MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Risk-Off Pervades

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Pullback Likely A Correction

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis have started the week on a softer note and the contract is extending the pullback from 4384.50 Jul 14 high. Attention turns to the key near-term support at 4279.25, Jul 8 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are starting the week on a softer note as price edges lower. The contract last week failed to challenge initial resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high where a break would neutralise recent bearish price signals and highlight scope for a stronger recovery towards 4121.00 initially.
• In FX, the USD outlook remains largely bullish. The EURUSD needle still points south. Last week's move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and has exposed 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. GBPUSD remains vulnerable. MA studies are still in a bear mode highlighting a bearish condition. Recent weakness signals scope for a test of 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key S/T support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Last week's weakness suggests the recent 3-day recovery was a correction and that it is over. If correct, additional near-term weakness would expose 109.53, Jul 8 low and the short-term bear trigger. A break would open 109.19, Jun 7 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold has pulled back from last week's high. The yellow metal maintains a bullish tone though and the pullback is considered corrective. Price however needs to clear last week's high print to confirm a resumption of the recent upleg. Support to watch is at $1791.7, Jul 12 low. Brent futures remain above the Jul 8 low of $72.11. The pullback from last week's highs has exposed key near-term support at $72.11, Jul 8 low. A breach of this support would signal a short-term top. WTI (Q1) key support to watch is at 70.76, Jul 8 low.
• Within FI, Bund futures are recovering further off Wednesday's low. Conditions remain bullish with the bull trigger at the Mar 3 high (cont) giving way at 174.97. This opens gains toward 175.88, the 1.236 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing. Gilt futures are higher but remain below recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. MA studies support a bullish outlook and 129.92 is the bull trigger, Jul 8 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Directional Signals Still Point South

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1962/75 50-day EMA / High Jun 25
• RES 2: 1.1930 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.1881 High Jul 9
• PRICE: 1.1806 @ 06:12 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.1772 Low Jul 13 and 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD ended Friday unchanged. The outlook though remains bearish. The pair traded lower Jul 13 to resume its downtrend, breaching 1.1782, Jul 7 low. Last week's move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and has exposed 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1881, the July 9 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish And Approaching Support

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.4001 High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3868/3927 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3755 @ 06:18 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD traded lower Friday and has started the week on a softer note. The outlook remains bearish following the recent break of 1.3787, Jun 21 low that confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. Furthermore, MA studies are still in a bear mode highlighting a bearish condition. Recent weakness signals scope for a test of 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key S/T support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. Firm resistance is at 1.3927.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 2: 0.8618/29 High Jul 8 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• RES 1: 0.8589 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8583 @ 06:27 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Jul 14 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 0.8472/69 Low Apr 5 / 1% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP is trading higher today. The current recovery is likely a correction with S/T bearish conditions still dominating. This follows the recent break of support at 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and 0.8530, the Jun 23 low. The break signals potential for a move towards support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. The cross on Jul 8, probed resistance at 0.8616, Jul 1 high. A clear break of this hurdle is required to neutralise the current bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Still Exposed

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71 High Mar 24, 2020
• RES 2: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 110.70/82 High Jul 14/ High Jul 7
• PRICE: 109.93 @ 06:32 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 109.53 Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.19 Low Jun 7 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.34 Low May 7

USDJPY remains below last week's high of 110.70 and below resistance at 110.82, Jul 7 high. The reversal lower on Jul 14 suggests the recent 3-day recovery was a correction and that it is over. If correct, additional near-term weakness would expose 109.53, Jul 8 low and the short-term bear trigger. A break would open 109.19, Jun 7 low. Clearance of 110.70 and 110.82 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURJPY TECHS: Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 3: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 131.09/50 High Jul 13 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.43 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 129.79 @ 06:36 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 129.61 Low Jul 15
• SUP 2: 129.35 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2020 - May 2021 rally
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

EURJPY is trading near recent lows and the outlook remains bearish. The cross probed support last week at 129.63, Jul 8 low. A clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and confirm a resumption of the current downtrend that started Jun 1. This would open 129.35 next, a Fibonacci retracement. MA studies are in bear mode, reinforcing the bearish theme. On the upside, 131.09, Jul 13 high marks initial firm resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bear Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 0.7617 High Jun 25 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7534/99 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• RES 1: 0.7443/7503 High Jul 16 / High Jul 13
• PRICE: 0.7384 @ 06:43 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 0.7373 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7360 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 3: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.7304 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing

AUDUSD is trading lower. The pair traded lower Friday and breached support at 0.7410, the Jul 9 low to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The break lower maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and the pair is weaker within the bear channel drawn off the Feb 25 high. The channel base is at 0.7360. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7503, the Jul 13 high. Clearance of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

USDCAD TECHS: Firmer And Maintains A Bullish Posture

• RES 4: 1.2845 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 1.2745/49 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Feb 26
• RES 2: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 1: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2646 @ 06:49 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 1.2502/2428 Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057 Low Jun 7

USDCAD is firm. The pair last week breached resistance at 1.2590, Jul 8 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 1 and has cleared the way for a climb towards 1.2653 next, Apr 21 high and a key resistance. Moving average studies are in a bull mode reinforcing current trend conditions. Support has been defined at 1.2428, Jul 14 low. A break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Bull Channel Breakout

• RES 4: 176.38 1.382 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 176.30 76.4% retracement of the Dec '20 - May sell-off (cont)
• RES 2: 175.88 1.236 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 175.40 Intraday high
• PRICE: 175.25 @ 05:17 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 174.45 Low Jul 15
• SUP 2: 173.70 LowJul 13 and 14
• SUP 3: 173.16 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 172.82 Channel base from May 19 low

