MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Australia Aug Retail Sales Up, Trend Slows

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's retail sales rose more than expected in August,

but the trend slowed slightly to the lowest rate since October last year,

suggesting household consumption will remain a key source of uncertainty for the

economy's growth outlook.

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Friday showed retail

sales rose 0.3% m/m in August, an outcome higher than MNI's median forecast for

a 0.2% rise. 

     In trend terms, however, retail sales slowed to 0.2% m/m from 0.3% in July

and also down from the 0.4% pace seen at the start of the year.

     The latest monthly gain was due to a part-rebound in the three categories

which fell in July. Household goods retailing rose 0.2% versus a 1.3% fall in

July. Clothing and footwear rose 0.8%, compared to a 2.1% decline, and

department stores rose 0.9% after a 1.8% fall the month before.

     In trend terms, household goods retailing was in negative for three

straight months, suggests this part of retail industry is suffering a direct

impact from slowing housing market conditions. 

     Below is table for retail turnover (current prices) for August:

                                               August                       July

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                   (M/M %, seasonally         (M/M %, seasonally

                                            adjusted)                  adjusted)

Retail Sales                                     +0.3          0.0 (no revision)

MNI Median                   +0.2 (range 0.0 to +0.5)

Retail Sales (Trend)                             +0.2          +0.3(no revision)

Food Retailing                                    0.0                       +0.3

Household Goods                                  +0.2                       -1.2

Clothing, Footwear etc                           +0.8                       -2.0

Department Stores                                +0.9                       -1.9

Other Retailing                                  +0.4                       +1.7

Cafes, Restaurants,

Takeaways                                        +0.7                       +0.6

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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