MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Back Below The 50-Day EMA

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Back Below The 50-Day EMA

• In the equity space, the short-term trend condition in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish. Price has cleared the 50-day EMA, at 4088.49. The breach of this pivot support strengthens the case for bears and signals scope for weakness towards 3983.25 next, 50% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg. EUROSTOXX 50 sold off sharply Friday, resuming the current bearish cycle. The break opens 3526.00, 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally.
• In FX, EURUSD remains bearish following the recent breach of key support at 0.9952, Jul 14 low. This confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing. The pullback from Friday’s high of 1.0090 reinforces the bearish theme. The GBPUSD trend needle still points south and today’s move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on the 1.1600 handle. USDJPY short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair has started the week on a firm note, clearing recent resistance at 137.71, Aug 22 high. The break opens 139.39, the Jul 14 high. A breach of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and today’s move lower has reinforced a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This opens $1711.0, 76.4% retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 10 upleg. In the Oil space, the WTI futures short-term outlook remains bullish. Futures have recently traded above the 50-day EMA and the break signals scope for a climb towards $99.75, the Jul 29 high. A break below $90.42, Aug 23 low is required to signal a top.
• In the FI space, Bund futures have started the week on a softer note, gapping lower this morning. This reinforces current bearish conditions and attention turns to 146.50, the Jun 30 low. Treasuries are softer too and have confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started early August. Scope is seen for a move towards 116-02+, 76.4% of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 upleg.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0237 Channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0193 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.9915 @ 06:04 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9708 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD stalled at Friday’s high of 1.0090, resulting in a sharp reversal lower. This reinforces current bearish conditions. Recent weakness resulted in breach of former key support at 0.9952, the Jul 14 low. The break confirmed an extension lower inside the bear channel (drawn from the Feb 10 high) and a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firmer short-term resistance is seen at 1.0090.

GBPUSD TECHS: Resumes Its Primary Downtrend

• RES 4: 1.2088 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• RES 2: 1.1901 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 1.1783 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.1651 @ 06:13 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.1600 Round number support
• SUP 2: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1447 Low Mar 23 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1412 Low Mar 20 2020 and a major support

GBPUSD has reversed sharply lower from Friday’s high of 1.1901 and is trading lower today. The sell-off has resulted in a break of 1.1718, Aug 23 low, to confirm a resumption of primary downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a clear bear mode position, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.1600 next. On the upside Friday’s 1.1901 high marks the first key short-term resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Breaches Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8603 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.8631 76.4% retracement of the Jun 15 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8570 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 0.8526 @ 10:07 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.8448/8408 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 0.8388/40 Low Aug 17 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 0.8277 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14

EURGBP has started the week on a firmer note and is again above the 50-day EMA. The recent high print of 0.8512 (Aug 19), was seen as a bullish development and attention is on this resistance. It has been pierced and a clear break would strengthen bullish conditions and resume the uptrend that started early August. This would open 0.8585, the Jul 21 high. Initial key support to watch is at 0.8408, the Aug 24 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 140.86 1.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 140.11 1.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 139.39 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 138.82 @ 06:28 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 137.37 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 135.82 Low Aug 23 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 134.75 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 133.91 Low Aug 17

USDJPY short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair has started the week on a firm note, clearing recent resistance at 137.71, the Aug 22 high. The break higher confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and attention is on the next key resistance at 139.39, the Jul 14 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 135.82, the Aug 23 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Remains Below Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 140.07 High Jul 25
• RES 3: 139.21 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jun 28 high
• RES 2: 138.40 High Aug 10 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 138.14 Intraday high
• PRICE: 137.87 @ 10:08 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 137.03 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 135.52/34.95 Low Aug 24 / 16
• SUP 3: 133.40 Low Aug 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support

The short-term outlook in EURJPY improved Friday, with prices piercing the 50-day EMA at 137.81. For now though, the cross remains below key short-term resistance at 138.40, the Aug 10 high. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition highlighting a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open initial key support at 135.52, Aug 24 low. On the upside, clearance of 138.40 would open the 139.21 trendline resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: 0.7040 High Aug 16
• RES 3: 0.7009 High Aug 26
• RES 2: 0.6949 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6908 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6858 @ 06:59 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 0.6841 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6789 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6719 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger

A bearish threat in AUDUSD firmed Friday following a sharp reversal from the intraday high of 0.7009. Today's move lower marks a bearish start to the week and this has resulted in a break of support at 0.6856, the Aug 23 low. The move lower has confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle that started Aug 11. Attention is on 0.6789, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7009.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 1: 1.3107 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 downleg
• PRICE: 1.3072 @ 08:21 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 1.1.2924 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

USDCAD is climbing once again, extending Friday’s gains and the bounce from 1.2895, the Aug 25 low. Today’s move higher resulted in a print above resistance at 1.3063, Aug 23 high. A clear break of this level would open 1.3107 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895. A break would alter the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Southbound

• RES 4: 154.47 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 153.66 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 153.04 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1151.42 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 148.38 @ 09:58 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 147.94/92 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg / Intraday low
• SUP 2: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 143.05 Low Jun 121

