MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Futures Breach Resistance

Price Signal Summary – WTI Futures Breach Resistance

• S&P E-Minis remain below last 4073.75. The pullback from last week’s high means that price has - so far - failed to remain above pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4019.45. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen bullish conditions. Support lies at 3937.00. Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating. The contract remains below 4164.00, the Mar 22 high. The recent pullback threatens a bull theme and signals the end of what appears to have been a corrective bounce. A resumption of weakness would open 4009.50, 61.8% of the Mar 20 22 rally.
• GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and maintains a bullish tone. The pair has recently cleared a number of resistance points signalling scope for an extension higher. The focus is on 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair traded lower last week, maintaining the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has pierced 129.75, 76.4% of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally. The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. Recent gains, since Mar 10, appear to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note too that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. WTI futures have traded higher this week. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $72.60. The break is a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at $75.04.
• Bund futures traded lower Tuesday as the contract extends the pullback from last Friday’s high of 139.54. Price is approaching support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.54. It represents a key support and a clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday. The move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.72. This average represents an important short-term support and a clear break would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term towards 102.84.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Remains Above The Mar 24 Low

• RES 4: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
• RES 3: 1.1033 High Feb 2 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0940 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 1.0930 High Mar 23
• PRICE: 1.0839 @ 05:48 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 1.0725/13 20-day EMA / Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 1.0686 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0608 Low Mar 17
• SUP 4: 1.0516 Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger

EURUSD traded higher Tuesday and remains above 1.0713, the Mar 24 low. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 1.0930, the Mar 23 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate the recent bull theme and signal scope for a climb towards 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at 1.0725 (20-day EMA) and 1.0686 (50-day EMA). A break of this support zone would expose the recent low at 1.0516 on Mar 15.

GBPUSD TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone

• RES 4: 1.2470 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2448 High Jan 23 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 1.2401 High Feb 2
• RES 1: 1.2349 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 1.2330 @ 06:00 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 1.2191 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 1.2170 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2122 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.2011 Low Mar 15

GBPUSD traded higher Tuesday and maintains a bullish tone. The pair has recently cleared a number of resistance points signalling scope for an extension higher. The focus is on 1.2401, the Feb 2 high and 1.2448, the Jan 23 high. The latter is a key medium-term resistance. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 1.2191, the Mar 24 low, ahead of 1.2170, the 20-day EMA. A break of the EMA would be a bearish development.

EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 0.8925 High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8885 Trendline drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 1: 0.8827 High Mar 24
• PRICE: 0.8792 @ 06:26 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 0.8771 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 3: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8691 Low Dec 19

EURGBP remains below 0.8866, the Mar 23 high. Recent gains, between Mar 15 - 23, have highlighted a bullish picture and attention is on a key short-term trendline resistance at 0.8885. The trendline is drawn from the Feb 3 high and a break would strengthen bullish conditions. On the downside, key support to watch is unchanged at 0.8719, the Mar 15 low. Clearance of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish theme.

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 135.11 High Mar 15
• RES 3: 133.41 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 133.00 High Mar 22
• RES 1: 132.82 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.70 @ 06:33 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 129.75/64 76.4% of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally / Mar 27 low
• SUP 2: 129.12 High Feb 2
• SUP 3: 128.09 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 127.23 Low Jan 16 and key support

The trend direction in USDJPY remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pair traded lower last week, maintaining the current bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has pierced 129.75, 76.4% of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 rally. A clear break would open 129.12, the Feb 2 low. Firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 132.82 where a break is required to ease bearish pressure.

