MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

Tech Focus: Price Signal Summary - USD Trend Outlook Remains Bullish

In the equity space, S&P E-minis continue to consolidate but remain vulnerable following last week's selling pressure from 3978.50, Mar 18 high. The support to watch is 3875.00, Mar 19 low. A break would confirm a move through the 20-day EMA and reinforce short-term bearish conditions.

In the FX space, EURUSD maintains a weaker tone following this week's breach of support at both 1.1836, Mar 19 low and the 1.1800 handle. This opens 1.1800 next, the Nov 23 low and 1.1752, 1.236 projection of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish. The pair has this week cleared 1.3779, Mar 5 low and a bear trigger. Note this has also confirmed a breach of the 50-day EMA and a bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low. The focus is on 1.3641, 38.2% of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle. USDJPY remains in an uptrend. Attention is on 109.56, 76.4% of the Mar 2020 - Jan downleg and an important pivot resistance. Watch support at 108.34 Mar 10 low.

On the commodity front, a bullish theme in Gold remains in place following the recovery that started Mar 8. The focus is on $1777.6, the 50-day EMA. Support is at $1719.3, Mar 18 low. Oil contracts remain in bear mode despite intraday volatility. Recent weakness in Brent (K1) opens $58.56, 38.2% of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally. Resistance is at $65.12, Mar 22 high. In WTI (K1), scope is for a move to $55.65, also 38.2% of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally. Resistance is at $62.04, Mar 22 high.

• Bunds (M1) have probed resistance at 172.20, Mar 11 high. A clear break would open 172.51, Feb 16 high.
• Gilts (M1) have cleared resistance at 128.33, Mar 16 high, suggesting scope for an extension higher. The next key resistance is at 129.27, Mar 2 high.
• Treasuries (M1) remain in a downtrend and gains are considered corrective. Resistance is at 132-09, Mar 17 / 24 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Heavy With 1.1800 Cleared

• RES 4: 1.2006 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.1989/90 High Mar 18 / 11 and the short-term bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.1947 High Mar 22
• RES 1: 1.1853 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 1.1782 @ 05:50 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 1.1752 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing
• SUP 2: 1.1746 Low Nov 11, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.1711 Low Nov 5
• SUP 4: 1.1694 1.382 pro of the Jan 6 - Feb 5 - Feb 25 price swing

EURUSD maintains a weaker tone and extended this week's bear leg again yesterday. The pair has cleared the 1.1800 handle and attention turns to 1.1752 next, a Fibonacci projection. This week's move lower has also resulted in a break of the 200-day MA and confirmed a resumption of this year's downtrend. On the upside, firm resistance is at 1.1947, the Mar 22 high. Initial resistance though is at 1.1853.

GBPUSD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 1.3959 High Mar 19
• RES 3: 1.3858 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3844 Former bull channel base drawn off the Nov 2 low
• RES 1: 1.3779 Low Mar 5 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.3766 @ 05:57 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 1.3663 Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: 1.3641 38.2% retracement of the Sep 23 - Feb 24 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3567 Low Feb 4
• SUP 4: 1.3520 Low Jan 18

GBPUSD maintains a bearish tone and gains are considered corrective. Tuesday's move lower confirmed a breach of the bull channel base from the Nov 2, 2020 low. Furthermore, price has this week cleared the 50-day EMA and a former key support at 1.3779, Mar 5 low, triggering an important S/T reversal. The focus is on 1.3663 next, Feb 5 low. On the upside, the former channel base at 1.3844 today, provides an initial firm resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Feb 9
• RES 3: 0.8731 High Feb 26 and the S/T reversal trigger
• RES 2: 0.8668 High Mar 3
• RES 1: 0.8646 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 0.8558 @ 06:08 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 0.8533 Low Mar 18 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8522 Low Feb 28
• SUP 3: 0.8489 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP found resistance yesterday ending the recent climb and potentially signalling the end of a correction. Trend signals continue to highlight a downtrend and attention is on the bear trigger at 0.8533. A break would resume the trend and expose 0.8489, a volatility based support. Firm resistance is at 0.8731, Feb 26 high. A breach of this hurdle is needed to signal a short-term reversal.

