MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Clear Key Resistance

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Clear Key Resistance

• S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish following recent gains. Resistance at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a medium-term bull trigger, has been cleared. The break reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started in October 2022. Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Friday as the contract recovered from last Wednesday’s low of 4216.00. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction. Price action earlier last week reinforced a bearish theme - support at 4252.00, the May 25 low has been breached.
• AUDUSD is trading higher following today’s RBA decision, marking an extension of the recovery from the May 31 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared The average intersects at 0.6653. This signals scope for a stronger recovery and opens 0.6710, May 16 high. GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday but did find support at the day low. The latest pullback highlights a bearish threat and key short-term resistance has been defined at Friday’s 1.2545 high. The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The top of a bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.06 today, represents key resistance. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61.
• The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and. The yellow metal is once again testing trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. The trendline intersects at $1949.1. A clear breach of this trendline would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5. WTI futures traded higher yesterday, piercing resistance at $74.73, the May 24 high. However, the contract has failed to hold on to its latest gains. A clear break of $74.73 would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension higher.
• Bund futures have pulled back from last week’s high of 135.85 on Jun 1 and remain below this resistance. A continuation lower would expose key near-term support at 133.45, the May 30 low and if this level gives way, potential would be seen for weakness towards key support. Gilt futures have recently recovered from 94.21, the May 26 low, allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Gains are considered corrective and the primary short-term trend condition remains bearish.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 1.1007 High May 10
• RES 3: 1.0905 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.0829 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.0789 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0726 @ 06:05 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.0675/35 Low Jun 5 / Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 1.0551 Low Mar 16
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and a key support

EURUSD short-term gains are considered corrective and the downtrend remains intact. Fresh trend lows last week reinforce bearish conditions and price continues to trade below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Note too that 1.0653 has been breached, 76.4% of the Mar 15 - Apr 26 rally and this opens 1.0551, the Mar 16 low. A firm resistance is seen at 1.0789, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.

GBPUSD TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2641 High May 11
• RES 2: 1.2592 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 25 bear cycle
• RES 1: 1.2461/2545 High Jun 5 / High Jun 2 and key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2456 @ 06:11 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.2348/2308 Low May 31 / 25 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2242 50.0% retracement of the Mar 8 - May 10 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.2213 Low Mar 27

GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday but did find support at the day low. The latest pullback highlights a bearish threat and key short-term resistance has been defined at Friday’s 1.2545 high. Note too that, despite a brief test above it last week, the 61.8% retracement of the May 10 - 25 downleg at 1.2538 remains intact. A continuation lower would open 1.2308, May 25 low and key support. Clearance of Friday’s high is required to reinstate the recent bull cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 0.8814 High May 5
• RES 3: 0.8768 High May 5
• RES 2: 0.8726 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8636/8671 High Jun 5 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8616 @ 06:30 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 0.8567 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 2022 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8522 Low Aug 30 2022

Recent gains in EURGBP appear to be a correction and the primary downtrend remains intact. Moving average studies highlight a bearish condition - the 50-dma has crossed below the 200-dma highlighting a bearish death cross signal. The focus is on 0.8547, the Dec 1 2022 low and a key support. The trend is oversold - a price reversal would signal scope for a correction. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8671 the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The Channel Top Still Intact

• RES 4: 142.51 61.8% of the Oct 16 2022 - Jan 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 142.16/35 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Nov 21 2022
• RES 2: 141.61 High Nov 23 2022
• RES 1: 140.45/141.06 High Jun 5 / Bull channel top from Jan 16 low
• PRICE: 139.53 @ 15:48 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 138.45 Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: 138.33 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 137.43 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 136.31 Low May 17

The trend condition in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The top of a bull channel, drawn from the Jan 16 low, which intersects at 141.06 today, represents key resistance. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 141.61, the Nov 23 2022 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would highlight a potential top. Key support to watch is 138.33, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 152.81 1.50 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 150.20/ 151.07 High Jun 5 / May 29
• PRICE: 149.53 @ 07:17 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 148.59 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 147.72/146.84 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.13 Low May 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: 145.67 High Mar 31

EURJPY maintains a short-term bullish tone despite the latest pullback. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position and recent strength resulted in a breach of 150.32, 76.4% of the May 2 - 11 sell-off. This break opens 151.61, the May 2 high and a bull trigger. The 50-day EMA, which intersects at 147.72, remains intact and is a key support. A clear break of it is required to signal a reversal. Initial support lies at 148.59, the May 31 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Breaches The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6818 High May 10 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.6733 76.4% retracement of the May 10 - 31 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6710 High May 16
• RES 1: 0.6673 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.6664 @ 05:50 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 0.6567/6458 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.6403 76.4% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10 2022
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 2022

AUDUSD is trading higher following today’s RBA decision, marking an extension of the recovery from the May 31 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has been cleared The average intersects at 0.6653. This signals scope for a stronger recovery and opens 0.6710, May 16 high. On the downside, a reversal lower is required to refocus attention on 0.6458, the May 31 low. A break of this support would resume the downtrend that started Feb 2.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 1.3730 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 low
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.3516/85 20-day EMA / High Jun 1
• PRICE: 1.3403 @ 07:59 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 1.3397 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3363 Low May 11
• SUP 3: 1.3315 Low May 8
• SUP 4: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support

USDCAD maintains a softer tone following the reversal from the May 26 high of 1.3655. Price is trading lower today. The impulsive nature of the latest sell-off signals scope for a deeper pullback and the next support to watch is 1.3404, the May 16 low. This level has been pierced, a clear break would expose 1.3315, the May 8 low and a key support point. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.3516, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Remains Below Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 136.97 High Apr 6
• RES 3: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 2: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 134.70 High May 5
• PRICE: 133.96 @ 05:08 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 133.88 Low Jun 5
• SUP 2: 133.45 Low MAy 30
• SUP 3: 133.00 76.4%retracement of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support

