MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Dips Remain Corrective, Bull Trend Intact

Price Signal Summary – WTI Dips Remain Corrective, Bull Trend Intact

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis remain below recent highs following Tuesday reversal lower. The contract is back below the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4407.78 today. A deeper sell-off would highlight a bearish threat and the risk of a pullback towards the key support at 4293.75, Sep 20 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures reversed sharply lower Tuesday removing a recent bullish theme. The move exposes key support at 3974.00, Sep 20 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear trend and signal scope for weakness towards 3962.50 and below
• In FX, EURUSD is bearish. The pair extended losses through key support Wednesday at 1.1664, Aug 20 low, slipping to fresh 2021 lows. The move lower confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend that has been in place since May 25. GBPUSD remained under acute pressure again. This opens losses toward levels not seen since late December last year, with 1.3354 the next target. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3572, Jul 20 low. Yesterday's rally in USDJPY confirmed a clean break of 111.66, Jul 2 high and bull trigger. This marks a resumption of the broader bull cycle that started Jan 6 and opens 112.23 next, Feb 20, 2020 high.
• On the commodity front, the Gold confirms a resumption of the current bear phase that started Sep 3. The yellow metal has breached $1724.5, 76.4% of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. The break of this level strengthens a bearish case and opens the key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. WTI dips are considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. Last week's break of $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on $78.24 next, a Fibonacci projection with scope seen for a climb towards $80.00 further out.
• In FI, a bearish outlook in Bunds remains intact following recent weakness that marked an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 169.46 next, a Fibonacci projection and beyond. Gilt futures traded sharply lower again Tuesday as the current bear cycle extends. The contract did find support though at that day's low. The outlook remains bearish following last week's sell-off and breach of 126.84 support, Sep 17 low. Treasuries remain in a downtrend. Scope is seen for weakness towards 131-03+, Jun 25 low. Gains are also considered corrective.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Resumes Broader Bear Cycle

• RES 4: 1.1909 High Jul 30 / Sep 03 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.1824/46 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Sep 14
• RES 2: 1.1755/87 High Sep 22 / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1664/1738 Low Aug 20 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1606 @ 06:04 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 1.1581 Low Jul 24, 2020
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1371 Low Jul 16

EURUSD is bearish. The pair extended losses through key support Wednesday at 1.1664, Aug 20 low, slipping to fresh 2021 lows. The move lower confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend that has been in place since May 25 and maintains a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 1.1493 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance is at 1.1755, Sep 22 high. Clearance of this level is required to signal a S/T base.

GBPUSD TECHS: Under Pressure

• RES 4: 1.3958 High Aug 4
• RES 3: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3695/3765 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3572/3602 Low Jul 20 / Low Aug 20
• PRICE: 1.3449 @ 06:14 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 1.3412 Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: 1.3380 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3354 Low Dec 23, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3277 61.8% retracement of the Sep '20 - Jan bull phase

GBPUSD remained under acute pressure again Wednesday following Tuesday's break lower and the breach of a number of key supports. The triangle base at 1.3637, drawn from the Jul 20 low has been cleared, and the pair has fallen through 1.3462, 50.0% of the Sep '20 - Jan bull phase. This opens losses toward levels not seen since late December last year, with 1.3354 the next target. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3572, Jul 20 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8721 High Apr 26
• RES 3: 0.8703 1.236 proj of the Aug 10 - Sep 7 - Sep 16 rally
• RES 2: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8658 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 0.8629 @ 06:20 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 0.8564/26 50-day EMA / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 0.8501 Low Sep 16
• SUP 3: 0.8484/89 Low Aug 16 / 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8450 Low Aug 10

EURGBP rallied sharply higher Tuesday and the cross cleared resistance at 0.8613/14, the Sep 22 / Sep 7 high. Markets added to these gains Wednesday. Scope is seen for a stronger short-term rally and the break higher has exposed resistance at 0.8670, Jul 20 high and the next important near-term resistance. On the downside, Tuesday's intraday low of 0.8526, while far off, is support. A break would reinstate a bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Clean Break Of Resistance

• RES 4: 112.57 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 112.40 High Apr 24, 2019
• RES 2: 112.23 High Feb 20, 2020
• RES 1: 112.05 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 111.92 @ 16:48 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 110.80 High Aug 11
• SUP 2: 110.07/109.11 50-day EMA / Low Aug 16 and Sep 15
• SUP 3: 108.72 Low Aug 04 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108.56 Low May 25

USDJPY strengthened further Wednesday, reinforcing a firm bullish theme following this week's break of 110.80, Aug 11 high. Yesterday's rally confirmed a clean break of 111.66, Jul 2 high and bull trigger. This marks a resumption of the broader bull cycle that started Jan 6 and opens 112.23 next, Feb 20, 2020 high. Key short-term support is at 109.11, Aug 16 / Sep 15 low. Initial firm support is seen at 110.07, the 50-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Bulls Still In Control

