MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P-Minis Bearish Threat Still Present

Price Signal Summary - S&P-Minis Bearish Threat Still Present

• In the equity space, S&P E-Minis remain below resistance at 4099.00, May 9 high. The contract remains vulnerable following a fresh trend low on Friday. Attention is on 3801.97, 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont). 3807.50, Friday’s low is the bear trigger. A break of resistance at 4099.00 is required to signal a base. The primary trend direction in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is down. A corrective cycle is still in play though following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price last week probed the 50-day EMA, today at 3727.1. A clear break of this average would improve a short-term bullish theme. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 3466.00.
• In FX, EURUSD has cleared the 20-day EMA, and 1.0642, the May 5 high. The current bull cycle started at 1.0350, May 13 low and from the base of a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0848 and is a potential short-term objective. Initial support is at 1.0533, May 20 low. GBPUSD started the week on a firmer note, trading above last week’s high of 1.2525 and the 20-day EMA at 1.2500. This signals scope for a stronger recovery and opens 1.2638, the May 4 high and a key resistance. Today’s pullback is - for now - considered corrective. Initial firm support lies at 1.2438, May 20 low. USDJPY is trading closer to its recent lows. Recent weakness has exposed the next key support at 126.95, Apr 27 low. The current pullback is likely a correction. A break of 126.95 however would signal scope for an extension, towards the 50-day EMA at 125.86. A reversal higher and a move above 129.78, May 17 high would be bullish.
• On the commodity front, Gold started the week on a firmer note. The yellow metal has traded above resistance at $1859.0, the 20-day EMA. This opens the 50-day EMA at $1885.3. The move higher is still considered corrective and the trend direction remains down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on last week’s $1787.0 low (May 16). In the Oil space, WTI futures maintain a firm tone. The contract last week breached resistance at $110.07, Mar 24 high. A resumption of gains would open $116.43, the Mar 7 trend high. Initial support is at $103.24, the May 19 low.
• In the FI space, Bund futures resistance has been defined at $155.33 May 12 high. The trend direction remains down and an extension lower would open 150.49, the May 9 and the bear trigger. The broader trend condition in Gilts remains down. The contract has recently found resistance at 121.07, May 12 high. The bear trigger is at 116.87, May 9 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 1.0848 Bear channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 3: 1.0800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.0758 Low Apr 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.0742 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0705 @ 09:43 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 1.0533 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461/350 Low May 18 and19 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD is trading higher again today. The pair has cleared resistance at the 20-day EMA at 1.0570 and is through a key resistance at 1.0642, the May 5 high. This strengthens the current bull cycle that started at 1.0350, May 13 low. Note that the latest recovery also started from the base of a bear channel, drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel top intersects at 1.0848 and is a potential objective. Initial support is at 1.0533, May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2800 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2751 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2638 High May 4 and a key resistance
• PRICE: 1.2570 @ 06:14 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 1.2438 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.2317/2156 Low May 17 / Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend
• SUP 4: 1.2000 psychological round number

GBPUSD started the week on a firmer note, trading above last week’s high of 1.2525 and the 20-day EMA, at 1.2500 today. The clear break of this average signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery and opens 1.2638, the May 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 1.2156, the May 13 low. Initial firm support lies at 1.2317, the May 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bulls Return

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8585 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8576 @ 09:54 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP is rallying this morning and has cleared initial resistance at 0.8534, May 16 high. Today’s strong gains and break of resistance reinstates a short-term bullish theme and attention turns to resistance at 0.8619, the May 12 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of this hurdle would resume a 3.5 month uptrend. On the downside, initial support lies at yesterday’s intraday low of 0.8433.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• RES 3: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 2: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 129.78/131.35 High May 17 / High May 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 127.58 @ 06:30 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 127.03 Low May 19
• SUP 2: 126.95 Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 125.86 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 125.09 Low Apr 14

USDJPY is trading near its recent lows. 127.52, the May 12 low was breached last week and this exposes key short-term support at 126.95, Apr 27 low. The current pullback is likely a correction though and this is allowing a recent overbought trend reading to unwind. Clearance of 126.95 would signal scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, at 125.86. A reversal higher and a move above 129.78, May 17 high would be a bullish development.

EURJPY TECHS: Probes Resistance At 136.75

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 2: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 136.80 High May 23
• PRICE: 136.19 @ 06:39 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 133.75/132.66 Low May 16 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.66100-dma
• SUP 3: 132.20 50% retracement of the Mar 7 - Apr 21 bull phase
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

EURJPY traded higher Monday and probed resistance at 136.75, May 12 high, but has since pulled back. 132.66, May 12 low has been defined as the key S/T support. The recent recovery still threatens a previous bearish theme. An extension higher would open 138.32, the May 9 high and an important short-term resistance. On the downside, clearance of 132.66 would be a bearish development. This would open 132.20, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Maintains A Firmer Tone

• RES 4: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7178 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7135 High May 6
• PRICE: 0.7079 @ 06:45 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 0.7002 Low May 20
• SUP 2: 0.6950/29 Low May 18 / Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6784 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing

AUDUSD maintains a firmer short-term tone. The pair traded higher last week and again yesterday. Resistance at 0.7054, May 11 high, has been cleared. A continuation higher would strengthen the current bull cycle and open the 50-day EMA at 0.7178. Gains are still considered corrective and the primary direction remains down. The bear trigger is unchanged at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Initial firm support to watch is at 0.6950, the May 18 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.3155 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3091 High Nov 24 2020
• RES 2: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2896/2982 High May 18 / High May 16
• PRICE: 1.2810 @ 06:53 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 1.2763 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2714 Low May 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD remains below 1.3077, May 16 high, and continues to trade closer to its recent lows. The latest move down is considered corrective and the broader trend outlook is bullish. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.2914, May 2 high, and 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high. The break of the latter marks an important medium-term bullish development. Key support to watch is at 1.2714, the May 5 low. A break would alter the picture.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Consolidating

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 156.30 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 156.00 High Apr 28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 155.33 High May 12
• PRICE: 153.15 @ 05:02 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 151.89/150.49 Low May 18 / Low May 9
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Bund futures are consolidating and continue to trade below recent highs. The trend direction is unchanged though and remains down. Recent fresh cycle lows maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition. A continuation lower would refocus attention on 150.49, the bear trigger. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 156.00.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 129.770 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 2: 128.380 High May 12
• RES 1: 128.360 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.070 @ 05:16 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 126.610/126.010 Low May 18 / Low May 6 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures are unchanged and continue to consolidate. Price, on May 12, probed resistance at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high. A resumption of strength and a clear breach of 128.310 would leave the 50-day EMA at 128.360 exposed. A clear breach of the average would suggest scope for a stronger corrective cycle. The primary trend remains down, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 126.010.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 111.095 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - May 6 downleg
• RES 3: 111.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 1: 110.620/110.690 50-day EMA / High May 13
• PRICE: 110.230 @ 04:57 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 109.980 Low May 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

The primary trend direction in Schatz futures remains down and following the pullback from 110.690, May 13 high, the recent bullish corrective cycle appears to be over. A continuation lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 109.980, May 6 low. The 50-day EMA, at 110.620, remains intact and this indicator represents an important resistance. For bears, a breach of 109.980 would resume the downtrend.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 122.72 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 121.84 50.0% retracement of the Mar 1 - May 9 bear leg
• RES 1: 119.95/121.07 High May 19 / High May 12
• PRICE: 117.99 @ Close May 23
• SUP 1: 117.91 Low May 23
• SUP 2: 116.87 Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower Monday. The primary trend direction remains down and the pullback from recent highs just above the 50-day EMA is a bearish development. This suggests the correction between May 9 - 12 is over. A continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 116.87, May 9 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 121.07, May 12 high, where a break is required to reinstate a short-term bullish bullish theme.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Remains Above Key Support