USDJPY TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 110.63 0.764 proj of Mar - Apr 2020 rally from Jan 6 low
• RES 3: 109.85 High Jun 5, 2020
• RES 2: 109.70 High Jun 8, 2020
• RES 1: 109.36/56 High Mar 15 / 76.4% of Mar 2020 - Jan downleg
• PRICE: 109.27 @ 06:16 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 108.34 Low Mar 10 and key near-term support
• SUP 2: 108.18 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 106.97 Low Mar 4
• SUP 4: 106.78 50-day EMA

USDJPY is firmer again but remains within its recent range. Trend conditions are bullish. Attention is on 109.56, a key retracement where a break would reinforce bullish sentiment. Momentum studies remain overbought however this set-up is still not having an impact on the trend and instead, it reinforces the current bullish theme. Support to watch is at 108.34, Mar 10 low. A break would signal a possible top and the start of a correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Key Supports Remain Exposed

• RES 4: 131.22 1.236 proj of the Jun - Sep - Oct 2020 price swing
• RES 3: 130.67 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 129.94 High Mar 22
• RES 1: 129.07 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 128.78 @ 06:26 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 128.18/13 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn off Oct 30, 2020 low
• SUP 2: 127.50 Low Feb 22
• SUP 3: 127.31 Low Feb 17
• SUP 4: 126.98 Low Feb 12

EURJPY traded sharply lower Tuesday as the correction from 130.67, Mar 18 high extends. The cross has this week cleared the 20-day EMA. The break exposes the 50-day EMA at 128.18 and a trendline support at 128.13. The trendline is drawn off the Oct 30 low. A break of this line would suggest scope for a deeper sell-off. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 129.94, Mar 22 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 0.7786 Trendline resistance drawn off the Feb 25 high
• RES 3: 0.7757 High Mar 22
• RES 2: 0.7699 Low Mar 17
• RES 1: 0.7636 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 0.7620 @ 06:33 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 0.7564/63 Low Feb 2 / Mar 25 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.7517 Low Dec 22
• SUP 3: 0.7462 Low Dec 21
• SUP 4: 0.7418 23.6% retracement of the Mar 2020 - Feb rally

AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone. The pair traded lower Tuesday and Wednesday to maintain and has cleared support at 0.7621, Mar 9 low and a bear trigger. The break lower confirms a resumption of the bearish cycle that started at 0.8007, Feb 25 high and paves the way for weakness below 0.7564, the Feb 2 low. On the upside, key resistance has been established at 0.7849, Mar 18 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.2749 High Feb 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2700 High Mar 8
• RES 2: 1.2645 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2629 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 1.2571 @ 06:45 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 1.2516 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 1.2462 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 1.2365 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.2336 1.00 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 25 - Feb 26 price swing

This week's USDCAD recovery remains intact and the pair edged higher again Thursday. Recent gains are still considered corrective, however the continued push higher does suggest scope for an extension of this upleg. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA and the focus is on the 50-day EMA at 1.2645. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 1.2516, Mar 23 low. A break would refocus attention on major support at 1.2365.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 173.48 1.00 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• RES 3: 173.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 172.83 Low May 5
• RES 1: 172.78 0.764 proj of the Feb 25 - Mar 11 - Mar 18 price swing
• PRICE: 172.57 @ 05:11 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 171.93 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 171.42 Low Mar 23
• SUP 3: 170.52 Low Mar 18 and key support
• SUP 4: 170.00 Round number support

Bund futures pushed higher again yesterday and remain positive. Key resistance at 172.20, Mar 11 high has been cleared this week. The break represents an important short-term bullish development and signals the end of the recent period of consolidation. Also, this has confirmed a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 25. The focus is on 172.78 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support has been defined at 170.52, Mar 18 low.

BOBL TECHS: (M1) Bullish Structure Intact

• RES 4: 135.780 1.000 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 3: 135.700 High Dec 11, 2020 (cont)
• RES 2: 135.544 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 9 price swing
• RES 1: 135.520 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 135.490 @ 05:16 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 135.320 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 135.190 Low Mar 23
• SUP 3: 135.010 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 134.870 Low Mar 19 and key short-term support

Bobl futures traded higher yesterday, maintaining a firmer tone. Resistance at 135.220, Mar 16 has been cleared this week. The clear break ends the recent period of consolidation and confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. This paves the way for strength towards 135.540 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support has been defined at 134.870, Mar 18 low where a break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M1) Heading North

• RES 4: 112.201 0.764 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 3: 112.199 50-day EMA (cont)
• RES 2: 112.174 0.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 2 - Mar 10 price swing
• RES 1: 112.160 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 112.155 @ 05:24 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: 112.120 Low Mar 22 and 23
• SUP 2: 112.095 Low Mar 19
• SUP 3: 112.070 Low Mar 18 and a key near-term support
• SUP 4: 112.060 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone. The contract has this week breached resistance at 112.125, Mar 1 / 2 high. The break strengthens a short-term bullish theme and confirms a resumption of the recovery that started Feb 26. Attention is on 112.174, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 112.070, Mar 18 low. A break is required to reinstate a bearish theme.

GILT TECHS: (M1) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: 130.38 High Feb 17
• RES 3: 129.75 High Feb 19
• RES 2: 129.27 High Mar 2 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: 128.93 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 128.66 @ Close Mar 25
• SUP 1: 127.55 Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 126.79 Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 126.55 Low Apr 17, 2019 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded higher yesterday, extending the bounce from 126.79, Mar 18 low. This week's gains resulted in a move above former resistance at 128.33, Mar 16 high. Continued gains would suggest scope for a climb towards the firm resistance and a bull trigger at 129.27, Mar 2 high. From a trend perspective, the broader direction remains intact. The trigger for a resumption of bearish pressure is 126.79.