• RES 4: 131.76 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep downleg
• RES 3: 131.09 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 130.75 High Sep 3 bull trigger
• RES 1: 130.48 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 129.87 @ 06:41 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 129.39 Low Sep 24
• SUP 2: 127.94/93 Low Aug 19 / Low Sep 22 the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 127.88 50.0% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jan rally
• SUP 4: 127.50 Low Feb 22

EURJPY maintains a bullish tone. The cross traded sharply higher Sep 23 and bulls remain in control. The recent bounce follows a failure to clear support at 127.94, Aug 19 low. An extension would open key S/T resistance at 130.75, Sep 3 high and a bull trigger. Note that a double bottom reversal appears to be forming on the daily chart - the midpoint is 130.75. Price needs to clear 127.94/93 to resume a downtrend. Initial support is at 129.39.

AUDUSD TECHS: Eyeing The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 0.7478 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7410 High Sep 10
• RES 2: 0.7346 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.7284 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.7208 @ 06:49 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 0.7170 Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: 0.7109 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.7106 Low Aug 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.7053 38.2% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb uptrend

AUDUSD resumed the downward trend Wednesday. The break lower signals a resumption of the near-term downtrend and has resulted in a break of 0.7194, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 rally. Attention turns to 0.7106. This is the Aug 20 low and the bear trigger - a breach would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late February. Firm resistance is seen at 0.7339, the 50-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Finds Support

• RES 4: 1.2976 1.00 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 19 - 30 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2957 High Dec 21, 2020
• RES 2: 1.2949 High Aug 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.2796/2896 High Sep 23 / High Sep 20
• PRICE: 1.2736 @ 06:53 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 1.2594/83 Low Sep 28 / Low Sep 10
• SUP 2: 1.2494 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2422 Jul 30 low and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.2367 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

Recent weakness in USDCAD appears to have found support just below the 50-day EMA. A bullish trend structure remains intact and the recent pullback was considered corrective. A clear break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2618 today - would signal scope for a deeper pullback and expose 1.2494, the Sep 3 low. For bulls, an extension higher would again expose key resistance at 1.2949, Aug 20 high. This marks the bull trigger.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.96 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 170.81 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 170.32 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 170.05 @ 05:23 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 169.46 1.50 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 2: 168.75 Low May 21 (cont)
• SUP 3: 168.29 Low May 19 (cont)
• SUP 4: 167.98 2.382 proj of the Sep 9 - 17 - 21 price swing

Bund futures short-term gains are considered corrective. A bearish outlook remains intact following recent weakness that marked an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 169.46 next, a Fibonacci projection and beyond. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 171.96, Sep 21 high. A break above this level is required to ease bearish pressure. Initial resistance is at 170.32.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 7 / 9
• RES 4: 135.540 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 135.200 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 2: 135.110 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 134.970 @ 05:19 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 134.770 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 134.736 3.236 proj of the Aug 20 - 27 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.660 Low Sep 7 and 8 (cont)
• SUP 4: 134.548 61.8% retracement of the Jun - Sep rally

Bobl futures maintain a bearish tone following last week's resumption of its downtrend and this week's follow through. This maintains the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on 134.736 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance is unchanged at 135.540, Sep 21 high. Initial resistance is at 135.110.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Heading South

• RES 4: 112.340 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 2: 112.290 High Sep 20 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 112.230/246 High Sep 27 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 112.200 @ 05:30 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 112.174 2.764 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.159 61.8% retracement of the May - Aug rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 112.140 Low Jul 5 / 6 (cont)
• SUP 4: 112.130 3.50 proj of the Aug 20 - 26 - 31 price swing

Schatz futures resumed bearish activity Tuesday and remains weak despite finding support. The contract last week cleared former support at 112.215, Sep 9 low to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain a price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 112.174 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at 112.290, Sep 20 high.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10, 14
• RES 3: 127.69 High Sep 21 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 126.84 Low Sep 17 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 126.44 High Sep 27
• PRICE: 125.66 @ Close Sep 29
• SUP 1: 124.84 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 124.64 1.382 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.19 76.4% retracement of the Oct '18 - Mar '20 upleg
• SUP 4: 123.79 1.764 proj of the Aug 31 - Sep 17 - 21 price swing

Gilt futures traded sharply lower again Tuesday as the current bear cycle extends. The contract did find support though at that day's low. The outlook remains bearish following last week's sell-off and breach of 126.84 support, Sep 17 low. The move lower confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and this week's sell-off has opened 124.64 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is at 127.69, Sep 21 high. Initial resistance is seen at 126.44.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 155.68 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 2: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 153.62 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 152.45 @ Close Sep 29
• SUP 1: 151.62 Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: 151.32 76.4% retracement of the Jun 25 - Aug 5 rally (cont)
• SUP 3: 150.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 150.56 Low Jun 30 (cont)