• RES 4: 135.23 High Apr 14
• RES 3: 133.58 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.53 High Apr 28
• RES 1: 131.24 High May 12
• PRICE: 127.95 @ Close May 23
• SUP 1: 127.24/125.54 Low May 11 / Low May 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish. A corrective (bullish) cycle has recently been established though and the contract did on May 12, trade above a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 1 high. A resumption of strength would signal scope for a move towards 133.53, Apr 28 high. Key support has been defined at 125.54, the May 9 low and the bear trigger. A break of this support would resume the downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) The 50-EMA Marks Resistance

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3775.00 High May 5
• RES 1: 3727.10/3745.00 50-day EMA / High May 18
• PRICE: 3676.00 @ 05:35 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3400.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and a major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures are unchanged. The primary trend direction remains bearish but a corrective cycle is still in play, following the recovery from 3466.00, May 10 low. Price last week challenged the 50-day EMA, at 3727.10 currently, which has so far capped gains. A clear breach of the EMA would improve a short-term bullish theme and open 3775.00, the May 5 high. Key support and the bear trigger to watch is at 3466.00, May 10 low.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4099.00/4217.41 High May 9 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3922.75 @ 06:50 BST May 24
• SUP 1: 3807.50 Low May 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable. This follows the reversal from last Wednesday’s high of 4095.00. The pullback has left key resistance at 4099.00, May 9 high, intact. The reversal lower, and Friday’s fresh trend low, signals a resumption of the downtrend and opens 3801.97 next, 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont). Clearance of 4099.00 is required to ease the bearish threat and signal a potential short-term base.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: $123.44 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $115.69 - High May 17
• PRICE: $112.16@ 06:58 BST May 24
• SUP 1: $105.70/101.30 - Low May 13 / Low May 11
• SUP 2: $99.25 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

Brent futures remain below the May 17 high of $115.69. Short-term conditions remain bullish. The contract last week breached resistance at $114.00, May 5 high. This highlights potential for an extension higher short-term and opens $115.76, the Mar 24 high and a bull trigger. A break would open the $120.00 handle. On the downside, key support is unchanged at $101.30, the May 11 low. Initial support is seen at $105.70, May 19 low.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Eyeing Resistance

• RES 4: $120.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $116.43 - High Mar 7 and the trend high
• RES 2: $115.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 1: $113.20 - High May 17
• PRICE: $109.00 @ 0711 BST May 24
• SUP 1: $103.24 - Low May 19
• SUP 2: $101.33/96.93 - 50-day EMA / Low May 11 and key S/T level
• SUP 3: $94.47 - Low Apr 25
• SUP 4: $92.15 - Low Apr 11 and a key support

WTI futures continue to trade closer to recent highs. Price has recently breached resistance at $109.77, May 5 high and this improved the outlook for bulls. Note that $110.07, the Mar 24 high has also been cleared. A resumption would signal scope for a climb towards key resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 trend high. Key short-term support lies at $96.93, May 11 low, where a break would instead signal a potential top.

GOLD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1885.3 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1865.5 - High May 23
• PRICE: $1851.7 @ 07:14 BST May 24
• SUP 1: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 3: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 4: $1749.3 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Gold started the week on a firmer note and is trading closer to its recent highs. The yellow metal has traded above resistance at $1859.0, the 20-day EMA. This suggests potential for a strong short-term correction and has opened the 50-day EMA at $1885.3. The move higher is still considered corrective though and the trend direction remains down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on last week’s $1787.0 low (May 16).

SILVER TECHS: Resistance At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.212 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.252 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $21.807 @ 08:07 BST May 24
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish despite the bounce from $20.464, May 13 low. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at $22.008, the Feb 3 low and a bear trigger. The move lower reinforced the bearish theme and also resulted in a breach of $21.427/423, the Dec 15 2021 low and Sep 29 2021 low. Sights are on $20.000 next. Firm short-term resistance to watch is at $22.252 the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a stronger recovery.