MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Uptrend Remains Intact

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Short-Term Trend Needle Still Points North

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintains a bullish tone and pullbacks are considered corrective. Price has recently breached 4119.50, the Mar 6 high, reinforcing a bullish theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension towards 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4039.75, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a firmer tone despite the latest pullback. Price has recently pierced resistance at 4268.00, Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4300.00 next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4173.00, the 20-day EMA.
• In FX, EURUSD maintains a firmer tone despite Wednesday's move lower. Price has this week breached resistance at 1.0930, Mar 23 high. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme and signals scope for 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0802 (20-day EMA) and 1.0730 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would be bearish. GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone. The pair has this week breached key resistance at 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad range that started December 14 2022. The break represents an important short and medium-term development and signals the next stage of the uptrend that started Sep 26 last year. The focus is on 1.2603 next, the top of a MA envelope study. Support to watch lies at 1.2279, the 20-day EMA. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has recently been tested, it intersects at 133.17 and represents a key S/T hurdle for bulls. A clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg. The bear trigger is at 129.64, Mar 24 low. A break would resume the downtrend.
• On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has cleared resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next, the 2.00 projection of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1934.3, the Mar 22 low - a break would highlight a potential reversal. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and Monday’s gap higher strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.81 this week, above key resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher Wednesday and the contract is firmer today, as the recovery from 134.70 extends, the Mar 31 low. 137.85, Mar 27 high, has been tested. A break of this level would open 139.54, Mar 24 high. Key resistance is still far off at 140.30, Mar 20 high. Initial support to watch is 135.87, the 20-day EMA. Gilt futures have recovered from recent lows and the contract is trading higher again today. For now, gains are considered corrective, however, a continuation higher would open 105.04, 50.0% of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg and 105.62, the Mar 27 high. Initial support to watch is 103.86, the 20-day EMA where a break would signal a potential bearish reversal.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact Despite Pullback

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 2: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.0973 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 1.0894 @ 05:52 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 1.0883 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 1.0802/0788 20-day EMA / Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.0730 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0631 Low Mar 20

EURUSD maintains a firmer tone despite Wednesday's move lower. Price has this week breached resistance at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. This level marked a key short-term hurdle for bulls and the clear break reinstates the recent bull theme and signals scope for 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0802 (20-day EMA) and 1.0730 (50-day EMA). A move through this support zone would be bearish.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bullish Following Range Breakout

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 3: 1.2603 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2525 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 1.2443 @ 06:05 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 1.2395 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 1.2279/75 20-day EMA / Low Apr 3
• SUP 3: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 1.2183 50-day EMA

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone. The pair has this week breached a key resistance at 1.2448, the Jan 23 high and the top of a broad range that started December 14 2022. The break represents an important short and medium-term development and signals the next stage of the uptrend that started Sep 26 last year. The focus is on a climb towards 1.2603 next, the top of a MA envelope study. Support to watch lies at 1.2279, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8866/71 High Mar 23 / Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8788/0.8829 High Apr 4 / High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.8752 @ 06:16 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 0.8729 Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP maintains a softer tone following this week’s move lower and attention is on support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would cancel a recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback, exposing 0.8691, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 0.8829, the Mar 30 high where a break is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 134.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 132.55/133.77 20-day EMA / 50.0% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• PRICE: 131.22 @ 06:26 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 130.64 Low Apr 5
• SUP 2: 129.64 Low Mar 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Resistance at the 50-day EMA has recently been tested, it intersects at 133.17 and represents a key S/T hurdle for bulls. A clear break would suggest scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 133.77, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, the bear trigger is at 129.64, Mar 24 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact - For Now

• RES 4: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 3: 147.10 High Nov 9 2022
• RES 2: 146.73 High Dec 15
• RES 1: 144.45/145.80 High Apr 5 / 76.4% of Oct 21 - Jan 3 downleg
• PRICE: 142.95 @ 06:42 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 142.55 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 141.79 Low Mar 29 and a key support
• SUP 3: 141.05 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 140.41 Low Mar 27

