MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/CAD Strengthens Bearish Condition

Price Signal Summary – USD/CAD Strengthens Bearish Condition

• S&P E-Minis gains are considered corrective and near-term conditions remain bearish despite this week’s climb. This follows the strong sell-off from 4631.00, the Mar 29 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and pushed through initial resistance levels around 3795/97. short-term gains are considered corrective and the near-term risk still appears bearish following the recent pullback from 3944.00, Mar 29 high.
• EURUSD traded higher Wednesday. Trend conditions remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on the recent low of 1.0758 (Apr 14). A break would confirm a resumption of the trend and pave the way for a move towards 1.0727, Apr 24 2020 low. The USDJPY uptrend remains intact. The pair rallied initially Wednesday, extending the recent bullish cycle to touch 129.40. Short-term pullbacks - as seen on Wednesday - should prove corrective. A sharp sell-off Wednesday in USDCAD has strengthened short-term bearish conditions. The move lower resulted in a break of support at 1.2522, the Apr 14 low. This sets the scene for an extension lower and note that the bearish engulfing candle on Apr 13, remains in play.
• WTI futures maintain a bullish tone despite this week’s retracement. A positive outlook follows the recent recovery from $92.60, Apr 11 low. The contract has also recently found support at levels just below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $97.37 today. Gold has this week failed to hold onto recent highs. The pullback from $1998.4, the Apr 18 high, has resulted in a move below the 20-day EMA and has exposed the 50-day EMA at $1926.5.
• Bund futures traded higher Wednesday. Gains are considered corrective and a bearish theme continues to dominate. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Tuesday’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Conditions Intact

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.1026 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0989 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 1.0904 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0838 @ 06:04 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.0758 Low Apr 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0636 Low March 23 2020

EURUSD traded higher Wednesday. Trend conditions remain bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on the recent low of 1.0758 (Apr 14). A break would confirm a resumption of the trend and pave the way for a move towards 1.0727, Apr 24 2020 low and the key 1.0636 level further out, Mar 23 2020 low. For bulls, clearance of 1.1185 is needed to highlight a base. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0904, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.3355 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.3298 High Mar 23 and a pivot resistance
• RES 2: 1.3195 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3086/3147 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 1.3059 @ 06:13 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD is off its recent lows but the recovery remains insufficient to reverse the recent weakness. Attention is on the bear trigger at 1.2974, Apr 13 low. The primary trend remains down and a breach of 1.2974 would confirm a resumption of bearish activity and open 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3147, the Apr 14 high. The 50-day EMA, at 1.3195, also represents a firm resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Mar 31
• RES 3: 0.8477 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8405/8435 High Apr 11 / High Apr 4
• RES 1: 0.8336/56 High Apr 20 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8303 @ 06:26 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8144 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8117 High Apr 7 2016

A bearish cycle in EURGBP remains intact and this week’s recovery is likely a correction. The sharp sell-off between Apr 11 - 14, strengthened the bearish condition. The cross traded below 0.8296, Mar 23 low, as well as 0.8276, 76.4% of the Mar 7 - 31 rally. This opens 0.8203, the Mar 7 low and the next bear trigger. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8405, Apr 11 high. A break would represent a short-term bullish development. Initial resistance is at 0.8336.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 130.43 High Apr 24 2002
• RES 2: 130.00 Psychological round number
• RES 1: 129.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• PRICE: 128.24 @ 06:32 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 127.46/26.98 Low Apr 20 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 125.87 Low Apr 15
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.44 20-day EMA

The USDJPY uptrend remains intact. The pair rallied initially Wednesday, extending the recent bullish cycle to touch 129.40. Short-term pullbacks - as seen on Wednesday - should prove corrective. Recent activity reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the bull cycle, with the focus on 129.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. Sights are also on the psychological 130.00 handle. A firm support is seen at 125.09.

EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The 140.00 Handle

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.93 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 2: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 139.69 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 139.05 @ 06:39 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 137.53/36.87 High Mar 28 / Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 135.65 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 134.26 Low Apr 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 133.94 Low Mar 28

EURJPY trend conditions remain bullish and price is trading near its recent highs. The cross traded initially higher Wednesday, reaching 139.69 - another fresh cycle high. The recent breach of 137.50/53, the Feb 2 2018 and Mar 28 highs respectively, confirms a resumption of the current bull leg that started Mar 7. This also marked the end of the recent corrective phase. The focus is on 140.00 next. Initial firm support is at 135.65, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 0.7661 High Apr 5 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7593 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 0.7519 High Apr 7
• RES 1: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
• PRICE: 0.7445 @ 06:44 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 0.7349/43 50-DMA / Low Apr 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.7282 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 5 climb
• SUP 3: 0.7283 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 0.7181 Low Mar 16

AUDUSD is off its recent low of 0.7343 (Apr 18). Despite recent gains, the pair still appears vulnerable following the pullback from 0.7661, Apr 5 high. Price has recently traded below the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing bearish conditions and this highlights potential for an extension lower. A resumption of weakness would open 0.7282, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance to watch is at 0.7493, Apr 12 high. A break would alter the picture.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Conditions Dominate

• RES 4: 1.2711 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 2: 1.2646/76 High Apr 19 / High Apr 13 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2522/84 Low Apr 14 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2475 @ 06:56 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.2472/69 Low Apr 20 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
• SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021

