MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Approach Pivot Point

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Approach Pivot Point

In the equity space, S&P E-minis started the week on a bearish note. Yesterday's key technical development was the break of the 50-day EMA. This EMA marks an important support and a decisive break suggests scope for a deeper pullback. EUROSTOXX 50 futures started the week on a soft. The contract yesterday cleared support at 4060.50, Aug 19 low strengthening a S/T bearish cycle and the recent reversal.

In FX, EURUSD maintains a bearish position and traded lower yesterday as the bear cycle extends. The pair last week cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. GBPUSD remains under pressure following Monday's bearish session. The pair traded below an important S/T support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low, signalling scope for an extension lower. The USD Index (DXY) gains have exposed the key resistance at 93.73, Aug 20 high and the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 25.

On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply lower on Sep 16. The move resulted in a break of support at $1774.5, Aug 19 low and a test of $1745.4, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook following last week's gains and despite yesterday's weakness that is for now, considered a correction.

In FI, Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows the recent move through 172.00. Gilt futures recovered yesterday however a bearish theme remains intact following last week's round of weakness. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact and this defines a downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Key Support Exposed

• RES 4: 1.1912 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1846 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 1.1792 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1733 @ 06:15 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 1.1693 Low Aug 23
• SUP 2: 1.1664 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.1621 1.00 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD maintains a bearish position and traded lower yesterday as the bear cycle extends. The pair last week cleared 1.1770, Sep 13 low and 1.1758, 61.8% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. Yesterday's weakness resulted in a breach of 1.1722, the 76.4 retracement. This opens key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low and an important bear trigger. A break would strengthen a M/T bearish case. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.1846, Sep 14 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching key Support

• RES 4: 1.3983/90 High Jul 30 / 61.8% of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 2: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and the intraday bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3785 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3674 @ 06:22 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 1.3631/02 Triangle base drawn from Jul 20 low / Low Aug 20
• SUP 2: 1.3572 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520 Low Jan 18
• SUP 4: 1.3462 50.0% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jun rally

GBPUSD remains under pressure following Monday's bearish session. The pair traded below an important S/T support at 1.3727, Sep 8 low, signalling scope for an extension lower. This has also resulted in a break of 1.3680, Aug 27 low and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards the important 1.3602/3572 support zone. Note that there is a triangle base at 1.3631 that also represents an important support. Resistance is at 1.3785.

EURGBP TECHS: Rally Exposes Key S/T Resistance

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8659 High Jul 21
• RES 2: 0.8614/18 High Sep 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 20 - Aug 10 sell-off
• RES 1: 0.8595 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 0.8581 @ 06:31 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 0.8554 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8502/01 76.4% of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 rally / Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8484 Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8467/50 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 10

EURGBP rallied sharply higher yesterday, placing a recent bearish outlook on hold. Key short-term resistance at 0.8614, Sep 7 high remains intact for now, a break though would represent an important short-term bullish development as signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.8501, Sep 16 low. A break of this support would expose 0.8484, Aug 16 low ahead of 0.8450, Aug 10 low and the bear trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 110.82 High Jul 7
• RES 3: 110.80 High Aug 11 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 110.45/46 High Sep 8 / High Aug 13
• RES 1: 110.16 High Sep 13 / 14
• PRICE: 109.56 @ 06:34 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 109.11 Low Aug 16 / Sep 15
• SUP 2: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 4: 108.47 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally

USDJPY remains in a range. The outlook is bearish however support at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low needs to give way though to reinforce this theme. A breach of this level would expose 108.72, Aug 4 low. Clearance of 108.72 would open 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement and below. For bulls, the level to break is unchanged at 110.80, Aug 11 high. Initial firm resistance is at 110.45/46.

