MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Resumes Primary Uptrend

Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Resumes Primary Uptrend

• Despite this week’s pullback, S&P E-Minis are still trading closer to recent highs. The contract last week tested the 50-day EMA, at 4178.95 today. A clear breach of this EMA is needed to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish short-term tone and are trading closer to recent highs and above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high.
• USDJPY has resumed its primary uptrend - the pair has cleared resistance at 131.35, May 9 high. The move higher maintains the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and with moving average studies pointing north, indications are that the USD has further to go. GBPUSD traded lower but has found support at 1.2431 - for now. Attention is on a key resistance at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2690 today. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen short-term bullish conditions. EURJPY has cleared the Y140.00 handle. This has strengthened bullish conditions and has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. Moving average studies also point north, reinforcing current bullish conditions.
• Despite the latest pullback, recent gains in Gold suggest potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1874.3 where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term upleg. Recent gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract last week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and has paved the way for an extension higher.
• Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend. Price has cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low and a recent bear trigger. The contract has also breached the 150.00 handle. This highlights a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Gilt futures started the week on a softer note and the contract gapped lower at the open Monday. The move confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that started May 19.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trading Below Its Bear Channel Top

• RES 4: 1.0954 High Apr 11
• RES 3: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 1: 1.0760/87 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High May 30
• PRICE: 1.0679 @ 06:10 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 1.0627/0533 Low Jun 1 / Low May 20
• SUP 2: 1.0461 Low May 18 and19
• SUP 3: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support

EURUSD attention remains on a key short-term resistance and the top of a bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The channel resistance intersects at 1.0760 today and a break is required to strengthen bullish conditions and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. Note that the primary trend remains down. An extension lower, with channel resistance intact, would reinforce a bearish theme and open 1.0533 initially, May 20 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.2772 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 1.2690 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.2667 High May 27 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.2590 High Jun 3
• PRICE: 1.2466 @ 06:29 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 1.2431 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2317 Low May 17
• SUP 3: 1.2277 76.4% retracement of the May 13 - 27 upleg
• SUP 4: 1.2156 Low May 13 and the bear trigger

GBPUSD traded lower but has found support at 1.2431 - for now. Attention is on a key resistance at the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2690 today. Clearance of this average is required to strengthen short-term bullish conditions. The broader trend direction is down though and the trigger for a resumption of the downtrend is 1.2156, May 13 low. A deeper pullback would expose 1.2317 initially, the May 17 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Key Resistance Appears Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8590 High Jun 6
• PRICE: 0.8575 @ 07:07 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 0.8508/8433 20-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP traded higher Monday to deliver a print above 0.8587, May 24 high. This maintains the current bullish theme and attention is on 0.8619, May 12 high and the next hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend that started Mar 7. Initial support is at 0.8508, the 20-day EMA ahead of a firmer short-term at 0.8433, May 23 low. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8393, May 17 low and a bear trigger.

USDJPY TECHS: Fresh Cycle Highs As The Bull Trend Resumes

• RES 4: 135.15 High Jan 31 2002 and a congestion area
• RES 3: 134.48 1.236 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 133.84 High Apr 1 2002 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• PRICE: 12.85 @ 06:43 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 130.43/128.94 Low Jun 6 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 126.87/36 50-day EMA / Low May 24 and key support
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY has resumed its primary uptrend - the pair has cleared resistance at 131.35, May 9 high. The move higher maintains the broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and with moving average studies pointing north, indications are that the USD has further to go. The focus is on 134.48, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is seen at 128.94, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Continues To Climb

• RES 4: 144.58 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 3: 144.04 Low Jan 1 2015
• RES 2: 142.78 High Jan 6 2015
• RES 1: 142.30 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• PRICE: 141.78 @ 06:54 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 140.00 High Apr 21 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 138.32/37.55 High May 9 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 136.10/133.93 50-day EMA / Low May 19
• SUP 4: 133.37 100-dma

EURJPY continues to climb, having started the week on a firm note. The cross has cleared the Y140.00 handle. This has strengthened bullish conditions and has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. Moving average studies also point north, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The focus is on 142.30 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is seen at 140.00.

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support

• RES 4: 0.7465 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7400 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7283 High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7175 @ 06:14 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 0.7139/7036 20-day EMA / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.6950 Low May 18
• SUP 3: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020

AUDUSD remains above 0.7139, the 20-day EMA. S/T conditions are bullish. The pair has traded above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This strengthens current conditions and signal scope for a climb towards 0.7343, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the current bull cycle is still considered corrective. A break of the 20-day EMA would threaten the recent recovery. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.2896 High May 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2686/2724 High Jun 2 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2612 @ 06:57 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 1.2535 Low Jun 6
• SUP 2: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.2430 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and key support

USDCAD maintains a softer tone and is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has shown below 1.2562, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 uptrend. A clear breach of this level would strengthen current bearish conditions and open 1.2459, Apr 21 low and potentially 1.2403 further out, the Apr 5 low and a key support. Key short-term resistance is seen at 1.2724, the 20-day EMA.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Remains In A Clear Downtrend

• RES 4: 158.87 High May 12
• RES 3: 155.27 High May 26
• RES 2: 152.68 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 150.97/152.34 Low May 9 / Low May 18
• PRICE: 148.93 @ 05:47 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 148.83 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 148.23 Low Jun 10, 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 148.02 1.382 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 147.35 1.50 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend. Price has cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low and a recent bear trigger. The contract has also breached the 150.00 handle. This highlights a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 148.23 next, the Jun 10 2015 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is at 152.68, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 126.710 High May 26
• RES 3: 125.492 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 125.380 Low May 18
• RES 1: 124.490 / 124.990 High Jun 3 / High Jun 2
• PRICE: 123.780 @ 05:50 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 123.740 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 123.570 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 123.10 Low Sep 18 2013
• SUP 4: 123.00 Round number support