A sharp sell-off Wednesday in USDCAD has strengthened short-term bearish conditions. The move lower resulted in a break of support at 1.2522, the Apr 14 low. This sets the scene for an extension lower and note that the bearish engulfing candle on Apr 13, remains in play. Sights are on 1.2403, the Apr 5 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 1.2522-84 zone, the Apr 14 low and the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 160.29/31 50-day EMA / High Mar 23
• RES 3: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 156.17/157.20 High Apr 14 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 154.45 @ 05:09 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 153.25/153.00 Low Apr 20 / Round number support
• SUP 2: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 151.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bunds futures traded higher Wednesday. Gains are considered corrective and a bearish theme continues to dominate. Recent weakness has confirmed an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too. The focus is on 153.00 next ahead of 152.65, the Sep 1 2015 low (cont). Initial resistance is at 156.17, Apr 14 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 130.160 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 129.989 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 1: 128.310/575 High Apr 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.6540 @ 05:12 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 127.120 Low Apr 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.940 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bobl futures are consolidating. The primary downtrend remains intact though. A fresh cycle low on Apr 12 confirmed a resumption of the trend. The move lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages also point south. The focus is on a 126.940, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 129.350, the Apr 4 high. Initial resistance is at 128.310.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Primary Trend Remains Down

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.726 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.535 @ 05:17 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 110.295 Low Apr 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 110.188 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Recent gains in Schatz futures are considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down. The Apr 12 cycle low of 110.295 confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for weakness towards 110.188 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 110.855, the Apr 4 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 121.88 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 119.95/120.96 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
• RES 1: 118.71 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 118.40 @ Close Apr 20
• SUP 1: 117.53 Low Apr 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015
• SUP 4: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. Tuesday’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. The fresh cycle low maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and moving average studies continue to point south. This opens 117.04 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the 20-day EMA at 119.95, is seen as a firm short-term resistance.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Trading Near Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 3: 138.68 High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 2: 135.86/137.74 20-day EMA / High Apr 5
• RES 1: 135.23 High Apr 14
• PRICE: 133.14 @ Close Apr 20
• SUP 1: 132.35 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 132.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 131.85 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

BTP futures are trading near its recent lows. The trend direction remains down. Recent fresh cycle lows confirmed a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. Moving averages remain in a bear mode too. The focus is on 131.85 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high. The 20-day EMA, at 135.86, marks initial resistance.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) MA Studies Remain In Bear Mode

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 3829.00 @ 05:40 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 3684.00 Low Apr 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher Wednesday and pushed through initial resistance levels around 3795/97. short-term gains are considered corrective and the near-term risk still appears bearish following the recent pullback from 3944.00, Mar 29 high. Moving average studies are positioned in a bear mode highlighting a likely bearish trend direction. Weakness though 3684.00 would resume the downtrend. Resistance is at 3888.00, Apr 5 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Gains Still Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 4478.50 @ 06:53 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 4355.50 Low Apr 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4321.07 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 3: 4247.89 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 4: 4129.50 Low Mar 15

S&P E-Minis gains are considered corrective and near-term conditions remain bearish despite this week’s climb. This follows the strong sell-off from 4631.00, the Mar 29 high. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 4321.07, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger is 4355.50, Apr 18 low. Initial firm resistance has been established at 4519.75, the Apr 8 high A break would ease the bearish threat and represent a potential bullish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Remains Above The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $114.84 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $108.47 @ 07:05 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $104.65 - Low Apr 20
• SUP 2: $102.33/97.57 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

The short-term outlook for Brent futures remains positive despite this week’s retracement. A break of resistance at 114.84, Apr 18 high, would resume the recent recovery and open $119.74, the Mar 24 high. The contract has recently recovered from just below the 50-day EMA - a bullish development. The EMA intersects at $102.33 today. For bears, a clear break of this EMA would suggest scope for a deeper decline and open $94.61, the Mar 16 low.

WTI TECHS: (M2) Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $110.22 - High Mar 28
• RES 1: $109.20 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $103.67 @ 07:14 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $97.37 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 3: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $86.67 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures maintain a bullish tone despite this week’s retracement. A positive outlook follows the recent recovery from $92.60, Apr 11 low. The contract has also recently found support at levels just below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $97.37 today. A resumption of strength would open $113.51, the Mar 24 high and a key near-term resistance. Initial resistance is at $109.20, the Apr 18 high. Key support has been defined at $92.60.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $2059.2 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 1: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1952.4 @ 07:20 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $1926.5/1915.5 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 6
• SUP 2: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold has this week failed to hold onto recent highs. The pullback from $1998.4, the Apr 18 high, has resulted in a move below the 20-day EMA and has exposed the 50-day EMA at $1926.5. A break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and open $1915.5, Apr 6 low and the key support at $1890.2, the Mar 29 low. Clearance of $1998.4 would reinstate a bullish theme.

SILVER TECHS: Trading At This Week’s Lows

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• PRICE: $25.084 @ 07:57 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $24.784/23.974 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 29 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.173 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver has reversed lower this week from its recent high of $26.222 on Apr 18. The move threatens the recent bullish theme and attention turns to support at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $24.784. Clearance of this EMA would suggest scope for a deeper pullback and open the key support at $23.974, the Mar 29 low. On the upside, clearance of $26.222 would instead reinstate a bullish theme.