​MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Sights Set On 4400.00

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Sights Set On 4400.00

• In the equity space, bullish conditions continue to dominate in the S&P E-minis and price continues to climb resulting in fresh all-time highs once again. With the bullish cycle still dominating, attention is on 4400.00 next. EUROSTOXX 50 futures strengthened Monday extending the bounce from last week's low of 3951.50. The contract is approaching initial resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high where a break would neutralise recent bearish price signals and signal scope for a stronger recovery.
• In FX, the USD outlook remains bullish. EURUSD has resumed its downtrend, breaching the recent low of 1.1782, Jul 7 low. The outlook remains bearish and the focus is on 1.1704, Mar 31 low. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish despite this morning's gains. The focus is on the support and bear trigger at 1.3733, Jul 2 low. Resistance is at 1.3941, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY traded lower last week but found support at 109.53, Jul 8 low. The recent bear leg is considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. Initial resistance to watch is 110.82, Jul 7 high, a break would be bullish.
• On the commodity front, Gold continues to test the 50-day EMA, today at $1813.4. A clear break of the EMA is required to confirm the next leg higher and open $1833.7, 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline. Brent (U1) futures have recovered from last week's lows. Key resistance is defined at $77.84, Jul 6 high with key support initially at $72.11, Jul 8 low. WTI (Q1) key resistance is at $76.98, Jul 6 high and the bull trigger. Initial firm support lies at 70.76, Jul 8 low.
• Within FI, Bund futures are lower and remain below last week's highs. Price has recently cleared key resistance at 173.16, Jun 11 high and this highlights a bullish theme. The focus is on 174.97, Mar 3 high (cont). Support is at 173.16, Jun 11 high and a recent breakout level. Gilt futures are weaker this morning and are extending the pullback from last week's high of 129.92 on Jul 8. Broader conditions are bullish and the pullback is considered corrective. Next support is at 128.39, Jun 11 high and a recent breakout level.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1980 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.1930/1975 High Jun 29 / High Jun 25
• RES 1: 1.1881 High Jul 9
• PRICE: 1.1782 @ 05:56 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.1772 Low Jul 13 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD traded lower yesterday and has resumed its downtrend, breaching the recent low of 1.1782, Jul 7 low. The outlook remains bearish. Yesterday's move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This has exposed key support at 1.1704, Mar 31 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.1975, Jun 25 high. Initial firm resistance is at 1.1881, the July 9 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: S/T Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4074 Low Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.4001 High Jun 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3941 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3823 @ 06:05 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.3733 Low Jul 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3717 Low Apr 16
• SUP 3: 1.3669 Low Apr 12 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Apr 2

GBPUSD traded lower yesterday. The outlook remains bearish. Cable recently breached 1.3787, Jun 21 low and this confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear mode reinforcing current trend conditions. The move lower signals scope for a test of 1.3717, Apr 16 low. Attention is also on the key short-term support and bear trigger at 1.3669, Apr 12 low. First resistance is at 1.3941.

EURGBP TECHS: Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8646/72 High Jun 1 / High May 25
• RES 2: 0.8618/29 High Jul 8 and key resistance / High Jun 15
• RES 1: 0.8570 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8514 @ 09:23 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 0.8479 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 0.8472 Low Apr 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP is trading lower and the cross has breached support at; 0.8531, 76.4% of the Apr 5 - 26 rally and the Jun 23 low of 0.8530. Directional signals still point south and the break lower strengthens a bearish case with the focus on key support at 0.8472, Apr 5 low. The cross last week probed resistance at 0.8616, the Jul 1 high. A clear break is required to neutralise the current bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Above Last Week's Lows

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 111.71/111.78 High Mar 24, 2020 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 111.66 High Jul 2
• RES 1: 110.82 High Jul 7
• PRICE: 110.50 @ 06:23 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 109.53 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 109.19 Low Jun 7 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.34 Low May 7

USDJPY traded lower last week but did find support at 109.53, Jul 8 low. The recent bear leg is considered corrective. A bullish theme remains intact following the recent breach of 111.12, Jun 24 high and a previous bull trigger. This reinforces the bull trend and the broader positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Stronger short-term gains would refocus attention on 111.66, high Jul 2. A deeper sell-off would expose 109.19.

