MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Retain Positive S-T Tone

Price Signal Summary – Stocks Retain Positive Short-Term Tone

• S&P E-Minis maintain a positive short-term tone. The contract traded higher Friday to confirm an extension of the current bullish cycle. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, currently at 4037.17. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Friday and price continues to trade above recent lows. The primary trend direction remains down though, and short-term gains are considered corrective.
• EURUSD traded higher Monday and remains closer to its recent highs. Attention is on key resistance at 1.0627 - the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this clearly highlights positive sentiment. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on a retest of 0.8721, Jun 15 high and the bull trigger. AUDUSD is consolidating above support at 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Trend signals are bearish and a resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low.
• Gold is still in consolidation mode. The yellow metal remains vulnerable though and support appears exposed. Price has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the correction between May 16 - Jun 13. WTI futures continue to trade above last week’s lows. A bearish threat is present despite recent gains. This follows the recent sell-off that resulted in a move below the 50-day EMA and signals potential for weakness towards $100.66, the May 19 low.
• Bund futures maintain a positive short-term tone. Gains last week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens short-term bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger corrective recovery. Gilt futures rallied sharply higher last Thursday, and these gains continue to suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Resistance at 113.25, the Jun 15 high, was breached last week and price also traded through the 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Watching Channel Resistance

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 1.0627/0774 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.0576 @ 06:11 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.0445/0359 Low Jun 17 and 15
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0233 1.382 proj of Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 Price swing

EURUSD traded higher Monday and remains closer to its recent highs. Attention is on key resistance at 1.0627 - the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The primary trend direction remains down and the outlook is bearish. Moving average studies point south and a break lower would open 1.0350, May 13 low and the bear trigger. A clear break of 1.0627 however would alter the picture.

GBPUSD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 1.2507 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2495 76.4% retracement of the May 27 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 1: 1.2406 High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2272 @ 06:20 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.2161/2042 Low Jun 22 and 16
• SUP 2: 1.1934 Low Jun 14 and High Mar 20 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1795 0.764 proj of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1777 Low Mar 26 2020

GBPUSD is unchanged and remains in a tight range. The pair continues to trade above its key support at 1.1934, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger. Recent gains are likely corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 1.1934. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.1795, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.2406, Jun 16 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Outlook Is Bullish

• RES 4: 0.8852 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Mar ‘22 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8762 1.00 proj of the Apr 14 - May 12 - 17 price swing
• RES 2: 0.8721 High May 26 2021 and Jun 15 / bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8641 High Jun 23
• PRICE: 0.8619 @ 06:40 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.8569 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8515 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.8433 Low May 23
• SUP 4: 0.8393 Low May 17 and a key support

EURGBP trend conditions remain bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull mode set-up and this clearly highlights positive sentiment. The recent breach of resistance at 0.8619, May 12 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on a retest of 0.8721, Jun 15 high and the bull trigger. A break would resume the uptrend. Firm support is still at the 50-day EMA - it intersects at 0.8515 today.

USDJPY TECHS: Bullish Inside Its Channel

• RES 4: 139.07 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 3: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 136.71/88 High Jun 22 / High Oct 1998
• PRICE: 135.39 @ 06:47 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 134.27 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 133.61/131.50 20-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.09 Bull channel base drawn from the Mar 4 low
• SUP 4: 130.00 Round number support

USDJPY is unchanged and remains in an uptrend. Fresh cycle highs last week confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and this has opened 136.88 next, the Oct 1998 high. Price is also trading inside a bull channel - drawn from the Mar 4 low. The top at 139.87 is an objective further out. Key short-term support is unchanged at 131.50.

