MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Trend Conditions for Gold Remain Bullish

Price Signal Summary – Trend Conditions for Gold Remain Bullish

• S&P E-Minis remain below last week’s high and the contract is trading closer to this week's lows. The move down is considered corrective - for now. The uptrend that started on Oct 13 remains intact but attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 3917.08. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and the recent move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent high prints mark an extension of the uptrend that started in early October and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
• EURUSD continues to recover from Wednesday low. Attention is on Monday’s high print of 1.0595. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0615, the Jun 27 high. EURGBP traded slightly higher Thursday and printed a new weekly high at 0.8646. Nearby resistance remains unchallenged, keeping the bearish threat present for now. Attention is on the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 that was pierced on Dec 1. EURJPY is consolidating at this week’s highs. Attention is on key short-term trendline resistance that intersects at 144.61. The trendline is drawn from the Oct 21 high and a clear break of it is required to signal a stronger reversal.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and Monday’s retracement appears to be a correction. A fresh trend high last week reinforced a bullish theme and price breached $1786.5, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish and this week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. $74.96, the Sep 28 low, has been cleared. This break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and sights are on the $70.00 psychological handle.
• The Bund futures trend direction is unchanged and the contract remains in an uptrend. The cross traded higher Wednesday. Resistance at 141.94, the Nov 24 high, has recently been breached and moving average studies appear to be crossing, to highlight a bull mode condition. Gilt futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. Trend conditions are bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies highlight a bull mode set-up.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.0774 High Jun 9
• RES 3: 1.0736 2.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0668 2.236 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 1: 1.0595/0615 High Dec 5 and bull trigger / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.0580 @ 05:46 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.0443/0394 Low Dec 7 / 1
• SUP 2: 1.0352/0291 20-day EMA / Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 1.0223 Low Nov 21
• SUP 4: 1.0201 50-day EMA

EURUSD continues to recover from Wednesday low. Attention is on Monday’s high print of 1.0595. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 1.0615, the Jun 27 high. Note that while price remains below 1.0595, a bear candle on Monday - shooting star - continues to highlight a possible short-term bearish threat. A reversal lower would suggest potential for weakness towards 1.0371, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2667 High May 27
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2506 1.382 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - Oct 12 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2345/2406 High Dec 5 / High Jun 16
• PRICE: 1.2258 @ 06:01 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.2054 Low Dec 1
• SUP 2: 1.2002 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1901 Low Nov 30 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.1759 50-day EMA

Trend conditions in GBPUSD remain bullish and the latest pullback is likely a correction. Recent fresh trend highs reinforce the uptrend. The pair has also traded through the 200-dma and price maintains a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving averages studies remain in a bull-mode position. A resumption of gains would open 1.2406, the Jun 16 high. Key short-term support is seen at 1.1901, the Nov 30 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 3: 0.8829 High Nov 09 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8778 High Nov 16
• RES 1: 0.8663 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8622 @ 06:27 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 0.8547 Low Dec 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 3: 0.8471 Low Aug 28
• SUP 4: 0.8449 1.236 proj of the Oct 12 - 31 - Nov 9 price swing

EURGBP traded slightly higher Thursday and printed a new weekly high at 0.8646. Nearby resistance remains unchallenged, keeping the bearish threat present for now. Attention is on the Oct 31 low of 0.8560 that was pierced on Dec 1. A clear break would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.8522, Aug 30 low. MA studies have crossed, highlighting a bear mode set-up. A clear break of 0.8560 would reinforce this signal. Key resistance is 0.8829.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Above Recent Lows

• RES 4: 141.16 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 138.92 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 138.12 High Dec 1
• PRICE: 136.05 @ 06:36 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 133.63 Low Dec 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.56 Low Aug 15
• SUP 3: 131.08 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 15 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.41 Low Aug 2

USDJPY has pulled back from Wednesday’s high, however, the pair remains in a bullish corrective cycle - for now - following the recovery from 133.63, the Dec 2 low. This phase is allowing an oversold condition to unwind. An extension higher would open 138.92, the 20-day EMA. This average is seen as the first key short-term resistance. On the downside, the bear trigger is unchanged at 133.63,. A break would resume the downtrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Watching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 146.14 High Nov 23 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 145.23 High Nov 24
• RES 2: 144.61 Trendline drawn from the Oct 21 high
• RES 1: 144.58 High Dec 8
• PRICE: 143.88 @ 06:42 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 143.10/140.77 Low Dec 6 / 2 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.44 Low Sep 29
• SUP 4: 138.06 Low Sep 28