Bund futures have pulled back from last week’s high of 135.85 on Jun 1 and remain below this resistance. A continuation lower would expose key near-term support at 133.45, the May 30 low and if this level gives way, potential would be seen for weakness towards key support at 132.12, the May 26 low. For bulls, price needs to clear 135.85 to reinstate a bullish theme and open 136.50, May 11 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 118.130 High May 11
• RES 3: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 117.000 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 116.650 @ 04:58 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 116.590 Low Jun 5
• SUP 2: 116.400 Low May 30
• SUP 3: 116.302 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: 115.870 Low May 26

Bobl futures remain softer following the pullback from last week’s high of 117.700 on Jun 1. A continuation lower would expose support at 116.400, the May 30 low and if this level is cleared, potential would be seen for weakness towards key short-term support at 115.870, the May 26 low. On the upside, a break of 117.700 is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme and this would open the 118.00 handle.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Pullback Exposes Key Short-Term Support

• RES 4: 105.975 High May 17
• RES 3: 105.875 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 105.815 High Jun 4
• RES 1: 105.595 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 105.460 @ 05:43 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 105.425 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 105.360 Low May 29
• SUP 3: 105.330 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

Schatz futures remain below last week’s high of 105.875 on Jun 1 and the contract is trading at its recent lows. A continuation lower would expose key short-term support at 105.330, the May 26 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and signal scope for weakness towards the 105.00 handle. On the upside, 105.875 marks the key short-term resistance. A breach of this hurdle would be bullish.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 98.95 Low May 18
• RES 3: 98.80 High May 22
• RES 2: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 97.78 High May 23
• PRICE: 96.44 @ Close Jun 5
• SUP 1: 95.93 50.0% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 2: 94.91/21 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 94.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 93.45 1.618 projection of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 swing (cont)

Gilt futures have recently recovered from 94.21, the May 26 low, allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Gains are considered corrective and the primary short-term trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a bear cycle. A resumption of weakness would open the 94.00 handle next. The bear trigger is 94.21, the May 26 low. Initial resistance to watch is at 97.78, the May 23 high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 118.97 Low Nov 30 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.56 Hgh Jan 19 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 2: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 1: 117.17 High Mar 24 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 116.12 @ Close Jun 5
• SUP 1: 115.60 Low May 31
• SUP 2: 114.06/112.60 Low May 30 / 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

BTP futures traded higher last week. The contract has cleared the 20- and 50-day EMAs and this strengthens current short-term bullish conditions. Furthermore, 115.89, the May 11 high, has been breached, paving the way for an extension towards 117.17, the Mar 24 high. On the downside, initial, initial firm support lies at 114.06, the May 30 low. A break of this level would signal a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4457.50 0.5 proj of the Mar 20 - Apr 21 - May 4 price swing
• RES 3: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 2: 4409.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 1: 4362.00 High May 29
• PRICE: 4293.00 @ 06:38 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 4216.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures traded higher Friday as the contract recovered from last Wednesday’s low of 4216.00. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction. Price action earlier last week reinforced a bearish theme - support at 4252.00, the May 25 low has been breached. Price has also pierced support at 4233.00, the May 4 low and a key short-term level. Resistance to watch is 4362.00, May 29 high, a break would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Northbound

• RES 4: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4327.50 High Aug 16 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4305.75 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 4280.25 @ 06:58 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: 4229.00 Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: 4193.47 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4149.71 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4144.00 Low May 24 and a key support

S&P E-minis trend conditions remain bullish following recent gains. Resistance at 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a medium-term bull trigger, has been cleared. The break reinforces bullish conditions and confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started in October 2022. The focus is on 4327.50 next, the Aug 16 2022 high (cont). The 50-day EMA, at 4149.71 remains a key support. A break is required to signal a reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $78.73 - High Jun 5 and a short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: $76.39 @ 06:45 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $74.18 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: $71.50/71.20 - Low May 31 / 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Brent futures traded higher yesterday and pierced resistance at $78.50, the May 24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension higher. This would open $80.08, the Apr 28 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead signal a top and this would once again expose key support at $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low.

WTI TECHS: (N3) Fails To Hold On to Its Most Recent Gains

• RES 4: $80.93 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.00 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.74 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $75.06 - High Jun 5 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $71.68 @ 07:11 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $70.00 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 2: $67.03/63.90 - Low May 31 / 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures traded higher yesterday, piercing resistance at $74.73, the May 24 high. However, the contract has failed to hold on to its latest gains. A clear break of $74.73 would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for an extension higher. This would open $76.74, the Apr 28 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would instead signal a top and this would once again expose key support at $63.90, the May 4 low.

GOLD TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Exposed But Holds For Now

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1985.3 - High May 24 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $1960.3 @ 07:04 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $1932.2/18.3 - Low May 31 / Low Mar 17
• SUP 2: $1903.5 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 3: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle

The bear cycle in Gold remains intact and. The yellow metal is once again testing trendline support drawn from Nov 3 2022. The trendline intersects at $1949.1. A clear breach of this trendline would reinforce bearish conditions and open $1903.5, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. A break of this level is required to signal a short-term reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.022/24.492 - High Jun 2 / Low Apr 25
• PRICE: $23.497 @ 08:02 BST Jun 6
• SUP 1: $22.682 - Low May 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

The Silver trend condition remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. The May 11 sell-off confirmed a double top reversal following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. The subsequent bearish extension has reinforced the importance of this reversal pattern, highlighting a change in sentiment. Sights are set on $22.284 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. Initial firm resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point.