MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Range Breakout Confirms Bear Trend in AUD/USD

Price Signal Summary – Range Breakout Confirms Bear Trend in AUD/USD

• A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play. The contract traded lower yesterday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg and maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for weakness towards 4242.15, a Fibonacci retracement point. Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and the latest bounce has been corrective. The contract has traded below 4128.00, the Sep 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and signals scope for a move towards 4055.40.
• GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s fresh cycle low reinforces bearish conditions. The extension lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position. USDJPY trended higher into US hours, hitting a new cycle best at Y150.16 before a sharp reversal tipped prices lower, raising speculation of BoJ intervention as prices fell to 147.43. The recovery from the intraday low yesterday, however, is bullish and - for now - the uptrend remains intact. The AUDUSD remains bearish following this week’s breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low and bear trigger. This highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early February.
• Gold started this week’s session on a bearish note and the metal is trading just above this week’s low. The recent sell-off resulted in a break of support at $1901.1 and this was followed by a breach of $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. WTI futures started the week on a bearish note and a corrective cycle is in play. The contract has traded through support at $88.19, the Sep 26 low. The breach highlights a short-term top and signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA.
• Bund futures remain in a downtrend. The contract traded sharply lower last week and has traded to a fresh cycle low today. The recent breach of 129.72, Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger, reinforced a bearish theme. Gilt futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower once again reinforces this condition. Today’s gap lower also strengthens the case for bears. The contract has recently breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support.

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.0749 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.0737 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 1.0674 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 1.0630 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0468 @ 05:50 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 1.0448 Low Oct 03
• SUP 2: 1.0406 50.0% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0361 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.0291 Low Nov 30 2022

EURUSD remains in a clear downtrend and traded to a fresh trend low Tuesday, confirming a resumption of the trend. The move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position. The break lower signals scope for a move towards 1.0406 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0630, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal the start of a correction.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 1.2476 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2425 High Sep 19
• RES 2: 1.2304 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2272 High Sep 25
• PRICE: 1.2082 @ 06:07 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 1.2052 Low Oct 03
• SUP 2: 1.2028 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.2011 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1964 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing

GBPUSD bears remain in the driver’s seat and this week’s fresh cycle low reinforces bearish conditions. The extension lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, reflecting current market sentiment. The focus is on 1.2028, the Mar 16 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2304, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a possible short-term base.

EURGBP TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8736 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8706 High Sep 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8667 @ 06:45 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 0.8639 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8617/8569 50-day EMA / Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8558 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 0.8524 Low Sep 06

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.8639, remains intact. The cross is also trading closer to its recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 0.8611, the Aug 30 high. This was followed by a move above trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high - the trendline intersects at 0.8665. A clear break of the line would strengthen bullish conditions. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would highlight a top.

USDJPY TECHS: Volatile But Trend Direction Remains Up

• RES 4: 151.95 High Oct 21 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 151.09 2.764 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 2: 150.40 2.618 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 150.16 High Oct 3
• PRICE: 149.22 @ 06:52 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 147.43 Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: 146.25 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 4: 144.45 Low Sep 1

USDJPY trended higher into US hours, hitting a new cycle best at Y150.16 before a sharp reversal tipped prices lower, raising speculation of BoJ intervention as prices fell to 147.43. The recovery from the intraday low yesterday, however, is bullish and - for now - the uptrend remains intact. A clear break of the 150.00 handle would reinforce bullish conditions. Yesterday’s low of 147.43 represents a key short-term support.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Cracks on Whipsaw Price Action

• RES 4: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 3: 159.76 High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 158.65 High Sep 13
• RES 1: 157.16 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 156.13 @ 07:18 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 154.46 Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: 154.31 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 153.39 76.4% of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 bull run
• SUP 4: 151.42 Late July Low and Bear Trigger

EURJPY traded sharply lower Tuesday on suspected BoJ intervention. The cross has cleared support at the 50-day EMA and breached 156.59, the Sep 11 low. The break lower highlights a possible short-term reversal. Yesterday low of 1254.46 represents a key short-term support where a break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Initial resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA, at 157.16.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Price Action

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6410/6501 20-day EMA / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.6304 @ 07:28 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6170 Low Oct 13 2022 and a key support

The AUDUSD remains bearish following this week’s breach of support at 0.6331, the Sep 27 low and bear trigger. This highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started early February. The move lower signals scope for an extension towards 0.6215, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key trend resistance is at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6410, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Trades Above Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3862 High Mar 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 1.3736 High Oct 3
• PRICE: 1.3715 @ 07:55 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 1.3548 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3497 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3381 Low Sep 19 and a key support

USDCAD traded higher again Tuesday. The pair has this week breached key short-term resistance at 1.3695, the Sep 7 high. This highlights a bullish theme and reverses the recent bearish phase. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started mid-July. Trendline resistance - at 1.3701 and drawn from the Oct 13 ‘22 high - has also been pierced. A clear trendline break would be bullish. Support is at 1.3548, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bear Trend Extends