EURJPY is consolidating at this week’s highs. Attention is on key short-term trendline resistance that intersects at 144.61. The trendline is drawn from the Oct 21 high and a clear break of it is required to signal a stronger reversal. This would open 145.23, the Nov 24 high. On the downside, key support has been defined at 140.77, the Dec 2 low. A breach of this level would resume bearish activity.

AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
• RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6851 High Dec 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6782 @ 07:02 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 0.6669 Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 0.6629/6585 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. Price remains above key support at 0.6629, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6851, the Dec 5 high is the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 0.6909, a Fibonacci retracement.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Above Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
• RES 1: 1.3700 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 1.3597 @ 07:59 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 1.3515/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14

USDCAD reverted lower Thursday but the move appears corrective and a bullish outlook remains intact. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn from the Oct-13 high. The trendline intersects at 1.3515. Attention is on 1.3751 next, the Nov 4 high and 1.3808, the Nov 3 high. The latter is a key resistance and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, firm support is seen at 1.3385, Monday’s low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (H3) Uptrend Still Intact

• RES 4: 144.46 1.50 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 143.68 1.382 proj of the Oct 21 - 28 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 143.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 142.91 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 141.84 @ 05:10 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 140.58 Low Dec 6
• SUP 2: 139.62 Low Nov 29
• SUP 3: 136.13 Low Nov 28 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 138.34 Low Nov 18

The Bund futures trend direction is unchanged and the contract remains in an uptrend. The cross traded higher Wednesday. Resistance at 141.94, the Nov 24 high, has recently been breached and moving average studies appear to be crossing, to highlight a bull mode condition. This signals a stronger reversal. Potential is seen for a climb to 143.00 next. Initial firm support has been defined at 140.58, the Dec 6 low.

BOBL TECHS: (H3) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 120.765 1.50 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 120.568 1.382 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 120.324 1.236 proj of the Nov 10 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 120.150 High Dec 6
• PRICE: 119.550 @ 05:16 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 119.030 Low Dec 6
• SUP 2: 118.690 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 118.260 Low Nov 28 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 118.170 Low Nov 16

The Bobl futures trend condition remains bullish despite yesterday’s pullback. The contract recently breached resistance at 118.870, the Nov 10 high. Moving average studies appear to be crossing to highlight a bull mode condition. If correct, this signals a stronger reversal. The print above 120.130 on Wednesday, Dec 2 high, signals a continuation of the uptrend and opens 120.324, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 119.030.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H3) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 107.023 1.764 proj of the Nov 1 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 106.920 1.50 proj of the Nov 1 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 106.875 High Dec 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 106.655 @ 05:26 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 106.460 Low Dec 6
• SUP 2: 106.430 Low Nov 30
• SUP 3: 106.335 Low Nov 28 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 106.310 Low Nov 11

Schatz futures remain above support at the Nov 28 low of 106.335. The short-term outlook is bullish and attention is on 106.875, the Dec 2 high and a bull trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the 107.00 handle. On the downside, key short-term support is at the 106.335 level. Clearance of this chart point would suggest scope for a deeper pullback.

GILT TECHS: (H3) Still Looking For A Break Higher

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 107.06 High Nov 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.95 High Dec 2
• PRICE: 106.38 @ Close Dec 8
• SUP 1: 104.79 Low Nov 30
• SUP 2: 103.54 Low Nov 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 3: 103.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 102.77 Low Nov 10 (cont)

Gilt futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. Trend conditions are bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and moving average studies highlight a bull mode set-up. The focus is on a climb to 109.47, the Aug 31 low on the continuation chart. Key short-term support lies at 103.54, the Nov 21 low. Short-term pullbacks would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (H3) Bull Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 121.35 1.382 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 3: 120.09 1.236 proj of the Oct 21 - 27 - Nov 8 price swing
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.96 High Dec 7
• PRICE: 117.73 @ Close Dec 8
• SUP 1: 116.51 Low Dec 5
• SUP 2: 115.01 Low Nov 28 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 114.49 Low Nov 17
• SUP 4: 113.77 Low Nov 15