EURJPY TECHS: Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 145.57 High Mar 2 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 144.96 High Mar 15
• RES 2: 143.98 76.4% retracement of the recent Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle
• RES 1: 143.63 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 142.88 @ 07:00 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 141.79 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 140.41/139.07 Low Mar 27 / 24
• SUP 3: 138.83 Low Mar 20 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 137.92 Low Jan 19

EURJPY is trading higher today but remains below 143.63, the Mar 22 high. This level represents a key short-term resistance where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. On the downside, key short-term support lies at 138.83, the Mar 20 low and is a bear trigger. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up, highlighting bullish sentiment. A break of 143.63 would open 143.98, 76.4% of the Mar 2 - 20 bear cycle.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
• RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 2: 0.6784 High Mar 1
• RES 1: 0.6758 50-day EMA and a key resistance
• PRICE: 0.6676 @ 08:05 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 0.6625 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

The AUDUSD trend condition is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. Recent gains, since Mar 10, appear to be a correction. The 20-day EMA has been breached but resistance at the 50-day EMA remains intact. The average intersects at 0.6758. A clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.6565, the Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13
• RES 3: 1.3898 High Oct 14
• RES 2: 1.3805/3862 High Mar 24 / 10 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3695 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 1.3615 @ 08:29 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 1.3588 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3562 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3515 Low Feb 22
• SUP 4: 1.3442 Low Feb 20 / 21

The current bear cycle in USDCAD remains in play and the pair traded lower yesterday. Price is testing support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3598. A clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement - this would open 1.3515, the Feb 22 low. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on resistance at 1.3805, the Mar 24 high. The bull trigger is at 1.3862, the Mar 10 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Approaching Support At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 140.30 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 140.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 137.85/139.54 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 136.56 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 136.01 @ 05:12 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 135.54 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 134.80 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 134.15 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 133.33 Low Mar 15

Bund futures traded lower Tuesday as the contract extends the pullback from last Friday’s high of 139.54. Price is approaching support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 135.54. It represents a key support and a clear break of the average is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 134.80, the Mar 22 low. On the upside initial resistance is at yesterday’s intraday high of 136.56.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Monitoring Support

• RES 4: 121.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 120.610 High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 119.170/120.130 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 118.490 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 118.170 @ 05:21 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 117.920 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 117.705/300 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 116.982 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 116.370 Low Mar 15

Bobl futures traded lower Tuesday. Support at 117.300 remains intact, Mar 22 low. Note that an important pivot support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 117.751. A clear break of this EMA is required to signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would expose 116.982, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 120.610, Mar 21 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm resistance is at 120.130, the Mar 24 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 107.110 High Dec 7 2022 (cont)
• RES 3: 106.955 High Mar 20 and key resistance
• RES 2: 106.315/695 High Mar 27 / 24
• RES 1: 106.050 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 105.910 @ 05:39 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 105.795 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 105.706 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 105.575 Low Mar 22
• SUP 4: 105.336 61.8% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally

A key support in Schatz futures lies at 105.706, the 20-day EMA, where a break is required to strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper pullback. This would open 105.575, the Mar 22 low. For now, the recent move lower appears to be a correction. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 106.955, the Mar 20 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 106.695, last Friday’s high.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Trades Through The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: 107.78 High Feb 2 (cont) a and a key resistance
• RES 3: 107.33 High Mar 20
• RES 2: 105.62/106.48 High Mar 27 / 76.4% of Mar 24 - 27 pullback
• RES 1: 104.35 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 103.87 @ Close Mar 28
• SUP 1: 103.26 50.0% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 2: 102.84 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 102.31 61.8% retracement of the entire rally from Feb 28
• SUP 4: 102.00 Round number support

Gilt futures traded lower Tuesday. The move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA which intersects at 103.72. This average represents an important short-term support and a clear break would signal scope for a continuation lower near-term towards 102.84, the Mar 22 low. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 104.35, yesterday’s intraday high. A move above this level would ease the developing bearish threat.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 3: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 115.58 High Mar 28
• PRICE: 115.13 @ Close Mar 28
• SUP 1: 114.63 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 114.15 Low Mar 22
• SUP 3: 113.02 High Mar 9 and a gap low
• SUP 4: 111.79 Low Mar 9

BTP futures remain below last week’s high of 117.17, on Mar 24. The short-term outlook remains bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 118.18 next, the Jan 19 high on the continuation chart and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 113.02, the Mar 9 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Initial firm support is seen at 114.63, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Remains Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 4268.00 High Mar 6 and key resistance
• RES 3: 4240.00 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 4184.50 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 bear leg
• RES 1: 4164.00 High Mar 22 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: 4129.00 @ 06:00 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 4034.00 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 4009.00/3914.00 61.8% of the Mar 20 - 22 rally / Low Mar 20
• SUP 3: 3865.00 Low Jan 4
• SUP 4: 3750.00 Low Dec 30

Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating. The contract remains below 4164.00, the Mar 22 high. The recent pullback threatens a bull theme and signals the end of what appears to have been a corrective bounce. A resumption of weakness would open 4009.50, 61.8% of the Mar 20 22 rally. A move below the 4000.00 handle would expose 3914.00, the Mar 21 low and a bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is 4164.00. A break of this level would be bullish.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4148.48 76.4% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 3: 4119.50 High Mar 6
• RES 2: 4089.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 13 downleg
• RES 1: 4019.45/4073.75 50-day EMA / High Mar 22
• PRICE: 4025.20 @ 06:54 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: 3937.00/3897.25 Low Mar 24 / 20
• SUP 2: 3839.25 Low Mar 13
• SUP 3: 3822.00 Low Dec 22 and a key support
• SUP 4: 3778.00 Low Nov 3

S&P E-Minis remain below last 4073.75. The pullback from last week’s high means that price has - so far - failed to remain above pivot resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4019.45. A clear break of the average is required to strengthen bullish conditions. Support lies at 3937.00, the Mar 24 low. A breach would instead open 3897.25 next, the Mar 20 low. 4073.75, the Mar 22 high, is the bull trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K3) Breaches Resistance At The 20-Day EMA

• RES 4: $84.00 - High Mar 9
• RES 3: $82.83 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 2: $80.81 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $79.20 - High Mar 28 and intraday high
• PRICE: $78.95 @ 06:31 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: $72.68/70.12 - Low Mar 24 / Low Mar 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)
• SUP 3: $65.72 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $64.62 - 1.382 projection of the Nov - Dec - Jan price swing

Brent futures traded higher Tuesday and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price has breached the 20-day EMA which intersects at $78.42. This average represents a key short-term resistance and the break strengthens current bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher. Sights are on $80.81, the 50-day EMA. Initial firm support lies at $72.68, the Mar 24 low. A break would be bearish.

WTI TECHS: (K3) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: $81.04 - High Mar 7 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $78.17 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $77.10 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 20 downleg
• RES 1: $75.12 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $73.71 @ 07:02 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: $66.82/64.36 - Low Mar 24 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont) and a key support
• SUP 3: $63.19 - 1.764 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing
• SUP 4: $58.41 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 23 - Feb 6 - Mar 7 price swing

WTI futures have traded higher this week. Price has breached resistance at the 20-day EMA which intersects at $72.60. The break is a short-term bullish development and a continuation higher would expose the 50-day EMA, at $75.04. This average represents the next key resistance point. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $66.82, the Mar 24 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Pennant Formation

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $2034.0 - 2.00 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 rally from Feb 28
• RES 1: $2009.7 - High Mar 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1960.9 @ 07:19 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: $1924.5 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1918.3 - Low Mar 17
• SUP 3: $1886.8 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low Mar 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the recent short-term pullback is considered corrective. Note too that price action since Mar 20 appears to be a pennant - a continuation pattern. This reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for an extension higher near-term. The recent test above $2000.0 opens $2034.0 next, a Fibonacci projection. $1918.3 marks a firm support, the Mar 17 low - a break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.

SILVER TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: $24.729 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 3: $24.637 - High Feb 2 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $24.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $23.524 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $23.066 @ 07:22 BST Mar 29
• SUP 1: $22.157 - Low Mar 21
• SUP 2: $21.474 - Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $20.591/19.904 - Low Mar 13 / 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $19.416 - Low Nov 4

Silver remains firm having reversed sharply higher from $19.904, the Mar 10 low. The metal is holding on to its recent gains. Price has cleared resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $22.140 and the break of this EMA strengthens bullish conditions. $23.520, 76.4% of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 downleg, has been pierced. A clear break would open the $24.00 handle. On the downside, $22.157 marks initial firm support, the Mar 21 low.