MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Approaches A Key 5-Month Trendline Resistance

Price Signal Summary - Gold Approaches A Key 5-Month Trendline Resistance

• In the equity space, current bullish conditions in S&P E-Minis remains intact. Fresh highs this week reinforces the current trend direction and this signals scope for a climb towards 4204.75 next, May 31 high and the next key resistance. Initial key support is 3991.98, the 50-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and yesterday’s high print reinforces this theme. The contract has breached the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. Scope is seen for gains towards 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. Initial firm support to watch is 3592.30, the 50-day EMA.
• In FX, the EURUSD short-term outlook is bullish and the pair remains above support at 1.0097, the Jul 27 low. A resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0379. Weakness below 1.0097 would alter the picture. A bullish short-term theme in GBPUSD remains intact. Price has recently traded above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces current conditions with the next objective at 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. Potential is also seen for a climb towards 1.2406, the Jun 16 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2063, the Jul 29 low. USDJPY remains above support at 130.41, Tuesday’s low. Gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of weakness would open 130.00. Initial resistance is at 135.09, the 20-day EMA.
• On the commodity front, Gold maintains a firmer tone. The yellow metal has breached the 50-day EMA and attention is on trendline resistance at $1802.1. A breach of the trendline would represent an important technical break and highlight a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. A break would open $1825.1, the Jun 30 high. Initial firm support lies at $1754.4 the Aug 3 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s extension lower reinforces current bearish conditions. Price has breached support at $88.23, Jul 14 low and a key support. This opens $91.22, Jul 14 low.
• In the FI space, a short-term bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact. Scope is seen for a climb to 159.79 next, the Apr 4 high (cont). Initial firm support is 154.77, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in Gilts remain bullish and pullbacks are considered corrective. A resumption of gains would open 120.00. Support is at 116.93 20-day EMA.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0449 High Jul 5
• RES 3: 1.0379 Bull channel resistance drawn from the Feb 10 high
• RES 2: 1.0348 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0294 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 1.0230 @ 06:19 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.0097 Low Aug 27 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 1.0064/0.9952 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.9944 1.618 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.9883 1.764 projection of the Jun 9 - 15 - 27 price swing

EURUSD traded high Thursday but remains below Tuesday’s high. The short-term outlook is unchanged and bullish, as long as support at 1.0097, the Jul 27 low, remains intact. A resumption of gains would signal scope for an extension higher within the bull channel - the top intersects at 1.0379 and marks a key resistance. Weakness below 1.0097 would alter the picture. This would expose parity once again and 0.9952, the Jul 14.

GBPUSD TECHS: Still Looking For Gains

• RES 4: 1.2518 High Jun 6
• RES 3: 1.2406 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2332 High Jun 27
• RES 1: 1.2293 High Aug 01
• PRICE: 1.2140 @ 06:28 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.2063 Low Jul 29
• SUP 2: 1.1961 Low Jul 25
• SUP 3: 1.1890/1760 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1673 1.00 proj of the May 27 - Jun 14 - 16 price swing

GBPUSD remains below its recent highs. A bullish short-term theme is intact though. Price has recently traded above the 50-day EMA. This reinforces short-term bullish conditions with the next objective at 1.2332, the Jun 27 high. Potential is seen for a climb towards 1.2406, the Jun 16 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.2063, the Jul 29 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 0.8627 High Jul 4
• RES 3: 0.8585 High Jul 21 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8480 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8444 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8426 @ 0:35 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 0.8340 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 0.8250 2.0% 10-dma envelope and low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and a key support

EURGBP traded higher Thursday following the BoE rate decision. The outlook is bearish though and gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has reinforced this theme and resulted in a print below 0.8367, the May 2 low. A continuation lower would open 0.8313, Apr 22 low. The Jul 21 high of 0.8585 has been defined as a key resistance where a break would reinstate a bullish theme. Initial firm resistance is 0.8444, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 137.46 High Jul 27
• RES 3: 136.71 Former channel support drawn from the Mar 4 low
• RES 2: 135.09 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 134.55 High Aug 3
• PRICE: 133.33 @ 06:41 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 132.29 Low Mar 8
• SUP 2: 130.41/130.00 Low Aug 2 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 129.51 Low Jun 2
• SUP 4: 128.64 Low Jun 1

USDJPY remains above support at 130.41, Tuesday’s low. Gains are - for now - considered corrective. A bearish theme is intact following recent weakness that resulted in the break of a number of important technical chart points. A bull channel breakout, drawn from the Mar 4 low signalled a short-term reversal. Support at 131.50, the Jun 16 low has also been cleared. A resumption of weakness would open 130.00. Initial resistance is at 135.32.

EURJPY TECHS: Hammer Candle Pattern Still In Play

• RES 4: 140.07 High Jul 25
• RES 3: 139.41 High Jul 28
• RES 2: 138.03 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 137.33 High Jul 29
• PRICE: 136.36 @ 06:50 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 134.84/133.40 Low Aug 3 / 2 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 132.66 Low May 12 and a key support
• SUP 3: 131.99 61.8% retracement of the Mar 7 - Jun 28 bull leg
• SUP 4: 130.72 Low Mar 17

EURJPY is holding on to the bulk of its most recent gains, having bounced from 133.40, Aug 2 low. The recovery highlights a potential hammer formation on Tuesday. If confirmed, this pattern would suggest a reversal of the recent downleg. A stronger bounce would open 138.03, the 20-day EMA. A breach of Tuesday’s 133.40 low would instead resume the bear cycle and open 132.66, the May 12 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 0.7141 76.4% retracement of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 3: 0.7069 High Jun 16
• RES 2: 0.7047/53 High Aug 1 / 61.8% of the Jun 3 - Jul 14 downleg
• RES 1: 0.6990 High Aug 4
• PRICE: 0.6967 @ 06:56 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 0.6886 Low Aug 3
• SUP 2: 0.6859 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 0.6786/6682 Low Jul 18 / 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing

AUDUSD traded higher Monday, before finding resistance. The short-term outlook is bullish and for now, the latest pullback is considered corrective. A resumption of strength, and a break of resistance at 0.7047, Monday’s high, would open the Jun 16 high at 0.7069. Further out there is scope for a climb towards 0.7141, a Fibonacci retracement. Support to watch is at 0.6886, the Aug 3 low.

USDCAD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 1.3224 High Jul 14 and key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3135/3163 High Jul 15 / 3.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 1.3038 High Jul 18
• RES 1: 1.2892/2947 High Aug 3 / High Jul 25
• PRICE: 1.2867 @ 07:00 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 1.2767/63 Low Aug 01 / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: 1.2685 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Jul 14 upleg
• SUP 3: 1.2594 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.2549 Low Jun 9

USDCAD maintains a bearish theme and Monday’s low print reinforces current conditions. Short-term gains are still considered corrective. 1.2819, the Jun 28 low, has been pierced. A clear break would strengthen bearish conditions and this would open 1.2763, the Jun 13 low and 1.2685, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.2947, Jul 25 high. A break is required to ease the current bearish threat.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Heading North

• RES 4: 161.38 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: 160.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 159.79 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 1: 159.70 High Aug 3
• PRICE: 158.03 @ 05:10 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 156.21/154.77 Low Jul 29 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.99 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 149.69 Low Jul 21 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 148.24 Low Jul 1

Bund futures remain in an uptrend and a fresh trend high earlier this week reinforced current short-term conditions. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 159.79 next, the Apr 4 high (cont). Key trend support has been defined at 149.69, Jul 21 low. A break is required to signal a potential top. Initial firm support is 154.77, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 130.000 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 129.950 2.00 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 2: 129.001 1.764 projection of the Jun 16 -24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 128.760 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 127.870 @ 05:21 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 126.595/460 20-day EMA / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 125.776 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 124.030 Low Jul 21 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 4: 123.010 Low Jun 30

Bobl futures trend conditions are unchanged and remain bullish - short-term dips are considered corrective. Tuesday’s high print strengthens current trend conditions. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 129.001 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is 124.030, Jul 21 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial firm support is 126.450, Jul 28 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4 (cont)
• RES 3: 110.500 High May 26 (cont)
• RES 2: 110.412 1.50 proj of the May 16 - 24 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 110.380 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 110.040 @ 05:29 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 109.778 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 109.670 Low Jul 28
• SUP 3: 109.580 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 109.350 Low Jul 22

Schatz futures remain below recent highs. The move lower is likely a correction and trend conditions remain bullish. Fresh highs Tuesday, confirmed a resumption of the current uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for a continuation higher. The focus is on 110.412 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is unchanged at 108.950, the Jul 21 low. Initial firm support is seen at 109.733.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 121.88 High Apr 5 (cont)
• RES 3: 121.07 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.88/119.84 High Aug 4 / 2 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 118.19 @ Close Aug 4
• SUP 1: 116.93/70 20-day EMA / Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 116.31 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 114.08 Low Jul 8 and a key support
• SUP 4: 113.03 Low Jun 30

The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish despite the pullback from 119.84, Aug 2 high. Recent gains reinforce the bull trend condition and the move higher highlights an extension of the breach of resistance at 117.09, Jul 6 high. This also maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Key short-term support is at 114.08, the Jul 8 low. Initial firm support is at 116.93, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bullish Focus

• RES 4:131.61 High Apr 29 (cont)
• RES 3: 131.24 High May 12 (cont)
• RES 2: 130.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 129.27 High Aug 2
• PRICE: 128.70 @ Close Aug 4
• SUP 1: 126.40/124.82 Low Aug 1 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 122.81/119.57 Low Jul 28 / Low Jul 21 and key S/T support
• SUP 3: 118.60 Low Jun 22
• SUP 4: 115.72 Low Jun 16

The BTP futures trend condition remains bullish and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. The break on Jul 29 of key resistance at 126.41, Jul 1 high, reinforces conditions for bulls and highlights a broader bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows - the definition of an uptrend. Attention is on the 130.00 handle next. Initial firm support lies at 122.81, Jul 28 low. Key trend support is at 119.57, Jul 21 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U2) Bullish Extension

• RES 4: 3902.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3855.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3840.00 High Jun 6 and key resistance
• RES 1: 3811.00 High Jun 8
• PRICE: 3756.00 @ 05:38 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 3658.00 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 3592.30/3467.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 18 / 19
• SUP 3: 3343.00 Low Jul 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3321.30 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures trend conditions remain bullish and yesterday’s climb reinforces current conditions. The contract has cleared the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 6 - Jul 5 downleg, at 3722.40. The clear breach opens 3811.00 next, the Jun 8 high, ahead of 3840.00, the Jun 6 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 3343.00, the Jul 5 low. Initial firm support to watch is 3586.00, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Northbound

• RES 4: 4345.75 2.00 proj of the Jun 17 - 28 - Jul 14 price swing
• RES 3: 4306.50 High May 4
• RES 2: 4204.75 High May 31 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4173.25 High Aug 4
• PRICE: 4160.75 @ 06:54 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 3991.98/13.25 50-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and key S/T support
• SUP 2: 3820.25 Low Jul 18
• SUP 3: 3723.75/3639.00 Low Jul 14 / Low Jun 17 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3578.27 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded higher Thursday to reinforce current bullish conditions. The break of Monday’s 4147.25 high confirmed a resumption of the current bull cycle and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 4204.75 next, the May 31 high and the next key resistance. On the downside, initial trend support has been defined at 3913.25, the Jul 26 low. A break would highlight a possible reversal.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V2) Bearish Price Activity

• RES 4: $112.92 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $110.72 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $106.50 - High Jul 29 and a key resistance
• RES 1: $100.45/102.74 - 20- and 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $94.40 @ 06:14 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: $93.20 - Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: $91.22 - Low Jul 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $90.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $88.31 - Low Mar 9 and a key support

Brent futures traded lower once again yesterday to resume the pullback from $106.50, the Jul 29 high. The outlook remains bearish following the recent failure to hold on to gains above the 50-day EMA - a key pivot resistance. The EMA intersects at $102.74. Price has cleared $96.70 support, the Jul 25 low. This exposes $91.22, the Jul 14 low. Key resistance has been defined at $106.50. A break is required to reinstate a bullish focus.

WTI TECHS: (U2) Heading South

• RES 4: $113.87 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $111.14 - High Jun 29
• RES 2: $108.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 1: $96.25/101.88 - 20-day EMA / High Jul 29 and key resistance
• PRICE: $89.14 @ 07:01 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: $87.55 - Low Aug 4
• SUP 2: $85.37 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $83.51 - 1.50 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing
• SUP 4: $81.34 - 1.618 projection of the Jun 8 - 22 - 29 price swing

WTI futures remain vulnerable and yesterday’s extension lower reinforces current bearish conditions. This follows a recent failure at resistance around the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at $99.43. Price has also breached support at $88.23, Jul 14 low and a key support. Key resistance has been defined at $101.88, Jul 29 high. A break of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.

GOLD TECHS: Approaching Trendline Resistance

• RES 4: $1847.9 - High Jun 22
• RES 3: $1825.1 - High Jun 30
• RES 2: $1802.1 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 1: $1795.0 - High Aug 4 and intraday high
• PRICE: $1789.1 @ 07:21 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: $1754.4 - Low Aug 3 and the 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1711.7/1681.0 - Low Jul 27 / 21
• SUP 3: $1680.5 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $1676.9 - Low Mar 8 2021

Gold maintains a firmer tone and yesterday, resumed its short-term uptrend. The yellow metal has breached the 50-day EMA and attention is on trendline resistance at $1802.1. A breach of the trendline would represent an important technical break and highlight a stronger reversal of the 5-month downtrend. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $1754.4 the Aug 3 low. Key support is unchanged at $1681.0.

SILVER TECHS: Bulls Pause For Breath

• RES 4: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 3: $21.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 1: $20.508 - High Aug 2
• PRICE: $20.218 @ 08:24 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: $19.062 - Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $18.146/18.000 - Low Jul 14 / Round number support
• SUP 3: $17.312 - 3.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 4: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020

Silver is consolidating as bulls pause for breath. The metal has recently pierced the 50-day EMA, at 20.339. The average represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break would strengthen the current bull cycle. This would open, $21.540, the Jun 27 high. On the downside, the broader downtrend remains intact and recent gains are still considered corrective. Key support has been defined at $18.146, the Jul 14 low and bear trigger.