MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Bulls Remain in Charge

Price Signal Summary - USD Bulls In Charge and Yields Climb

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis are holding onto recent gains and remain bullish. Initial resistance to watch is 3978.50, Mar 18 high. A break would resume the uptrend and expose 4000. Key short-term support is at 3843.25. EUROSTOXX 50 has traded to a fresh trend high this week. This reinforces the underlying bullish theme and opens 3926.56, 1.764 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low.
• In the FX space, EURUSD maintains a weaker tone and has hit new cycle lows this morning at 1.1704. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish and recent gains are considered corrective. The pair last week cleared a bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low. The focus is on 1.3641, 38.2% of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle. Resistance, at the former channel base, is 1.3864. USDJPY remains bullish and has easily cleared 110.00. Wednesday saw prices top 110.63 Fibonacci projection, 0.764 of the Mar - Apr 2020 rally from the Jan 6 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold is heavy and has cleared near-term supports. This has exposed $1676.9, Mar 8 low and the bear trigger. Brent (K1) has probed resistance at $65.12, Mar 22 high. An extension higher would signal scope for a move towards $68.15, Mar 18 high. WTI (K1) has also probed resistance at $62.04, Mar 22 high. This signals scope for a climb towards $64.88, Mar 18 high

In the FI space, futures are soft and yields are climbing. Bunds (M1) traded sharply lower Tuesday. Key support to watch is at 170.52, Mar 18 low. Gilts (M1) are trading lower too. The key support and bear trigger is at 126.79, Mar 18 low. Treasuries have traded to fresh trend lows. The focus is on 130-07, Feb 2, 2020 low and the psychological 130-00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Pressure Persists

• RES 4: 1.1967 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1947 High Mar 22
• RES 2: 1.1805/53 High Mar 26 / High Mar 24
• RES 1: 1.1774 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 1.1705 @ 05:53 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.1695 38.2% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Jan rally
• SUP 2: 1.1647 1.50 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1603 Low Nov 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1543 1.764 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing

EURUSD remained under pressure Tuesday and has edged lower again today. This week's move lower has resulted in a break of support at 1.1752, 1.236 of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing. The move lower reinforces current bearish conditions and paves the way for an extension lower towards 1.1694, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.1805, the Mar 26 high.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below The Former Bull Channel

• RES 4: 1.3959 High Mar 19
• RES 3: 1.3877 High Mar 22
• RES 2: 1.3873 Former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low
• RES 1: 1.3783 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 1.3725 @ 05:56 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.3670/63 Low Mar 25 / Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3567 Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 1.3520 Low Jan 18

GBPUSD traded lower Tuesday and maintains a bearish tone. Last week, the pair cleared its bull channel base from the Nov 2, 2020 low. Furthermore, price also traded through the 50-day EMA and a former key support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low, triggering an important short-term reversal. The focus is on 1.3663 next, Feb 5 low. On the upside, the former channel base at 1.3873 provides an initial firm resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Theme Intact

• RES 4: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8668 High Mar 3
• RES 2: 0.8646 High Mar 24 and the S/T reversal trigger
• RES 1: 0.8593 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8530 @ 06:05 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 0.8506 Low Mar 29
• SUP 2: 0.8494 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26

EURGBP remains bearish having traded lower Monday and through 0.8533, Mar 18 low and a bear bear trigger, to print new multi-year lows. The move reinforces a bearish theme and exposes the 38.2% retracement of the 2015 - 2020 rally at 0.8521 which price probed Monday. An extension lower would open 0.8494, a volatility based support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8646, Mar 24 high where a break is needed to signal a short-term reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Still Heading North

• RES 4: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 3: 111.71 High Mar 24
• RES 2: 111.30 High Mar 26, 2020
• RES 1: 110.97 Intraday high
• PRICE: 110.85 @ 06:40 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 109.75 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 109.13 Low Mar 26
• SUP 3: 108.46/41 20-day EMA / Low Mar 23 and key support
• SUP 4: 107.82 Low Mar 5

USDJPY continues to push higher with the bull trend firmly intact. The move last week above 109.36, Mar 15 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and note, 109.56 has been breached, a key retracement - 76.4% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg. Tuesday's move above 110.00 opens 111.30, Mar 26, 2020 high. Overbought conditions are still not impacting this trend and instead continues to reinforce current sentiment. 108.41 is key support.