Bobl futures started the week on a softer note, resuming its bear leg once again. Price last week traded through former support at 124.840, May 6 low. Fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on the 123.760 next, the Oct 16 2013 low (cont). Initial firm resistance is seen at 125.380, the May 18 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 110.070 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 109.850 High May 26
• RES 2: 109.502 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 109.180/445 High Jun 3 / Low May 18
• PRICE: 108.970 @ 05:44 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 108.970 Low Jun 6 and intraday low
• SUP 2: 108.912 1.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 108.839 1.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 108.747 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Schatz futures remain soft, and the contract resumed its primary downtrend Monday. Support at 109.330, the May 6 low, has recently been cleared and this signals potential for a continuation lower with the focus on the 108.912 next, a Fibonacci projection. The break lower maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs - the definition of a downtrend. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 109.180, the Jun 3 high.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bearish Price Conditions

• RES 4: 118.63 High May 24 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 118.51 High May 26
• RES 2: 117.49 High May 31
• RES 1: 116.20 High Jun 1
• PRICE: 114.70 @ Close Jun 6
• SUP 1: 114.55 2.00 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 114.08 2.236 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 114.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 113.79 2.382 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures started the week on a softer note and the contract gapped lower at the open Monday. The move confirms a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that started May 19. This also maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The contract has traded below the 115.00 handle, and this opens 114.55, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is seen at 116.20, high Jun 1.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bearish Price Structure

• RES 4: 129.00 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 127.79 High May 26
• RES 2: 125.48 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 123.86/125.13 High Jun 2 / Low May 24
• PRICE: 121.56 @ Close Jun 6
• SUP 1: 121.52 Low Jun 6
• SUP 2: 120.96 1.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 120.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 119.14 2.236 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing

The primary trend condition in BTP futures is bearish and the contract traded lower once again Monday. Last week’s bear leg confirmed a break of 123.88, May 9 low and the bear trigger. This also confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 122.00 has been breached, the focus is on the 120.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance is at 123.86 Jun 2 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 2: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 1: 3850.00 High May 30
• PRICE: 3806.00 @ 06:55 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: 3736.70 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3628.00 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 3576.00/3466.00 Low May 19 / Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally

EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a bullish short-term tone and are trading closer to recent highs and above the 50-day EMA. Attention is on resistance at 3883.00, Apr 21 high high and a key resistance at 3944.00, Mar 29 high. A break of the latter would strengthen current bullish conditions. Firm short-term support has been defined at 3576.00, May 19 low. A reversal lower would signal a resumption of the broader downtrend.

E-MINI S&P (M2): 50-Day EMA Marks The Next Key Resistance

• RES 4: 4509.00 High Apr 21
• RES 3: 4393.25 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 4303.50 High Apr 26/28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 4178.95/4202.25 50-day EMA / High May 31
• PRICE: 4097 25 @ 07:05 BST June 7
• SUP 1: 3960.50/3807.50 Low May 26 / Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3787.74 2.618 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3747.52 2.764 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing

Despite this week’s pullback, S&P E-Minis are still trading closer to recent highs. The contract last week tested the 50-day EMA, at 4178.95 today. A clear breach of this EMA is needed to strengthen bullish conditions and signal scope for a climb towards a key resistance at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high. Recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend is down. A strong reversal lower would refocus attention on 3807.50, the bear trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Eyeing Its Bull Trigger

• RES 4: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $124.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $123.49 - 1.50 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $121.95 - High Jun 6
• PRICE: $119.83 @ 07:11 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: $113.27 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $112.45 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 3: $108.00 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures last week cleared 120.80, May 31 high. Trend conditions are bullish and price maintains a bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Scope is seen for an extension towards the contract high of 124.42, Mar 7 high. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $113.27, is seen as initial support. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Northbound

• RES 4: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $123.35 - 1.236 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 2: $122.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $120.99 - High Jun 6
• PRICE: $119.41 @ 07:46 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: $111.72 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: $100.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $96.93 - Low May 11

WTI futures remain in an uptrend. The contract last week breached resistance at $116.43, the Mar 7 high and the former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and has paved the way for an extension higher. The contract has also traded above the psychological $120.00 handle. A clear break of this level would strengthen trend conditions. On the downside, firm support is seen at $111.72, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Trading Below The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1919.9 - High Apr 29 and key resistance
• RES 3: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 2: $1874.3 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $1874.1 - High May 24
• PRICE: $1840.4 @ 07:25 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: $1828.6 - Low Jun 1
• SUP 2: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

Despite the latest pullback, recent gains in Gold suggest potential for a test of the 50-day EMA at $1874.3 where a break is required to signal scope for a stronger short-term upleg. Recent gains are still considered corrective though and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on the May 16, $1787.0 low. This is the bear trigger where a break would resume the downtrend that started Mar 8.

SILVER TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.808 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.483 - High Jun 3
• PRICE: $21.949 @ 07:59 BST Jun 7
• SUP 1: $21.435/20.464 - Low Jun 1 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver on Friday, briefly tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break above this level is required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.808. For bears, a resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, the May 13 low. Initial support to watch is $21.435, the Jun 1 low.