EURJPY TECHS: Reversal Threat

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
• RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• RES 1: 144.25 High Jun 8/23 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 143.21 @ 06:53 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 141.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
• SUP 3: 138.80/37.85 50-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
• SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30

EURJPY continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price action last week, between Jun 21-23, still represents a concern for bulls. A 3-day candle pattern - evening star reversal - was confirmed on June 23. This is a strong reversal pattern and warns of a deeper pullback near-term. The next support is 141.181, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 144.25, a break is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and this would remove a bearish threat.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
• RES 2: 0.7090 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7008/7069 20-day EMA / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 0.6927 @ 06:59 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 0.6869/51 Low Jun 23/14
• SUP 2: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD is consolidating above support at 0.6851, the Jun 14 low. Trend signals are bearish and a resumption of weakness would signal scope for a test of key support and the bear trigger at 0.6829, the May 12 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 0.6805, the Jun 22 2020 low. On the upside, 0.7069, Jun 16 high, remains a key short-term resistance.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
• RES 2: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2917/3017 High Jun 27/23
• PRICE: 1.2837 @ 08:00 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 1.2798 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2732 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 17 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support

The USDCAD outlook is bullish however price action remains weaker and is trading lower again today. The latest pullback is still considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in a break of 1.3000 and delivered a print above key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high and a bull trigger. A clear breach of 1.3077 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.3113, Nov 23 2020 high. The next firm support is seen at 1.2798, the 50-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Positive Short-Term Tone

• RES 4: 152.28 76.4% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 151.05 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 150.06 61.8% retracement of the May 12 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 149.00 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 146.54 @ 05:05 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 144.81 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 142.56/140.67 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 138.68 Low Jan 2 2014 (cont)

Bund futures maintain a positive short-term tone. Gains last week resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. The break of this average strengthens short-term bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger corrective recovery. A resumption of gains would open 150.06, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is 142.56, Jun 17 low. Note that short-term gains are still considered corrective, the bear trigger is 140.67.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 125.112 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 3: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 2: 124.124 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 1: 123.960 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 122.720 @ 05:13 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 121.820 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 120.760/119.940 Low Jun 17 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 119.590 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 119.050 Low Jul 29 2011 (cont)

Bobl futures traded higher last week confirming an extension of the current corrective cycle. Recent gains resulted in a move above the 20-day EMA and this has strengthened short-term bullish conditions. The focus is on a climb towards 124.124, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that short-term gains are still considered corrective. A strong reversal lower would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 119.940, the Jun 16 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Short-Term Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 109.405 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 109.334 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• RES 2: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 1: 109.031 61.8% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 16 sell-off
• PRICE: 108.670 @ 05:21 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 108.290 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 108.025/107.705 Low Jun 21 / Low Jun 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 107.662 3.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 107.589 3.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Schatz futures maintain a bullish short-term tone. The contract rallied last week and cleared the 20-day EMA. The move above this average has strengthened short-term bullish conditions and suggests scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. This has opened 109.031, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial support to watch is at 108.025, Jun 21 low. A break would signal a bearish reversal and expose the bear trigger at 107.705.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Scope For Short-Term Gains

• RES 4: 116.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 115.55 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 115.02 High Jun 8
• RES 1: 114.55 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 113.09 @ Close Jun 27
• SUP 1: 111.93 Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 110.57 Low Jun 21
• SUP 3: 109.89/60 Low Jun 16 / 4.50 proj of May 19 - 24 - 26 swing
• SUP 4: 109.33 Low Jul 8 2014 (cont)

Gilt futures rallied sharply higher last Thursday and these gains continue to suggest scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Resistance at 113.25, the Jun 15 high, was breached last week and price also traded through the 20-day EMA. This has opened 115.55, Jun 6 high. Gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A return lower would refocus attention on 109.89, the Jun 16 low and bear trigger.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bull Cycle Intact For Now

• RES 4: 125.11 High Jun 1
• RES 3: 124.48 76.4% retracement of the May 26 - Jun 14 downleg
• RES 2: 123.88 Low May 9 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 122.80/123.15 High Jun 24 and Jun 9
• PRICE: 120.72 @ Close Jun 27
• SUP 1: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 115.72/113.78 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 113.22 3.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.31 4.00 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

