MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USDJPY Resumes Uptrend
Price Signal Summary – USDJPY Resumes Uptrend
- S&P E-Minis traded lower yesterday and the contract remains below its recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5831.56. Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. For now, a bear threat remains present. The contract traded sharply lower on Oct 15 and has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4947.56. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal.
- GBPUSD traded lower again, on Wednesday, extending the current bear cycle and a bearish theme remains intact. The move down this week has resulted in a breach of 1.2959, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. USDJPY traded to a fresh cycle high on Wednesday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 16. Price has this week cleared the 50.0% retracement of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. The move higher sets the scene for an extension towards 153.40. A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair traded lower Wednesday. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This exposed 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support, which has been pierced.
- Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. This week’s extension reinforces the bull theme. WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows. However, a bearish theme remains intact following last week’s sell-off. A resumption of weakness would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support.
- Bund futures are trading their most recent lows. Tuesday’s move down resulted in a breach of support at 132.75, the Oct 10 low and a short-term bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Oct 1. A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery between Oct 10 - 18, appears to have been a correction. Note that the recent recovery allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0975 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0924 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0838 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 1.0793 @ 05:55 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 1.0761 Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
The trend needle in EURUSD continues to point south and the latest sell-off reinforces this theme. 1.0778, the Aug 1 low and a key support, has been breached. The break strengthens the downtrend and opens 1.0746 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0924 the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.
GBPUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.3015/3076 High Oct 18 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2928 @ 06:08 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 1.2908 Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 1.2890 Low Aug 18
- SUP 3: 1.2846 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2799 Low Aug 15
GBPUSD traded lower again, on Wednesday, extending the current bear cycle and a bearish theme remains intact. The move down this week has resulted in a breach of 1.2959, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Sep 25 bull leg. An extension lower would open 1.2890, the Aug 18 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is 1.3076, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA is required to signal a reversal.
EURGBP TECHS: Remains Below Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8464 High Sep 11 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8453 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.8354/8434 20-day EMA / High Oct 3 and reversal trigger
- PRICE: 0.8347 @ 06:23 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 0.8295 Low Oct 18
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP continues to trade above last week’s low and moved higher yesterday. The recovery from the Oct 18 intraday low highlights a possible early reversal signal and if correct, a short-term base. However, the trend condition for now remains bearish and a resumption of weakness would open 0.8276, a Fibonacci projection. Initial resistance to watch is 0.8354, the 20-day EMA. Key trend resistance is unchanged at 0.8434, the Oct 3 high.
USDJPY TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: 155.22 High Jul 30
- RES 3: 153.66 1.764 proj of the Sep 16 - 27 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: 153.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 3 - Sep 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 153.19 High Oct 23
- PRICE: 152.37 @ 06:43 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 150.50 Low Oct 22
- SUP 2: 148.64/147.77 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 145.92 Low Oct 4
- SUP 4: 143.43/141.65 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 30
USDJPY traded to a fresh cycle high on Wednesday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend that started Sep 16. Price has this week cleared the 50.0% retracement of the downleg posted off the July 3rd high. The move higher sets the scene for an extension towards 153.40, the 61.8% retracement. Note that moving average studies have crossed and highlight a bull-mode set-up. Initial firm support to watch is 147.77, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Has Cleared Resistance
- RES 4: 168.01 High Jul 26
- RES 3: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 2: 166.53 High Jul 31
- RES 1: 165.02 High Oct 23
- PRICE: 164.40 @ 06:57 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 161.85/161.01 Low Oct 17 / Low Oct 4
- SUP 2: 158.11 Low Sep 30
- SUP 3: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / 16
- SUP 4: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
EURJPY traded higher Wednesday and the cross is holding on to its gains. The rally this week has confirmed a breach of two important resistance points; 163.49, the Sep 27 high and 163.89, the Aug 15 high. This highlights a potential stronger reversal. 164.92, 50.0% of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg, has been pierced. A clear break would open 166.53, the Jul 31 high. Initial firm support to watch is 161.85, the Oct 17 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Support
