MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Bull Cycle Extends Post-BoJ
Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Bull Cycle Extends Post-BoJ
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract remains closer to its recent highs. Fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions and note that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to reflect positive market sentiment.
- A bull theme in EURUSD remains intact, however, a corrective cycle suggests potential for a continuation lower near-term. Attention is on 1.0859, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. USDJPY is trading higher today following this morning’s BOJ announcement. The extension strengthens a short-term bullish condition and the USD has cleared a number of short-term resistance points. The move above 150.00 signals scope for a test of key resistance. AUDUSD is trading lower today and the pair remains below its recent highs. The latest pullback appears to be a correction, however, the breach of the 50-day EMA does signal scope for continuation lower and this has exposed support at 0.6478.
- The trend condition in Gold is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective and appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern. The yellow metal recently cleared $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. WTI futures have started this week on a bullish note, trading higher once again, yesterday. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $79.87, Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year.
- Bund futures remain soft and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The latest move down appears to be a correction, however, a continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode position, however, last week’s move lower does suggest scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation of the latest sell-off would open 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 96.83.
EURUSD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.1084 High Dec 29
- RES 3: 1.1034 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.0998 High Jan 5
- RES 1: 1.0955/981 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.0865 @ 06:11 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 1.0859 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0796 Low Feb 29
- SUP 3: 1.0762/0695 Low Feb 20 / 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.0656 Low Nov 10
A bull theme in EURUSD remains intact, however, a corrective cycle suggests potential for a continuation lower near-term. Attention is on 1.0859, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 1.0796, the Feb 29 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains and a break of 1.0981, the Mar 8 high, is required to resume the uptrend and open 1.0998, the Jan 5 high.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends
- RES 4: 1.3045 High Jul 19 2023
- RES 3: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
- RES 2: 1.2946 2.00 projection of the Feb 14 - 22 - Mar 1 price swing
- RES 1: 1.2823/2894 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2709 @ 06:19 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 1.2684 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2600 Low Mar 1
- SUP 3: 1.2536 Low Feb 14
- SUP 4: 1.2519 Low Feb 5 and the bear trigger
GBPUSD is trading lower this morning, extending the corrective pullback from 1.2894, the Mar 8 high and bull trigger. The pair is approaching support at 1.2684, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 1.2600, the Mar 1 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 1.2894. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and open 1.2946, a Fibonacci projection.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bearish
- RES 4: 0.8676 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 0.8620 High Jan 20
- RES 2: 0.8593 High Jan 19
- RES 1: 0.8578 High Feb 20 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.8550 @ 06:31 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 0.8504 Low Mar 08
- SUP 2: 0.8493 Low Aug 23 2023 and a key medium-term support
- SUP 3: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
- SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2023
EURGBP is in consolidation mode. The broader trend direction is unchanged and remains down. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend with sights on key support at 0.8493, Aug 23 low. Clearance of this level would resume the trend and signal scope for 0.8454, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, key resistance is at 0.8578, the Feb 20 high. A breach of this level would highlight a range break out and a reversal.
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 151.91/95 High Nov 13 / High Oct 1 ‘22 and major resistance
- RES 3: 151.43 High Nov 16
- RES 2: 150.89 High Feb 13 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 150.48 Intraday high
- PRICE: 150.37 @ 08:09 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 148.41 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 147.44 Low Mar 14
- SUP 3: 146.49 Low Mar 08 / 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 145.90 Low Feb 1
USDJPY is trading higher today following this morning’s BOJ announcement. The extension strengthens a short-term bullish condition and the USD has cleared a number of short-term resistance points. The move above 150.00 signals scope for a test of key resistance and the bull trigger at 150.89, the Feb 13 high. A break of this level would resume the uptrend. Key support lies at 146.49, the Mar 8 / 11 low. Initial support is at 148.41, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact
- RES 4: 165.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 164.30 High Nov 16 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 163.72 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 163.50 Intraday high
- PRICE: 163.19@ 08:10 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 161.95 Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: 161.07/22 Trendline drawn from Dec 7 low / Low Mar 11
- SUP 3: 159.47 Low Feb 8
- SUP 4: 158.92 Low Feb 7
EURJPY maintains a firmer tone. Key trendline support - at 161.07 - drawn from the Dec 7 low remains intact. The trendline has recently been pierced. A clear break of the line is required to signal a reversal, paving the way initially for 158.92, the Feb 7 low. While the trendline holds, the outlook is bullish. The latest recovery exposes key resistance and the bull trigger at 163.72, Feb 26 high. Clearance of this level would open 164.30, Nov 16 high.
AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6729 High Jan 12
- RES 3: 0.6708 61.8% retracement of the Dec 28 - Feb 13 bear cycle
- RES 2: 0.6632/68 High Mar 14 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6584 High Mar 15
- PRICE: 0.6516 @ 06:49 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 0.6478 Low Mar 5
- SUP 2: 0.6443 Low Feb 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 4: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
AUDUSD is trading lower today and the pair remains below its recent highs. The latest pullback appears to be a correction, however, the breach of the 50-day EMA does signal scope for continuation lower and this has exposed support at 0.6478, the Mar 5 low. The bear trigger lies at 0.6443, the Feb 13 low. Clearance of resistance at 0.6668, the Mar 8 high, is required to resume the recent bull cycle and open 0.6708, a Fibonacci retracement.
USDCAD TECHS: Approaching Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3729 76.4% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3661 High Nov 27
- RES 2: 1.3623 61.8% retracement of the Nov 1 - Dec 27 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3606 High Feb 28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.3567 @ 07:57 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3359 Low Jan 31 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: 1.3343 Low Jan 12
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD short-term conditions remain bearish, however, a continuation of the latest recovery would undermine this theme and expose key resistance at 1.3606, Feb 28 high. The pair is firmer again today. Clearance of 1.3606 would resume the uptrend that has been in place since December 27 and open 1.3623, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, a move below 1.3420, Mar 8 low, would instead resume bearish activity and open 1.3359, Jan 31 low.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (M4) Trading At Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: 134.78 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 bear cycle
- RES 3: 134.48 High Feb 5
- RES 2: 133.10/134.15 50-day EMA / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 132.68 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 131.78 @ 05:42 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 131.54 Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: 131.23 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 131.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 129.88 Bear channel base drawn from the Dec 27 high
Bund futures remain soft and the contract is trading at its recent lows. The latest move down appears to be a correction, however, a continuation lower would expose key support and the bear trigger at 131.23, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late December last year. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 133.10, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be bullish.
BOBL TECHS: (M4) Watching Support
- RES 4: 119.050 High Feb 8
- RES 2: 118.790 High Feb 15 and Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 119.000 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 118.014 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.570 @ 05:26 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 117.340 Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: 117.200 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 117.000 Round number support
- SUP 4: 116.740 High Mar 5 (cont)
Bobl futures are trading just above their recent lows. A broader bearish cycle is intact and a continuation lower would open the key support and bear trigger at 117.200, the Feb 29 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started early December last year. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at 118.790, the Feb 15 / Mar 8 high. A break would resume the recent bullish corrective phase.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M4) Approaching Key Support
- RES 4: 106.315 High Feb 8
- RES 3: 106.145 High Feb 15
- RES 2: 106.040 Low Feb 15
- RES 1: 105.778/106.010 20-day EMA / High Mar 8
- PRICE: 105.545 @ 05:40 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 105.515 Low Mar 15
- SUP 2: 105.490 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 105.430 High Feb 20 (cont)
- SUP 4: 105.310 High Feb 26 (cont)
The downtrend in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback reinforces this theme. The move lower refocuses attention on key short-term support and the bear trigger at 105.490, the Feb 29 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in December last year. A reversal higher would open 106.010, the Mar 8 high, where a break is required to resume a bullish corrective phase.
GILT TECHS: (M4) Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 101.00 Round number support
- RES 3: 100.73 1.764 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
- RES 2: 100.50 1.618 projection of the Feb 29 - Mar 1 - 4 price swing
- RES 1: 99.35/100.37 High Mar 14 / 12 and a key S/T resistance
- PRICE: 98.41 @ Close Mar 18
- SUP 1: 98.05 Low Mar 15
- SUP 2: 97.67 76.4% retracement of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally
- SUP 3: 97.42 Low Mar 1
- SUP 4: 96.83 Low Feb 29 and the bear trigger
Gilt futures remain in a bull-mode position, however, last week’s move lower does suggest scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation of the latest sell-off would open 97.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose the key support and bear trigger at 96.83, Feb 29 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 100.37, the Mar 13 high. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the recent bull cycle.