EURJPY TECHS: Moving Away From Key Support

• RES 4: 132.36 1.382 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 2: 130.67 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 129.94 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 129.81 @ 06:46 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 129.13 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 128.31/30 Trendline drawn off Oct 30, 2020 low / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 127.31 Low Feb 17

EURJPY remains above 128.29, Mar 24 low. The recent recovery from this level leaves the 50-day EMA at 128.30, and trendline support at 128.31 intact. The trendline is drawn off the Oct 30, 2020 low. A break of this support zone is required to suggest scope for a deeper S/T sell-off and this would signal a reversal of the current uptrend. For bulls, firm resistance is at 129.94, Mar 22 high. A break would open key resistance at 130.67, Mar 18 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: 0.7757 High Mar 22
• RES 3: 0.7754 Trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high
• RES 2: 0.7699 Low Mar 17
• RES 1: 0.7664 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 0.7599 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 0.7564/63 Low Feb 2 / Mar 25 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.7517 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
• SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone following last week's sell-off. The move lower resulted in a break of support 0.7621, Mar 9 low and a bear trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the bearish cycle that started at 0.8007, Feb 25 high and paves the way for weakness below 0.7564, Feb 2 low. On the upside, key resistance has been established at 0.7849, Mar 18 high. Initial resistance is seen at 0.7664, Mar 30 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Tests The 50-day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2763 High Feb 12
• RES 3: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 1: 1.2640/47 50-day EMA / High May 30
• PRICE: 1.2619 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 1.2516 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

The recent USDCAD recovery remains intact and the pair edged higher Tuesday. Although the move higher is considered corrective, the current bullish tone signals scope for an extension of the upleg. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA and the focus is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2640 which was probed Tuesday. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.2516, Mar 23 low. A break would refocus attention on major support at 1.2365.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Attention Is On Support

• RES 4: 172.78 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• RES 3: 172.66 High Mar 25
• RES 2: 172.34 High Mar 29
• RES 1: 171.56 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 171.04 @ 05:09 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 170.71 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 170.52 Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 3: 170.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 169.24 Low Feb 24 and major support

Bund futures continued to retrace recent gains yesterday. The pullback highlights the importance of support at 170.52, Mar 18 low. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish argument and signal scope for a deeper sell-off. The recent move lower suggests that the entire recovery between Feb 25 - Mar 25 has been a correction and that this corrective is likely over. Key resistance has been defined at 172.66, Mar 25 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Retracement Lower Extends

• RES 4: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 3: 135.520 High Mar 25
• RES 2: 135.440 High Mar 29
• RES 1: 135.220 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 135.010 @ 05:04 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 134.940 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 134.870 Low Mar 19 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 134.780 Low Mar 8 and 9
• SUP 4: 134.670 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Bobl futures traded lower yesterday and appear likely to extend the current retracement. Continued weakness would expose support at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and suggest scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.780 and potentially below. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 135.520, Mar 25 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bull cycle.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Remains Heavy

• RES 4: 112.189 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 3: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 2: 112.165 High Mar 25 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 112.130 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 112.095 @ 05:05 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: 112.085 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 112.060 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 112.026 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 25 rally

Schatz futures have pulled back from recent highs and the contract appears likely to extend its current retracement. This would expose support at 112.070, Mar 18 low where a break would strengthen a bearish argument and suggest scope for a deeper pullback to 112.060 and potentially below. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 112.165, Mar 25 high. A break above this level is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Maintains A Softer Stance

• RES 4: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 3: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 128.93 High Mar 25
• RES 1: 128.040 Low Mar 29 and gap high on the daily chart
• PRICE: 127.58 @ Close Mar 30
• SUP 1: 127.34 Low Mar 19
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded lower yesterday with attention turning to key support at 126.79, Mar 18 low. From a trend perspective, the primary direction remains down and further bearish pressure is seen likely near term. The trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is 126.79. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 128.930, Mar 25 high. A break would expose the key hurdle for bulls at 129.27, Mar 2 high.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Extends Losses

