MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Bounce Deemed Corrective
Price Signal Summary – WTI Bounce Deemed Corrective
- A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Wednesday highlights a possible short-term top. The move down has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would open 5811.65, a Fibonacci retracement level. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the latest pullback highlights a corrective cycle and the contract is again trading lower, today. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4897.73.
- A clear bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The pair has pierced key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446 next. USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and yesterday’s gains reinforce current conditions. Thursday’s breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and bull trigger, strengthens bullish conditions. The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
- Gold traded lower Wednesday. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract has traded lower this week. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for a move towards 133.22. A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 1.0937 High Nov 5 / 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.0825 High Nov 7
- RES 2: 1.0637 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0509/0630 20-day EMA / High Dec 06
- PRICE: 1.0367 @ 06:07 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.0344 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 1.0335 Low Nov 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.0311 1.382 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.0258 1.500 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD traded sharply lower Wednesday, reinforcing a bearish theme. The pair is trading at this week’s lows and the sell-off paves the way for a move towards key support at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low and bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of downtrend and open 1.0311, a Fibonacci projection. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0509, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Pierces Key Support
- RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and a short-term bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.2609/1.2729 Low Dec 13 / High Dec 17
- PRICE: 1.2488 @ 06:22 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.2476 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
- SUP 3. 1.2400 Round number support
- SUP 4: 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend
A clear bearish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and this week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The pair has pierced key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446 next, the May 9 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high.
EURGBP TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 3: 0.8376 High Nov 19 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.8356 High Nov 27
- RES 1: 0.8320 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8297 @ 06:44 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.8225/23 Low Dec 11 / 19
- SUP 2: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
- SUP 3: 0.8200 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.8188 1.00 proj of the Oct 31 - Nov 11 - 19 price swing
EURGBP traded higher yesterday however, for now, the cross continues to trade below resistance at 0.8320, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. The trend direction remains down and support at 0.8225, the Dec 11 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open the major support at 0.8203, the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range.
USDJPY TECHS: Clears The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj f the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 157.93 Intraday high
- PRICE: 156.82 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 155.89/153.05 High Nov 20 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 151.96 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06
- SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
USDJPY bullish conditions remain intact and yesterday’s gains reinforce current conditions. Thursday’s breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high and bull trigger, strengthens bullish conditions. The move higher has confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 high. Initial firm support is 153.05, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 3: 165.04 High Nov 15 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.21 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 163.80 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 162.72 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 160.83/159.82 20-day EMA / Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 158.67/157.87 Low Dec 11 / 09
- SUP 3: 156.18 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
Thursday’s strong gains in EURJPY reinforce the current bullish condition. The cross has traded through Tuesday’s 162.48 high, to confirm a resumption of the recovery that started on Dec 3. A continuation higher would signal scope for an extension towards 164.21, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Dec 3 bear leg. Key short-term support has been defined at 159.82, the Dec 18 low. A break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6240 @ 07:54 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4385 @ 08:00 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 137.72 High Oct 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 137.28 High Oct 2
- RES 2: 136.52/137.18 High Dec 6 / 2 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.11/136.01 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 133.88 @ 05:49 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 133.72 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2 133.62 Low Nov 22
- SUP 3: 133.22 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 132.95 Low Nov 18
The current bearish cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the contract has traded lower this week. 133.98, 61.8% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this price point would signal scope for a move towards 133.22, the 76.4% retracement level. First key resistance to watch is 135.11, the 20-day EMA. A move above this level would signal a possible reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Bear Leg Remains Intact
- RES 4: 119.813 2.382 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 119.674 2.236 proj of the Nov 6 - 12 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 119.280/119.480 High Dec 4 and 5 / High Dec 2
- RES 1: 118.507/119.130 20-day EMA / High Dec 11
- PRICE: 118.020 @ 05:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 117.850 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 117.723 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 117.550 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 117.350 76.4% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle
The current bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact. Price has recently cleared the 20-day EMA signalling scope for a continuation near-term. This week’s move lower also reinforces a bear theme. An extension would open 117.723 next, a Fibonacci retracement. The first key resistance to watch is 118.507, the 20-day EMA. A break of it would highlight a possible reversal and open 119.130, the Nov 7 low.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Remains Intact
- RES 4: 107.592 1.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 107.505 1.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - 26 price swing
- RES 2: 107.480 High Dec 2 / 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 107.157/365 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: 106.985 @ 06:28 GMT Dec 19
- SUP 1: 106.960 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 106.908 1.236 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 3: 106.854 1.382 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
- SUP 4: 106.810 1.500 proj of the Dec 2 - 6 - 12 price swing
The current bear cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest bear extension reinforces current conditions. The 107.00 handle has been cleared and this highlights potential for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 106.908 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 107.157, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would highlight a potential reversal.