BTP TECHS: (M4) Watching Support At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 121.65 2.618 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
- RES 3: 121.19 2.382 proj of the Feb 22 - 26 - 29 price swing
- RES 2: 120.65 High Dec 27 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 120.28 High Mar 14
- PRICE: 118.78 @ Close Mar 18
- SUP 1: 118.46/33 20-day EMA / Low Mar 15
- SUP 2: 117.68 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 116.15 Low Feb 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support
BTP futures have pulled back from their recent highs. A short-term bullish theme remains intact following the recovery that started on Feb 22, however, a clear break of support at the 20-day EMA - at 118.46 - would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 117.68, the 50-day EMA and a key short-term support. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 120.65, the Dec 27 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5127.70 1.382 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 3: 5074.70 1.236 proj of the Jan 17 - Feb 12 - 13 price swing
- RES 2: 5000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 1: 4988.00 High Mar 14
- PRICE: 4925.00 @ 06:10 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 4867.30 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 4771.00 Low Feb 22
- SUP 3: 4711.00 Low Feb 19
- SUP 4: 4626.00 Low Feb 13
The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and last week’s fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position and this continues to reflect positive market sentiment. Sights are on the psychological 5000.00 handle. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 4867.30, the 20-day EMA.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 5322.11 3.0% Bollinger Band
- RES 3: 5305.35 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 5300.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5257.25 High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5208.50 @ 06:48 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: 5168.27 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5057.80 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 4994.25 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 4921.00 Low Jan 31
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract remains closer to its recent highs. Fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions and note that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow. This is an important bullish signal, reflecting positive market sentiment. Support to watch is 5168.27 the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would open 5057.80, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on 5300.00 next.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (K4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $89.26 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
- RES 2: $88.31 - High Oct 20
- RES 1: $87.18 - High Mar 18
- PRICE: $86.66 @ 06:53 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: $83.14 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $81.64/76.41 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5 and key S/T support
- SUP 3: $74.84 - Low Jan 03
- SUP 4: $73.22 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
Brent futures have started this week on a firm note and the contract traded higher Monday. Price has recently cleared resistance at $84.34, Mar 1 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Dec 13. $85.47, 76.4% of the Sep 15 - Dec 13 bear cycle, has also been cleared, reinforcing bullish conditions and this opens $88.31, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $83.14, the 20-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (K4) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $84.87 - High Sep 15 ‘23 and a key resistance
- RES 2: $83.87 - High Oct 20 ‘23
- RES 1: $82.50 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $82.12 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: $78.44 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $76.93/71.52 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 5
- SUP 3: $70.02 - Low Jan 3
- SUP 4: $68.85 - Low Dec 13 and the bear trigger
WTI futures have started this week on a bullish note, trading higher once again, yesterday. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $79.87, Mar 1 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since mid-December last year. Sights are on $83.87 next, the Oct 20 ‘23 high. A break of this level would open $84.87, the Sep 15 ‘23 high and a key resistance On the downside, support to watch is $78.44, the 20-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $2195.2 - High Mar 8
- PRICE: $2155.3 @ 08:01 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: $2123.8 - Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: $2117.4/2088.5 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 28
- SUP 3: $2072.8 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2016.1 - Low Feb 23
The trend condition in Gold is bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective and appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern. The yellow metal recently cleared $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and opens $2206.6, a Fibonacci projection. S/T conditions are overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm support is $2117.4, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $26.222 - High Apr 18 ‘22
- RES 3: $26.135 - High May 5 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
- RES 2: $25.761 - High Dec 4 and a key resistance
- RES 1: $25.448 - High Mar 15
- PRICE: $24.979 @ 08:03 GMT Mar 19
- SUP 1: $23.873 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $23.428 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
- SUP 4: $21.928 - Low Jan 22 and a key support
A bullish condition in Silver remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The metal has traded through $24.856, 76.4% of the Dec 4 - Jan 22 bear leg. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards $25.761, the Dec 4 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $23.984, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.