BTP futures traded higher last week and price cleared initial resistance at the 20-day EMA. The breach of this EMA suggests potential for a stronger short-term correction and attention is on 123.88, the May 9 low plus a recent breakout level. Initial support to watch is at 118.60, the Jun 22 low. A break of this support would signal a short-term bearish reversal and the end of the current correction.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 3774.00 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 3689.00 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 3634.40 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3584.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3521.00 @ 05:37 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: 3384.00 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3300.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 3241.70 1.382 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 3189.10 1.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 10 - Jun 6 price swing

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Friday and price continues to trade above recent lows. The primary trend direction remains down though and short-term gains are considered corrective. Moving average studies are in bear mode condition and this highlights a bearish trend set-up. First resistance is seen at 3584.00, Jun 16 high and firmer resistance is at 3634.40, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger is at 3384.00, Jun 16 low.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 3: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4037.17 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 3948.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 3905.25 @ 06:53 BST June 28
• SUP 1: 3735.00/3639.00 Low Jun 23 / 17 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 3500.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3384.75 0.764 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis maintain a positive short-term tone. The contract traded higher Friday to confirm an extension of the current bullish cycle. Price has traded above the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for an extension towards the 50-day EMA, currently at 4037.17. The primary trend direction remains down though and a reversal lower would signal the end of the correction. This would also refocus attention on the bear trigger at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Extends Latest Bounce

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.19 - High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $121.25 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $118.25 - 61.8% of the Jun 14 - 22 downleg
• PRICE: $116.37 @ 07:00 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $111.26/107.03 - Low Jun 27/22
• SUP 2: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.14 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $98.32 - Low Apr 25

Brent futures have traded higher again, extending gains from $107.03, the Jun 22 low. A short-term bearish threat remains present though following the recent move lower that resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A resumption of weakness would open $103.84 next, the May 19 low and a key support. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at $121.25, the Jun 17 high. A break of this hurdle would ease the bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (Q2) Remains Above Last Week’s Lows

• RES 4: $122.68- 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $120.88 - High Jun 14 and key resistance
• RES 2: $116.58 - High Jun 17
• RES 1: $113.49 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - 22 downleg
• PRICE: $111.14 @ 07:13 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $105.60/101.53 - Low Jun 27/22
• SUP 2: $99.36 - Low May 12
• SUP 3: $95.47 - Low May 11
• SUP 4: $93.45 - Low Apr 25

WTI futures continue to trade above last week’s lows. A bearish threat is present despite recent gains. This follows the recent sell-off that resulted in a move below the 50-day EMA and signals potential for weakness towards $100.66, the May 19 low. A breach of this support would open $95.47, the May 11 low. Initial firm resistance is seen at $116.58, the Jun 17 high. A breach would ease the bearish threat.

GOLD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1878.4 - High Jun 13
• RES 2: $1871.7 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1857.2 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1827.9 @ 07:15 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $1805.2 - Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: $1787.0 - Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Gold is still in consolidation mode. The yellow metal remains vulnerable though and support appears exposed. Price has recently failed to remain above the 50-day EMA and this highlights a bearish threat and signals the potential end of the correction between May 16 - Jun 13. An extension lower would open the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. A break would resume the downtrend. Key trendline to watch resistance is at $1871.7.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $23.278 - High May 5
• RES 1: $22.229/517 - 50-day EMA / High Jun 6 and key resistance
• PRICE: $21.329 @ 08:03 BST Jun 28
• SUP 1: $20.464 - Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

The Silver outlook remains bearish despite the recovery from last Friday’s low of $20.614. A bearish threat follows the recent pullback from $22.517, the Jun 6 high. This also means the 50-day EMA, $22.229, remains intact. A clear breach of these two resistance points is required to highlight a short-term reversal. On the downside, attention is on key support at $20.464, May 13 low.