• RES 4: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 2: 150.39 High Mar 11
• RES 1: 149.36 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 149.03 @ Close Mar 30
• SUP 1: 148.57 Low Mar 30
• SUP 2: 148.36 Low Mar 18
• SUP 3: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally
• SUP 4: 147.68 76.4% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally

BTP futures started this week on a softer note and the contract traded lower again yesterday. Resistance is at 150.39, Mar 11 high with a pivotal level at 150.69, 76.4% of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off. While these resistance levels hold, the short-term risk appears skewed to the downside. A breach of 148.36, Mar 18 low would reinforce a bearish argument and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, clearance of 150.39 would instead be bullish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Fresh Trend High Once Again

• RES 4: 4110.24 High Jan 18, 2008
• RES 3: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 3987.14 2.00 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 3929.49 High Mar 30
• PRICE: 3926.20 @ Close Mar 30
• SUP 1: 3841.46 Low Mar 26
• SUP 2: 3784.09 Low Mar 25 and key support
• SUP 3: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 4: 3732.94 50-day EMA

EUROSTOXX 50 traded higher yesterday, registering a fresh trend high print of 3929.49. The outlook remains bullish and this week's gains confirm a resumption of the trend and extends the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for a climb to 3987.14 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support has been defined at 3784.09, Mar 25 low. A break is required to signal a potential short-term top.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Mar 5 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $70.03 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $68.15 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.46 - High Mar 29
• PRICE: $64.61 @ 06:45 Mar 31
• SUP 1: $61.85 - Low Mar 26
• SUP 2: $60.27 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $58.56 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $57.09 - High Jan 13

Brent crude futures traded higher Monday and price has probed resistance at $65.12, Mar 22 high. An extension higher would signal scope for a move towards $68.15, Mar 18 high and also highlight the potential end of the correction lower between Mar 8 - 23. On the downside, key short-term support lies at $60.27, Mar 23 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Positive Tone

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $62.27 - High Mar 30
• PRICE: $60.90 @ 07:00 Mar 31
• SUP 1: $58.32 - Low Mar 26
• SUP 2: $57.25 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 3: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $53.68 - High Jan 13

WTI futures traded higher yesterday. The pair has this week probed resistance at $62.04, Mar 22 high. An extension higher would signal scope for a stronger short-term rally towards $64.88, Mar 18 high and also highlight the potential end of the correction lower between Mar 8 - 23. On the downside, key short-term support lies at $57.25, Mar 23 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: $1768.1 - 50-day EMA
• RES 3: $1755.5 - High Mar 18 and key resistance
• RES 2: $1736.9 - 20-day EMA
• RES 1: $1699.3 - Low Mar 12
• PRICE: $1685.0 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: $1678.0 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020
• SUP 4: $1659.6 - Low Apr 21, 2020

Gold traded lower again Tuesday and remains heavy. The yellow metal has cleared support at $1719.3, Mar 18 low and $1699.3, Mar 12 low. The breach of $1699.3 yesterday marked a key intraday development and reinforces a bearish threat plus signals scope for a move towards $1676.9, the Mar 8 low and a bear trigger. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $1755.5, Mar 18 high.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: $27.081 - High Mar 1
• RES 3: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 2: $25.826 - High Mar 23
• RES 1: $25.257 - High Mar 26
• PRICE: $24.138 @ 07:54 GMT Mar 31
• SUP 1: $23.781 - Intraday low
• SUP 2: $23.524 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 3: $22.591 - Low Dec 12
• SUP 4: $21.899 - Low Nov 30 and a key support

Silver remains soft. The metal traded lower Mar 25 clearing support at $24.836, Mar 5 low and continues to edge lower with further weakness seen likely short-term. The break lower has opened $23.524, the Dec 7 low and a key near-term support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $25.257, Mar 26 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $26.636, Mar 18 high. A break of this level is required to alter the picture.