MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Bear Threat Remain Present

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Trade Through A Key Support

• A bear cycle in the E-mini S&P contract remains in play and this week’s break lower reinforces current conditions. Thursday’s sell-off resulted in a break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low. The breach reinforces bearish conditions. Sights are on 4352.50, the Jun 8 low. Further out, scope is seen for a move to 4318.00, the Jun 2 low. Initial firm resistance is 4502.22, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a softer tone following this week’s move lower. Attention is on key support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low. This level has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and open 4163.00, the 1.00 projection of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4359.00, the Sep 15 high. A break would be bullish. INitial resistance is at 4294.20, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, the EURUSD trend condition is bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low Thursday before recovering. The breach of 1.0632, the Sep 14 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 1.0611, 38.2% of the Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg. Initial firm resistance is 1.0749, the 20-day EMA. {GB} GBPUSD remains in a clear downtrend and the pair traded lower once again Thursday. Support at 1.2308, the May 25 low, has been breached. The move down confirms a resumption of the bear trend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.2227, the 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing. On the upside, initial firm resistance 1.2425, the Sep 19 high. The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and the pair traded higher Thursday before finding some resistance. The focus is on a climb towards 148.60 next, 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards the 150.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 145.91, the Sep 11 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold traded higher Wednesday but quickly pulled back from the session high. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA does highlight a possible developing bullish threat. Key resistance is at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high where a break is required to confirm a bullish theme. On the downside, $1901.1, the Sep 14 low, marks a key near-term support. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose $1884.9, the Aug 21 low. In the oil space, the uptrend in WTI futures remains intact, however, the contract remains in a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The trend condition is overbought and a move lower would allow this to unwind. The first key support to watch lies at $86.58, the 20-day EMA and is a potential short-term objective. On the upside, clearance of Tuesday’s $92.43 high would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $94.66, the 2.236 projection of the Jun 28 - Jul 13 - Jul 17 price swing.
• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a downtrend. The contract has breached support this week at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. The break reinforces a bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on the 129.00 handle next. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 131.49, the Sep 14 high. A break would be a bullish development. Initial firm resistance is at 130.62, the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures have recovered from this week’s low and on Wednesday, breached resistance at 96.49, the Sep 14 high. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 17 and this opens the 97.00 handle. Key short-term support has been defined at Monday’s 94.64 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would threaten the bullish condition and expose 94.05, the Sep 11 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.1005 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 1.0945 High Aug 30 and reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0826 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0740/69 20-day EMA / High Sep 12
• PRICE: 1.0655 @ 05:41 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 1.0611 38.2% of the Sep’22 - Jul’23 upleg
• SUP 2: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0484 Low Jan 6

The EURUSD trend condition is bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low Thursday before recovering. The breach of 1.0632, the Sep 14 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position, highlighting current sentiment. Sights are on 1.0611, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is 1.0749, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.2746 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2595 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2548 High Sep 11 and Low Aug 25
• RES 1: 1.2351/2425 High Sep 21 / High Sep 19
• PRICE: 1.2283 @ 05:51 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 1.2227 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.2177 2.382 projection of the Jul 14 - 24 - 27 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2120 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 14 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.2028 Low Mar 16

GBPUSD remains in a clear downtrend and the pair traded lower once again Thursday. Support at 1.2308, the May 25 low, has been breached. The move down confirms a resumption of the bear trend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.2227, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2548, the Sep 11 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

EURGBP TECHS: Pierces Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 2: 0.8701 High Jul 19 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8694 High Sep 21
• PRICE: 0.8674 @ 06:05 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 0.8596/69 50-day EMA / Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8524 Low Sep 06
• SUP 3: 0.8516 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger

A short-term bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and the cross traded to a fresh high yesterday. Price has recently breached resistance at 0.8611, the Aug 30 high, and the continuation higher has resulted in a print above 0.8679, trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of the trendline would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 0.8569, the Sep 15 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains Intact

• RES 4: 149.71 High Oct 24 2022
• RES 3: 149.10 High Oct 25 2022
• RES 2: 148.85 High Oct 31 2022
• RES 1: 148.60 2.236 projection of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• PRICE: 148.04 @ 06:30 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 146.99/145.91 20-day EMA / Low Sep 11
• SUP 2: 145.13 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1 and key support
• SUP 4: 143.30 Low Aug 10

The USDJPY trend needle continues to point north and the pair traded higher Thursday before finding some resistance. The focus is on a climb towards 148.60 next, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position, highlighting the market's positive sentiment. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards the 150.00 handle. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 145.91, the Sep 11 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Testing Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 160.66 2.382 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Psychological handle
• RES 2: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.65/159.76 High Sep 13 / High Aug 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 157.27 @ 20:58 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 156.59 Low Sep 11 and a key support
• SUP 2: 156.35 Low Aug 8
• SUP 3: 155.54 Low Aug 3
• SUP 4: 154.61 61.8% retracement of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 rally