Bund futures are starting the week on a firm note with price firmly above the former resistance of 174.77, Jul 8 high. The clear break of this level strengthens a bullish case, confirms a resumption of the uptrend and highlights a bullish breakout of a rising channel drawn off the May 19 low. With 175.00 cleared, attention is on 175.88, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 174.45, the Jul 15 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Starts The Week On A Firmer Note

• RES 4: 134.934 Bull channel top drawn off the May 20 low
• RES 3: 134.912 1.618 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.835 1.50 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.820 Intraday high
• PRICE: 134.780 @ 05:32 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 134.570 Low Jul 15
• SUP 2: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: 134.318 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 134.134 Bull channel base drawn off the May 20 low

Bobl futures maintain a bullish theme and have started the week on a firm note. The contract on Jul 8 confirmed a clear break of a key short-term resistance at 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. The break confirmed a resumption of the recovery from May 20 and sets the scene for an extension higher. This opens 134.835, a Fibonacci projection and 134.934, a bull channel top. Key support lies at 134.410, Jul 13 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Needle Points North

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.250 High Mar 1 and 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.215 High Jul 8 and the intraday high
• PRICE: 112.205 @ 05:38 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 112.170/150 Low Jul 15 / Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6
• SUP 3: 112.120 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28

The Schatz futures outlook remains bullish and the contract is trading higher. Resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high was probed on Jul 8. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish case and open 112.250, the Mar 1 and 2 high (cont). A move higher would also establish a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. On the downside, clearance of 112.150, Jul 13 low is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support is at 112.170.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.30 2.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 129.99 High Feb 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 129.49/92 High Jul 15 / High Jul 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.12 @ Close Jul 16
• SUP 1: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 and key support

Gilt futures remain below recent highs. Despite the recent pullback, a bullish outlook appears intact. Gains earlier this month resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. The break highlights a resumption of the uptrend from May 13 and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies support a bullish outlook and 129.92 is the bull trigger, Jul 8 high. Firm support is at 128.54/39.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Uptrend Extends

• RES 4: 154.15 0.764 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 153.35 0.618 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 1: 153.24 High Jul 16
• PRICE: 153.17 @ Close Jul 16
• SUP 1: 152.50 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 151.93/54 Low Jul 8 / Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 151.19 High Jul 1
• SUP 4: 150.56 Low Jun 30

BTPs maintain a bullish tone following last week's resumption of the uptrend. Gains on Jul 6 and 7 resulted in a breach of key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 and paves the way for a stronger short-term recovery. Last week's extension reinforces the bullish theme. Attention is on 153.35, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at the Jul 13 low of 152.50.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Attention Is On The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4101.50 High Jul 1 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 3992.00 @ 06:01 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 3951.50 Low Jul 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 3871.00 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3830.00 Low May 13 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are starting the week on a softer note as price edges lower. The contract last week failed to challenge initial resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high where a break would neutralise recent bearish price signals and highlight scope for a stronger recovery towards 4121.00 initially. Attention is on support at 3951.50, Jul 8 low and the bear trigger. A break would set the scene for a deeper pullback towards 3914.00, May 20 low.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Approaching Key Near-Term Support

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4384.50 High Jul 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4303.25 @ 07:05 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: 4279.25 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 4235.33/4126.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

S&P E-minis have started the week on a softer note and the contract is extending the pullback from 4384.50 Jul 14 high. Attention turns to the key near-term support at 4279.25, Jul 8 low. A break would signal a top and suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback. This would open 4235.33, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, key resistance is at 4384.50. A break would instead confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Key Support Appears Exposed

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $74.59/76.72 - High Jul 15 / High Jul 14
• PRICE: $73.04 @ 07:04 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $72.11 - Low Jul 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $71.89 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $71.24 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: $69.42 - High May 18

Brent futures remain above the Jul 8 low of $72.11. The pullback from last week's highs has exposed key near-term support at $72.11, Jul 8 low. A breach of this support would signal a short-term top. Note that the 50-day EMA intersects at $71.89. A clear break of the EMA would also reinforce a bearish condition and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. On the upside, $76.72, Jul 14 high marks the first key resistance.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Probes Key Support

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $76.98 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $72.96/75.52 - High Jul 15 / High Jul 13
• PRICE: $71.18 @ 07:10 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $70.41 - Low Jul 16
• SUP 2: $69.93 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $69.54 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: $67.59 - Low Jun 2

WTI futures are trading closer to recent lows. The contract last week probed support at $70.76, Jul 8 low. A clear break of this support would highlight a stronger bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback, initially towards $69.93, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would strengthen a bearish case. Firm resistance is $75.52, Jul 13 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to expose the bull trigger at $76.98, Jul 6 high.

GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Key Near-Term Support

• RES 4: $1877.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1805.7 @ 07:28 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $1791.7 Low Jul 12 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold has pulled back from last week's high of $1834.1 on Jul 15. The yellow metal maintains a bullish tone though and the pullback is considered corrective. Price however needs to clear last week's high print to confirm a resumption of the recent upleg. Support to watch is at $1791.7, Jul 12 low. A break would be bearish and instead would signal scope for an extension lower towards the key support at $1750.8, Jun 29 low.

SILVER TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 / High Jun 17
• RES 1: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• PRICE: $25.388 @ 09:27 BST Jul 19
• SUP 1: $25.314 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver has started the week on a softer note trading lower and breaking support at $25.529, the Jun 29 low and bear trigger. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downleg that started May 18. This has exposed $24.955, a Fibonacci retracement and $24.686, Apr 13 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode and this reinforces the current bearish theme. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at $26.775, Jul 6 high.