MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Bulls Remain In Charge

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Bulls Remain In Charge

• The primary trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract continues to trade higher and maintains a bullish tone following last week’s gains and this week’s follow through. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded higher and have moved out of its recent range. This reinforces current bullish condition and the contract is closing in on the 50-day EMA at 3873.40.
• EURUSD recovered off yesterday’s 1.0961 low. The pair is lower on the week though and continues to trade below last week’s high of 1.1137. Recent price action challenged resistance at 1.1121, Jan 28 low and the Mar 10 high. USDJPY bulls remain in charge. The pair has traded higher once again today, extending this week’s climb. The USD has cleared the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high and more importantly, traded through the psychological 120.00 handle.
• WTI futures are holding onto recent gains following the recovery from $92.20, the Mar 15 low. The move higher means the 50-day EMA, at $93.80 today, remains intact and that this average also provided a firm short-term support last week. Gold is unchanged. The short-term outlook remains bearish following the recent pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition is bullish however and the recent pullback is still considered corrective.
• Bunds resumed their downtrend yesterday. The contract has traded through last week’s low of 161.56. The break lower has also resulted in a move below the psychological 160.00 handle. Gilt futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and the extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. Yesterday’s activity confirmed a break of key support at 121.10, the Feb 6 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: 1.1280 Low Feb 14
• RES 3: 1.1232 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.1180/1229 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 1.1137 High Mar 17 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 1.1035 @ 06:07 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 1.0961 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD recovered off yesterday’s 1.0961 low. The pair is lower on the week though and continues to trade below last week’s high of 1.1137. Recent price action challenged resistance at 1.1121, Jan 28 low and the Mar 10 high. The failure to confirm a clear break of this hurdle reinforces bearish conditions - the primary trend remains down. Further weakness would open 1.0890, the Mar 9 low and 1.0806, Mar 7 low and bear trigger. Resistance is at 1.1137.

GBPUSD TECHS: Recovery Extends

• RES 4: 1.3492 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.3349 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3298 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3284 @ 06:30 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 1.3120/3000 Low Mar 22 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

The impulsive rally in GBPUSD extended Tuesday. This has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA. The pair has also traded above the 1.0% 10-dma envelope (at 1.3257). The break higher strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards the 50-day EMA at 1.3349. This EMA is seen as a key short-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.3120, yesterday’s low.

EURGBP TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 0.8553 High Feb 14
• RES 3: 0.8498/8535 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8478 High Feb 7 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8374/8458 High Mar 22 / Mar 17 High
• PRICE: 0.8311 @ 06:54 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 0.8296 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP traded low Tuesday. This threatens the recent bullish theme and exposes support at 0.8278, the Mar 7 low. Clearance of this support would highlight a stronger reversal and expose key short-term support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 low. The cross is also trading below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A recovery would refocus attention on 0.8458, Mar 17 high, where a break is required to resume the recent upleg.

USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In Control

• RES 4: 124.63 High Aug 13 2015
• RES 3: 123.76 High Nov 18 2015
• RES 2: 122.47 2.382 projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 121.69 High Jan 29 2016
• PRICE: 121.14 @ 06:39 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 119.04/ Low Mar 21 / 118.18 Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: 117.74/28 / 20-day EMA / Low Mar 14
• SUP 4: 116.35 High Jan 4

USDJPY bulls remain in charge. The pair has traded higher once again today, extending this week’s climb. The USD has cleared the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jun 1 2021 high and more importantly, traded through the psychological 120.00 handle. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and strengthens bullish conditions. The focus shifts to 121.69 next, the Jan 29 2016 high. Support is seen at Monday’s 119.04 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 135.85 High Feb 7 2018
• RES 3: 134.13 High Jun 1 2021 and a major resistance
• RES 2: 134.09 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 1: 133.89 Intraday high
• PRICE: 132.96 @ 17:03 GMT Mar 22
• SUP 1: 131.59 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 130.72 Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: 129.23 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 127.42 Low Mar 10

EURJPY traded higher yesterday and is firmer once again today. The cross has topped the bull trigger at the Feb 10 high of 133.15. This strengthens the near-term bullish outlook, with the cross at fresh YTD highs. Upside targets shift higher to the 3.0% 10-dma envelope of 134.09. The cross also remains above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Initial firm support is seen at 131.59, Tuesday’s low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Key Resistance Topped, Bull Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6 2021
• RES 3: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7532 High Nov 2, 2021
• RES 1: 0.7477 Intraday high / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• PRICE: 0.7461 @ 07:02 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 0.7361 Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: 0.7307/7252 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.7095 Low Feb 24

The near-term AUDUSD outlook strengthened further Tuesday, with the pair showing at new YTD and multi-month highs. The rally follows the strong reversal from 0.7165, the Mar 15 low. This reinforces the current bull cycle that started Jan 28. The break of 0.7441, Mar 7 high, signal scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7361, the Mar 18 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Trading At This Week’s Lows

• RES 4: 1.2964 High Dec 20 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 2: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2697 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2571 @ 07:55 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 1.2565 Low Mar 21 and a near-term bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2552 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2499 Low Jan 21
• SUP 4: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support