EURJPY continues to trade inside a range. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA - at 157.10. This average has been pierced. A clear breach of it would undermine the uptrend and highlight a possible short-term reversal that would expose 155.54, Aug 3 low. The bull trigger is unchanged at 159.76, Aug 30 high where a break would resume the uptrend and open 160.66, a Fibonacci projection. First resistance is 158.65, the Sep 13 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.6630 High Aug 2
• RES 3: 0.6616 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.6522 High Aug 30 and Sep 1, and the key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6508 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.6426 @ 06:57 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 0.6357 Low Sep 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6287 2.00 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6215 2.236 proj of the Jun 16 - Jun 29 - Jul 13 price swing

AUDUSD traded lower Thursday. The trend condition is unchanged and remains bearish. Key support and the bear trigger at 0.6365, the Aug 17 low, has recently been pierced. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6272, the Nov 3 2022 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. A break would signal a likely short-term trend reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3805 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 1.3710 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 2022 high
• RES 2: 1.3593/95 High Sep 12 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3523 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3469 @ 07:24 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 1.3381 Low Sep 19
• SUP 2: 1.3323 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3266 Low Aug 2
• SUP 4: 1.3235 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Sep 7 bull leg

USDCAD maintains a softer tone despite its latest gains. This week’s move down has resulted in a break of 1.3490, the Sep 1 low and this was followed by a clear breach of the 50-day EMA, at 1.3474. The move lower reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The focus is on 1.3323 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.3523, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Bears Remains In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 132.91 High Aug 8
• RES 3: 132.78 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 131.82 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 130.62/131.49 20-day EMA / High Sep 14
• PRICE: 129.55 @ 05:22 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 129.11 Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: 129.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 128.45 1.236 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing
• SUP 4: 127.92 1.382 proj of the Jul 19 - Aug 4 - Aug 8 price swing

Bund futures remain in a downtrend. The contract has breached support this week at 129.72, the Aug 14 low and a key bear trigger. The break reinforces a bearish theme and confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on the 129.00 handle next. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 131.49, the Sep 14 high. A break would be a bullish development. Initial firm resistance is at 130.62, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Southbound

• RES 4: 116.890 High Sep 8 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 116.401/740 20-day EMA / High Sep 14
• RES 2: 116.210 High Sep 18
• RES 1: 116.150 Intraday high
• PRICE: 115.850 @ 05:28 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 115.540 Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: 115.450 1.50 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.349 1.618 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.223 1.764 proj of the Sep 8 - 13 - 14 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a clear downtrend and this week’s breach of 116.00, the Aug 15 low and key support, reinforces a bearish theme. The break lower has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 115.450 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at 116.740, the Sep 14 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal a possible short-term base.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.170 High Sep 14 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.117 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 105.010 Low Sep 13
• RES 1: 104.980 Intraday high
• PRICE: 104.915 @ 10:07 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 104.765 Low Sep 21
• SUP 2: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.645 Low Jul 12 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.620 Low Jul 11 (cont)

Schatz futures maintain a bearish tone and this week’s move lower reinforces this condition. The recent break of support at 105.130, the Sep 7 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and has maintained the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 104.720, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 105.170, the Sep 14 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z3) Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 97.68 1.00 proj of the Aug 17 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• RES 3: 97.57 High Jul 24(cont)
• RES 2: 97.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 96.71 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 95.87 @ Close Sep 21
• SUP 1: 95.15/94.64 Low Sep 21 / 18
• SUP 2: 94.05 Low Sep 11
• SUP 3: 93.36 Low Sep 6 and a key support
• SUP 4: 93.00 Round number support

Gilt futures have recovered from this week’s low and on Wednesday, breached resistance at 96.49, the Sep 14 high. The break of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 17 and this opens the 97.00 handle. Key short-term support has been defined at Monday’s 94.64 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would threaten the bullish condition and expose 94.05, the Sep 11 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 117.48/60 High Jul 19 / Jun 26 and key resistance (cont)
• RES 3: 116.86 High Jul 24 (cont)
• RES 2: 115.56 High Aug 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 113.05/113.84 20-day EMA / High Sep 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 111.80 @ Close Sep 21
• SUP 1: 111.67 Low Sep 19
• SUP 2: 111.22 Low Sep 21
• SUP 3: 110.77 3.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 28 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 110.00 Round number support

The Sep 15 sharp sell-off in BTP futures cancelled a recent bullish threat and this week’s move lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has breached key support at 111.97, the Sep 13 low and this maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 110.77, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 113.84, the Sep 14 high. A break would highlight a possible base.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z3) Clears Support

• RES 4: 111-12+ High Sep 1 key resistance
• RES 3: 110-29+ 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 110-07+ High Sep14
• RES 1: 109-03/109-30 Low Sep 13 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 108-15+ @ 19:32 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 108-16 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 108-00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 107.23 1.236 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 107-05+ 1.382 proj of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing

Treasuries have traded lower today. This week’s move down has resulted in a breach of support at 109-03, the Sep 13 / 19 low. The move below 109-03 cancels a recent reversal signal - a hammer candle on Sep 13, and this reinforces a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open 108-00 and 107-23, the 1.236 projection of the Jul 18 - Aug 4 - Aug 10 price swing. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 110-07+, the Sep 14 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Testing Key Support

• RES 4: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 3: 4409.60 61.8% retracement of the Jul 31 - Sep 8 downleg
• RES 2: 4388.00 High Aug 30 and key resistance
• RES 1: 4294.20/4359.00 High Jul 21 / High Sep 15
• PRICE: 4221.00 @ 10:08 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 4204.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4163.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing
• SUP 3: 4142.80 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Jul 31 climb (cont)
• SUP 4: 4109.90 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - 18 - 30 price swing

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a softer tone following this week’s move lower. Attention is on key near-term support at 4210.00, the Sep 8 low. This level has been pierced, a clear break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late July and pave the way for a move towards 4163.00, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 4359.00, the Sep 15 high. A break would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Trades Through Key Support

• RES 4: 4673.50 High Aug 1
• RES 3: 4617.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 sell-off
• RES 2: 4566.00/4597.50 High Sep 15 / 1 and a near-term bull trigger
• RES 1: 4447.00/4502.22 High Sep 21 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4381.75 @ 06:54 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 4377.85 0.764 proj of the Jul 27 - Aug 18 - Sep 1 price swing
• SUP 2: 4352.50 Low Jun 8
• SUP 3: 4318.00 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 4300.62 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - Jul 27 bull cycle

A bear cycle in S&P E-minis remains in play and this week’s break lower reinforces current conditions. Thursday’s sell-off has resulted in a break of support at 4397.75, the Aug 18 low. The breach reinforces bearish conditions and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 4352.50, the Jun 8 low. Further out, scope is seen for a move to 4318.00, the Jun 2 low. Initial firm resistance is 4502.22, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X3) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: $100.50 - 1.00 proj of Jun 23 - Aug 10 - Aug 24 price swing
• RES 3: $100.00 - Key psychological round number
• RES 2: $96.95 - High Nov 14 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: $95.96 - High Sep 19
• PRICE: $93.82 @ 06:59 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: $90.64 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $87.37/86.55 - High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $81.61 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $77.84 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in Brent futures remains intact, however, resistance this week has forced price lower and Tuesday’s trend high of $95.96, remains intact. The trend condition is overbought and a corrective cycle lower would allow this condition to unwind. Initial key support lies at $90.64, the 20-day EMA. On the upside, a move above $95.96 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $96.95, the Nov 14 2022 high (cont).

WTI TECHS: (X3) Overbought Condition Unwinding

• RES 4: $97.08 - 1.236 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: $95.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $93.31 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 28 - Aug 10 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: $92.43 - High Sep 19
• PRICE: $90.17 @ 07:04 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: $86.58 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $83.49/82.32 - High Aug 10 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $77.32 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $73.40 - Low Jul 17

The uptrend in WTI futures remains intact, however, the contract remains in a short-term bearish corrective cycle. The trend condition is overbought and a move lower would allow this to unwind. The first key support to watch lies at $86.58, the 20-day EMA and is a potential short-term objective. On the upside, clearance of Tuesday’s $92.43 high would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open $94.66, a Fibonacci projection.

GOLD TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: $1987.5 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $1963.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 20 - Aug 21 bear leg
• RES 2: $1953.0 - High Sep 1 and key resistance
• RES 1: $1947.5 - High Sep 20
• PRICE: $1925.0 @ 07:21 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: $1901.1 - Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: $1884.9 - Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull leg

Gold traded higher Wednesday but quickly pulled back from the session high. The recent breach of the 50-day EMA does highlight a possible developing bullish threat. Key resistance is at $1953.0, the Sep 1 high where a break is required to confirm a bullish theme. On the downside, $1901.1, the Sep 14 low, marks a key near-term support. A breach of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and expose $1884.9, the Aug 21 low.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $26.135 - High May 5 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.014/149 - High Aug 30 / High Jul 27
• RES 1: $24.020 - High Sep 5
• PRICE: $23.664 @ 07:55 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: $22.301 - Low Sep 14
• SUP 2: $22.227 - Low Aug 15 and key support
• SUP 3: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver maintains a softer tone despite the recent recovery which appears to be a correction. The metal has recently cleared $23.413, the Aug 23 low. The break signalled scope for a deeper pullback and a continuation lower would open $22.227, the Aug 15 low. For bulls, a stronger reversal would refocus attention on resistance at $25.014 and $26.267, the Aug 30 and Jul 20 highs respectively. First resistance is at $24.020, the Sep 5 high.