MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Directional Triggers Defined

Tech Focus: Price Signal Summary - Directional Triggers Defined In S&P E-Minis

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis key directional triggers have been defined. Support lies at 4110.50, Apr 21 low and resistance is at 4183.50, Apr 16 high.
• In the FX world, a gravestone doji in EURUSD Tuesday warns of a possible top. Key short-term resistance is Tuesday's high of 1.2080. Key support to watch is 1.1943, Apr 19 low. Gains above 1.2080 would resume the uptrend. GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday but did find resistance at the former bear channel base drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. This week's high of 1.4009 marks a key short-term resistance. Support is at 1.3810, Apr 19 low. USDJPY has this week traded through 108.41, Mar 23 low and through the 50-day EMA. The next key support and pivot level is 107.77, a trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains a bullish tone. The focus is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. Brent (M1) remains below Tuesday's high of $68.08. Key support to watch is $63.31, the 50-day EMA. WTI (M1) found resistance this week at $64.38, Tuesday's high. The 50-day EMA at $59.99 is seen as a firm intraday support.
• In the FI space, Bunds (M1) have tested the 20-day EMA this week. A clear breach of this average would open 171.62, Apr 14 high. Support to watch in Gilts (M1) remains 127.81, Apr 14 low. The key resistance is at 129.27, Mar 2 high and the reversal trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Gravestone Doji Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2221 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2122 Bear channel top drawn off the Jan 6 high
• RES 2: 1.2116 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: 1.2080 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 1.2027 @ 05:52 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.1994/43 Low Apr 22 / Low Apr 19 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.1861 Low Apr 7 and 8
• SUP 3: 1.1795 Low Apr 6
• SUP 4: 1.1738 Low Apr 5

EURUSD stalled at Thursday's high and strong selling pressure reversed earlier gains. The pair remains below Tuesday's high of 1.2080. In pattern terms, Tuesday's candle is a gravestone doji and if correct, a bearish signal. A deeper sell-off would expose firm S/T support at 1.1943, Apr 19 low where a break would strengthen a bearish case. For bulls, a climb above 1.2080 negates the pattern, resumes recent gains and would open 1.2116-22.

GBPUSD TECHS: Extends This Week's Pullback

• RES 4: 1.4105 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4103 76.4% retracement of the Feb 24 - Apr 12 downleg
• RES 2: 1.4009/17 High Apr 20 / High Mar 4
• RES 1: 1.3950 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 1.3864 @ 06:03 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.3810 Low Apr 19 and key intraday support
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3670/69 Low Mar 25 / Low Apr 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD faced strong selling pressure Thursday extending this week's reversal from 1.4009, Apr 20 high. Gains earlier in the week stalled at the former bull channel base, at 1.4006 drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low. This suggests recent gains have been corrective in nature and Thursday's move lower signals scope for a deeper pullback. The focus is on 1.3810, Apr 19 low next. A break of 1.4009 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8840 High Feb 4
• RES 3: 0.8791/8837 High Feb 12 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8731 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 0.8702/19 High Apr 19 / High Apr 16 and key resistance
• PRICE: 0.8676 @ 06:13 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 0.8589 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8582 Low Apr 7
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8430/8397 Low Feb 27, 2020 / 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band

EURGBP remains below the Apr 16 high of 0.8719. This week's inability to hold above the 0.8700 handle is an early indication that the recent corrective bounce between Apr 5 - 16 is over. Attention is on 0.8582, Apr 7 low, a break would expose the Apr 5 low of 0.8472. Medium-term moving average signals are bearish, in line with the broader downtrend that has dominated since Sep 2020. A break of 0.8719 is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Attention Remains On Trendline Support

• RES 4: 110.97 High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 110.55 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 109.96 High Apr 9
• RES 1: 108.84 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 107.88 @ 06:20 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 107.77 Trendline drawn off Jan 6 low / 38.2% of Jan-Mar rally
• SUP 2: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 3: 106.78 50.0% retracement of the Jan - Mar rally
• SUP 4: 106.37 Low Mar 1