- RES 4: 0.6942 High Sep 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6852/6889 High Oct 4 / 3
- RES 2: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 1: 0.6727 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6649 @ 07:56 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 0.6622/14 Low Sep 11 and key support / Low Oct 23
- SUP 2: 0.6576 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6508 Low Aug 8
- SUP 4: 0.6490 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull leg
A bear cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair traded lower Wednesday. Price has recently breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This exposed 0.6622, the Sep 11 low and a key support, which has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 0.6576, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is at 0.6942, the Sep 30 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6727, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4066 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.3946 High Aug 5 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.3863 High Oct 23
- PRICE: 1.3826 @ 08:01 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 1.3747/3715 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3659 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3567 Low Oct 7
- SUP 4: 1.3473/3420 Low Oct 2 / Low Sep 25 and the bear trigger
The USDCAD trend outlook remains bullish and the pair is building on recent gains. Price has breached 1.3822, 76.4% of the Aug 5 - Sep 25 bear leg. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bullish theme and open 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3715, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective and allow an overbought condition to unwind.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 134.88 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 134.48 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 134.25 High Oct 16 / 18 and key resistance
- RES 1: 133.76 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 132.86 @ 05:35 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 132.58 Low Oct 22
- SUP 2 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 3: 131.66 Low Jul 26
- SUP 4: 130.80 1.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 10 -16 price swing
Bund futures are trading their most recent lows. Tuesday’s move down resulted in a breach of support at 132.75, the Oct 10 low and a short-term bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Oct 1. This opens 132.25, the Jul 29 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 134.25, the Oct 16 / 18 high. A breach of this hurdle is required to signal a reversal. Initial resistance is at 133.76, the 50-day EMA.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 120.190 High Oct 3
- RES 3: 119.875 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 119.635 50.0% retracement of the Oct 1 - 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 119.295/119.620 20-day EMA / High Oct 18, key resistance
- PRICE: 19.030 @ 05:39 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 118.620 Low Oct 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 118.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 117.789 123.6% retrace projection of the Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull leg
Recent gains in Bobl futures are considered corrective and this week’s sell-off has reinforced this theme. The move down signals the end of the Oct 10 - 18 correction and suggests scope for a test of key support at 118.620, the Oct 10 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear trend. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 119.620, the Oct 18 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Monitoring Resistance Around The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 107.157 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.110 High Oct 4
- RES 2: 107.047 61.8% retracement of the Oct 1 / 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.025 High Oct 18 and key short-term resistance
- PRICE: 106.930 @ 05:58 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 106.760/580 Low Oct 22 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 106.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 3: 106.328 123.6% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 106.209 138.2% retracement proj of Sep 3 - Oct 1 bull cycle
The recent recovery in Schatz futures is considered corrective - for now. However, the contract has traded above its 20-day EMA, at 106.889. An extension higher would open 107.047 next, a Fibonacci retracement. For bears, the sell-off earlier this week highlights an early reversal. A resumption of bearish price action would refocus attention on 106.580, the Oct 10 low and the bear trigger.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Delivers Print Below Key Support
- RES 4: 100.19 76.4% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 10 bear leg
- RES 3: 99.47 High Oct and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 98.68 50.0% retracement of the Sep 17 - Oct 10 bear leg
- RES 1: 97.46/98.10 20-day EMA / High Oct 18 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 95.83 08:12 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 95.70 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 95.47 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 94.90 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 94.99 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 30 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains present and the latest recovery between Oct 10 - 18 has been a correction. Today’s gap lower has resulted in a print below key support at 95.83, the Oct 10 low. A clear break of this support would resume the downtrend that started Sep 17, and open 94.47, a Fibonacci projection. Key resistance is at 98.10, the Oct 18 high. Initial resistance is at 97.46, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Reversal Threat
- RES 4: 123.40 3.500 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 123.12 3.382 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 1: 122.62 High Oct 1 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.78 @ Close Oct 23