BTP futures trend conditions remain bearish. A price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that highlights a bearish theme is intact and the recent move below 152.94, Sep 9 low, reinforced this condition. The contract traded lower again earlier this week. The focus is on 151.32 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term resistance is at 154.64, Sep 23 / 24 high. A break of this hurdle is required to ease bearish pressure.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 4300.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4234.50 0.764 projection of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 - 20 price swing
• RES 2: 4223.00 High Sep 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4113.30/4200.50 50-day EMA / High Sep 24
• PRICE: 4085.00 @ 05:48 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 4030.50 Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: 3974.00 Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3962.50 76.4% retracement of the Jul 19 - Sep 6 rally
• SUP 4: 3941.50 Low Jul 21

EUROSTOXX 50 futures reversed sharply lower Tuesday removing a recent bullish theme. The move exposes key support at 3974.00, Sep 20 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear trend and signal scope for weakness towards 3962.50 and below, a retracement level. The contract needs to get above recent highs 4200.50, Sep 24 high to refocus attention on the Sep 6 key resistance at 4223.00.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Still Vulnerable

• RES 4: 4539.50 High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 4519.75 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 4481.50 76.4% retracement of the Sep 3 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: 4405.51/4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• PRICE: 4377.25 @ 06:56 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 4334.75/4293.75 Low Sep 28 / Low Sep 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4243.50 Low Jul 20
• SUP 3: 4214.50 Low Jul 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: 4117.00 Low Jun 21

S&P E-minis remain below recent highs following Tuesday reversal lower. The contract is back below the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4407.78 today. A deeper sell-off would highlight a bearish threat and the risk of a pullback towards the key support at 4293.75, Sep 20 low. Price needs to break above 4472.00, Sep 27 high to reinstate a recent bullish theme. This would expose the bull trigger at 4359.50, the Sep 3 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X1) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $82.61 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 3: $82.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $81.85 - High Oct 17, 2018 (cont)
• RES 1: $80.88 - High Oct 19, 2018 (cont)
• PRICE: $78.30 @ 06:55 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: $76.13 - High Sep 15 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $75.60 - Low Sep 23
• SUP 3: $73.26 - Low Sep 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $73.17 - 50-day EMA

Brent futures stalled at Wednesday's high of $80.75 and this level marks initial resistance. A bullish outlook remains intact and dips are considered corrective. The recent break of former resistance at 76.13, Sep 15 high confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher also resulted in a print above $80.00. A resumption of gain would open the $82.00 handle next. Initial firm support is seen at $76.13, Sep 15 high.

WTI TECHS: (X1) Remains Below Recent Highs

• RES 4: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $79.53 - 1.382 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $78.24 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 2 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 1: $76.67 - High Sep 28
• PRICE: $74.73 @ 07:01 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: $73.58 - High Jul 6 and recent breakout level
• SUP 2: $71.61 - Low Sep 21
• SUP 3: $69.39 - Low Sep 21 and key support
• SUP 4: $67.35 - Low Sep 9

WTI remains softer this morning following the pullback from Tuesday's high of $76.67. Dips are considered corrective and a bullish theme remains intact. Last week's break of $73.58, the Jul 6 high and bull trigger confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. The focus is on $78.24 next, a Fibonacci projection with scope seen for a climb towards $80.00 further out. On the downside, firm support is seen at $73.58.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 3: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1808.7 - High Sep 14
• RES 1: $1760.9/87.4 - High Sep 27 / High Sep 22 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1729.8 @ 07:25 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10
• SUP 3: $1690.6 - Low Aug 08 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1678.00 Low Mar 31

Gold remained weaker and traded lower once again yesterday. This confirms a resumption of the current bear phase that started Sep 3. The yellow metal has breached $1724.5, 76.4% of the Aug 9 - Sep 3 rally. The break of this level strengthens a bearish case and opens the key support at $1690.6, Aug 9 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $1760.9, Sep 27 high. A breach would ease bearish pressure.

SILVER TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 3: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: $23.832 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.978/23.144 - 20-Day EMA / High Sep 22
• PRICE: $21.569 @ 07:59 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: $21.423 - Low Sep 29
• SUP 2: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally
• SUP 3 :$20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.851 - Low Jul 21, 2020

Silver broke lower yesterday and cleared former support at $22.039, Sep 20 low. This ends the recent consolidation, confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower paves the way for an extension towards $20.871, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key near-term resistance is at $23.144, Sep 22 high.