EURJPY traded lower Wednesday and remains below its recent highs. The cross has recently pierced key resistance at 145.57, the Mar 2 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and pave the way for gains above 146.00, towards 146.73, the Dec 15 high. Momentum studies remain in a bull-mode condition highlighting a likely uptrend. On the downside, the next support is seen at 141.79, the Mar 29 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fails To Remain Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6793 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 0.6693 @ 07:01 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 0.6651/25 Low Apr 3 / Low Mar 24 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD traded sharply higher Monday but has since pulled back and failed to remain above the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 0.6751 and marks a key short-term resistance. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen a bullish condition and open 0.6824, the Feb 24 high. On the downside, key short-term support to watch lies at 0.6625, the Mar 24 low. Clearance of this level would signal a stronger bearish reversal.

USDCAD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 1.3745 High Mar 27
• RES 3: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 2: 1.3574/3587 50- and 20-day EMA values
• RES 1: 1.3537 High Ar 3
• PRICE: 1.3480 @ 07:24 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 1.3404 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 2: 1.3358 Low Feb 16
• SUP 3: 1.3334 Low Feb 15
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support

USDCAD remains bearish and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA and 1.3562, 50% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally. The move lower signals scope for an extension and note that 1.3491 was cleared on Apr 3, the 61.8% retracement. The break opens 1.3404, the 76.4% retracement point. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3537, Monday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 137.85 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 137.17 @ 05:24 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 135.87/134.70 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 133.33 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally

Bund futures traded higher Wednesday as the recovery from 134.70 extends. A continuation would signal scope for a test of 137.85, the Mar 27 high. Key resistance is still far off at 140.30, the Mar 20 high. On the downside, initial support to watch is 135.87, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger lies at 134.70, a break would resume the recent bearish theme and open 134.15, a Fibonacci retracement.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 119.170 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 118.670 @ 05:38 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 117.947/200 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally

Bobl futures have recovered from recent lows and the contract traded higher again Wednesday. For now, these gains are considered corrective. However, a continuation higher would open 119.170, the Mar 27 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 117.947, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger is at 117.200, the Mar 32 low, where a break would resume the recent bearish theme and open 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Support Remains Exposed Despite Recent Gains

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 106.695 High Mar 24
• RES 1: 106.315 High Mar 27
• PRICE: 106.025 @ 05:44 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 105.763/105.465 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

Schatz futures have recovered from recent lows and the contract traded higher Wednesday. A short-term bearish threat remains present and recent gains are considered corrective - for now. The next resistance is at 106.315, the Mar 27 high. On the downside, initial support lies at 105.763, the 20-day EMA. The bear trigger lies at 105.465, the Mar 31, low where a break would open 105.336, a Fibonacci retracement.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Bear Threat Present Despite Bounce

• RES 4: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 3: 106.25 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 2: 105.62 High Mar 27
• RES 1: 105.04 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• PRICE: 104.26 @ Close Apr 5
• SUP 1: 103.86/102.74 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally
• SUP 3: 102.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 101.12 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 20 rally

Gilt futures traded higher Monday and price remains above 102.74, the Mar 31 low. However, a short-term bearish threat is present - the recent move lower resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.86. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a continuation lower towards 102.31 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 105.04, a Fibonacci retracement.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 118.56 High Jan 19 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.18 @ Close Apr 5
• SUP 1: 115.00/114.04 20-day EMA / Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 113.71 50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 113.22 Low Mar 15
• SUP 4: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures traded higher Wednesday but have remained below 117.17, the Mar 24 high and key resistance. The short-term outlook appears bullish and the recent pullback corrective. However, price has recently traded through support at 115.00, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a bearish development and open 113.71, a Fibonacci retracement. The next resistance is at 116.53, the Mar 27 high.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 117-29+ High Aug 26 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 117-14+ High Aug 29 / 30 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 117-01+ High Mar 24 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 116-30 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 116-17+ @ 19:28 BST Apr 5
• SUP 1: 115-29/115-02+ Low Apr 5 / Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: 114-18+/07 20-day EMA / Low Mar 29 and 30
• SUP 3: 114-00+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 113-26 Low Mar 22