EURJPY TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 132.88 High Jun 17
• RES 3: 132.70 High Jun 23
• RES 2: 132.43 High Jul 1 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 131.09/70 High Jul 13 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.25 @ 06:30 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 129.63 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 129.35 38.2% retracement of the Oct 2020 - May 2021 rally
• SUP 3: 128.83 Low Mar 29
• SUP 4: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support

The EURJPY outlook remains bearish following last week's move lower and break of support at 130.04, Jun 21 low. This reinforces the bearish importance of the Jun 17 breach of a bull channel base drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. Attention is on 129.35 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are beginning to highlight a bearish condition, reinforcing current directional conditions. 131.70 marks resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Focus Is On The Bear Channel Base

• RES 4: 0.7716 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 0.7645 High Jun 17
• RES 2: 0.7610/17 50-day EMA / High Jun 25 and key S/T resistance
• RES 1: 0.7534/99 High Jul 7 / High Jul 6
• PRICE: 0.7461 @ 06:44 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 0.7410 Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: 0.7367 Bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high
• SUP 3: 0.7339 Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.7304 1.236 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing

AUDUSD is consolidating and attention remains on a key near-term support. Price recently found resistance at 0.7599, Jul 6 high. The outlook is bearish and sights are on 0.7367, the bear channel base drawn off the Feb 25 high. The recent move lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies remain in bear mode. Initial resistance is at 0.7534.

USDCAD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.2737 High Mar 5
• RES 3: 1.2688 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2653 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2590 High Jul 8
• PRICE: 1.2505 @ 06:48 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 1.2423 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 1.2303/2253 Low Jul 6 / Low Jun 23 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2157 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 1.2057 Low Jun 7

The USDCAD outlook remains bullish. Gains last week resulted in a break of resistance at 1.2487, the Jun 21 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jun 1 and also establishes a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode condition too. The focus is on 1.2653, Apr 21 high and an important resistance. Firm trend support lies at 1.2253, Jun 23 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 175.26 High Feb 18 (cont)
• RES 3: 175.08 1.00 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 2: 174.77/97 High Jul 8 / High Mar 3 (cont)
• RES 1: 174.32 High Jul 9 and 12
• PRICE: 173.90 @ 05:17 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 173.16 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 172.61/49 50-day EMA / Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 171.67 Low Jun 22 and the near-term bear trigger
• SUP 4: 171.37 Low Jun 3

Bund futures remain below recent lows. The near-term outlook remains bullish. The contract traded higher last week, extending the rally from Jun 22. Price has recently cleared key 173.16, Jun 11 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 9 and established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 174.97 next, Mar 3 high (cont) and 175.08, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at 173.16.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 134.912 1.618 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 134.835 1.50 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 134.758 1.382 proj of the May 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 134.710 High Jul 8 and
• PRICE: 134.490 @ 05:21 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 134.340 Low Jul 7
• SUP 2: 134.070 Low Jul 6
• SUP 3: 133.860 Low May 28, 31, Jun 22 and key S/T support
• SUP 4: 133.530 Low May 21

Bobl futures maintain a bullish theme with the recent pullback considered corrective. Futures last week confirmed a clear break of key short term resistance at 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection. The break confirms a resumption of the recovery that started May 20 and sets the scene for an extension higher. This opens 134.758, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support lies at 134.340, Jul 7 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Holding Above Support

• RES 4: 112.290 High Feb 11 (cont)
• RES 3: 112.280 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 112.250 High Mar 1 and 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 112.185/215 High Jul 12 / High Jul 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 112.165 @ 05:16 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 112.150 Low Jul 13
• SUP 2: 112.140 Low Jul 5 and 6
• SUP 3: 112.120 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 112.110 Congestion lows Apr 20, Jun 22, 23, 25 and 28

The Schatz futures outback is considered corrective. The contract traded higher last week extending the climb from the 112.110 congestion lows in June. Resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high was probed last week, a clear break would strengthen a bullish case. On the downside, clearance of 112.110 is required to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support is at 112.140, Jul 5 and 6 lows.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 3: 130.30 2.00 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 129.99 High Feb 24 (cont)
• RES 1: 129.92 High Jul 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.17 @ Close Jul 13
• SUP 1: 128.39 High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 3: 127.25 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 126.91 Low Jun 17 and key support

Gilt futures remain below recent highs but maintain a bullish tone. Recent gains have resulted in a clear breach of a key S/T resistance at 128.39, Jun 11 high. The break represents an important bullish development and signals a resumption of the uptrend that started May 13. Furthermore, the move higher maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 129.99, Feb 24 high (cont). Initial firm support is at 128.39.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 154.15 0.764 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 153.82 High Feb 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 153.35 0.618 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 1: 153.03 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 152.90 @ Close Jul 13
• SUP 1: 151.93/54 Low Jul 8 / Low Jul 6
• SUP 2: 151.19 High Jul 1
• SUP 3: 150.56 Low Jun 30
• SUP 4: 149.97 Low Jun 25 and key short-term support

