MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Bearish Into NFP
Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Bearish Into NFP
- A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact, however, Tuesday’s sharp sell-off signals the start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and pierced support at the 50-day average, at 5520.21.Eurostoxx 50 futures have reversed course this week and a bearish tone remains intact for now. The move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights the start of a corrective cycle, paving the way for a pullback towards 4805.47.
- USDJPY is trading lower this week having faced resistance just above the 20-day EMA, at 146.43. A bearish trend condition is intact, reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. A continuation lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. AUDUSD remains above yesterday’s low following a recovery intraday. A bull cycle remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA and this has exposed a more important support at 0.6674, the 50-day EMA. Despite yesterday’s pullback, USDCAD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Recent gains appear to be corrective and the recent impulsive sell-off reinforces a bearish condition.
- The trend in Gold is unchanged and remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. The recent breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the focus is on $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. WTI futures maintain a softer tone following this week’s sharp sell-off. The break lower has resulted in a breach of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12.
- Bund futures have recovered from Monday’s low and from levels just below support at the 50-day EMA, at 132.99. Recent short-term weakness appears to have been a correction and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Gilt futures have recovered this week. The move off Monday’s low signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. The trend outlook is bullish and this is reinforced by a bullish moving average set-up on the continuation chart.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Support At The 20-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.1140/1202 High Aug 29 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1078 @ 06:13 BST Sep 05
- SUP 1: 1.1026 Low Sep 03
- SUP 2: 1.0990 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0965 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
EURUSD continues to trade closer to its recent lows and is finding support at the 20-day EMA - at 1.1052. A clear break of this average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.0965, allowing for a deeper correction. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a primary uptrend. A resumption of gains would set the scene for a climb towards 1.1234, a Fibonacci projection.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3200/3266 High Aug 30 / 27 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3151 @ 06:30 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 1.3088 Low Sep 03
- SUP 2: 1.3057 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2975 Low Aug 20
- SUP 4: 1.2934 50-day EMA
GBPUSD is unchanged and a short-term bearish theme - a correction - remains in play. Firm support to watch lies at 1.3057, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising medium-term trend condition. A resumption of gains would open 1.3328, a Fibonacci retracement.
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Cycle
- RES 4: 0.8623 High Aug 22r
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 2: 0.8478 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8437/8465 High Aug 28 / 20-Day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8425 @ 06:36 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30
- SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
The impulsive August sell-off in EURGBP confirmed a clear bearish theme and all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8 have been cleared. The latest sideways move appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8465, the 20-day EMA. A bounce would be considered corrective.
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 150.89 High Aug 1
- RES 3: 149.86 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 149.39 High Aug 15
- RES 1: 146.43/147.21 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- PRICE: 143.43 @ 06:49 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 143.19 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
- SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28
USDJPY is trading lower this week having faced resistance just above the 20-day EMA, at 146.43. A bearish trend condition is intact, reinforced by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. A continuation lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. For bulls, a clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal scope for a stronger correction.
EURJPY TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
- RES 3: 164.25 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 164.03 200 DMA
- RES 1: 161.82/162.89 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
- PRICE: 158.65 @ 07:27 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 158.03 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - 15 bull leg
- SUP 2: 156.65 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - 15 bull leg
- SUP 3: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bearish and this week’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The cross is again trading lower. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this also reinforces a bearish theme. Sights are on 156.65, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would open the key support at 154.42, the Aug 5 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 162.89, the Sep 2 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6824 High Aug 29 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6723 @ 07:54 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 0.6674 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
AUDUSD remains above yesterday’s low following a recovery intraday. A bull cycle remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA and this has exposed a more important support at 0.6674, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 0.6824, Aug 29 high, would resume the uptrend.
USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.3646 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.3652 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3582 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3565 High Sep 03
- PRICE: 1.3512 @ 07:59 BST Sep 05
- SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 08
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 05
Despite yesterday’s pullback, USDCAD continues to trade closer to its recent lows. Recent gains appear to be corrective and the recent impulsive sell-off reinforces a bearish condition. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of bearish activity would signal scope for a move towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3582 the 20-day EMA.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
- RES 4: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 134.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 2: 134.50 High Aug 22
- RES 1: 134.23 High Sep 4
- PRICE: 134.10 @ 05:35 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 133.56 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures have recovered from Monday’s low and from levels just below support at the 50-day EMA, at 132.99. Recent short-term weakness appears to have been a correction and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. First resistance is 134.50, the Aug 22 high, where a break would strengthen a near-term bullish condition. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would highlight scope for a deeper retracement.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Finds Support
- RES 4: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
- RES 3: 119.764 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 119.538 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 119.440 Intraday high
- PRICE: 119.390 @ 05:47 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 119.012 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3
- SUP 3: 118.440 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - 7 - 13 price swing
- SUP 4: 118.170 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 7 - 13 price swing
A corrective bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play, however, this week’s recovery is potentially an early bullish signal. The contract has found support at 118.580, the Sep 3 low. A continuation higher would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a climb towards key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.130, the Aug 5 high. On the downside, a break of 118.580 would reinstate a bearish theme.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Recovery Extends
- RES 4: 107.210 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 107.047 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 106.946 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.820 High Sep 4
- PRICE: 106.800 @ 06:09 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 2: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 106.315 1.00 of the Aug 5 - 7 - 13 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 106.193 1.236 of the Aug 5 - 7 - 13 minor price swing
An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The recovery this week is a positive development and signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. A continuation higher would pave the way for a climb towards 107.047, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, clearance of 106.520, the Sep 3 low would reinstate the recent bear cycle.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Reversal Extends
- RES 4: 101.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 100.30 High Aug 14
- RES 2: 99.85 High Aug 22
- RES 1: 99.69 Intraday high
- PRICE: 99.68 @ 08:03 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 99.02/98.11 Low Sep 4 / 2
- SUP 2: 98.00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 97.91 1.618 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 97.73 1.764 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
Gilt futures have recovered this week. The move off Monday’s low signals the end of the recent corrective cycle. The trend outlook is bullish and this is reinforced by a bullish moving average set-up on the continuation chart. An extension higher would signal scope for a climb towards the next firm resistance at 99.85, the Aug 22 high. On the downside, clearance of support at 98.11, Sep 2 low, would reinstate the recent bearish theme.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 121.04 2.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 120.76 2.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 120.42 2.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 119.90 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 119.63 @ Close Sep 4
- SUP 1: 118.16 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 118.00 Low Jul 29
- SUP 3: 116.21 Low Jul 9
- SUP 4: 115.14 Low Jul 1
The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and the latest move lower is considered corrective. This week’s gains reinforce this theme. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and a bullish trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Attention is on key resistance at 119.90, Aug 22 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key support is at 118.16, the Sep 2 low.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
- RES 1: 4998.00 High Sep 3 and a short-term bull trigger
- PRICE: 4843.00 @ 06:25 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 4838.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 4805.47 38.2% retracement of Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4747.00 50.0% retracement of Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4718.00 Low Aug 14
Eurostoxx 50 futures have reversed course this week and a bearish tone remains intact for now. The move down has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This highlights the start of a corrective cycle, paving the way for a pullback towards 4805.47 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm short-term resistance has been defined at 4998.00, the Sep 3 high. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bullish theme.
E-MINI S&P: (U4) Pierces Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and key resistance
- RES 1: 5562.66/5669.75 20-day EMA / High Sep 3 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 5518.25 @ 07:56 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: 5506.75 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5459.75 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5438.75 Low Aug 14
- SUP 4: 5394.88 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg
A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact, however, Tuesday’s sharp sell-off signals the start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and pierced support at the 50-day average, at 5520.21. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5459.75, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. A breach of it would be bullish.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: $86.24 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $83.50 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 2: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
- RES 1: $77.39 - 20-day EMA
- PRICE: $72.92 @ 07:03 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: $72.35 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 2: $70.35 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $68.99 - 1.50 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures have traded sharply lower this week and this has resulted in a break of support at $74.62, the Aug 5 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started in April and paves the way for an extension towards $70.35, a Fibonacci projection. A key support at $73.16, the Dec 13 ‘23 low, has been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Initial resistance is at $77.39, the 20-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (V4) Heading South
- RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
- RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5
- RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18
- RES 1: $74.13/78.54 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance
- PRICE: $69.45 @ 07:22 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: $68.82 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 2: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $65.30 - 1.50 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.93 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures maintain a softer tone following this week’s sharp sell-off. The break lower has resulted in a breach of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12 and paves the way for an extension towards $66.66, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial resistance is at $74.13, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Trend Condition Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
- RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20
- PRICE: $2503.6 @ 07:19 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
- SUP 2: $2440.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2417.0 - Low Sep 8
- SUP 4: $2364.4 - Low Aug 5
The trend in Gold is unchanged and remains bullish. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. The recent breach of $2483.7, the Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the focus is on $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has been pierced. The next firm support to watch lies at $2440.9, the 50-day EMA. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.
SILVER TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
- RES 1: $28.916/30.192 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 26
- PRICE: $28.266 @ 08:08 BST Sep 5
- SUP 1: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and the latest sell-off reinforces this theme. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low, before rebounding and this has exposed key support at $26.018, May 2 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $30.192, the Aug 26 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.
MNI (LONDON)