MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Potential Bull Flag in Stocks

Price Signal Summary – Potential Bull Flag in Stocks

• S&P E-Minis continues to trade inside its recent range and the current consolidation appears to be a bull flag. If correct, this reinforces short-term bullish conditions. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 4178.15 today. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a range however the outlook is bullish and the contract is trading closer to recent highs and above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high.
• EURUSD remains below recent highs. The focus is on key short-term resistance defined by the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Channel resistance intersects at 1.0760 today. A break would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. EURGBP reversed course Tuesday and is trading at this week’s lows. The pullback is, for now, considered corrective. The recovery from the May 17 low of 0.8393 highlights a bullish theme and attention is on 0.8619, May 12 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. USDCAD maintains a softer tone and the pair traded lower again yesterday. The move reinforces current bearish conditions. Price has cleared 1.2562, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 uptrend. This opens 1.2459 next, Apr 21 low and suggests scope for further weakness.
• Despite the latest pullback, the short-term outlook in Gold is bullish and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $1873.4. A break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term upleg. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to recent gains. The contract last week breached resistance at $116.43, Mar 7 high and a former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for an extension.
• Bund futures trend conditions are unchanged and the direction remains down. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low and a bear trigger. The contract has also breached the 150.00 handle. Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract delivered a fresh cycle low yesterday, before recovering. The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that began May 19.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Channel Top Still Intact

• RES 4: 1.0954 High Apr 11
• RES 3: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 1.0751/87 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High May 30
• PRICE: 1.0686 @ 06:12 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 1.0627/0533 Low Jun 1 / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461 Low May 18 and19
• SUP 3: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support

EURUSD remains below recent highs. The focus is on key short-term resistance defined by the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. Channel resistance intersects at 1.0760 today. A break would strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Note that the primary trend remains down. A reversal lower, with channel resistance intact, would reinforce a bearish theme and open 1.0533 initially, May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Finds Support At 1.2431

• RES 4: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 1.2686 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2667 High May 27 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2590 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 1.2566 @ 06:29 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 1.2431 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 1.2317 Low May 17
• SUP 3: 1.2277 76.4% retracement of the May 13 - 27 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2156 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD found support at 1.2431 Tuesday and this level marks a key short-term support. Attention is still on a key resistance at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2686. A clear break of this average is required to strengthen short-term bullish conditions. The primary trend direction is down though and the trigger for a resumption of this trend is 1.2156, May 13 low. A deeper pullback would initially expose 1.2317, the May 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8590 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 0.8503 @ 06:37 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 0.8462/8433 50-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP reversed course Tuesday and is trading at this week’s lows. The pullback is, for now, considered corrective. The recovery from the May 17 low of 0.8393 highlights a bullish theme and attention is on 0.8619, May 12 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Mar 7. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8393, May 17 low. A break would alter the picture.

USDJPY TECHS: Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 135.15 High Jan 31 2002 and a congestion area
• RES 3: 134.48 1.236 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 133.84 High Apr 1 2002 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 133.21 Intraday high
• PRICE: 133.15 @ 05:53 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 130.43/129.29 Low Jun 6 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 127.09/36 50-day EMA / Low May 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY continues to climb. The pair has this week resumed its primary uptrend, following the break of 131.35, May 9 high. The extension maintains the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and with moving average studies pointing north, indications are that the USD has further to go. The focus is on 134.48, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 129.29, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Still Appreciating

• RES 4: 144.58 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 3: 144.04 Low Jan 1 2015
• RES 2: 142.78 High Jan 6 2015
• RES 1: 142.38 Intraday high
• PRICE: 142.34 @ 06:55 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 140.00 High Apr 21 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 138.32/37.96 High May 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 136.33/133.93 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 4: 133.49 100-dma

EURJPY continues to appreciate and extend gains above the Y140.00 handle. The break of this level strengthened bullish conditions and confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. Moving average studies also point north, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The focus is on 142.78 next, the Jan 6 2015 high. The trend has entered overbought territory, any pullback though would be considered corrective. Initial support is seen at 140.00.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.7465 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7400 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7200 @ 07:00 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 0.7148/7036 20-day EMA / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.6950 Low May 18
• SUP 3: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020

AUDUSD continues to trade the 20-day EMA, at 0.7148 today. short-term conditions are bullish following recent gains and the break above the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.7343, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the current bull cycle is still considered corrective. A break of the 20-day EMA would threaten the recent recovery. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.2896 High May 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2686/2706 High Jun 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2541 @ 07:26 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 1.2524 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.2403/02 Low Apr 5 and key support / 2.0% 10-dma env
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10. 2021