• RES 4: 130.19 High Sep 22 and key resistance
• RES 3: 129.29 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 128.79 High Sep 29
• RES 1: 127.95 High Oct 3
• PRICE: 126.90 @ 05:30 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 126.54 1.764 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.69 2.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 124.84 2.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend. The contract traded sharply lower last week and has traded to a fresh cycle low today. The recent breach of 129.72, Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger, reinforced a bearish theme and confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. Today’s extension maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 126.54 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is at 129.29, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 116.210 High Sep 18
• RES 3: 116.150 High Sep 22 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 115.916 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 115.790 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 115.170 @ 05:38 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 114.880 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 114.817 2.236 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.691 2.382 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.590 2.50 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. The recent break of 116.00, Aug 15 low and a key support, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and last week’s move lower strengthened the case for bears. The focus is on 114.817, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.150, the Sep 22 high. The bear trigger is 114.880, the Sep 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 105.170 High Sep 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.115 High Sep 15
• RES 2: 105.014 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.005 High Oct 3
• PRICE: 104.935 @ 05:52 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 104.830/765 Low Sep 29 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and recent short-term gains appear to be a correction. The recent break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 104.720, a Fibonacci projection. A key resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high. Initial firm resistance is at 105.014, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Approaching Key Support

• RES 4: 95.67 High Sep 26
• RES 3: 94.74 High Sep 28
• RES 2: 94.43 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 93.18 High Oct 3
• PRICE: 91.77 @ 08:12 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 91.47 Low Aug 17 and key support
• SUP 2: 91.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 90.06 1.00 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 17 - Sep 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 90.00 Psychological round number

Gilt futures remain bearish and yesterday’s move lower once again reinforces this condition. Today’s gap lower also strengthens the case for bears. The contract has recently breached 93.36, the Sep 6 low and a key support. Furthermore, 92.71, 76.4% of Aug 17 - Sep 20 bull run, has been breached. Sights are on 91.47, the Aug 17 low, and the next key support. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 94.43, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Trades Through A Key Support

• RES 4: 113.84 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 112.52 High Sep 20
• RES 2: 111.12 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 109.98 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 107.68 @ 07:53 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 107.71 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 107.08 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 106.40 2.382 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)
• SUP 4: 105.85 2.50 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 11 - 19 price swing (cont)

A sharp sell-off in BTP futures last Thursday reinforced bearish conditions. The contract has traded lower this week and today, breached support at 108.08, the Sep 28 low. This confirms a clear break of the Sep 28 ‘22 low of 108.13 - a major support. The move lower opens 107.08 next, a Fibonacci projection on the continuation chart. On the upside, resistance is at 109.98, the Sep 29 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Heading South

• RES 4: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 3: 4359.00 High Sep 15 and key resistance
• RES 2: 4283.20 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4226.20 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4106.00 @ 06:49 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 4095.00 Low Mar 28 (cont)
• SUP 2: 4055.40 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number

Eurostoxx 50 futures trend conditions remain bearish and the latest bounce has been corrective. The contract has traded below 4128.00, the Sep 27 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and signals scope for a move towards 4055.40, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 4226.20, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal a possible short-term base.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bears Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 4566.00 High Sep 15 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4514.50 High Sep 18
• RES 2: 4453.89 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4401.10 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 4236.25 @ 08:00 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: 4236.50 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4194.75 Low May 24
• SUP 3: 4166.25 1.50 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 4: 4134.00 Low May 4

A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play. The contract traded lower yesterday, confirming a resumption of the bear leg and maintaining the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This signals scope for weakness towards 4242.15, a Fibonacci retracement point. A break of this level would open 4194.75, the May 24 low. Pivot resistance is 4453.89, the 50-day EMA. Ahead of the 50-day average is resistance at 4401.10, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
• RES 3: $99.73 - 1.236 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 2: $96.22 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.35 - High Sep 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $90.75 @ 06:58 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: $87.64 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $81.33 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: $79.84 - 61.8% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 4: $77.54 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact, however, the contract has entered a corrective cycle. Price has this week traded through support at $90.41, the Sep 26 low. The break lower strengthens a short-term bearish theme and signals scope for a move towards support at the 50-day EMA - at $87.64. A clear breach of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at $95.35, the Sep 28 high.

WTI TECHS: (X3) Support Gives Way

• RES 4: $100.00 - Psychological barrier
• RES 3: $99.42 - 1.382 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: $95.03 - High Sep 28 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $89.04 @ 07:12 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: $87.76 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $84.56 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $73.40 - Low Jul 17

WTI futures started the week on a bearish note and a corrective cycle is in play. The contract has traded through support at $88.19, the Sep 26 low. The breach highlights a short-term top and signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $84.56 today. A clear break of this average would strengthen a bearish condition. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $95.08, the Sep 28 high.

GOLD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1912.0 - 50-day EMA
• RES 2: $1879.9/1890.9 - High Sep 29 / 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1849.0 - High Oct 2
• PRICE: $1823.6 @ 05:57 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: $1815.3 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $1804.9- Low Feb 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1786.1 - 61.8% of the Sep 28 ‘22 - May 4 bull leg
• SUP 4: $1774.0 - Low Dec 15 2022

Gold started this week’s session on a bearish note and the metal is trading just above this week’s low. The recent sell-off resulted in a break of support at $1901.1 and this was followed by a breach of $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early May. The focus is on $1804.9, the Feb 28 low and a key support. On the upside, firm resistance is at $1890.9, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $25.014 - High Aug 30
• RES 3: $24.298 - High Sep 4
• RES 2: $23.774 - High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $22.176/22.709 - High Oct 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.021 @ 07:59 BST Oct 4
• SUP 1: $20.689 - Low Oct 3
• SUP 2: $20.000 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: $19.585 - 76.4% retracement of the Sep ‘22 - May ‘23 upleg

Silver trend conditions are bearish and this week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. The metal has breached support at $22.111, the Jun 23 low and a bear trigger. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started early May. Sights are on the $20.00 handle next. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $23.774, the Sep 22 high. A break of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.