MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Strong Rally Reinforces Bullish Setup in Gold

Price Signal Summary – Strong Rally Reinforces Bullish Setup in Gold

• A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract traded higher yesterday, before pulling back. The outlook remains bullish. A strong rally on Nov 14 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach and the subsequent rally, reinforces bullish conditions and opens 4597.50. A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher. The focus is on 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 4400.00 and 4446.00.
• The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and this week’s climb reinforces current conditions. The extension maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. USDJPY is trading at this week’s lows. Price has breached 147.15, Nov 21 low. This cancels a recent bullish pattern and highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on support at 146.67, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. The current uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact for now. This week’s rally has reinforced the bullish significance of the recent break of resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Price has also breached 0.6656, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s strong rally reinforces this set-up. The yellow metal has traded through resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. The clear break of this hurdle has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged and remains bearish. However, a corrective cycle is in play and the contract has traded higher this week. Resistance to watch is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high. A breach would strengthen a bullish theme and open $83.20, the Nov 3 high.
• Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone. The contract has traded above resistance at 131.74, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on 132.78. A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. Key short-term support is currently seen at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The latest recovery from this level is a positive development and the continuation higher has opened 98.05, the Nov 17 high and a bull trigger.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 1.1150 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 1.1081 76.4% retracement of the Jul 18 - Oct 3 downleg
• RES 2: 1.1065 High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.1017 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 1.0967 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 1.0852/0756 Low Nov 22 / High Nov 5, recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.0752 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0656 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The trend outlook in EURUSD remains bullish. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of resistance at the 1.1000 handle and fresh multi-month highs. The break higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The next objective is 1.1065, the Aug 10 high and a key resistance. The trend condition remains overbought, a corrective pullback would allow this set-up to unwind. Initial support to watch is 1.0852, the Nov 22 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2881 76.4% retracement of the Jul 14 - Oct 4 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2808 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.2800 High Aug 22
• RES 1: 1.2733 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 1.2702 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 1.2591/2469 Low Nov 27 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2395 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2266 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 and key short-term support

The trend direction in GBPUSD remains up and this week’s climb reinforces current conditions. The extension maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. The focus is on 1.2800, the Aug 22 high and 1.2808, a vol band resistance and. On the downside, initial firm support to watch at 1.2469, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Heading South

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 3: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8725/68 High Nov 22 / 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8696 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8640 @ 06:28 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 0.8630 50.0% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run
• SUP 2: 0.8616 Low Oct 11 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8598 61.8% retracement of the Aug 23 - Nov 20 bull run
• SUP 4: 0.8569 Low Sep 15

EURGBP maintains a softer tone and the cross traded lower again yesterday. Price is through support at 0.8650, the Nov 6 low and key support. The break strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for a move towards 0.8630, a Fibonacci retracement and 0.8616, the Oct 11 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8696, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this EMA would ease bearish pressure.

USDJPY TECHS: Watching Trendline Support

• RES 4: 152.20 3.00 proj of the Jul 14 - 21 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 150.78/51.95 High Nov 17 / High Oct 21 ‘22 - major resistance
• RES 2: 149.75 High Nov 22
• RES 1: 149.01 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 146.94 @ 06:46 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 146.67 Trendline support drawn from the Mar 24 low
• SUP 2: 145.91 Low Sep 11
• SUP 3: 144.45 Low Sep 1
• SUP 4: 142.85 61.8% of the Jul 14 - Nov 13 bull run

USDJPY is trading at this week’s lows. Price has breached 147.15, Nov 21 low. This cancels a recent bullish pattern and highlights a resumption of the bear cycle that started Nov 13. Attention is on support at 146.67, a trendline drawn from the Mar 24 low. A clear break would strengthen the bearish threat and open 145.91, Sep 11 low. Key short-term resistance is 149.75, the Nov 22 high. A move above this hurdle would be a bullish development.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 165.99 1.382 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 3: 164.77 1.236 proj of the Jul 28 - Aug 30 - Oct 3 price swing
• RES 2: 164.30 High Nov 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 163.72 High Nov 27
• PRICE: 161.32 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 161.14 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 160.34 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 159.07 Low Nov 1 / 2
• SUP 4: 157.70 Low Oct 30

The primary uptrend in EURJPY remains intact, however, a corrective cycle remains in play and the cross continues to trend lower. Price has pierced support at 161.25, the Nov 21 low. An extension would highlight potential for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at 160.34. On the upside, a clearance of 164.30, the Nov 16 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 164.77, a Fibonacci projection.

AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 0.6747 76.4% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Aug 1
• RES 2: 0.6697 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 0.6676 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 0.6632 @ 07:57 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 0.6516 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.6466 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4:0.6315 Low Oct 31

The current uptrend in AUDUSD remains intact for now. This week’s rally has reinforced the bullish significance of the recent break of resistance at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Price has also breached 0.6656, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 13 - Oct 26 bear leg. This signals scope for an extension towards 0.6697, the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. On the downside, firm support is seen at 0.6516, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 1.3953 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.3855/3899 High Nov 10 / 1 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3777 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 1.3687 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3579 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 1.3541 Low Nov 29
• SUP 2: 1.3496 50.0% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.3417 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 1.3401 61.8% retracement of the Jul 14 - Nov 1 bull phase

USDCAD is off lows, but maintains a softer tone more broadly. The recent break of trendline support, drawn from the Jul 14 low, reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for a continuation lower near-term. Sights are on 1.3496 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial key resistance remains at 1.3777, the Nov 16 high. A breach of this hurdle would be a bullish development.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z3) Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 134.29 High Jul 19
• RES 3: 134.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 133.45 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 132.97 1.618 proj of the Oct 4 - 12 - 23 price swing
• PRICE: 132.51 @ 05:25 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 131.74/130.74 High Nov 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 130.11 Low Nov 24 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 129.60 Low Nov 14
• SUP 4: 129.35 Low Nov 7 / 13 and key short-term support

Bund futures maintain a firmer short-term tone. The contract has traded above resistance at 131.74, the Nov 17 high, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. The break higher maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and sights are on 132.78, the Sep 1 high which has also been pierced. A clear break would open 133.45, the Jul 24 high. Key support has been defined at 130.11, the Nov 24 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z3) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 118.752 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 118.370 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 10 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: 118.000 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.770 Intraday high
• PRICE: 117.590 @ 05:30 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 117.230 High Nov 17
• SUP 2: 116.699 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 116.260 Low Nov 27 and key support
• SUP 4: 116.000 Low Nov 13

A bull cycle in Bobl futures remains in play and this week’s strong rally has reinforced this theme. The contract has cleared resistance at 117.230, the Nov 17 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started on Sep 28. The break higher paves the way for a move towards the 118.00 handle. On the downside, key support has been defined at 116.260, the Nov 27 low. A break would highlight a reversal.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z3) Clears Resistance

• RES 4: 105.580 High Aug 24 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 105.560 High Sep 1
• RES 2: 105.440 High Sep 4
• RES 1: 105.415 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 105.370 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 105.250/105.109 Low Nov 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 104.915 Low Nov 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 104.880/765 Low Oct 20 / Sep 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 104.720 2.00 proj of the Aug 24 - 30 - Sep 1 price swing

Schatz futures reversed course Monday and the cross has continued to appreciate. The continuation higher has resulted in a break of resistance at 105.335, the Nov 2 high and a bull trigger. The break strengthens a bullish theme and confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Sep 21. This signals scope for a climb towards 105.440, the Sep 4 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 105.109, the 50-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (H4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 99.12 138.2% retracement of the Nov 17 - 24 bear leg
• RES 3: 98.71 123.6% retracement of the Nov 17 - 24 bear leg
• RES 2: 98.05 High Nov 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 97.93 High Nov 22 / 29
• PRICE: 97.57 @ Close Nov 29
• SUP 1: 96.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 95.25 Low Nov 24
• SUP 3: 95.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 94.74 2.618 proj of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. Key short-term support is currently seen at 95.25, the Nov 24 low. The latest recovery from this level is a positive development and the continuation higher has opened 98.05, the Nov 17 high and a bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 95.25 would instead strengthen a bearish threat and expose 94.74, the 2.618 projection of the Nov 17 - 20 - 22 price swing. Initial support lies at 96.07, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Trend Sequence

• RES 4: 117.60 High Jun 26 (cont)and a key resistance
• RES 3: 117.48 High Jul 19 (cont)
• RES 2: 116.76 High Jul 27 (cont)
• RES 1: 116.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 115.58 @ Close Nov 29
• SUP 1: 113.28/112.35 Low Nov 24 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110.81 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 109.64 Low Nov 1
• SUP 4: 108.01/107.42 Low Oct 26 / 19