- SUP 1: 119.97 Low Oct 11 and key support
- SUP 2: 119.58 38.2% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 118.64 50.0% retracement of the Jun 11 - Oct 1 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.34 Low Jul 26
Monday’s sharp sell-off in BTP futures highlights a reversal of the recent Oct 11 - 18 recovery. It also signals a potential bearish trend threat and exposes the key support at 119.97, the Oct 11 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the recent uptrend and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance has been defined at 122.62, the Oct 1 high. A breach of this level is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 5256.00 1.00 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 5200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 5138.24 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 5008.00/5106.00 High Oct 21 / High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 4937.00 @ 06:21 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 4914.00 Low Oct 16
- SUP 2: 4884.06 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4815.50 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 30 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4757.00 Low Sep 6 / 10 and key support
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading closer to their recent lows. For now, a bear threat remains present. The contract traded sharply lower on Oct 15 and has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 4947.56. A clear break of this average would undermine a recent bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 4884.06, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 5106.00, the Sep 30 high. A break of it resumes the uptrend.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 6012.75 1.00 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 6000.00 Psychological handle
- RES 2: 5961.00 1.00 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 5927.25 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 5852.25 @ 07:20 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: 5801.00/5742.01 Low Oct 23 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5724.00 Low Oct 2
- SUP 3: 5675.25 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 13
S&P E-Minis traded lower yesterday and the contract remains below its recent highs. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and the uptrend remains intact. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5831.56. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5745.75, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 5961.00, a Fibonacci projection.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (Z4) Bearish Theme Intact
- RES 4: $85.54 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $83.02 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $81.16/47 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.32 - High Oct 22
- PRICE: $75.74 @ 06:00 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: $72.50 - Low Oct 18
- SUP 2: $69.91/68.29 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $67.73 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $66.12 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
A bearish tone in Brent futures remains intact despite this week’s recovery. A resumption of weakness would expose support at $69.91, the Oct 1 low, and $68.29, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would instead refocus attention on the key resistance at $81.16, the Oct 7 high. Clearance of this level resumes the recent uptrend. Initial resistance is at $76.32, the Oct 22 high.
WTI TECHS: (Z4) Recent Bounce Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $80.95 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $78.81 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $75.45/77.70 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.09 - High Oct 22
- PRICE: $71.56 @ 07:14 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: $68.17 - Low Oct 21
- SUP 2: $65.99/64.16 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $63.91 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
WTI futures have recovered from their recent lows. However, a bearish theme remains intact following last week’s sell-off. A resumption of weakness would threaten the recent bullish theme and expose $65.99, the Oct 1 low, and $64.16, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.70, the Oct 8 high. Clearance of this level would resume to the recent uptrend.
GOLD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $2785.3 - 3.382 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: $2767.1 - 3.236 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2758.5 - High Oct 23
- PRICE: $2730.0 @ 07:21 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: $2685.6 - High Sep 26
- SUP 2: $2666.6 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2638.2 - Low Oct 15
- SUP 4: $2596.3 - 50-day EMA
Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and price is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains resulted in a break of $2685.6, the Sep 26 high, confirming a resumption of the primary uptrend. This week’s extension reinforces the bull theme. Sights are on $2767.1 next, a Fibonacci projection point, ahead of the $2800.0 handle. Firm support is $2666.6, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: $36.050 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 2: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 1: $34.903 - High Oct 23
- PRICE: $34.208 @ 08:07 BST Oct 24
- SUP 1: $32.963 - High Oct 4
- SUP 2: $32.133/30.975 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: $29.682 - Trendline support drawn from the Aug 8 low
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and last Friday’s strong rally plus this week’s extension, reinforce the current trend set-up and confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Short-term weakness is considered corrective. Scope is seen for a climb towards $35.167, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend for now. Initial firm support lies at $32.133, the 20-day EMA.