EURJPY TECHS: Death Cross Formation

• RES 4: 130.84/131.09 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 130.75 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 130.20 High Sep 14 high
• RES 1: 129.67 High Sep 17
• PRICE: 128.54 @ 06:50 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 128.14 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 127.94 Low Aug 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY extended losses Monday, with the pace of the sell-off accelerating to put the cross within range of the bear trigger at 127.94, Aug 19 low. The formation of a death cross in the DMA space reinforces a bearish theme, and Monday's low also pierced the 1.0% 10-dma envelope. A break of 127.94 would open 127.88, a retracement. Further out, the risk of a move towards the 2021 lows of 125.09 has increased. Initial firm resistance is at 129.67.

AUDUSD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.7499/7503 50.0% of the May - Aug sell-off / High Jul 13
• RES 3: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 1: 0.7325 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7267 @ 06:53 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 0.7220 Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: 0.7194 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD remains bearish and yesterday extended the pullback from 0.7478, Sep 3 high. The 20-day EMA and a number of retracement levels were breached last week. The focus is on 0.7194, 76.4% of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. A break of this level would expose the key support at 0.7106. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 0.7325, the 20-day EMA ahead of 0.7410, the Sep 10 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2896 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2769 @ 06:59 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 1.2663 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2583 Low Sep 10
• SUP 3: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support

USDCAD maintains a firmer tone and strengthened yesterday. The pair continues to display a stronger bullish S/T condition following the recovery from 1.2494, Sep 3 low. Furthermore, MA conditions are in bull mode reinforcing this theme. Yesterday's gains resulted in a break ofl resistance at 1.2762, Sep 8 high. This opens the 1.2949 bull trigger, Aug 20 high. Initial support is at 1.2663, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) In A Downtrend

• RES 4: 172.76 High Sep 2 and 3
• RES 3: 172.48 High Sep 9
• RES 2: 172.12 High Sep 14 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 171.84 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 171.56 @ 05:13 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 170.81 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 170.52 3.00 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 3: 170.22 3.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 11 - 17 price swing
• SUP 4: 170.00 Round number support

Bund futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish theme follows the recent move through 172.00. The break lower last week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5 and paves the way for a deeper retracement. Attention is on 170.52 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 172.12, Sep 14 high. A break would ease the current bearish sentiment.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 136.030 High Aug 30 , 31
• RES 3: 135.870 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 135.660 High Sep 7 and 9 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 135.550 High Sep 14
• PRICE: 135.430 @ 05:22 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 135.200 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 135.136 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 135.077 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 135.030 2.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing

Bobl futures outlook remains bearish despite yesterday's gains. Last week's weakness once again confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, signalling scope for a continuation lower. The focus is on 135.136 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 135.550, Sep 14 high where a break is required to ease current bearish pressure. Short-term upticks are considered corrective.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 112.350 High Aug 24
• RES 3: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.290 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 112.280 @ 05:13 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 112.245/215 Low Sep 20 / Low Sep 9 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 112.206 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.200 Round number support
• SUP 4: 112.197 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures started the week on a firmer note however despite recent gains, the outlook remains bearish and gains are considered corrective. The recent move lower to 112.215, on Sep 9 confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Aug 5. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 112.206, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is seen at 112.305, Sep 3 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 128.77 High Sep 3
• RES 3: 128.42 High Sep 7
• RES 2: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 127.68 High Sep 16
• PRICE: 127.45 @ Close Sep 20
• SUP 1: 126.83 2.00 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 126.70 Low Jun 3 and a key support
• SUP 3: 126.57 2.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 126.41 2.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Gilt futures recovered yesterday however a bearish theme remains intact following last week's round of weakness. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs is intact and this defines a downtrend. The focus is on 126.83 next, a Fibonacci projection ahead of 126.70, Jun 3 low (cont) and a key support Key near-term resistance has been defined at 128.18, Sep 10 and 14 high. A break of this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Needle Points South

• RES 4: 155.71 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger (cont)
• RES 3: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 1: 154.63 High Sep 14 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 153.73 @ Close Sep 20
• SUP 1: 153.36 Low Sep 17
• SUP 2: 152.94/84 Low Sep 9 / 50.0% of Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 152.66 Low Jul 15 (cont)
• SUP 4: 152.16 61.8% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)