Treasury futures have traded higher again today, as the contract extends the recovery from last week’s low. The strong bounce undermines recent bearish signals and price has cleared resistance at 116-06+, the Mar 27 high. The continuation higher exposes 117-01+, the Mar 24 high and a key short-term resistance. A break would strengthen bullish conditions and open 117-14+, the Aug 29/30 2022 high (cont). Key support is at 114-07, the Mar 29/30 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 4381.50 High Jan 5
• RES 3: 4324.50 High Jan 13 2022 (cont)
• RES 2: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4293.00 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 4235.00 @ 06:14 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 4221.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 4173.00 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4128.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24

Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a firmer tone despite the latest pullback. Price has recently pierced resistance at 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open 4300.00 next. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a broader uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 4173.00, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4171.75 High Apr 4
• PRICE: 4106.25 @ 06:38 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: 4078.00 Low Mar 31
• SUP 2: 4039.75 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

S&P E-minis maintains a bullish tone and pullbacks are considered corrective. Price has recently breached resistance at 4119.50, reinforcing a bullish theme. The move higher has also resulted in a break of 4148.48, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg. This signals scope for an extension towards 4205.50, the Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and a key medium-term resistance. Firm support lies at 4039.75, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Bullish Condition Intact

• RES 4: $90.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.87 - High Jan 27
• RES 1: $86.44 - High Apr 3
• PRICE: $84.57 @ 06:54 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: $82.57 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 2: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $78.25 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend
• SUP 4: $76.32 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 3 uptrend

Brent futures are consolidating. The contract remains firm following Monday’s gap higher and print above resistance at $86.17, the Mar 7 high. The move confirms an extension of the recent recovery that started from the Mar 20 low. A clear break of $86.17 would strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards $88.35, the Jan 23 high. A large gap has appeared on the daily chart - key support lies at $79.95, the Mar 31 high and the gap low.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $87.48 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 3: $85.01 - High Nov 14
• RES 2: $83.04 - High Jan 23 and key resistance
• RES 1: $81.81 - High Apr 4
• PRICE: $80.15 @ 07:00 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: $77.60 - 23.6% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally
• SUP 2: $75.72 - High Mar 31 and a gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $70.98 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 3 rally

WTI futures remain in a bull cycle and Monday’s gap higher strengthens this current condition. The contract has touched a high of $81.81 this week, above key resistance at $81.04, the Mar 7 high. A clear break of $81.04 would signal scope for a continuation higher and open $83.04, the Jan 23 high. Key support is seen at $75.72, the Mar 31 high and the gap low on the daily chart. A pullback, if seen, would be considered corrective.

GOLD TECHS: Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2032.1 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $2015.2 @ 07:16 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: $1977.0/1955.7 - Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: $1909.2 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1871.6 - Low Mar 13

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and this week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has cleared resistance at 2009.7, the Mar 20 high, to post fresh YTD highs and signal scope for a climb towards $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1934.3, the Mar 22 low - a break would highlight a potential reversal.

SILVER TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.002 - High Apr 19 2022
• RES 2: $25.293 - High Apr 20 2022
• RES 1: $25.137 - High Apr 5
• PRICE: $24.853 @ 07:20 BST Apr 6
• SUP 1: $23.826 - Low Apr 4
• SUP 2: $23.169 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.590 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $21.474 - Low Mar 16

Silver remains firm and Tuesday’s strong gains reinforce current conditions. The break of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started early September 2022. This signals scope for a climb towards $25.293 next, the Apr 20 2022 high. On the downside, a key support is seen at $23.169, the 20-day EMA. The trend is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective.