MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Aug Trade Gap Widens; Q3 Deficit To Fall>

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - The UK trade gap expanded in the month of August, 

but a narrowing over the summer leaves net trade poised to exert a 

positive effect on gross domestic product in the third quarter. 

     The total deficit rose to Stg1.274 billion in the eighth month of 

the year, up from a revised Stg572 million in July, compared to the 

initially-reported July shortfall of Stg111 million. 

     Total exports rose by 1.1% to Stg55.075 billion in August, while 

imports jumped by 2.4% to Stg56.349 billion. 

     That means the deficit could balloon to Stg4.3 billion in September 

-- a gap not recorded in two years -- and leave the trade gap steady 

between the second and third quarters, suggesting that trade could 

positively influence third quarter GDP. 

     Over the second quarter of 2018, the shortfall was revised to 

Stg6.1 billion, from the Stg5.7 billion reported last month, but that 

revision was reflected in National Accounts released late last month. 

Net trade subtracted 0.6 percentage points from total growth of 0.4% in 

the second quarter. 

     The current-price deficit in goods widened to Stg11.195 billion in 

August, from a revised Stg10.387 billion gap in July. 

     Total goods imports rose by 3.1% in August to Stg41.790 billion, 

while exports increased by 1.4% to Stg30.595 billion. 

     Imports of medical products "spiked" in August, according to a 

National Statistics, in line with the increase recorded in the same 

month of previous years, and is likely due to shipments of flu jabs, 

rather than stockpiling ahead of Brexit. There was no evidence of an 

increase in imports of food products, the official added. 

     The trade gap in goods with the 27 other nations of the European 

Union fell to Stg6.976 billion in August from Stg7.245 billion in July. 

     The non-EU trade gap widened to Stg4.219 billion in August from 

Stg3.142 billion the previous month. 

     In price-adjusted terms, the trade gap swung to a deficit of Stg337 

million in August from a surplus of Stg291 million in July. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]