BTP TECHS: (M1) Focus Is On Resistance

• RES 4: 151.33 1.618 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 3: 151.05 1.50 proj of the Feb 26 - Mar 3 - Mar 5 price swing
• RES 2: 150.69 76.4% retracement of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off
• RES 1: 150.39 High Mar 11
• PRICE: 150.21 @ Close Mar 25
• SUP 1: 149.39 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 148.97 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 148.36 Low Mar 18
• SUP 4: 148.20 61.8% retracement of the Feb 26 - Mar 11 rally

BTP futures traded higher again yesterday as the recovery from 148.36, Mar 18 low extends. Resistance is at 150.39, Mar 11 high with a pivotal level at 150.69, 76.4% of the Feb 12 - 26 sell-off. The recent focus has been on the likelihood of a bearish theme and while resistance remains intact, the S/T risk still appears skewed to the downside. A breach of 148.36 would reinforce this theme. On the upside, clearance of 150.39 would however instead be bullish.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 Techs: Corrective Phase

• RES 4: 3926.56 1.764 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 3: 3900.30 High May 2008
• RES 2: 3889.08 1.618 proj of Dec 21 - Jan 8 rally from Jan 28 low
• RES 1: 3874.91 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 3832.57 @ Close Mar 25
• SUP 1: 3784.09 Low Mar 25
• SUP 2: 3742.53 High Feb 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 3712.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 3679.35 Low Mar 8

EUROSTOXX 50 remains below recent highs. Short-term retracements are considered corrective with bullish conditions intact. The breach on Mar 8 of 3742.53, Feb 15 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. This also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 3889.08 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support has been defined at 3784.09, yesterday's low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: $71.38 - High Mar 5 and the key bull trigger
• RES 3: $70.03 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $68.15 - High Mar 18
• RES 1: $65.12 - High Mar 22 and a firm near-term resistance
• PRICE: $62.96 @ 06:48 Mar 26
• SUP 1: $60.27 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $58.56 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $57.09 - High Jan 13
• SUP 4: $56.07 - Low Feb 2

Brent crude futures gains are considered corrective with a bearish theme still intact. The break lower this week has confirmed a breach of trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and the 50-day EMA. This reinforces a bearish theme and opens $58.56 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, resistance is at $65.12, Mar 22 high. A move above this level is required to ease the current bearish pressure.

WTI TECHS: (K1) Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $67.79 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $66.44 - High Mar 15
• RES 2: $64.88 - High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: $62.04 - High Mar 22
• PRICE: $59.58 @ 06:57 Mar 26
• SUP 1: $57.25 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $55.65 - 38.2% retracement of the Nov 2 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $53.68 - High Jan 13
• SUP 4: $51.24 - Low Jan 22

WTI futures outlook remains bearish. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of trendline support drawn off the Nov 2, 2020 low and the 50-day EMA. The move lower suggests the current bearish cycle is likely to extend with attention on $55.65 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at $62.04, Mar 22 high. A break of this level would ease the current bearish pressure.

GOLD TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: $1816.0 - High Feb 23
• RES 3: $1805.7 - High Feb 25
• RES 2: $1775.6 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1755.5 - High Mar 18
• PRICE: $1733.2 @ 07:08 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $1719.3 - Low Mar 18
• SUP 2: $1699.3 - Low Mar 12
• SUP 3: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1671.0 - Low Jun 5, 2020

Gold is consolidating with support at $1719.3, Mar 18 low intact. A break lower would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open $1699.3, Mar 12 low and the trigger for a test of key support at $1676.9, Mar 8 low. From a short-term trend perspective, the recovery from $1676.9, Mar 8 low remains intact. Key near-term resistance and the bull trigger is at $1755.5, Mar 18 high. A break would open $1775.6, the 50-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Clears Support

• RES 4: $27.595 - High Feb 26
• RES 3: $27.081 - High Mar 1
• RES 2: $26.636 - High Mar 18 and firm near-term resistance
• RES 1: $25.826 - High Mar 23
• PRICE: $25.192 @ 07:23 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: $24.411 - Low Mar 25
• SUP 2: $24.057 - Jan 18 low and a key support
• SUP 3: $23.524 - Low Dec 7
• SUP 4: $22.591- Low Dec 12

Silver remains soft. The metal traded lower yesterday clearing support at $24.836, Mar 5 low. Despite the recovery from yesterday's session low, the outlook remains bearish and further downside is likely. A break of yesterday's $24.411 low would resume the downleg and open the Jan 18 low and a key support, at $24.057. Initial firm resistance is seen at $25.826, Mar 23 high. Key resistance has been defined at $26.636, Mar 18 high.