BTP futures remain below recent highs. Trend conditions remain bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. A bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme remains intact. The focus is on 152.84 next, a Fibonacci retracement and below. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open resistance at 155.14, Aug 31 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 152.94, Sep 7 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Strong Bear Reversal

• RES 4: 4223.00 High Sep and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 4213.77 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 4184.00 High Sep 17
• RES 1: 4102.50 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 4031.00 @ 05:49 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 3974.00 Low Sep20
• SUP 2: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 3: 3941.50 Low Jul 21
• SUP 4: 3882.00 Low Jul 19 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures started the week on a soft. The contract yesterday cleared support at 4060.50, Aug 19 low strengthening a S/T bearish cycle and the recent reversal. This follows Friday's move below 4104.50, Sep 9 low that confirmed a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for weakness towards 3962.00 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is seen at yesterday's high of 4102.50, Sep 20 high.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Remains Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4478.50 High Sep 16
• RES 1: 4418.00 High Sep 20
• PRICE: 4371.00@ 06:08 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: 4293.75 Low Sep 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis started the week on a bearish note. Yesterday's key technical development was the break of the 50-day EMA. This EMA marks an important support and a decisive break suggests scope for a deeper pullback. Furthermore, the breach of 4339.75, Aug 18 low reinforces a bearish threat. Continued weakness would open 4214.50, Jul 19 low. Resistance is 4418.00, Sep 20 high and just above the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Bullish Conditions Intact

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $78.13 - 0.764 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $76.74 - 0.618 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.13 - High Sep 15
• PRICE: $74.50 @ 06:59 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $72.86/70.88 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 9 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $69.77/$68.13 - Low Aug 26 / Low Aug 24
• SUP 3: $64.20 - Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: $63.54 - Low May 21 and a key support

Brent futures traded lower yesterday however at this stage, a pullback is considered corrective. The contract breached the Jul 6 high of $75.87 last week. This confirmed a resumption of the broader uptrend and strengthened a bullish case, following the recent bear channel breakout. The channel was drawn off the Jul 6 high. The focus is on $76.74 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at $70.88, Sep 9 low.

WTI TECHS: (V1) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: $76.43 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $75.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $74.77 - High Jul 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $73.14/52 - High Sep 15 / High Jul 30
• PRICE: $70.90 @ 70:90 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $69.78 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $67.56 - Low Sep 9 and key support
• SUP 3: $65.41 - Low Aug 24
• SUP 4: $61.74 - Low Aug 23 and the bear trigger

WTI futures maintain a bullish outlook following last week's gains and despite yesterday's weakness that is for now, considered a correction. Last week's gains resulted in a break of $71.30, the bear channel top drawn off the Jul 6 high. The move higher strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for further S/T gains. The focus is on $73.52 next, Jul 30 high ahead of the primary resistance at $74.77, Jul 7 high. Key support is at $67.56, Sep 9 low.

GOLD TECHS: Bears Still In Charge

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1781.8 - Low Sep 14
• PRICE: $1763.0 @ 07:21 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $1742.3 - Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: $1724.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold traded sharply lower on Sep 16. The move resulted in a break of support at $1774.5, Aug 19 low and a test of $1745.4, 61.8% retracement of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. The retracement remains exposed. Further out, a deeper decline would open the key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at $1808.7, Sep 14 high. A break of this level is required to ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $24.411 - High Sep 8
• RES 1: $23.623 - 20-Day EMA
• PRICE: $22.350 @ 07:24 BST Sep 21
• SUP 1: $22.039 - Low Sep 20
• SUP 2: $21.899 - Low Nov 30, 2020
• SUP 3: $21.677 - Low Sep 24
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver remains bearish following last week's sharp losses that resulted in a breach of support at $22.626, Aug 9 low. The metal traded lower again yesterday. A bearish theme was also recently reinforced following the failure to clear the 50-day EMA that continues to provide resistance. With $22.626 cleared, the focus is on $21.899 next, Nov 30, 2020 low. Key trend resistance has been defined at $24.867, Sep 3 high.