MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - ST Bund Corrective Cycle Still in Play

Price Signal Summary – ST Corrective Cycle Still in Play for Bunds

• S&P E-Minis maintains a positive short-term tone but has continued to retrace lower this week. The contract did trade higher last Friday to confirm an extension of the current bullish cycle. Price traded above the 20-day EMA and a resumption of gains would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 4020.77. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to retrace recent gains. Price however remains above recent lows and a resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle.
• AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent lows and sights are on support at 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Trend signals remain bearish and an extension lower would signal scope for a test of the key support and bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low. EURUSD traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from recent highs. The move means that resistance at 1.0609 stays intact - a bear channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high. USDJPY delivered a fresh cycle high Wednesday, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The high marks the best levels since 1998. The climb also maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• Gold is marginally lower but remains in consolidation mode. The yellow metal appears vulnerable and support remains exposed. This follows the recent failure to hold above the 50-day EMA and highlights the potential end of the correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures found resistance at yesterday’s high of $114.05. This peak marks initial resistance and a break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery that would open $116.58, the Jun 17 high.
• Bund futures continue to trade below recent highs. From a short-term perspective, a bullish corrective cycle is potentially still in play. Gains last week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and a resumption of strength. Gilt futures have pulled back from last week’s high of 114.55 (Jun 24). Despite the retracement, a short-term bullish corrective cycle still appears to be in play and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 115.55, the Jun 6 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Channel Resistance Still Intact

• RES 4: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.0634/0774 50-day EMA / High Jun 9
• RES 2: 1.0609/15 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.0551 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0456 @ 05:52 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.0433/0359 Intraday low / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD traded lower Wednesday, extending the pullback from recent highs. The move means that resistance at 1.0609 stays intact - a bear channel top drawn from the Feb 10 high. While price trades below this channel top, S/T conditions remain bearish and the focus is on 1.0350, May 13 low and a bear trigger. MA studies also point south, highlighting bearish sentiment, A breach of 1.0618 would alter the picture and highlight a channel breakout.

GBPUSD TECHS: Attention Is On The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2518 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.2300/2406 20-day EMA / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2137 @ 06:09 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.2106/2042 Low Jun 29 and 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

The short-term outlook in GBPUSD is bearish; this week’s move lower reinforces this theme. Attention is on key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and a bear trigger. The primary trend direction is down and a break of 1.1934 would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This would open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8662 High Jun 29
• PRICE: 0.8614 @ 06:14 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 0.8579 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8523 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8486 Low Jun 9
• SUP 4: 0.8433 Low May 23

The EURGBP trend needle continues to point north and the cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. MA studies remain in a bull mode condition that clearly highlights an uptrend. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Attention is on 0.8721, the Jun 15 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the bull trend. Firm support is at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 0.8523.

USDJPY TECHS: Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 140.27 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 137.00 High Jun 29
• PRICE: 136.33 @ 06:27 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 135.11/134.27 Low Jun 29/ 23
• SUP 2: 132.17/131.50 Low Jun 17 /
• SUP 3: 131.50/49 Low Jun 16 / Bull channel base from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY delivered a fresh cycle high Wednesday, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. The high marks the best levels since 1998. The climb also maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 137.30, a Fibonacci projection. Markets will be on the lookout for overbought readings but with the RSI still sub-70, there’s little sign the pair is running out of momentum at current levels. Initial firm support is 134.27, the Jun 23 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Pulls Back From Tuesday’s High

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 144.28 High Jun 28 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 142.53 @ 06:34 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 141.49/40 20-day EMA / Low Jun 24
• SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: 139.11/137.85 50-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY traded higher Tuesday, delivering a fresh cycle high of 144.28. The cross has since found resistance and pulled back from Tuesday’s peak. Trend conditions are bullish however recent (failed) reversal patterns and the latest pullback, could be an early warning sign for bulls that the trend is mature. Support to watch is 141.40, the Jun 24 low and just above the 20-day EMA. A break would highlight a short-term top. The bull trigger is 144.28.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching Support

• RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 0.7075 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.6987/7069 20-day EMA / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.6885 @ 06:45 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 0.6851 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD is trading closer to its recent lows and sights are on support at 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Trend signals remain bearish and an extension lower would signal scope for a test of the key support and bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high, remains the key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Doji Candle Pattern Highlights Bullish Reversal

• RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 2: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2917/3017 High Jun 27/23
• PRICE: 1.2898 @ 06:58 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.2819/2805 Low Jun 28 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2732 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 17 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support

The USDCAD outlook is bullish and the recent corrective cycle appears to have stalled at Tuesday’s low of 1.2819. Looking at Japanese candle patterns, Tuesday is a doji pattern and this points to a possible short-term bullish reversal. A resumption of strength would refocus attention on resistance at 1.3079 the Jun 17 and a bull trigger. Firm support lies at 1.2805, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Remains Below Last Week’s Highs

