MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Breakout Extends

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Breakout Extends

• The S&P E-Minis short-term condition remains bearish. The contract recently week traded through its 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4446.83, and this has reinforced the current bearish threat. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a consolidation mode and still appear vulnerable. The recent pullback resulted in a move below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has also been breached.
• USDJPY continues to defy gravity and maintains this week’s extension of its current uptrend, trading to a fresh cycle high above 128.00. The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the bull cycle towards 129.44 next, a Fibonacci projection. EURUSD remains in a downtrend and last week’s low print of 1.0758 confirmed a resumption of the trend, following the break of the bear trigger at 1.0806, Mar 7 low. This puts prices at the lowest levels since mid-2020. AUDUSD remains vulnerable near-term following the recent pullback from 0.7661, Apr 5 high. Yesterday’s move lower confirmed a bearish start to this week’s trading session. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing current bearish conditions
• WTI futures are holding onto recent gains following the recovery from $92.93, the Apr 11 low. The contract has also recently found support at levels near the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $98.67 today. Gold traded higher Monday but has moved back into its recent tight range. The outlook is bullish, following the recent move above $1966.1, Mar 24 high. The breach highlighted a range breakout and suggests scope for an extension of current short-term gains.
• Bund futures are trading closer to recent lows. Conditions are unchanged and the primary trend remains down and moving average studies are in a bear mode. Furthermore, the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, remains intact. The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and the contract closed last week's session near its recent lows. Futures found resistance on Apr 4 at 122.35.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31
• RES 3: 1.1043 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.0989 High Apr 5
• RES 1: 1.0831/0922 High Apr 15 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0772 @ 06:25 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.0758 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0659 0.764 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0636 Low March 23 2020

EURUSD remains in a downtrend and last week’s low print of 1.0758 confirmed a resumption of the trend, following the break of the bear trigger at 1.0806, Mar 7 low. This puts prices at the lowest levels since mid-2020. The pair has also breached 1.0767, May 7 2020 low, and attention is on 1.0727 and the key 1.0636 level. For bulls, clearance of 1.1185 is needed to highlight a base and reinstate a bull theme. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0922.

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Softer Tone

• RES 4: 1.3355 High Mar 4
• RES 3: 1.3298 High Mar 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3209 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3097/3147 20-day EMA / High Apr 14
• PRICE: 1.2998 @ 06:34 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.2974 Low Apr 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD is softer this morning, extending the pullback from its recent high of 1.3147, the Apr 14 high. The pullback means the pair has failed to remain above the 20-day EMA - a bearish development. The primary trend remains down and a break of 1.2974, Apr 13 low, would end the recent corrective cycle and confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This would open 1.2933, the Nov 5 2020 low. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3147.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Cycle

• RES 4: 0.8512 High Mar 31
• RES 3: 0.8484 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8405/8435 High Apr 11 / High Apr 4
• RES 1: 0.8339/60 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8289 @ 06:42 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8151 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8117 High Apr 7 2016

A bearish cycle in EURGBP remains intact and last Thursday's move lower reinforced this condition. The cross has cleared 0.8296, the Mar 23 low as well as 0.8276, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 31 rally. This opens losses toward 0.8203, the Mar 7 low and the next bear trigger. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 0.8405, Apr 11 high. A break would represent a short-term bullish development. Initial resistance is seen at 0.8339.

USDJPY TECHS: Still Defying Gravity

• RES 4: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 130.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 129.44 0.764 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 128.23 Intraday high
• PRICE: 128.15 @ 06:15 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 126.98 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 125.87 Low Apr 15
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 123.58 20-day EMA

USDJPY continues to defy gravity and maintains this week’s extension of its current uptrend, trading to a fresh cycle high above 128.00. The break higher reinforces underlying bullish conditions and signals potential for a continuation of the bull cycle towards 129.44 next, a Fibonacci projection, and the psychological 130.00 handle. The trend condition is overbought, however despite this, sentiment remains firmly in the bull camp. Support is at 125.09.

