MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P Makes Clean Break of Key Level

Price Signal Summary - S&P Makes Clean Break of 50-day EMA

• S&P E-Minis stalled at Friday’s 4217.25 high. The impulsive sell-off reinforces bearish conditions and has resulted in a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 4086.25. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish following Friday’s sharp sell-off that confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The break lower paves the way for an extension lower and attention is on 3526.00, a Fibonacci retracement.
• EURUSD remains in a range though and is consolidating. The downtrend remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in breach of former key support at 0.9952, the Jul 14 low. The break confirmed an extension lower inside the bear channel. USDJPY short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair traded higher Monday, clearing recent resistance at 137.71, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and attention is on the next key resistance at 139.39, the Jul 14 high. A bearish threat in AUDUSD firmed Friday following a sharp reversal from the intraday high of 0.7009. Monday’s initial move lower marked a bearish start to the week and this resulted in a break of support at 0.6856, the Aug 23 low.
• Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and Monday’s move lower has reinforced a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. WTI futures traded higher Monday, clearing last week’s high and resuming the recovery that started Aug 16. This strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher - the focus is on $99.75, the Jul 29 high.
• Bund futures have started the week on a softer note and traded lower Monday. This reinforces current bearish conditions as price moves further away from the 50-day EMA. Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run continued last week. The sharp move lower reinforces a bearish theme and attention is on 108.94, the Aug 24 low and the bear trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.0327 High Aug 12
• RES 3: 1.0228 Channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0193 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 1.0090 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.9999 @ 06:10 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 2: 0.9800 Round number support
• SUP 3: 0.9785 2.00 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9690 Channel base drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD remains in a range though and is consolidating. The downtrend remains intact. Recent weakness resulted in breach of former key support at 0.9952, the Jul 14 low. The break confirmed an extension lower inside the bear channel (drawn from the Feb 10 high) and a resumption of the primary downtrend. The focus is on 0.9883 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 1.0090, the Aug 26 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Fresh Trend Low

• RES 4: 1.2073 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2004 Low Aug 5
• RES 2: 1.1901 High Aug 26
• RES 1: 1.1783 High Aug 29
• PRICE: 1.1706 @ 06:13 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 1.1649/1600 Low Aug 29 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 1.1503 Low Mar 24 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1447 Low Mar 23 2020
• SUP 4: 1.1412 Low Mar 20 2020 and a major support

GBPUSD started the week on a bearish note and traded lower Monday. The move lower resulted in a break of 1.1718, Aug 23 low, to confirm a resumption of primary downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a clear bear mode position, highlighting current sentiment. The focus is on 1.1600 next. On the upside Friday’s 1.1901 high marks the first key short-term resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8603 High Jul 6
• RES 3: 0.8631 76.4% retracement of the Jun 15 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8570 High Jul 22
• PRICE: 0.8543 @ 06:17 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 0.8457/8408 20-day EMA / Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 0.8388/40 Low Aug 17 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 0.8289 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14

EURGBP has started the week on a firmer note and traded sharply higher Monday. Price is again above the 50-day EMA. The recent high print of 0.8512 (Aug 19), was seen as a bullish development. This level was cleared yesterday and the break strengthens bullish conditions, resuming the uptrend that started early August. This has opened 0.8585, Jul 21 high. Initial key support to watch is at 0.8408, the Aug 24 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 140.86 1.764 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 3: 140.11 1.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 8 - 11 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 139.39 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• PRICE: 138.49 @ 06:23 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 135.82 Low Aug 23 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 134.90 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 133.91 Low Aug 17

USDJPY short-term conditions remain bullish and the pair traded higher Monday, clearing recent resistance at 137.71, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle and attention is on the next key resistance at 139.39, the Jul 14 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 135.82, the Aug 23 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Gains Expose Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 140.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 2 downleg
• RES 3: 140.07 High Jul 25
• RES 2: 139.09 Trendline resistance drawn from the Jun 28 high
• RES 1: 138.97 High Aug 29
• PRICE: 138.48 @ 14:17 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 137.03 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 135.52/34.95 Low Aug 24 / 16
• SUP 3: 133.40 Low Aug 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support

EURJPY traded higher today and in the process cleared the 50-day EMA at 137.84 and the Aug 10 high of 138.40. The break higher strengthens a short-term bullish picture and exposes 139.09. This is a trendline resistance drawn from the Jun 28 high and represents the next key hurdle for bulls. A breach would cancel the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. Key support is at 135.52.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.7137 High Aug 11
• RES 3: 0.7040 High Aug 16
• RES 2: 0.7009 High Aug 26 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.6944/60 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: 0.6901 @ 06:54 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 0.6841 Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 0.6789 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.6719 Low Jul 15
• SUP 4: 0.6682 14 and the bear trigger

