MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - WTI Futures Breach Support

Price Signal Summary – WTI Futures Breach Support

• The trend outlook in S&P E-minis remains bullish and the latest move lower (from Tuesday’s high) is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 4119.30, the 20-day EMA where a break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback - this would expose 4077.86, the 50-day EMA. Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating. The uptrend remains intact and recent gains have reinforced the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance.
• The GBPUSD uptrend remains intact and price is trading above support at 1.2382, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper correction. The current short-term uptrend in USDJPY remains intact despite the modest pullback from Wednesday’s high. Resistance at 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg, has been breached. AUDUSD failed to hold on to yesterday’s gains and is trading lower today. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish, however, the yellow metal has entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has breached initial firm support at $1987.3, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. This has opened $1949.7, Apr 3 low. WTI futures are trading lower this week. This has resulted in a breach of support at $79.04, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart. The continuation lower has also resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs.
• Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 135.06, and key short-term support at 134.70 has been cleared, the Mar 31 low. A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play. Price has recently breached support at 102.74, the Mar 31 low and bear trigger. The extension lower has also resulted in a move through the 100.00 handle.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: MA Studies Remain In A Bull Mode Position

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022 and high Apr 14
• RES 1: 1.1000 High Apr 17
• PRICE: 1.0960 @ 05:52 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.0905 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0831 Low APr 10
• SUP 3: 1.0810 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0788 Low Apr 3

The uptrend EURUSD remains intact and price is trading above 1.0905, the 20-day EMA. The recent 1.1033 break, Feb 2 high, reinforces bullish conditions. Note that MA studies are in a bull mode condition, highlighting an uptrend. The bull trigger is 1.1076, Apr 14 high. The focus is on 1.1127, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1185, Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, a break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 1.2681 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
• RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
• RES 1: 1.2474/2546 High Apr 19 / 14 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.2432 @ 06:05 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 1.2275/72 Low Apr 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2191 Low MAr 24
• SUP 4: 1.2161 Low Mar 20

The GBPUSD uptrend remains intact and price is trading above support at 1.2382, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper correction. On the upside, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.2546, the Apr 14 high, where a break would resume the uptrend and open 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Support below the 20-day EMA lies at 1.2345, the Apr 10 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8918 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8880 61.8 retracement of the Feb 3 - Mar 15 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8872 High Apr 17
• RES 1: 0.8838 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 0.8817 @ 06:20 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 0.8792 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 0.8763/8729 Low Apr 11 / 4
• SUP 3: 0.8719 Low Mar 15 and key support
• SUP 4: 0.8712 61.8% retracement of the Dec 1 - Feb 3 bull leg

EURGBP is consolidating but remains in a short-term bull cycle. The cross traded above trendline resistance on Apr 17. The line intersects at 0.8844 and is drawn from the Feb 3 high. 0.8866, the Mar 23 high, has recently been pierced. A clear break of the trendline and 0.8866 would open 0.8880, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.8719, Mar 15 low. A break of this level would be bearish. Initial firm support is 0.8792, the Apr 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: 137.38 High Mar 9
• RES 3: 136.99 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 135.96 76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg
• RES 1: 135.13 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 133.86 @ 06:41 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 133.32 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 132.02 Low Apr 13
• SUP 3: 131.53 Low Feb 2
• SUP 4: 130.64 Low Apr 5 and a key support

The current short-term uptrend in USDJPY remains intact despite the modest pullback from Wednesday’s high. Resistance at 134.75, 61.8% of the Mar 8 - 24 bear leg, has been breached. The break strengthens the current bull cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 135.96 next, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 133.32, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term support is at 132.02, Apr 13 low. A break would be bearish.

EURJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback

• RES 4: 150.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 149.39 1.00 proj of the Mar 20 - 21 - Apr 6 price swing
• RES 2: 148.40 High Oct 21 2022 and key resistance
• RES 1: 147.86 High Apr 19
• PRICE: 146.70 @ 07:14 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 146.08/145.67 Low Apr 13 / High Mar 31
• SUP 2: 145.39 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 144.08 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 142.55 Low Apr 6

EURJPY faded Thursday and the cross is trading lower today. Short-term weakness is considered corrective and a move lower would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind. The uptrend remains intact following recent gains - the cross cleared 145.67 on Apr 11, the Mar 31 high, to reinforce bullish conditions. A resumption of gains would open 148.40 next, the Oct 21 2022 high. Initial firm support lies at 145.39, the 20-day EMA.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fails To Hold On To Yesterday’s Gains

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6861 50.0% retracement of the Feb 2 - Mar 10 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6824 High Feb 24
• RES 1: 0.6772/0.6806 High Apr 20 / Apr 14
• PRICE: 0.6691 @ 07:56 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 0.6681/6620 Low Apr 17 / 10
• SUP 2: 0.6590 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 0.6565/47 Low Mar 10 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
• SUP 4: 0.6500 Round number support

AUDUSD failed to hold on to yesterday’s gains and is trading lower today. A key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6806, the Apr 14 high. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.6861, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is unchanged at 0.6620, the Apr 10 low. A break of this level would represent a bearish development and leave the bear trigger at 0.6565 exposed, Mar 10 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Testing Resistance At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3617 High Mar 29
• RES 3: 1.3582 50.0% retracement of the Mar 10 - Apr 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3554 High Apr 10
• RES 1: 1.526/27 50-day EMA / Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3525 @ 08:07 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 1.3385/3302 Low Apr 19 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3275 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.3262 Low Feb 2 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.3226 Low Nov 15 2022

USDCAD maintains a former tone and the current correction remains intact. The pair has arrived at the 1.3526 resistance - the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a climb towards 1.3554, the Apr 10 high. For bears, a failure at the 50-day EMA would signal the end of the correction and attention would turn to the key support at 1.3302, the Apr 14 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M3) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 139.54 High Mar 24
• RES 3: 136.44/138.09 High Apr 12 / 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.06 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.26 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 134.16 @ 05:12 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 133.10 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 132.70 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
• SUP 3: 132.37 Low Mar 10
• SUP 4: 132.00 Round number support

Bund futures maintain a bearish tone and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA, at 135.06, and key short-term support at 134.70 has been cleared, the Mar 31 low. The continuation lower has opened 132.70, a Fibonacci retracement. A move above 138.09, the Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 135.06.

BOBL TECHS: (M3) Bear Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 119.307 61.8% retracement of the Mar 20 - 31 downleg
• RES 3: 118.280/119.190 High Apr 12 / High Mar 27
• RES 2: 117.830 High Apr 13
• RES 1: 117.160/541 High Apr 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 117.020 @ 05:24 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 116.420 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 116.370 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 116.125 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 115.700 Low Mar 10

The outlook in Bobl futures remains bearish. The contract has recently breached 117.200, the Mar 31 low. This reinforces the bearish theme and the focus is on 116.370, the Mar 15 low. A break of this level would open 116.125, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 119.190, Mar 27 high and the trigger for a stronger short-term climb. Initial firm resistance is 117.601, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M3) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 106.190 High Apr 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.815 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 105.579/665 20-day EMA / High Apr 13
• RES 1: 105.440 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 105.360 @ 04:54 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 105.165 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 105.030 Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: 104.953 76.4% retracement of the Mar 9 - 20 rally
• SUP 4: 104.695 Low Mar 10

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at 105.465, the Mar 31 low. 105.336, 61.8% of the Mar 9 - 20 rally, has been breached. The break opens 105.030, the Mar 15 low. On the upside, clearance of 106.190, Apr 6 high, is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is seen at 105.579, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 102.67 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 102.37 High Apr 17
• RES 2: 101.60 High Apr 18
• RES 1: 100.97 High Apr 20
• PRICE: 100.67 @ Close Apr 20
• SUP 1: 99.73 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 99.55 Low Mar 8
• SUP 3: 99.20 Low Feb 28 and key support
• SUP 4: 99.00 Round number support

A short-term bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play. Price has recently breached support at 102.74, the Mar 31 low and bear trigger. The extension lower has also resulted in a move through the 100.00 handle. A continuation of the downleg would open 99.55, the Mar 8 low ahead of 99.20, the Feb 28 low and key support. Initial resistance is seen at 100.97, yesterday’s intraday high.

