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MNI China Press Digest Jan 13: Economy, SMEs, Local Debt

MNI picks keys stories from today's China press
Policy NewsCentral Bank NewsPBOCHomepageAPACEM Policy NewsChinaEM Central Bank NewsStoryRegion
MNI (BEIJING)
  • The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.8-5.2% y/y in Q4, rising from Q3’s 4.6% and achieving the annual growth target of around 5%, Yicai.com reported, citing analysts. Despite a higher comparison base, additional policies launched since September have driven a recovery in consumption, real estate and industrial production, while exporters rushed shipments ahead of anticipated new tariffs also supported growth, the newspaper said. Retail sales are likely to rise by 0.5 percentage points to 3.54%, while industrial output may decelerate slightly from the previous 5.4% to 5.35%, the newspaper noted, citing the median of economists surveyed.
  • China’s SME Development Index reached 89.0 in Q4 2024, up 0.1 points from Q3, with the macroeconomic perception sub-index turning from decline to flat, the China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises said. Ma Bin, executive vice president at the Association, noted SME confidence has gradually improved as the government released stock policies, but domestic demand remained insufficient. In the final quarter, construction, transportation, wholesale and retail industries turned from decline to flat versus Q3, with real estate, information and software, and accommodation and catering industry indexes continuing to decline, down 0.1, 0.1, and 0.2 points from the previous quarter.
  • Chinese provincial and city governments on Monday will issue local government bonds for the first time this year, Securities Daily reports. Local governments will sell more than CNY720 billion of special bonds during Q1, of which new special bonds exceeds CNY300 billion and refinancing special bonds of more than CNY410 billion. Authorities have begun debt issuance early this year given plans for a more proactive fiscal policy, said Bai Yanfeng, professor at the School of Finance and Taxation at the Central University of Finance and Economics. Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank expects the limit of special bonds in 2025 to reach CNY4.5 trillion.
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MNI (BEIJING)
  • The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.8-5.2% y/y in Q4, rising from Q3’s 4.6% and achieving the annual growth target of around 5%, Yicai.com reported, citing analysts. Despite a higher comparison base, additional policies launched since September have driven a recovery in consumption, real estate and industrial production, while exporters rushed shipments ahead of anticipated new tariffs also supported growth, the newspaper said. Retail sales are likely to rise by 0.5 percentage points to 3.54%, while industrial output may decelerate slightly from the previous 5.4% to 5.35%, the newspaper noted, citing the median of economists surveyed.
  • China’s SME Development Index reached 89.0 in Q4 2024, up 0.1 points from Q3, with the macroeconomic perception sub-index turning from decline to flat, the China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises said. Ma Bin, executive vice president at the Association, noted SME confidence has gradually improved as the government released stock policies, but domestic demand remained insufficient. In the final quarter, construction, transportation, wholesale and retail industries turned from decline to flat versus Q3, with real estate, information and software, and accommodation and catering industry indexes continuing to decline, down 0.1, 0.1, and 0.2 points from the previous quarter.
  • Chinese provincial and city governments on Monday will issue local government bonds for the first time this year, Securities Daily reports. Local governments will sell more than CNY720 billion of special bonds during Q1, of which new special bonds exceeds CNY300 billion and refinancing special bonds of more than CNY410 billion. Authorities have begun debt issuance early this year given plans for a more proactive fiscal policy, said Bai Yanfeng, professor at the School of Finance and Taxation at the Central University of Finance and Economics. Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank expects the limit of special bonds in 2025 to reach CNY4.5 trillion.