A bearish threat in AUDUSD firmed Friday following a sharp reversal from the intraday high of 0.7009. Monday’s initial move lower marked a bearish start to the week and this resulted in a break of support at 0.6856, the Aug 23 low and highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Aug 11. Attention is on 0.6789, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.7009, Aug 26 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Price Action

• RES 4: 1.3300 High Nov 4 2020
• RES 3: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3135 High Jul 15
• RES 1: 1.3107 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Aug 11 downleg
• PRICE: 1.3005 @ 07:24 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 1.1.2932 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2895 Low Aug 25 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 1.2828 Low Aug 17
• SUP 4: 1.2770 Low Aug 15

USDCAD traded high initially yesterday, extending Friday’s gains and the bounce from 1.2895, the Aug 25 low. The move higher resulted in a print above resistance at 1.3063, Aug 23 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen bullish conditions and open 1.3107 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up, highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is at 1.2895. A break would alter the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 154.47 High Aug 18
• RES 3: 153.66 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 153.05 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 151.42 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 148.84 @ 05:14 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 147.94/92 61.8% of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 bull leg / Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: 146.50 Low Jun 30
• SUP 3: 144.72 Low Jun 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: 143.05 Low Jun 121

Bund futures have started the week on a softer note and traded lower Monday. This reinforces current bearish conditions as price moves further away from the 50-day EMA. The average marked a key support area and the recent breach strengthened bearish conditions. The focus is on the 147.94 next, a Fibonacci retracement briefly pierced yesterday. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 151.42, Aug 25 high.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 126.930 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.070 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 125.697 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 124.930 High Aug 25
• PRICE: 123.610 @ 05:19 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 123.010 Low Jun 30
• SUP 2: 122.022 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 rally
• SUP 3: 120.990 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 119.940 Low Jun 16

Bobl futures remain bearish and the contract gapped lower yesterday. Price has moved further away from the 50-day EMA - the recent break of the average strengthened bearish conditions. The focus is on 123.010 next, the Jun 30 low. Further out, the 120.00 handle beckons. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 124.930, the Aug 25 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 109.830 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 19.512 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 109.330 High Aug 25 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 108.920 Low Aug 26 and gap high on the daily chart
• PRICE: 108.835 @ 05:32 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 108.685/505 Low Aug 29 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: 108.425 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 108.336 76.4% retracement of the Jun 16 - Aug 2 upleg
• SUP 4: 108.105 Low Jun 22

Schatz futures traded lower Monday, confirming a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The contract remains vulnerable and further weakness is likely. The 50-day EMA has been cleared - this recent breach reinforced bearish conditions. The focus is on 108.505, the Jun 29 low and 108.425, the Jun 28 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 109.330, the Aug 25 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Heading South

• RES 4: 113.32 High AUg 18
• RES 3: 112.43 High Aug 22 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 111.54 High Aug 23
• RES 1: 110.85 High Aug 26
• PRICE: 110.23 @ Close Aug 26
• SUP 1: 108.94 Low Aug 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 108.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 107.36 1.00 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.54 1.236 projection of the Aug 22 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures remain vulnerable and the bearish impulsive run continued last week. The sharp move lower reinforces a bearish theme and attention is on 108.94, the Aug 24 low and the bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend and clear the way for the 108.00 handle. Initial firm resistance is seen at 112.43, the Aug 22 high. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bear Trend Remains In Play

• RES 4: 127.15 High Aug 17
• RES 3: 126.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 124.45/86 20- and 50-day EMA values
• RES 1: 123.16 High Aug 25 and ey near-term resistance
• PRICE: 121.50 @ Close Aug 26
• SUP 1: 119.57 Low Jul 21 and a key support
• SUP 2: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 3: 117.88 Low Jun 17
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

BTP futures bearish conditions are intact - the contract has gapped lower today, reinforcing current trend conditions. Recent weakness resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the move through 124.07 on Aug 19, confirmed a break of trendline support drawn from the Jun 14 low. Sights are on 119.57, Jul 21 low and a key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at 123.16, Aug 25 high. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U2) Heading South

