MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P in Consolidation Mode

Price Signal Summary – S&P in Consolidation Mode

• S&P E-minis are consolidating and continue to trade above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4106.37. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode. Price is trading above support at 4233.90, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend is intact.
• The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Thursday’s pullback is considered corrective - for now. The pair has tested support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2515. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.2393, the 50-day EMA. USDJPY short-term conditions remain bearish and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. A continuation lower would open 133.50, the May 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open 133.02, the Apr 26 low. AUDUSD maintains a positive tone and Thursday’s sell-off is considered corrective - for now. This week’s test of key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high, reinforces a bullish theme. A clear break of this level would strengthen the case for bulls and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Gold trend conditions remain bullish. The yellow metal has recently breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. WTI futures have pulled back from recent highs. The latest recovery is considered corrective and the move higher has allowed a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high.
• Bund futures recovered again Thursday and in the process pierced resistance at 137.22, the May 4 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and a continuation higher would open 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 138.09, the Apr 6 high. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 100.37, the May 2 low. The move exposed key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. However, the latest recovery means that this level remains intact for now.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1054/95 High May 8 / High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1007 High May 10
• PRICE: 1.0925 @ 05:51 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.0900 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 1.0895 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0831 Low Apr 10
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

EURUSD traded lower Thursday and breached the former support at 1.0942, the May 2 low. The break signals scope for a deeper correction and has exposed 1.0895, the 50-day EMA and the next key support. More broadly, the uptrend remains intact and a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1095, the Apr 26 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection.

GBPUSD TECHS: Fades Off Highs

• RES 4: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 3: 1.2818 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2767 61.8% of the Jun 1 ‘21 - Sep 26 ‘22 downtrend
• RES 1: 1.2680 High May 10 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2524 @ 06:05 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.2497 Low May 11
• SUP 2: 1.2436 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 1.2393 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support

The trend outlook in GBPUSD remains bullish and Thursday’s pullback is considered corrective - for now. The pair has tested support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 1.2515. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.2393, the 50-day EMA. The trend outlook remains bullish. The bull trigger has been defined at 1.2680, the May 10 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the bull cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Despite Thursday’s Bounce

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8792 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8735/69 High May 11 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8726 @ 06:44 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 0.8661 Low May 10
• SUP 2: 0.8649 76.4% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 0.8593 Low Dec 15 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8562 Low Dec 13 2022

EURGBP trend conditions remain bearish following this week’s extension lower and despite Thursday’s bounce. The cross has cleared key support at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. This confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 3 and opens 0.8649, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a key resistance is seen at 0.8835, the May 3 high. A break would ease a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8769, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Threat

• RES 4: 139.59 50.0% retracement of the Oct - Jan bear cycle
• RES 3: 138.17 High Dec 15
• RES 2: 136.63/137.91 High May 3 / High Mar 8 and key resistance
• RES 1: 135.47/64 High May 10 / 50.0% of the May 2 - 4 bear leg
• PRICE: 134.60 @ 06:25 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 133.50 Low May 4
• SUP 2: 133.02 Low Apr 26 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 132.75 61.8% retracement of the Mar 24 - May 2 bull leg
• SUP 4: 132.02 Low Apr 13

USDJPY short-term conditions remain bearish and Wednesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. A continuation lower would open 133.50, the May 4 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle and open 133.02, the Apr 26 low. Note too that a break of 133.50 would confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA - a bearish development. Initial resistance is at 135.47, Wednesday’s high.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching Support At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 152.00 1.382 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 3: 151.61 High May 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 149.27/150.39 High May 8 / 3
• RES 1: 147.66 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 147.15 @ 06:58 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 146.13/146.02 Low May 11 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 145.82 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 145.67 High Mar 31
• SUP 4: 144.88 Low Apr 11

EURJPY traded lower again on Thursday. The cross has breached the 20-day EMA, and short-term trend conditions are bearish. A continuation lower would expose key support at 146.02, the 50-day EMA and 145.82, the lower band of a 2.0% 10-dma envelope. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and trend signals highlight an uptrend. Key resistance is at 151.61, May 2 high. Initial firm resistance is 149.27, the May 2 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6818 High May 10
• PRICE: 0.6694 @ 08:10 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 0.6686 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6640/6565 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 0.6565 Low Mar 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6547 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle

AUDUSD maintains a positive tone and Thursday’s sell-off is considered corrective - for now. This week’s test of key resistance at 0.6806, Apr 14 high, reinforces a bullish theme. A clear break of this level would strengthen the case for bulls and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a continuation lower would threaten the bullish theme and expose 0.6640, the May 4 low. Key support lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Strong Bounce Exposes The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 1.3668 High Apr 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3640 High May 3
• RES 1: 1.3518 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3492 @ 08:14 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 1.3363/15 Intraday low / Low May 8
• SUP 2: 1.3302 Low Apr 14 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 4: 1.3262 Low Feb 2

A strong rally in USDCAD Thursday has eased recent bearish pressure. The pair is approaching resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3518. A clear break of this level would be seen as a short-term bullish development and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 1.3668, the Apr 28 high. Key support lies at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low, where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Pierces Resistance

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 138.09 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 137.55 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 137.29 High May 11
• PRICE: 136.74 @ 05:22 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 135.55/4.99 20-day EMA / Low May 10
• SUP 2: 134.35 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 133.64 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 133.10 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger

Bund futures recovered again Thursday and in the process pierced resistance at 137.22, the May 4 high. This reinforces bullish conditions and a continuation higher would open 137.55, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 138.09, the Apr 6 high. On the downside, a break below Wednesday’s 134.99 low would expose 134.35, the May 2 low. Clearance of this level would open key support at 133.10, the Apr 19 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 120.130 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 119.621 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 downleg
• RES 2: 119.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 119.120 High May 4
• PRICE: 118.670 @ 05:29 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 117.998 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 117.930 Low May 10
• SUP 3: 117.370 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 116.890/420 Low Apr 28 / 19 and the bear trigger

A bullish theme in Bobl futures remains intact and the recovery from Wednesday’s low is a positive development, signalling the end of the most recent corrective pullback. Price has also remained above the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 117.998. A continuation higher would open 119.190, the Apr 6 high and 119.621, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support is at 117.988.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 106.533 76.4% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 106.271 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 106.190 High Apr 6
• RES 1: 106.020/106.120 High May 11 / 4
• PRICE: 105.890 @ 05:37 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 105.710/705 20-day EMA / Low May 10
• SUP 2: 105.475 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 105.350 Low Apr 28
• SUP 4: 105.165 Low Apr 19 / 24 and bear trigger

Schatz futures bullish conditions remain intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The focus is on a climb towards 106.190, the Apr 6 high and 106.271, a Fibonacci retracement point. The recovery from Wednesday’s low is a positive development and this means that prices have remained above the 20-day EMA. This average is an important short-term support and intersects at 105.710.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Key Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 103.53 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 102.99 High Apr 14
• RES 2: 102.63 38.2% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 101.98/102.46 High May 11 / 3
• PRICE: 101.51 @ Close May 11
• SUP 1: 100.65/99.97 Low May 11 / 10
• SUP 2: 99.73 Low Apr 19 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 4: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday and breached support at 100.37, the May 2 low. The move exposed key support at 99.73, the Apr 19 low. However, the latest recovery means that this level remains intact for now. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the key short-term resistance at 102.46, the May 3 high, where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. For bears, a break of 99.73 would strengthen a bearish threat.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 116.97 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 116.17 76.4% retracement of the Mar 24 - Apr 24 downleg
• RES 1: 115.89 High May 11
• PRICE: 115.51 @ Close May 11
• SUP 1: 114.64/113.91 20-day EMA / Low May 10
• SUP 2: 113.70 Low May 2
• SUP 3: 112.93/89 Low Apr 24 / 61.8% of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally

BTP futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and Thursday’s gains reinforce this condition. The contract has pierced resistance at 115.84, the May 4 high. A continuation higher would open 116.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would expose 116.97, the Apr 6 high ahead of key resistance at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. Weakness below 113.91, low May 10, would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4363.00 High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4312.00 @ 06:33 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 4236.30 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4233.00 Low May 4
• SUP 3: 4175.00 Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: 4164.00 High Mar 22

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in consolidation mode. Price is trading above support at 4233.90, the 50-day EMA. The recent move down is considered corrective and the broader uptrend is intact. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of 4363.00, the Apr 21 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a top.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M3) Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 4288.00 High Aug 19 2022
• RES 3: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 1: 4173.25/4206.25 High May 10 / 1
• PRICE: 4151.00 @ 07:11 BST May 12
• SUP 1: 4062.25 Low May 4 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 4052.50 Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: 4022.75 50.0% retracement of the Mar 13 - May 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 4006.00 Low Mar 29

S&P E-minis are consolidating and continue to trade above the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4106.37. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 4206.25, the May 1 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the bull trend that started Mar 13. Key support has been defined at 4062.25, the May 4 low. A move through this support would be a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N3) Finds Resistance

• RES 4: $85.08 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.88 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $79.81 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $77.97 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $74.74 @ 06:54 BST May 12
• SUP 1: $74.34/71.28 - Intraday low / Low May 4
• SUP 2: $70.10 - Low May 8 / Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)

Brent futures have pulled back from recent highs. The recovery that started on May 4 is considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. The impulsive bearish wave from Apr 12 signals scope for a test of key support at $70.10, the Mar 20 low. A break of this level would reinforce bearish conditions. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $77.97, the 20-day EMA ahead of $79.62, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Pulls Back From Recent Highs

• RES 4: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $79.18 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.92 - High Apr 28 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: $73.93 - Low Apr 28
• PRICE: $70.62 @ 07:08 BST May 12
• SUP 1: $68.48/63.64 - Low May 5 / 4
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $57.63 - Low Apr 5 2021

WTI futures have pulled back from recent highs. The latest recovery is considered corrective and the move higher has allowed a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at $73.93, the Apr 28 low ahead of $76.92, the Apr 28 high. On the downside, the recent print below $64.58, the Mar 20 low and a key support, reinforces a bearish theme. A clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Still Bullish

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 2: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2063.0 - High May 4
• PRICE: $2010.5 07:09 BST May 12
• SUP 1: $1999.6 - Low May 5
• SUP 2: $1973.2/1969.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 19 and key support
• SUP 3: $1934.3 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: $1900.0 - Round number support

Gold trend conditions remain bullish. The yellow metal has recently breached resistance at $2048.7, the Apr 13 high to confirm a resumption of the broader bull cycle. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up. The focus is on $2070.4, the Mar 8 2022 high ahead of the all-time high at $2075.5. Key support is 1969.3, the Apr 19 low.

SILVER TECHS: Double Top Reversal

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $24.492 - Apr 25 low and double top mid-point
• PRICE: $23.963 @ 08:03 BST May 12
• SUP 1: $23.755 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 2: $23.020 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $22.761 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 4: $22.284 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally

Silver traded sharply lower Thursday. The pullback confirms a short-term top and highlights a double top reversal following the break of $24.492, the Apr 25 low. Note too that the metal has breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move towards $23.755, 38.2% of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $24.492, the double top mid-point. Key resistance has been defined at $26.135, the May 5 high.