USDJPY maintains a bearish tone following this week's breach of support at 108.41, Mar 23 low. The break and subsequent follow through confirms an extension of the current bearish cycle and note, the 50-day EMA at 108.13 has been breached. Attention is on 107.77, the trendline support drawn off the Jan 6 low and a next key hurdle for bears. A break would reinforce bearish conditions. Initial resistance is at 108.93, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.58 High Oct 4, 2018
• RES 2: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 1: 130.97 High Apr 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.75 @ 06:25 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 129.57 Low Apr 8
• SUP 2: 129.37/24 Trendline drawn off Oct 30 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY remains below this week's high of 130.97 on Apr 20. In pattern terms, Tuesday is a shooting star candle and a potential reversal signal. Initial support is at 129.57, Apr 8 low. A clear break lower would expose the 50-day EMA at 129.24 and a trendline support at 129.37, drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. Clearance of this zone would signal a reversal and scope for a deeper pullback. The bull trigger is unchanged at 130.97.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Near-Term Resistance Is 0.7816

• RES 4: 0.8007 High Feb 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7895 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 sell-off
• RES 2: 0.7849 High Mar 18 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.7765/7816 High Apr 22 / High Apr 20
• PRICE: 0.7730 @ 06:33 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 0.7691 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 0.7635 Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: 0.7586 Low Apr 13
• SUP 4: 0.7532/17 Low Apr 1 and the bear trigger / Low Dec 22

AUDUSD traded lower Thursday. Recent gains resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high and note, price is back above the neckline of a recent head and shoulders reversal pattern. A deeper pullback though would expose support at 0.7635, Apr 14 low where a break would reverse the recent bullish cycle. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 0.7816, Apr 20 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Directional Triggers Intact

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2547 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2480 @ 06:37 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 1.2460 Low Apr 21
• SUP 2: 1.2409 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2251 Low Jan 31 2018

USDCAD traded in a volatile manner Wednesday, briefly probing the recent short-term bull trigger of 1.2647, Mar 30 high before reversing sharply. Directional triggers have been defined at 1.2653 and 1.2460, Wednesday's high / low prints. A break of support would signal scope for a deeper pullback and expose the key bear trigger at 1.2365, Mar 18 low. For bulls, clearance of 1.2653 would instead signal a stronger bullish reversal.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 172.12 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 171.62 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 171.22/27 20-day EMA / High APr 22
• PRICE: 170.93 @ 05:08 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 170.05 76.4% retracement of the Feb 25 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 2: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support
• SUP 4: 168.96 0.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 25 - Mar 25 price swing

Bund futures are trading closer to recent highs following this week's recovery from Tuesday's low. The contract has tested its 20-day EMA at 171.22. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 171.62, Apr 14 high. The recent focus has been on the potential for a move lower. Price needs to trade through the 171.05 Fibonacci retracement to resume bearish pressure.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Tests Its 20-day EMA

• RES 4: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 135.350 High Apr 8 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.180 High Apr 14
• RES 1: 135.037/050 20-day EMA / High APr 22
• PRICE: 134.930 @ 05:16 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 134.800 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 134.660 Low Apr 20 and intraday bear trigger
• SUP 3: 134.446 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 134.140 Low Feb 26 and key support

Bobl futures remain above the lows from earlier this week. The contract has tested its 20-day EMA at 135.037. Clearance of this average would strengthen a short-term bullish theme and pave the way for strength towards 135.180, Apr 14 high. A key short-term support has been defined at 134.660, Apr 20 low. A break is required to reinstate the recent bearish focus and the current downward cycle that started Mar 25.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Trading Closer To Recent Highs

• RES 4: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 112.150 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 112.120 High Apr 22
• PRICE: 112.100 @ 05:28 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: 112.060 Low Mar 10 and Apr 20
• SUP 2: 112.053 50.0% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 3: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally
• SUP 4: 111.993 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures recovered this week from Tuesday's low. The 20-day EMA has been probed and a clear break would strengthen a short-term bullish theme signalling scope for gains towards 112.150, Apr 8 high. Support has been defined at 112.060, Mar 10 and Apr 20 low. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish focus. This would open 112.053, a Fibonacci retracement.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Eyeing The Key Resistance Zone

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17 and 18
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 129.09 Intraday high
• PRICE: 128.80 @ Close Apr 22
• SUP 1: 127.81 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 127.32 Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures are trading closer to recent highs. The downtrend remains intact and S/T gains are still considered corrective. However, the contract is trading close to a host of key resistance levels defined by 128.93, Mar 25 high and 129.27, Mar 2 high. The former level has this been tested but a clear breach of this zone is required to signal a base and a reversal. Support and the near-term bear trigger is at 127.81, Apr 14 low.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 150.39 High Mar 11 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 149.88 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 149.47 High Apr 8
• RES 1: 148.65 20-day EMA and Apr 22 high
• PRICE: 148.35 @ Close Apr 22
• SUP 1: 147.54 Low Apr 20
• SUP 2: 146.84 Low Feb 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.16 Low Sep 21, 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 145.56 Low Sep 15, 2020 (cont)

BTP futures maintain a bearish tone despite recent gains. The break on Mar 13 of support at 148.36, Mar 18 low reinforces a bearish theme paving the way for weakness towards 147.56, Mar 5 low. This level was probed Tuesday and a clear break would expose the key support and bear trigger at 146.84, Feb 26 low. MA studies are in a bear mode reinforcing a bearish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 148.65, the 20-day EMA ahead of 149.47, Apr 8 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Remains Below Tuesday's High

• RES 4: 4150.66 High Jan 17, 2008
• RES 3: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 2: 4047.72 2.236 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 4040.88 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 4014.80 @ Close Apr 22
• SUP 1: 3935.83 Low Apr 22
• SUP 2: 3910.90 Low Mar 31
• SUP 3: 3841.46 Low Mar 26
• SUP 4: 3843.78 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 gains stalled earlier this week and a sharp sell-off dominated Tuesday's session. The trend condition is overbought and a short-term corrective pullback would allow the overbought reading to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been tested. A clear break would signal scope for a deeper sell-off and expose the 50-day EMA at 3836.79. On the upside, key resistance is at 4040.88, Apr 19 high. A break resumes the uptrend.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M1) Tests The 20-day EMA

• RES 4: $71.75 - High Jan 8 2020
• RES 3: $70.67 - High Mar 8 and the key bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.50 - High Mar 15
• RES 1: $66.52/68.08 - High Apr 21 / High Apr 20
• PRICE: $65.75 @ 06:35 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: $64.58/63.31 - Low Apr 22 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $62.41 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 3: $61.25 - Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: $60.33 - Low Mar 23 and a key support

Brent crude futures have this week found resistance at $68.08, Apr 20 high. A recent bullish focus is on hold following the pullback from this high. Price yesterday probed the 20-day EMA, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at $63.31. For bulls, clearance of $68.08 would reinstate a bullish focus and instead signal scope for a climb towards $69.50, Mar 15 high.

WTI TECHS: (M1) Trading Closer To Recent Lows

• RES 4: $67.29 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.15 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $65.26 - Former trendline support drawn off Nov 2, 2020 low
• RES 1: $62.56/64.68 - High Apr 21 / High Mar 18
• PRICE: $61.90 @ 06:41 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: $60.43 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: $59.99 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $58.77 - Low Apr 12
• SUP 4: $57.68 - Low Apr 5

WTI futures have this week found resistance at $64.38, Apr 20 high. A recent bullish focus is on hold following the move lower. Price probed the 20-day EMA yesterday. A clear break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback towards the 50-day EMA at $59.99. For bulls, clearance of the Apr 20 high would reinstate a bullish focus and instead signal scope for a climb towards $66.15, Mar 15 high.

GOLD TECHS: Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $1818.1 - 50.0% retracement of the Jan 6 - Mar 8 sell-off
• RES 3: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 2: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 1: $1797.9 - High Apr 22
• PRICE: $1786.0 @ 07:04 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: $1761.5 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1721.4 - Low Apr 5 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $1705.9 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger

The Gold outlook remains bullish and is trading closer to recent highs. The yellow metal recently cleared resistance at $1758.8, Apr 8 high and remains above the 50-day EMA. Furthermore, the recent break higher confirmed a double bottom reversal that had formed since the Mar 8 low. Attention is on $1805.7, Feb 25 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $1721.4, Apr 5 low. Initial support is at $1760.6.

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $28.328 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $27.686 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 2: $26.941 - 50.0% retracement of the Feb 1 - Mar 31 sell-off
• RES 1: $26.645 - High Apr 21
• PRICE: $26.135 @ 07:11 BST Apr 22
• SUP 1: $25.636 - Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.686 - Low Apr 13 and a key support handle
• SUP 4: $23.781 - Low Mar 31

Silver short-term bullish conditions remain intact following recent gains. The break higher Wednesday resulted in a probe of resistance at $26.636, Mar 18 high and a key near-term hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish case and open $26.941, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at $24.686, Apr 13 low. Initial support is at $25.636.