GILT TECHS: (H5) Impulsive Bear Wave Remains Intact
- RES 4: 94.47 20-day EMA
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 92.84 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 92.42 @ Close Dec 19
- SUP 1: 91.87 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 91.73 4.236 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 91.73, a 4.236 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.84, the Dec 19 low and a gap high on the daily chart.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.48 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 120.48 @ Close Dec 19
- SUP 1: 120.10 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and yesterday’s gap lower highlights potential for a continuation near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and Thursday’s move opens 119.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 121.48, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 5106.00 High Sep 30 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 5084.00 High Oct 15
- RES 2: 4974.00/5014.00 High Dec 18 / 9 and key resistance
- RES 1: 4912.93 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 4845.00 @ 06:26 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 4827.00 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 4819.33 61.8% retracement of the Nov 19 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4773.44 76.4% retracement of the Nov 19 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4745.00 Low Nov 29
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the latest pullback highlights a corrective cycle and the contract is again trading lower, today. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA, at 4897.73. A continuation lower would open 4819.33, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 5014.00, the Dec 9 high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the recent uptrend.
E-MINI S&P: (H5) Bearish Short-Term Outlook
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6074.86 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 6008.80 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 5919.50 @ 07:19 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 5901.75 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5876.25 Low Nov 6
- SUP 3: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
A sharp sell-off in the S&P E-Minis contract on Wednesday highlights a possible short-term top. The move down has resulted in a breach of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A continuation lower would open 5811.65, a Fibonacci retracement level. Note that support at 5921.00, the Nov 19 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Initial resistance is at 6008.80, the 50-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (G5) Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $84.32 - High Jul 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $81.83 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $79.98/80.44 - High Oct 7 / 76.4% of Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $75.79 - High Nov 5
- PRICE: $72.49 @ 07:09 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: $69.95 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $69.52/67.89 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $66.70 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $64.34 - 2.000 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
The outlook in Brent futures remains bearish and moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the bear leg would open $69.52 the Oct 1 low, and $67.89, the Sep 10 low and a key support. For bulls, a clearer reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance at $79.98, the Oct 7 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $75.79, the Nov 5 high.
WTI TECHS: (G5) Recent Bounce Appears Corrective
- RES 4: $79.59 - High Jul 5
- RES 3: $77.41 - High Jul 18
- RES 2: $74.27/76.41 - High Oct 10 / 8 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.97 - High Nov 7
- PRICE: $69.04 @ 07:15 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: $66.01 - Low Oct 29
- SUP 2: $65.57/63.73 - Low Oct 1 / Low Sep 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $62.85 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $71.97, the Nov 7 high.
GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2650.4/2726.2 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: $2606.8 @ 07:21 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: $2583.6 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
Gold traded lower Wednesday. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the latest sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2645.0, the 20-day EMA. A breach of it would be positive for bulls.
SILVER TECHS: Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $31.000/32.338 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 12
- PRICE: $29.039 @ 08:05 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and this week’s move lower reinforces the trend condition. The metal has breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.