USDCAD is trading at its recent lows and remains soft. A bearish theme follows last week’s reversal from 1.2871, Mar 15 high. The USD has breached the Mar 3 low of 1.2587. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper pullback. Attention is on 1.2552 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally and a key short-term support. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 1.2697, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 163.20 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 162.62 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 162.05 High Mar 15
• PRICE: 159.20 @ 05:01 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 159.06 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 158.84 Low Oct 22 2018 (cont)
• SUP 3: 157.92 150.0% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 rally
• SUP 4: 157.33 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)

Bunds resumed their downtrend yesterday. The contract has traded through last week’s low of 161.56. The break lower has also resulted in a move below the psychological 160.00 handle. The continuation lower confirms an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. The focus is on 158.84, the Oct 22 2018 low (cont). Resistance is at 162.05.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Heading South

• RES 4: 132.370 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 131.550 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 131.207 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 130.300 Low Mar 16
• PRICE: 129.690 @ 05:07 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 129.544 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 2: 129.008 138.2% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg
• SUP 3: 128.820 Low Dec 4 2015 (cont)
• SUP 4: 128.340 Low Sep 17 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures remain vulnerable. The contract has traded through last week’s low of 130.300 on Mar 16. This has confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break lower paves the way for a move towards 129.544 next, the 123.6% retracement of the Feb 8 - Mar 7 upleg. The 20-day EMA at 131.207 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Theme Dominates

• RES 4: 111.740 High Mar 10
• RES 3: 111.560 High Mar 11
• RES 2: 111.438 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 111.205 Low Mar 16
• PRICE: 111.070@ 05:14 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 111.100 Round number support
• SUP 2: 111.065 Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 111.000 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 110.602 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2020 bull cycle

Schatz futures remain bearish, having started the week on a bearish note. The move lower strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend plus marks an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break lower paves the way for an extension towards the 111.000 and 111.065, the Jun 5 2015 low on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.495.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 125.85 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 1: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 120.42 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 120.29 Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Gilt futures remain in a bear cycle following recent weakness and the extension of the pullback from the Mar 1 high of 126.81. Yesterday’s activity confirmed a break of key support at 121.10, the Feb 6 low. This marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and opens 120.00. Recent short-term gains were considered corrective and price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Key Support Gives Way

• RES 4: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 143.85 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• RES 1: 140.86 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.36 @ Close Mar 22
• SUP 1: 137.94 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 136.86 Low May 13 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.13 61.8% retracement of the Mar ‘19 - Aug ‘21 bull cycle

BTP futures remain vulnerable. The contract has traded lower this week and cleared key support at 138.60, the Feb 16 low and a bear trigger. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and highlights an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 137.52, the May 18 2020 low on the continuation chart. Resistance is seen at 140.86, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Holding Onto This Weeks Gains

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4514.75 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4509.25 @ 06:56 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 4352.15 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)

The primary trend in the S&P E-Minis remains bearish, however, the contract continues to trade higher and maintains a bullish tone following last week’s gains and this week’s follow through. The contract has cleared both the 20-day EMA and late last week, the 50-day EMA. The breach of the latter average is an important S/T bullish development and an extension would open 4578.50, the Feb 9 high. Initial support is at 4352.15, the 20-day EMA.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3965.50 High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3873.40 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3864.00 @ 05:23 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: 3555.50 Low Mar 15 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded higher and have moved out of its recent range. This reinforces current bullish condition and the contract is closing in on the 50-day EMA at 3873.40. This average represents an important resistance and if cleared, would further strengthen a bullish short-term theme. Support to watch lies at 3555.50 Mar 15 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $129.17 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $123.01 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $119.48 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $115.74 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $106.85 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $98.41/96.93 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures maintain a firmer short-term tone. The contract last week managed to remain above key support at the 50-day EMA that intersects at $98.41 today. Price has cleared resistance at 113.91, the Mar 11 high. The break of this level has strengthened bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger short-term recovery towards 123.01 a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, clearance of the 50-day EMA would reinstate a bearish threat.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Positive Short-Term Tone Intact

• RES 4: $126.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $113.35 - 61.8% of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg and Mar 22 high
• PRICE: $110.03 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $101.56 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $93.80/92.20 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures are holding onto recent gains following the recovery from $92.20, the Mar 15 low. The move higher means the 50-day EMA, at $93.80 today, remains intact and that this average also provided a firm short-term support last week. A continuation higher would open 118.34, a Fibonacci retracement level. On the downside, a breach of the 50-day EMA would instead reinstate the recent bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1954.7 - High Mar 15
• PRICE: $1918.2 @ 07:15 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $1895.3 - Low Mar 15 and the 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low feb 11

Gold is unchanged. The short-term outlook remains bearish following the recent pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The broader trend condition is bullish however and the recent pullback is still considered corrective. The move lower has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached and this opens $1895.3 next, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, an initial firm S/T resistance is seen at $2009.2, Mar 10 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $24.847@ 07:25 GMT Mar 23
• SUP 1: $24.473 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $24.354 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $22.863 - Low Feb 11

Silver remains in an uptrend however the recent pullback - a correction - is still in play despite the bounce off $24.473, the Mar 16 low. Potential is seen for a deeper short-term pullback. The metal has traded below the 20-day EMA and attention turns to the 50-day EMA at 24.354. This EMA marks an important support. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.