USDCAD maintains a softer tone and the pair traded lower again yesterday. The move reinforces current bearish conditions. Price has cleared 1.2562, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 uptrend. This opens 1.2459 next, Apr 21 low and suggests scope for weakness towards 1.2403 further out, the Apr 5 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is seen at 1.2706, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Downtrend Intact

• RES 4: 158.87 High May 12
• RES 3: 155.27 High May 26
• RES 2: 152.41 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 150.97/152.34 Low May 9 / Low May 18
• PRICE: 149.41 @ 05:07 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 148.83 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 148.23 Low Jun 10, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 148.02 1.382 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 147.35 1.50 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures trend conditions are unchanged and the direction remains down. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low and a bear trigger. The contract has also breached the 150.00 handle. This highlights a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 148.23 next, the Jun 10 2015 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 152.41, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 3: 125.380 Low May 18
• RES 2: 125.366 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 124.490/990 High Jun 3 and Jun 2
• PRICE: 123.980 @ 05:17 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 123.740 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 123.570 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 123.10 Low Sep 18 2013
• SUP 4: 123.00 Round number support

Bobl futures remain soft with fresh low prints registered this week. Price last week traded through former support at 124.840, May 6 low. Fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 123.760 next, the Oct 16 2013 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 125.380, the May 18 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 110.070 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 109.850 High May 26
• RES 2: 109.460 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 109.180/445 High Jun 3 / Low May 18
• PRICE: 109.025 @ 05:10 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 108.950 Low Jun 8
• SUP 2: 108.912 1.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 108.839 1.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 108.747 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Schatz futures remain soft, and the contract has this week resumed its primary downtrend. Support at 109.330, the May 6 low, has recently been cleared and this signals potential for a continuation lower with the focus on the 108.912 next, a Fibonacci projection. The break lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 109.180, the Jun 3 high.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Southbound

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 118.51 High May 26
• RES 2: 117.49 High May 31
• RES 1: 116.20 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 115.14 @ Close Jun 7
• SUP 1: 114.37 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 114.08 2.236 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 113.79 2.382 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures remain bearish and the contract delivered a fresh cycle low yesterday, before recovering. The move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that began May 19. This also maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The contract has traded below the 115.00 handle and this opens 114.08, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 116.20, high Jun 1.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 129.00 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 2: 125.27 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 123.86/125.13 High Jun 2 / Low May 24
• PRICE: 121.56 @ Close Jun 6
• SUP 1: 121.27 Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 120.96 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 119.14 2.236 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is bearish and yesterday’s gains are considered corrective. Last week’s bear leg confirmed a break of 123.88, May 9 low and a bear trigger. This also confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 122.00 has been breached, the focus is on 120.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 123.86 Jun 2 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3857.00 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 3817.00 @ 06:03 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: 3743.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3628.00 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a range however the outlook is bullish and the contract is trading closer to recent highs and above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high. A break of the latter would strengthen current bullish conditions. Firm short-term support has been defined at 3576.00, May 19 low. A reversal lower would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bull Flag?

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4178.15/4202.25 50-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 4146.75 @ 06:52 BST June 8
• SUP 1: 3960.50/3807.50 Low May 26 / Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis continues to trade inside its recent range and the current consolidation appears to be a bull flag. If correct, this reinforces short-term bullish conditions. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 4178.15 today. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bullish outlook and open 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. Gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. First support to watch is 3960.50, May 26 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Bull Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $124.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $123.49 - 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $121.95 - High Jun 6
• PRICE: $121.07 @ 06:56 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: $113.96 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $112.45 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 3: $108.49 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures are unchanged and remain in an uptrend - price maintains a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the contract high of 124.42, Mar 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $113.96, is seen as initial support. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $123.35 - 1.236 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 2: $122.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $120.99 - High Jun 6
• PRICE: $120.15 @ 07:08 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: $112.45 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $96.93 - Low May 11

WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the contract is holding on to recent gains. The contract last week breached resistance at $116.43, Mar 7 high and a former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has paved the way for an extension. The contract has also traded above the psychological $120.00 handle. A clear break of this level would strengthen trend conditions. Firm support is seen at $112.45, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Watching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1874.1 - High May 24
• RES 1: $1873.4 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1850.0 @ 07:12 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: $1828.6 - Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Despite the latest pullback, the short-term outlook in Gold is bullish and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $1873.4. A break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term upleg. Note that recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the May 16, $1787.0 low. This is the bear trigger, a break would resume the downtrend that started Mar 8.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.785 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.483 - High Jun 3
• PRICE: $22.171 @ 07:59 BST Jun 8
• SUP 1: $21.435/20.464 - Low Jun 1 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver is unchanged. The metal last week briefly tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break above this level is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.785. For bears, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, the May 13 low. Initial support to watch is $21.435, the Jun 1 low.