $20.499 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• RES 1: $20.039 - 61.8% retracement of the Oct 4 - 14 downleg
• PRICE: $19.416 @ 08:07 BST Oct 28
• SUP 1: $18.791/17.967 - Low Oct 25 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish despite its latest gains. The recent move below the 50-day EMA reinforced bearish conditions. This signals scope for a continuation of the reversal that started Oct 4 and the focus is on the next firm support at $17.967, the Sep 28 low. Clearance of this level would open $17.562, the Sep 1 low and the bear trigger. Resistance is seen at $20.039, a Fibonacci retracement.