BTP TECHS: (M3) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 117.17 High Mar 24 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 115.92/116.97 High Apr 12 / 6
• RES 2: 114.94 High Apr 13
• RES 1: 114.48 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 113.68 @ Close Apr 20
• SUP 1: 113.09 Low Apr 19
• SUP 2: 112.89 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 3: 111.88 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 24 rally
• SUP 4: 111.05 Low Mar 8

The BTP futures trend condition remains bearish. The contract has recently breached support at 114.04, the Mar 31 low, strengthening a bearish theme. Attention is on 112.89, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, initial firm resistance is at 114.48, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is far off at 117.17, the Mar 24 high. A break above the 20-day EMA would highlight a potential bullish reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M3) Holding On To Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4520.00 High June 2001 (cont)
• RES 3: 4403.50 High Nov 18 2021 (cont) and a major resistance
• RES 2: 4381.50 High Jan 5 2022 (cont)
• RES 1: 4354.00 High Apr 18
• PRICE: 4332.00 @ 06:34 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 4309.00 Low Apr 17
• SUP 2: 4257.40 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4184.20 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 4034.00 Low Mar 24 and a key support

Eurostoxx 50 futures are consolidating. The uptrend remains intact and recent gains have reinforced the bullish significance of the break of 4268.00, the Mar 6 high and a former key resistance. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 4381.50, the Jan 5 2022 high (cont). Initial firm support lies at 4257.40, the 20-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (M3): Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 4244.00 High Feb 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: 4223.00 High Feb 14
• RES 2: 4205.50 High Feb 16
• RES 1: 4200.00 Round number resistance
• PRICE: 4153.25 @ 06:49 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: 4122.47 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4080.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3980.75 Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: 3937.00 Low Mar 24

The trend outlook in S&P E-minis remains bullish and the latest move lower (from Tuesday’s high) is considered corrective. Support to watch lies at 4119.30, the 20-day EMA where a break is required to suggest scope for a deeper pullback - this would expose 4077.86, the 50-day EMA. Attention is on the 4200.00 handle where a break would resume the uptrend and open 4205.50,Feb 16 high ahead of 4244.00, the Feb 2 high and key resistance.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (M3) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $90.46 - High Nov 15 2022
• RES 3: $88.35 - High Jan 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $87.49 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $85.15 - High APr 19
• PRICE: $80.89 @ 06:57 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $79.95 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $78.77 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 bull run
• SUP 3: $77.18 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 4: $74.39 - Low Mar 27

Brent futures are trading below recent highs and the contract has weakened this week. This has resulted in a break of support at $83.50, the Apr 3 low, and price has also breached the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The break lower signals scope for a move to $79.95, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. Key resistance has been defined at $87.49, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the recent bull run.

WTI TECHS: (M3) Correction Lower Extends

• RES 4: $86.40 - High Nov 7 2022
• RES 3: $85.54 - High Nov 8 2022
• RES 2: $83.38 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $81.24 - High Apr 19
• PRICE: $77.20 @ 07:14 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $75.83 - High Mar 31 and gap low on the daily chart
• SUP 2: $73.98 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar 20 - Apr 12 rally
• SUP 3: $72.19 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $69.13 - Low Mar 27

WTI futures are trading lower this week. This has resulted in a breach of support at $79.04, the Apr 3 low and the gap high on the daily chart. The continuation lower has also resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for a move to $75.83, the Mar 31 high and a gap low on the daily chart. On the upside, key short-term resistance has been defined at $83.38, the Apr 12 high. A break would resume the recent uptrend.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: $2075.5 - All-Time High Aug 7 2020
• RES 3: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $2059.2 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 1: $2015.1/2048.7 - High Apr 17 / High Apr 13 and bull trigger
• PRICE: $1984.7 @ 07:38 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $1969.3/49.7 - Low Apr 19 / 3
• SUP 2: $1941.1 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $1900.0 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15

Trend conditions in Gold remain bullish, however, the yellow metal has entered a short-term corrective cycle. Price has breached initial firm support at $1987.3, the 20-day EMA, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement. This has opened $1949.7, Apr 3 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $2048.7, the Apr 5 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

SILVER TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 3: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 2: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $26.088 - High Apr 14
• PRICE: $25.000 @ 08:10 BST Apr 21
• SUP 1: $24.553 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.530 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $22.828 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $22.157 - Low Mar 21

Silver remains in an uptrend and the recent pullback is considered corrective. The break - on Apr 4 - of resistance at $24.637, the Feb 2 high, confirmed a resumption of the bull trend that started early September 2022. The focus is on $26.222 next, the Apr 18 2022 high. On the downside, a key support to watch is seen at $24.553, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper (corrective) pullback.