BTP futures trend signals remain bullish and Thursday’s pullback is considered corrective. The contract has traded higher this week and breached 118.12, the Dec 2 high. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions and maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on a climb towards the 120.00 handle. On the downside, key support short-term has been defined at 115.01, the Nov 28 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4250.00 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 4230.50 High Feb 10 (cont)
• RES 2: 4132.60 76.4/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 4021.00/49.50 High Dec 1 / High Feb 23 (cont)
• PRICE: 3939.00 @ 05:39 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 3896.50/3840.00 20-day EMA / Low Nov 17
• SUP 2: 3810.00 High Aug 17
• SUP 3: 3757.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3697.00 Low Nov 10

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and the recent move lower is considered corrective - for now. Recent high prints mark an extension of the uptrend that started in early October and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The recent break of 3810.00, Aug 17 high, also strengthens the case for bulls. The focus is on 4049.50, Feb 23 high (cont). First support to watch is 3896.50, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Key Support Lies At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4234.25 High Aug 26
• RES 3: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4110.00 High Dec 1
• PRICE: 3977.50 @ 06:59 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: 3918.99/3914.00 50-day EMA / Low Dec 7
• SUP 2: 3912.50 Low Nov 17
• SUP 3: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support

S&P E-Minis remain below last week’s high and the contract is trading closer to this week's lows. The move down is considered corrective - for now. The uptrend that started on Oct 13 remains intact but attention is on support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 3917.08. A clear break of this EMA would threaten bullish conditions and suggest potential for a deeper reversal. The bull trigger, to resume recent bullish activity, is at 4110.00.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (G3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $91.63 - High Nov 17
• RES 3: $87.66/89.37 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 1
• RES 2: $84.72 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $80.81 Low Nov 28
• PRICE: $76.56 @ 07:05 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: $75.74 - Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: $72.33 - 1.00 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing
• SUP 3: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $68.31 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 7 - 28 - Dec 1 price swing

The trend condition in Brent futures is bearish and this week’s strong sell-off reinforces this condition. Price has cleared key support at $79.68, the Sep 26 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. Moving averages are in a bear mode position, highlighting bearish sentiment. The focus is on $72.33 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at $80.81, the Nov 28 low.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Bear Trend Extends

• RES 4: $89.20 - High Nov 11
• RES 3: $86.90 - High Nov 16
• RES 2: $82.17 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $78.99 - 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $72.02 @ 07:12 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: $71.12 - Low Dec 8
• SUP 2: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 3: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $66.06 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

Trend conditions in WTI futures remain bearish and this week’s move lower has reinforced this theme. $74.96, the Sep 28 low, has been cleared. This break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and sights are on the $70.00 psychological handle. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting the current trend direction. Key resistance is at $82.17, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1842.7 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 1: $1807.9/10.0 - High Aug 10 and key resistance / High Dec 5
• PRICE: $1795.3 @ 07:18 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: $1758.0 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1729.0 - Low Nov 23 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: $1664.8 - Low Sep 8

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and Monday’s retracement appears to be a correction. A fresh trend high last week reinforced a bullish theme and price breached $1786.5, the Nov 15 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. $1800.0 has also been cleared and sights are on resistance at $1807.9, the Aug 10 high that has been pierced. A clear break would be bullish. Key trend support is at $1729.0, the Nov 23 low.

SILVER TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 3: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 1: $23.517 - High Dec 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $23.083 @ 08:02 GMT Dec 9
• SUP 1: $21.811 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $20.907/20.585 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21 and key support
• SUP 3: $19.416 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 4: $18.835 - Low Nov 3

The trend outlook in Silver remains bullish and the metal has recently cleared resistance at $22.251, the Nov 15 high. This week’s pullback appears to be a correction. A resumption of gains would reinforce bullish conditions and signal an extension of the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A break to fresh highs would open $23.567, the Apr 29 high. Initial firm support lies at $21.811, the 20-day EMA.