• RES 4: 152.28 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.67 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.06 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 147.82/49.00 High Jun 27/24
• PRICE: 146.58 @ 04:54 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 144.72 Low Jun 28
• SUP 2: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)

Bund futures continue to trade below recent highs. From a short-term perspective, a bullish corrective cycle is potentially still in play. Gains last week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA and a resumption of strength would signal scope for a climb towards 150.06, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 142.56, Jun 17 low. The bear trigger is 140.67.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 125.112 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 3: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 2: 124.124 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 1: 123.942/960 20-day EMA / High Jun 24
• PRICE: 123.060 @ 05:01 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 121.910 Low Jun 28
• SUP 2: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)

Bobl futures remain below last week’s 123.960 high (Jun 24). Despite the latest pullback, a short-term bullish corrective phase remains in play. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 124.124, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is at 120.760, the Jun 17 low. A break of this level would expose the bear trigger at 119.940, Jun 16 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 109.405 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 109.334 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 2: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 1: 109.031 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• PRICE: 108.785 @ 05:13 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 108.290 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 108.025/107.705 Low Jun 21 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Despite the recent pullback from the Jun 24 high, Schatz futures maintain a bullish short-term tone. The climb last week above the 20-day EMA strengthened short-term conditions for bulls and continues to suggest scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. This has opened 109.031, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is at 108.025, Jun 21 low. A break would signal a bearish reversal and expose the bear trigger at 107.705.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Scope For Additional Short-Term Corrective Gains

• RES 4: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 115.02 High Jun 8
• RES 1: 113.54/114.55 20-day EMA / High Jun 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 112.90 @ Close Jun 30
• SUP 1: 111.72 Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 4: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures have pulled back from last week’s high of 114.55 (Jun 24). Despite the retracement, a short-term bullish corrective cycle still appears to be in play and a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards 115.55, the Jun 6 high. The broader trend remains down with key support and the bear trigger defined at 109.89, the Jun 16 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 125.11 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 124.48 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 2: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 122.80 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 122.12 @ Close Jun 29
• SUP 1: 119.81/118.60 Low Jun 28 / Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

BTP futures maintain a bullish short-term tone. The contract traded higher last week and breached the 20-day EMA. The break continues to suggest potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 123.88, the May 9 low plus a recent breakout level. Initial support to watch is at 118.60, the Jun 22 low. A break of this support would instead signal a short-term bearish reversal and the end of the current correction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Continues To Trade Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3625.30 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3584.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3482.00 @ 05:20 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to retrace recent gains. Price however remains above recent lows and a resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. This would open the 50-day EMA, at 3625.30. The primary trend direction remains down though. Moving average studies are in bear mode condition and this highlights bearish market sentiment. The bear trigger lies at 3384.00, Jun 16 low.

E-MINI S&P (U2): This Week’s Retracement Extends

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4020.77 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3950.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3792.50 @ 06:56 BST June 30
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintains a positive short-term tone but has continued to retrace lower this week. The contract did trade higher last Friday to confirm an extension of the current bullish cycle. Price traded above the 20-day EMA and a resumption of gains would open the 50-day EMA, currently at 4020.77. The primary trend direction is down though and a stronger move lower would instead refocus attention on the bear trigger at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Stalls At Yesterday’s High

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $121.25 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $120.41 - High Jun 29
• PRICE: $116.15 @ 07:00 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $111.26/107.03 - Low Jun 27/22
• SUP 2: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.14 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $98.32 - Low Apr 25

Brent futures traded higher again Wednesday but did find resistance at the session high and closed down on the day. A break of yesterday’s $120.41 high is required to resume the latest upleg and this would open $121.25, the Jun 17 high. Clearance of this level would expose the bull trigger at $125.19, Jun 14 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would highlight a resumption of bearish activity and expose the $107.03 key support, Jun 22 low.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Finds Resistance

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $114.05 - High Jun 29
• PRICE: $109.33 @ 07:54 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $105.60/101.53 - Low Jun 27/22
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures found resistance at yesterday’s high of $114.05. This peak marks initial resistance and a break is required to confirm a resumption of the recent recovery that would open $116.58, the Jun 17 high. For bears, a stronger reversal lower from current levels would signal the end of the recent climb and this would refocus attention on the key support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. A break would confirm a resumption of bearish activity.

GOLD TECHS: Support Still Appears Exposed

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 2: $1866.7 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1854.3 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1817.2 @ 07:20 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold is marginally lower but remains in consolidation mode. The yellow metal appears vulnerable and support remains exposed. This follows the recent failure to hold above the 50-day EMA and highlights the potential end of the correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline resistance to watch is at $1866.7.

SILVER TECHS: Still Appears Vulnerable

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
• RES 1: $22.119/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6 and key resistance
• PRICE: $20.809 @ 08:07 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish and the metal continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A bearish threat follows the recent pullback from $22.517, the Jun 6 high. This also means the 50-day EMA, $22.119, remains intact. A clear breach of these two resistance points is required to highlight a short-term reversal. On the downside, attention is on key support at $20.464, May 13 low.