EURJPY TECHS: Through Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 139.38 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 8 price swing
• RES 2: 139.00 High Aug 21 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 138.62 High Aug 25 2015
• PRICE: 138.14 @ 06:53 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 134.93/134.36 20-day EMA / Low Apr 8 and a key support
• SUP 2: 133.94 Low Mar 28
• SUP 3: 132.86 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 131.59 Low Mar 22

EURJPY is firmer this morning. The cross has traded through its key short-term resistance of 137.50/53, the Feb 2 ‘18 high and Mar 28 high respectively. This confirms a resumption of the current bull cycle that started Mar 7. The move higher also confirms the end of the recent corrective phase. The focus is on 138.62, the Aug 25 2015 high. On the downside, key short-term trend support has been defined at 134.36, the Apr 8 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 0.7661 High Apr 5 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.7593 Hgh Apr 6
• RES 2: 0.7519 High Apr 7
• RES 1: 0.7432/93 20-day EMA / Apr 12 high
• PRICE: 0.7373 @ 07:04 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 0.7343/40 Low Apr 18 / 50-DMA
• SUP 2: 0.7282 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Apr 5 climb
• SUP 3: 0.7283 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 0.7181 Low Mar 16

AUDUSD remains vulnerable near-term following the recent pullback from 0.7661, Apr 5 high. Yesterday’s move lower confirmed a bearish start to this week’s trading session. The pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs, reinforcing current bearish conditions and signalling scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 0.7282, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, resistance is at 0.7493, Apr 12 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Engulfing Candle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2783 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 3: 1.2711 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - Apr 5 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.2699 High Mar 17
• RES 1: 1.2644/76 High Apr 18 / High Apr 13 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2574 @ 08:06 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 1.2522 Low Apr 14
• SUP 2: 1.2479 Low Apr 6
• SUP 3: 1.2460/2403 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021

USDCAD remains below last week's high of 1.2676 (Apr 13). The pullback does threaten the recent bull theme and highlights the fact that price has so far failed to remain above the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2625 today. Note that last Wednesday’s session appears to be a bearish engulfing candle. If correct, this highlights a reversal. The focus is on 1.2522, Apr 14 low. On the upside, clearance of 1.2676 would be bullish.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Trend Conditions Remain Bearish

• RES 4: 161.81 High Mar 16
• RES 3: 160.31 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 156.19/57.86 High Apr 11 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 154.55 @ 05:01 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 154.27 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 154.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 153.48 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 152.65 Low Sep 1 2015 (cont)

Bunds futures are trading closer to recent lows. Conditions are unchanged and the primary trend remains down and moving average studies are in a bear mode. Furthermore, the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs, remains intact. 156.00 has been cleared and this opens the 154.00 handle next. Short-term gains are considered corrective. Key trend resistance is at 159.79, the Apr 4 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Bearish Trend Sequence Intact

• RES 4: 130.191 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 130.160 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a key trend resistance
• RES 1: 128.470/799 High Apr 8 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 127.650 @ 05:12 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 127.120 Low Apr 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 126.940 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 126.480 Low Jun 5 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 126.196 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing

Bobl futures remain in a clear downtrend and a fresh cycle low on Apr 12, confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend. The move lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving averages continue to point south. The focus is on a move towards 126.940, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 129.350, the Apr 4 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Downtrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 111.355 High Mar 21
• RES 3: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 110.855 High Apr 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.766 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.535 @ 05:21 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 110.295 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 110.188 0.382 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 110.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 109.983 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing

Schatz futures gains are considered corrective and trend conditions remain bearish. The Apr 12 cycle low of 110.295 confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for weakness towards 110.188 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 110.855, the Apr 4 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Path Of Least Resistance Still Down

• RES 4: 122.72 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 122.35 High Apr 4 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 120.37/96 20-day EMA / High Apr 6
• RES 1: 120.47 High Apr 8
• PRICE: 118.78 @ Close Apr 14
• SUP 1: 118.42 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 118.05 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 117.04 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015

The trend condition in Gilt futures remains bearish and the contract closed last week's session near its recent lows. Futures found resistance on Apr 4 at 122.35. The pullback means price failed to remain above the 20-day EMA and the recent cycle low prints confirm a resumption of the downtrend. The focus is on 118.05 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 122.35, Mar 9 high.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Southbound