Bund futures have started the week on a softer note, gapping lower this morning. This reinforces current bearish conditions as price moves further away from the 50-day EMA. The average marked a key support area and the recent breach strengthened bearish conditions. The focus is on the 147.94 next, a Fibonacci retracement that has been tested this morning. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 151.42, Aug 25 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bearish Start Tp The Week

• RES 4: 126.930 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.070 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 125.784 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 124.930 High AUg 25
• PRICE: 124.760 @ 05:18 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 122.022 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally
• SUP 3: 120.990 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 119.940 Low Jun 16

Bobl futures remain bearish and the contract has gapped lower this morning. Price has moved further away from the 50-day EMA - the recent break of the average strengthened bearish conditions. The focus is on 123.010 next, the Jun 30 low. Further out, the 1200.00 handle beckons. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 124.930, the Aug 25 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook Intact

• RES 4: 109.830 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 19.539 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 109.330 High Aug 25 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 108.920 Low Aug 26 and gap high on the daily chart
• PRICE: 108.710 @ 05:32 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 108.505 Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: 108.425 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 108.336 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 4: 108.105 Low Jun 22

Schatz futures are trading lower this morning, confirming a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The contract remains vulnerable following the recent move lower. The 50-day EMA has been cleared - this recent breach reinforced bearish conditions. The focus is on 108.505, the Jun 29 low and 108.425, the Jun 28 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 109.330, the Aug 25 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bear Trend Remains In Play

• RES 4: 127.15 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 124.45/86 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 123.16 High Aug 25 and ey near-term resistance
• PRICE: 121.50 @ Close Aug 26
• SUP 1: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and a key support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 117.88 Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

BTP futures bearish conditions are intact - the contract has gapped lower today, reinforcing current trend conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move through 124.07 on Aug 19, confirmed a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 14 low. Sights are on 119.57, Jul 21 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 123.16, Aug 25 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U2) Heading South

• RES 4: 119-31 High Aug 15
• RES 3: 119-14+ High Aug 17
• RES 2: 118-28+ 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 117-29+/118-20 High Aug 26 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116-30+ @ 10:29 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 116-26+ Low Jun 29 and the intraday low
• SUP 2: 116-11 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 116-02+ 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 bull run
• SUP 4: 115-20 Low Jun 17

The Treasuries outlook remains bearish and the contract has resumed its downtrend, breaching last week’s low of 117-03+ on Aug 24 / 25 low. This confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and opens 116-11 next, the Jun 28 low. Further out, attention is on 116-02+, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance has been defined at 117-29+, Friday’s high. The 50-day EMA, at 118-28+ marks a firmer resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Sharp Sell-Off Resume Downtrend

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3621.00 Low Aug 23
• PRICE: 3551.00@ 05:39 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 3526.00 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 1: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3456.00 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 4: 3386.00 Low Jul 15

EUROSTOXX 50 futures sold off sharply Friday, ending a shallow correction and resuming the current bearish cycle. The break lower paves the way for an extension lower and attention is on 3526.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Scope is also seen for a move towards the 3500.00 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 3621.00, the Aug 23 low and a recent breakout level. Firmer resistance is at 3705.00, the Aug 26 high.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Breaches The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4288.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 4217.25 High AUg 26
• RES 1: 4110.75 Low Aug 24
• PRICE: 4019.75 @ 07:03 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 3983.25 50% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 2: 3902.01 61.8% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 3: 3834.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 4: 3801.49 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg

S&P E-Minis reversed off the day high of 4217.25 Friday. The impulsive sell-off reinforces bearish conditions and has resulted in a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 4088.49. The breach of this pivot support strengthens the case for bears and signals scope for weakness towards 3983.25 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 4217.25. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $108.55 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $102.47 - High Aug 25
• PRICE: $101.30 @ 07:08 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $96.53/91.22 - Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $85.88 - Low Feb 25

Last week’s climb in Brent futures has strengthened short-term conditions for bulls. Price has breached resistance at $100.38, Aug 12 high and traded above the 50-day EMA. The break highlights a stronger short-term reversal and opens $106.50, the Jul 29 high. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $91.22, Jul 14 low. A break would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $108.07 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $96.68 - High Aug 1
• PRICE: $93.70 @ 07:11 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $90.42/85.37 - Low Aug 23 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $84.10/00 - Low Mar 15 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $81.88 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $80.00 - Round number support

Gains last week in WTI futures have improved the short-term outlook for bulls. Resistance at $94.17, Aug 11 high, has been breached and the contract has also pierced the 50-day EMA. This highlights a stronger short-term reversal and signals scope for a climb towards $99.75, the Jul 29 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. This level is the bear trigger.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Theme Resumes

• RES 4: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $1774.9 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1765.5 - High Aug 25
• PRICE: $1723.6 @ 08:03 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $1711.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 10 upleg
• SUP 2: $1700.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and today’s move lower has reinforced a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards $1710.95, a Fibonacci retracement and $1700.00 further out. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $1765.53, high Aug 25.

SILVER TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $19.574/20.041- 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $18.585 @ 08:12 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: $18.519 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal is trading lower. Today’s weakness confirms a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 15. Scope is seen for an extension towards $18.1462, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $19.574, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.