MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Extend Bearish Theme

Price Signal Summary - Stocks Extend Bearish Theme

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintains a bearish theme and has traded below key support 4293.75, Sep 20 low. The break lower strengthens a bearish case and confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Sep 3. EUROSTOXX 50 futures reversed sharply lower Tuesday removing a recent bullish theme and the contract maintains a bearish tone. Continued weakness has exposed key support at 3974.00, Sep 20 low.
• In FX, EURUSD remains bearish and traded lower Thursday, extending losses following this week's break of key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low, The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend that has been in place since May 25. GBPUSD maintains a bearish theme following this week's break lower and the breach of several key supports. The triangle base at 1.3637, drawn from the Jul 20 low has been cleared. The USDJPY uptrend remains intact following this week's climb and clean break of 111.66, Jul 2 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jan 6 and opens 112.23 next, Feb 20, 2020 high.
• On the commodity front, Gold bounced yesterday. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish following this week's move lower and extension of the bear phase that has been in place since Sep 3. WTI remains below Tuesday's high of $76.67. Dips are considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The recent break of resistance at $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend.
• In FI, Short-term gains in Bund futures are considered corrective and a bearish outlook remains intact. This follows recent weakness that marked an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures traded lower again yesterday. The current bear cycle remains intact and the outlook is bearish following recent weakness and tne breach of the 126.84 support, Sep 17 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Heavy

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1805/46 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.1755/79 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1664/1723 Low Aug 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1579 @ 06:09 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 1.1563 Low Sep 30 and Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1371 Low Jul 16

EURUSD remains bearish and traded lower Thursday, extending losses following this week's break of key support at 1.1664, Aug 20 low, The break lower confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend that has been in place since May 25 and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1493 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm resistance is at 1.1755, Sep 22 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Heavy!

• RES 4: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 3: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3674/3754 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3572/3602 Low Jul 20 / Low Aug 20
• PRICE: 1.3456 @ 06:20 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 1.3412 Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: 1.3354 Low Dec 23, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.3349 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3277 61.8% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jan bull phase

GBPUSD maintains a bearish theme following this week's break lower and the breach of a number of key supports. The triangle base at 1.3637, drawn from the Jul 20 low has been cleared. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode reinforcing current conditions and this signals scope for losses toward levels not seen since late December last year. 1.3354 marks the next target. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3572, Jul 20 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8721 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 0.8703 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 - Sep 16 rally
• RES 2: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8658 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.8605 @ 06:27 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 0.8565/26 50-day EMA / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 0.8501 Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8495/84/95 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Aug 16
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10

Despite yesterday's move lower, the EURGBP short-term outlook remains bullish. This follows the strong rally on Sep 28 that resulted in a breach of resistance at 0.8613/14, Sep 22 / Sep 7 high. Scope is seen for an extension towards resistance at 0.8670, Jul 20 high and the next important near-term resistance. On the downside, the Sep 28 low of 0.8526, while far off, is support. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: 112.73 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
• RES 2: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 1: 112.08 High Sep 30
• PRICE: 111.20 @ 06:34 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 110.80 High Aug 11
• SUP 2: 110.12/109.11 50-day EMA / Low Aug 16 and Sep 15
• SUP 3: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108.56 Low May 25

The USDJPY uptrend remains intact following this week's climb and clean break of 111.66, Jul 2 high. This confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jan 6 and opens 112.23 next, Feb 20, 2020 high. Near-term, the risk of a corrective pullback has increased though and this is highlighted by yesterday's bearish engulfing candle. Key S/T support is at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low. Initial firm support is seen at 110.12, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 131.76 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 130.75 High Sep 3 bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.74/130.48 50-day EMA / High Sep 29
• PRICE: 128.74 @ 06:43 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 128.31 Low Sep 23
• SUP 2: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 / Low Sep 22 the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY traded lower Thursday and the cross is softer again today. This price action works against the previous bullish outlook. A continuation lower would again expose the key support at 127.94/93, Aug 19 and Sep 22 low and an important bear trigger. A break would resume the downtrend. For bulls, key resistance is at 130.75, Sep 3 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to highlight a stronger bullish theme.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bear Trigger Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 2: 0.7335 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7279 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7209 @ 06:50 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 0.7170 Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7103 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

The AUDUSD outlook remains fragile following this week's move lower and despite Thursday's gains. 0.7194 has been cleared, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally and signals a resumption of the near-term downtrend. Attention is 0.7106, the Aug 20 low and bear trigger - a breach would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7335, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Holding Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2796/2896 High Sep 23 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2720 @ 06:53 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 1.2594/83 Low Sep 28 / Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2367 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD remains above recent lows - the pair has found support just below the 50-day EMA. A bullish trend structure remains intact and the recent pullback was considered corrective. A clear break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2621 today would signal scope for a deeper pullback and expose 1.2494, Sep 3 low. For bulls, an extension higher would again expose key resistance at 1.2949, Aug 20 high. This marks the bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.96 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.81 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 170.32 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 170.24 @ 05:20 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 169.46 1.50 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 2: 168.75 Low May 21 (cont)
• SUP 3: 168.29 Low May 19 (cont)
• SUP 4: 167.98 2.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing

Short-term gains in Bund futures are considered corrective and a bearish outlook remains intact. This follows recent weakness that marked an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 169.46 next, a Fibonacci projection and beyond. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 171.96, Sep 21 high. A break above this level is required to ease bearish pressure. Initial resistance is at 170.32.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 7 / 9
• RES 4: 135.540 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.200 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 2: 135.110 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 135.060 @ 05:23 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 134.770 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 134.736 3.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.660 Low Sep 7 and 8 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.548 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep rally

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone following last week's resumption of its downtrend and the follow through earlier this week. The move lower maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 134.736 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 135.540, Sep 21 high. Initial resistance is at 135.110.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Trend Needle still Points South

• RES 4: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.230/242 High Sep 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.220 @ 05:30 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 112.174 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.159 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 112.140 Low Jul 5 / 6 (cont)
• SUP 4: 112.130 3.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures remain weak despite finding support. The recent break of former support at 112.215, Sep 9 low confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Scope is seen for an extension towards 112.174 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.290, Sep 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14
• RES 3: 127.69 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 126.84 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 125.89/126.44 High Sep 29 / High Sep 27
• PRICE: 125.15 @ Close Sep 30
• SUP 1: 124.83 Low Sep 30
• SUP 2: 124.64 1.382 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.19 76.4% retracement of the Oct '18 - Mar '20 upleg
• SUP 4: 123.79 1.764 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower again yesterday. The current bear cycle remains intact and the outlook is bearish following recent weakness and tne breach of the 126.84 support, Sep 17 low. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this week's sell-off has opened 124.64 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 127.69, Sep 21 high. Initial resistance is seen at 125.89, the Sep 29 high.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Heading South

• RES 4: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 153.46 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 151.95 @ Close Sep 30
• SUP 1: 151.62 Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 151.32 76.4% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 150.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 150.56 Low Jun 30 (cont)

BTP futures are consolidating but trend conditions remain bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme is intact and the recent move below 152.94, Sep 9 low, reinforced this condition. The contract traded lower again earlier this week. The focus is on 151.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term resistance is at 154.64, Sep 23 / 24 high. A break of this hurdle is required to ease bearish pressure.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Approaching The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4110.80/4200.50 50-day EMA / High Sep 24
• PRICE: 3987.00 @ 06:00 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 3974.00 Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 3: 3951.50 1.00 proj of the Sep 6 - Sep 20 - Sep 24 price swing
• SUP 4: 3892.70 1.236 proj of the Sep 6 - Sep 20 - Sep 24 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures reversed sharply lower Tuesday removing a recent bullish theme and the contract maintains a bearish tone. Continued weakness has exposed key support at 3974.00, Sep 20 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish case and signal scope for weakness towards 3962.50 and below, a retracement level. The contract needs to get above recent highs of 4200.50, Sep 24 high to refocus attention on the Sep 6 key resistance of 4223.00. First resistance is at 4110.80.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Breaches Key Support

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4481.50 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: 4401.28/4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• PRICE: 4282.25 @ 07:01 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: 4268.75 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis maintains a bearish theme and has traded below key support 4293.75, Sep 20 low. The break lower strengthens a bearish case and confirms a resumption of the bear cycle that started Sep 3. Furthermore, the move lower today establishes a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs on the daily chart and this reinforces bearish conditions, opening 4214.50, Jul 19 low. The 50-day EMA at 4401.28 is resistance.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Z1) Trend Conditions Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $83.01 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $81.85 - High Oct 17, 2018 (cont)
• RES 2: $81.66 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $79.95/80.00 - High Sep 28 / Psychological round number
• PRICE: $78.45 @ 07:09 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: $75.42 - High Sep 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $74.81 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 3: $72.51 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.74 - 50-day EMA

Brent futures remain below Wednesday's high of $79.75 and this level marks initial resistance. A bullish outlook also remains intact and dips are considered corrective. The recent break of former resistance at 75.42, Sep 15 high confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move has exposed $80.00. A resumption of gain would open the $81.66, a Fibonacci projection. handle next. Initial firm support is seen at $75.42, Sep 15 high.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $79.53 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $78.24 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.67 - High Sep 28
• PRICE: $75.06 @ 07:12 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: $73.58 - High Jul 6 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $71.61 - Low Sep 21
• SUP 3: $69.39 - Low Sep 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $67.35 - Low Sep 9

WTI remains below Tuesday's high of $76.67. Dips are considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. The recent break of resistance at $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on $78.24 next, a Fibonacci projection with scope seen for a climb towards the psychological $80.00 level further out. On the downside, firm support is seen at $73.58.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Engulfing Candle

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1766.2/87.4 - 20-day EMA / High Sep 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1754.1 @ 07:30 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold bounced yesterday. From a trend perspective, the outlook is bearish following this week's move lower and extension of the bear phase that has been in place since Sep 3. A break of $1721.7, Sep 29 low would confirm a resumption of weakness and open key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. Note that yesterday's price pattern is a bullish engulfing candle. A rally would suggest scope for a stronger corrective bounce, perhaps towards $1787.4.

SILVER TECHS: Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $23.767 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.901/23.144 - 20-Day EMA / High Sep 22
• PRICE: $22.161 @ 07:53 BST Oct 1
• SUP 1: $21.423 - Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally
• SUP 3 :$20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.851 - Low Jul 21, 2020

Silver broke lower Wednesday and cleared former support at $22.039, Sep 20 low. This ends the recent consolidation, confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for an extension towards $20.871, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key near-term resistance is at $23.144, Sep 22 high.