• RES 4: 140.71 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 139.23 High Mar 23
• RES 2: 136.52/38.68 20-day EMA / High Mar 31 and key resistance
• RES 1: 136.12 High Apr 7
• PRICE: 133.50 @ Close Apr 14
• SUP 1: 132.69 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 132.61 Low Apr 22 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 131.85 0.618 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 130.24 0.764 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

BTP futures traded lower on Apr 12, extending the recent breach of support at 135.69, Mar 29 low. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and a continuation of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving averages remain in a bear mode. The focus is on 132.61 next, the Apr 22 2020 low (cont). Firm trend resistance is unchanged at 138.68, the Mar 31 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29and a key resistance
• RES 1: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• PRICE: 3749.00 @ 05:40 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 3684.00 Low Apr 12
• SUP 2: 3626.50 50.0% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3551.60 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3523.00 Low Mar 11

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a consolidation mode and still appear vulnerable. The recent pullback resulted in a move below the 20- and 50-day EMAs and support at 3735.00, the Mar 18 low, has also been breached. The move lower highlights a developing bearish threat. An extension lower would open 3626.50, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 3944.00, the Mar 29 high.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bearish Trend Conditions

• RES 4: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 3: 4631.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 4519.75/4588.75 High Apr 8 / High Apr 5
• RES 1: 4446.83 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 4398.75 @ 07:00 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: 4355.50 Low Apr 18
• SUP 2: 4321.07 61.8% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 3: 4247.89 76.4% retracement of the Mar 15 - Mar 29 rally
• SUP 4: 4129.50 Low Mar 15

The S&P E-Minis short-term condition remains bearish. The contract recently week traded through its 50-day EMA, which intersects at 4446.83, and this has reinforced the current bearish threat. The move below 4400.00 signals scope for weakness towards 4321.07 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been established at 4519.75, Apr 8 high A break would ease the bearish threat.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M2) Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: $128.04 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $125.40 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 2: $119.74 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $114.84 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $112.97 @ 07:06 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $106.63 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $101.74/97.57 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $94.61 - Low Mar 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.58 - Low Feb 25

The outlook for Brent futures remains positive, with prices holding onto recent gains and attention is on resistance at $119.74. The contract has bounced well after challenging the key support recently at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $101.94. For bears, a clear break of this average would suggest scope for a deeper decline and open $94.61, the Mar 16 low. On the upside, clearance of $119.74 would strengthen bullish conditions.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Bull Cycle Intact

• RES 4: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $116.64/118.34 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $112.93 - High Mar 28
• RES 1: $109.81 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $107.75 @ 08:05 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $102.62 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $98.67/92.93 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 11
• SUP 3: $92.20 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $88.49 - Low Feb 25

WTI futures are holding onto recent gains following the recovery from $92.93, the Apr 11 low. The contract has also recently found support at levels near the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $98.67 today. A resumption of strength would open $116.64, the Mar 24 high and a key near-term resistance. Initial support lies at the 20-day EMA, at $102.62. Key support has been defined at $92.93. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: $2059.2 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $2007.9 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 2: $2001.6 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 8 - 29 downleg
• RES 1: $1998.4 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $1975.5 @ 07:22 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $1951.6/24.2 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1890.2 - Low Mar 29 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 4: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally

Gold traded higher Monday but has moved back into its recent tight range. The outlook is bullish, following the recent move above $1966.1, Mar 24 high. The breach highlighted a range breakout and suggests scope for an extension of current short-term gains. The focus is on $2001.6 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support has been defined at $1890.2, Mar 29 low. A break of this support would reinstate a bearish threat.

SILVER TECHS: Clears Resistance

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $26.222 - High Apr 18
• PRICE: $25.850 @ 08:23 BST Apr 19
• SUP 1: $24.750/23.974 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 29 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $23.173 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $23.082 - Low Feb 15

Silver resistance $25.847, the Mar 24 high, has been breached, reinforcing current bullish conditions. This also marks an extension from $23.974, the Mar 29 low and also highlights the fact that the 50-day EMA provided support recently. The average intersects at $24.750 today. A continuation higher would open $26.943, the Mar 8 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support lies at $24.750.