• RES 4: 119-31 High Aug 15
• RES 3: 119-14+ High Aug 17
• RES 2: 118-28+ 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 117-29+/118-20 High Aug 26 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 116-31 @ 11:05 BST Aug 29
• SUP 1: 116-26+ Low Jun 29 and the intraday low
• SUP 2: 116-11 Low Jun 28
• SUP 3: 116-02+ 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 bull run
• SUP 4: 115-20 Low Jun 17

The Treasuries outlook remains bearish and the contract has resumed its downtrend, breaching last week’s low of 117-03+ on Aug 24 / 25 low. This confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle and opens 116-11 next, the Jun 28 low. Further out, attention is on 116-02+, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance has been defined at 117-29+, Friday’s high. The 50-day EMA, at 118-28+ marks a firmer resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 3822/40.00 High Aug 17 / High Jun 6 and key resistance zone
• RES 3: 3782.00 High Aug 18
• RES 2: 3705.00 High Aug 26 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 3621.00 Low Aug 23
• PRICE: 3590.00@ 05:34 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 3526.00 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 2: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3456.00 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 17 rally
• SUP 4: 3386.00 Low Jul 15

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain bearish following Friday’s sharp sell-off that confirmed a resumption of the current bearish cycle. The break lower paves the way for an extension lower and attention is on 3526.00, a Fibonacci retracement. Scope is also seen for a move towards the 3500.00 handle. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 3621.00, the Aug 23 low and a recent breakout level. Firmer resistance is at 3705.00, the Aug 26 high.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4327.50 High Aug 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4288.00 High Aug 19
• RES 2: 4217.25 High AUg 26
• RES 1: 4110.75 Low Aug 24
• PRICE: 4044.25 @ 06:57 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: 3983.25 50% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 2: 3902.01 61.8% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg
• SUP 3: 3834.00 Low Jul 19
• SUP 4: 3801.49 76.4% retracement of the Jun 17 - Aug 16 upleg

S&P E-Minis stalled at Friday’s 4217.25 high. The impulsive sell-off reinforces bearish conditions and has resulted in a clear break of the 50-day EMA, at 4086.25. The breach of this pivot support strengthens the case for bears and signals scope for weakness towards 3983.25 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 4217.25. A break would ease the current bearish pressure.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Strong Gains

• RES 4: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $108.55 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 bear leg
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $105.48 - High Aug 29
• PRICE: $104.29 @ 06:17 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: $98.10 - Low Aug 26
• SUP 2: $96.53/91.22 - Low Aug 23 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures remain bullish and yesterday’s gains reinforce the current positive condition. Price remains above the 50-day EMA - the clear breach of this average strengthened the bullish condition. This has opened $106.50, the Jul 29 high. Clearance of this hurdle would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $91.22, Jul 14 low. Initial firm support has been defined at $98.10, the Aug 26 low.

WTI TECHS: (V2) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $108.07 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $105.00 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.75 - High Jul 29 and key resistance
• RES 1: $97.37 - High Aug 29
• PRICE: $96.95 @ 07:03 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: $91.08 - Low Aug 26
• SUP 2: $90.42/85.37 - Low Aug 23 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $84.10/00 - Low Mar 15 / Round number support
• SUP 4: $81.88 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures traded higher Monday, clearing last week’s high and resuming the recovery that started Aug 16. This strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation higher - the focus is on $99.75, the Jul 29 high. Clearance of this resistance would further strengthen a bullish theme. On the downside, key support has been defined at $85.37, the Aug 16 low. Initial firm support is at $91.08, the Aug 26 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Theme Resumes

• RES 4: $1829.8 - 38.2% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jul 21 bear leg
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $1773.5 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1765.5 - High Aug 25
• PRICE: $1734.5 @ 07:17 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: $1711.0 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 21 - Aug 10 upleg
• SUP 2: $1700.0 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $1681.0 - Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold remains in a clear short-term downtrend and Monday’s move lower has reinforced a bearish condition. Support at $1727.8, Aug 22 low has been breached to confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. The break lower paves the way for weakness towards $1711.0, a Fibonacci retracement and $1700.00 further out. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $1765.53, high Aug 25.

SILVER TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $20.876 - High Aug 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $19.497/990- 20- and 50-day EMA values
• PRICE: $18.739 @ 07:57 BST Aug 30
• SUP 1: $18.519 - Low Aug 29
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

The Silver outlook remains bearish - Monday’s weakness confirmed a resumption of the bear leg that started Aug 15. Scope is seen for an extension towards $18.146, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger where a break would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $19.497, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.