BTPs traded higher yesterday and have resumed their uptrend. Last week's gains resulted in breach of key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19 and paves the way for a stronger short-term recovery. Yesterday's fresh high print reinforces the bullish theme. Attention is on 153.35, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is at the Jul 8 low of 151.93.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Focus Is On Resistance

• RES 4: 4175.00 Nov 26, 2008 low (cont)
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4101.50 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 4075.50 @ 05:45 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 3951.50 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 3976.00 Low May 21
• SUP 3: 3914.00 Low May 20
• SUP 4: 3871.00 Low May 19

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above recent lows following the bounce from last week's low of 3951.50. The contract is approaching initial resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high where a break would neutralise recent bearish price signals and signal scope for a stronger recovery towards 4121.00 initially. On the downside, a failure ahead of 4101.50 would expose 3951.50, Jul 8 low and the bear trigger.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Fresh All-Time High

• RES 4: 4508.82 1.236 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 4415.48 1.00 proj of Mar 25 - May 10 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4383.75 High Jul 12
• PRICE: 4354.25 @ 06:55 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: 4279.25 Low Jul 8
• SUP 2: 4221.28/4126.75 50-day EMA / Low Jun 21 and key support
• SUP 3: 4100.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4020.20 Low May 13 and key short-term support

The S&P E-minis trend condition remains in bull-mode and price confirmed a fresh all-time high once again yesterday. Moving average studies are bullish too, reinforcing current conditions. With the bullish cycle dominating, attention is on 4400.00 next. On the downside, the contract needs to trade below 4279.25, Jul 8 low to signal a potential near-term top. This would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Attention Is On Key Resistance

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.86 - 1.382 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $76.60 - High Jul 13
• PRICE: $76.40 @ 06:54 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $73.80 - Low Jul 9
• SUP 2: $72.11 - Low Jul 8 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: $71.24 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: $69.42 - High May 18 and the recent break out level

Brent futures have recovered from last week's lows and have re-established a bullish tone. The continued move higher refocuses attention on the key resistance at $77.84, Jul 6 high where a break would negate recent bearish concerns and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at $72.11, Jul 8 low where a break is required to signal a short-term top.

WTI TECHS: (Q1) Recovery Extends

• RES 4: $78.79 - 1.764 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 3: $77.35 - 1.618 proj of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing
• RES 2: $76.98 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $75.52 - High Jul 13
• PRICE: $75.09 @ 07:03 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $72.87/ 70.76 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 8 and key support
• SUP 2: $69.64 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $69.54 - Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: $67.59 - Low Jun 2

Brent futures continue to climb and extend the bounce from $70.76, Jul 8 low. Attention turns to the recent high of $76.98 on Jul 6 that also marks the bull trigger. A break of this level would negate recent bearish concerns and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $70.76, Jul 8 low where a break is required to signal a top.

GOLD TECHS: Challenging The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1833.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 2: $1825.4 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $1813.4/18.5 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 8
• PRICE: $1813.5 @ 07:21 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $1791.7 Low Jul 12
• SUP 2: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold continues to consolidate. The yellow metal maintains a firmer short-term tone though following the recent recovery from $1750.8, Jun 29 low. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $1813.4 today. The EMA represents a key resistance area and a clear break would suggest scope for stronger gains. This would open $1833.7, a Fibonacci retracement. A failure at the 50-day EMA would be bearish and signal scope for a return to $1750.8.

SILVER TECHS: Attention Is On Support

• RES 4: $28.556 - High Jun 1
• RES 3: $28.285 - High Jun 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 1: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 / High Jun 17
• PRICE: $26.085 @ 07:22 BST Jul 14
• SUP 1: $25.529 - Low Jun 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $25.199 - Low Apr 14
• SUP 3: $24.955 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 31 - May 18 rally
• SUP 4: $24.686 - Low Apr 13

Silver remains in a range. The metal recently breached resistance at $26.495, Jun 18 high. The break neutralises a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery. If the metal is able to resume its climb, this would open $27.245, Jun 17 high. Thus far, price has failed to hold onto recent gains and attention is on the key support and bear trigger at $25.529, Jun 29 low. Clearance of this level resumes a downtrend.