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains in play and this week’s rally has reinforced the bullish condition. Yesterday’s break of resistance at 114.89, the Nov 17 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Oct 19. Potential is for a climb towards 116.00 next. Further out, scope is seen for a climb towards 116.76, the Jul 27 high (cont). On the downside, short-term trend support has been defined at 113.28, the Nov 24 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z3) Bullish Trend Structure

• RES 4: 4500.00 High 1
• RES 3: 4446.00 High Aug 10
• RES 2: 4407.40 76.4% retracement of the Jul 31 - Oct 27 bear leg
• RES 1: 4391.00 High Nov 29
• PRICE: 4390.00 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 4298.50 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4215.40 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4185.00 Low Nov 9 and 10
• SUP 4: 4143.00 Low Nov 8

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a rising cycle and the potential for a continuation higher. The focus is on 4388.00, the Aug 30 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 4400.00 and 4446.00, the Aug 10 high. Initial firm support to watch is at 4298.50, the 20-day EMA. Note that the trend condition is overbought, a move lower would allow this overbought reading to unwind.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (Z3) Bull Theme Remains In Play

• RES 4: 4700.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4685.25 High Jul 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 4644.75 High Aug 2
• RES 1: 4597.50 High Sep and a key resistance
• PRICE: 4567.00 @ 07:20 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: 4501.75/4481.71 Low Nov 16 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4430.43 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4354.25 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 4257.75 Low Nov 3

A bullish theme in S&P e-minis remains intact and the contract traded higher yesterday, before pulling back. The outlook remains bullish. A strong rally on Nov 14 resulted in the break of a trendline drawn from the Jul 27 high. This breach and the subsequent rally, reinforces bullish conditions and opens 4597.50, the Sep 1 high. MA studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. Initial firm support is seen at 4481.71, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G4) Corrective Cycle Remains In Plays

• RES 4: $91.04 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $88.55 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $87.12 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $83.62 - High Nov 14 and key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $83.16 @ 06:57 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: $76.71 - Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: $75.07 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 15 bull run
• SUP 3: $73.50 - Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: $71.45 - Low Jun 23

Brent futures have traded higher this week, however, recent gains are considered corrective. Attention is on the key short-term resistance at $83.97, the Nov 14 high. A break of this hurdle would be seen as a bullish short-term development and signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term. This would open $87.12, the Nov 3 high. On the downside, a resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the bear trigger at $76.71, the Nov 16 low.

WTI TECHS: (F4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: $88.37 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $85.00 - High Oct 27
• RES 2: $83.20 - High Nov 3
• RES 1: $79.65 - High Nov 14 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $78.10 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: $72.37 - Low Nov 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $70.96 - 76.4% retracement of the May 4 - Sep 28 bull run
• SUP 3: $69.09 - Low Jul 3
• SUP 4: $67.28 - Jun 23

The trend outlook in WTI futures is unchanged and remains bearish. However, a corrective cycle is in play and the contract has traded higher this week. Resistance to watch is at $79.65, the Nov 14 high. A breach would strengthen a bullish theme and open $83.20, the Nov 3 high. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at $72.37, the Nov 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.

GOLD TECHS: Impulsive Bull Wave

• RES 4: $2100.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 2022 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2063.0 - High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $2052.0 - High Nov 29
• PRICE: $2044.3 @ 07:10 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: $2009.4 - High Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $1989.5/1961.5 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1931.7 - Low Nov 13 and key support
• SUP 4: $1908.3 - Low Oct 16

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s strong rally reinforces this set-up. The yellow metal has traded through resistance at $2009.4, the Nov 7 high. The clear break of this hurdle has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and signals scope for an extension towards 2063.0, the May 4 high and a key resistance. Note the all-time high at $2070.4 (Mar 8 ‘22). Initial firm support is at $1989.5, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $26.397 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 3 - 20 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022
• RES 2: $26.135 - High May 5
• RES 1: $25.267 - High Jul 20 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $25.081 @ 08:07 GMT Nov 30
• SUP 1: $23.715/23.275 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: $21.883 - Low Nov 13 and a key support
• SUP 3: $20.689 - Low Oct 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

Silver bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the metal has traded higher this week. The break higher maintains the current positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies have crossed and are currently in a bull-mode position. This reinforces current bullish conditions. The focus is on $25.267, the Jul 20 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support lies at $23.276, the 50-day EMA.